Since this thread started Bitcoin has seen a what, 50% ROI? I wonder what the OP did?
I think he said he was going to allocate whatever % of "Yes" votes he received to Bitcoin. Whether he followed through, I don't know. |
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here's the best long term hedged pair trade for you guys: long Bitcoin:short S&P.
edit: there's a very good chance you'll win on both ends of this trade.
I'm with you on this one Cypher, although I'm leveraged short on the S&P (as I suspect you might be too) so it's not really a perfect hedge for me. I'm hoping to win on both sides of the trade but we'll see, haven't quit my day job.... yet. |
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It is a good response but sounds kinda canned to any feature or service request.
I agree, sounds very cookie cutter. I would suggest sending a follow-up request but substitute Bitcoin with LTC or conch shells or anything and see if you get a similar response. Nice job on being proactive though. |
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I brought to the table counterexamples of your theory, which as I understand it was: an appreciating currency means difficulties for your production economic interests. My counterexample was Switzerland, 1970-2010. I specifically mentioned Nestle, watch industry, and biotech. August 2011 ZURICH—Global food maker Nestlé fell victim to the soaring Swiss franc, which pushed first-half sales down 13%. Profit was 4.7 billion francs, down 14% from 5.45 billion francs.
The franc, which has gained 24% against the euro and 32% against the dollar in the past year, has been an enormous drag on Swiss exporters. A strong currency hurts exporters because it means their prices are higher in overseas markets, making their products less competitive. Straight from the Wall St. Journal, about your "counterexample" Nestle. Now please stop talking, you're just embarrassing yourself. |
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I actually recommended a disabled guy with a limited government social income to use some of his last savings to buy 3 units from this guy. I hope you're joking. |
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48% of Americans believe another great depression is likely to happen in the next 12 months.
50% of Americans also believe that the sun revolves around the earth. your point? Source? |
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Yes, it sucks to lose your customers. Ok maybe your'e getting it. Yes there are difficulties in the Euro block economy of which Switzerland is a part. It's starting to come together. No, I don't see any evidence to believe that having a strong currency is the reason for these problems. Damn, so close. I provided you with examples, charts, quotes, articles.... If you don't see it I'm not going to waste anymore effort in trying to help you along. If you're willing to bring something to the table, some modicum of evidence to support your argument, then maybe we can continue. Otherwise I'm done. If you want to pay employees less, why not just lower their salary?  And with that, I'm out. |
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All your post have to do with trying to gain bitcoins from selling those things, why don't you just try selling those things at a better price, remember bitcoins is on a rally currently this means you can take a low price and make up the different in the rally, so while you may only get 30 bucks worth of bitcoins you can double into in the $60 over night.
$30 to $60 overnight? How would you do that without leverage? |
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Bitcoins are probably a great long-term 'investment', but... 1) Many people have good reason to not trust MtGox. 2) Go back to #1, it's a huge problem. ...
When we look at Bitcoin in terms of expected value, the odds are thus astronomical. The only reason Bitcoins don't trade for 100k USD right now is because...
Some of us remember May/June/July 2011, so it's a wise idea to sell some into big rallies, or BETTER yet, spend some BTC and/or help build the economy with useful projects. Haven't logged into my MtGox account in over a year. I've bought and sold many bitcoins in that time and find the alternatives to be quite good. I don't see how not trusting MtGox is a huge problem. I hope they lose more trust and marketshare. I hope they lose marketshare too, they control way too much of BTC's trade at the moment. Until that changes, I agree with Bit_Happy. |
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It's coming...there is a whole lot of greed in the air around here
"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" -Warren Buffett
Not a bad quote to live by, but if you're short, remember this one too: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes |
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To sell globally, yes you need to price your product competitively at its quality level. If you are selling the product for bitcoins, gold, francs, euros, whatever, you will need to find a price range to deal with your customer. As a company, if your assets become very valuable, how is this a bad thing? As a company, if you lose 50% of your customers, how is that a good thing? http://www.tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/exportsExports in Switzerland decreased to 15547.20 Million CHF in December of 2012 from 19830.20 Million CHF in November of 2012. That's a decline of 21.6%. Trade has been the key to prosperity in Switzerland. Exports accounts for 50% of its GDP. Swiss main export partners are Germany, United States, Italy and France. In other words, Euro, USD, Euro, and Euro. And you still can't see why the SNB is trying to peg to the Euro? I really don't know how I can make it any clearer. |
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If you look in the Marketplace, there are a few individuals who are very clearly conducting money laundering operations with Bitcoin. To the users of this forum's credit (and moderators) these are generally highlighted in big bold red letters that these are money laundering operations.
To answer your question, if I am aware that a transaction is being done to further illegal activities (like in the example above) then I would not conduct the transaction. For the most part, you just need to use common sense and intuition. Like the old saying, if it's too good to be true, it probably is. There will be cases where people will unknowingly conduct transactions with those who are engaging in illegal activities but as mentioned, this happens with all currencies.
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Speaking of bubbles....  |
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Oh, not at all! I would be very pleased. But my skepticism is not driven by my selfish desires. I just see some classic herd mentality going on.
There's certainly some herd mentality on Bitcointalk, however, that may be a micro-analysis. For the vast majority of the "herd" (ie. majority of the world population) Bitcoin is either unknown, a fraud/ponzi, nerd currency, etc. From a macro perspective, you could easily argue that those who are long Bitcoin are actually the contrarians. |
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Is the ongoing blizzard on the East Coast causing any lasting power outages? I'm wondering if anyone is excluded from trading because of it?
There are sure to be pockets of power outages with any sort of storm but I haven't heard of any significant outages, certainly nothing like the major northeastern outage in 2003. There are only 3 major grids in the US, with Texas being the only state with its own grid, so major regional outages are possible but are not very common. If it happens, you'll definitely hear about it. |
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Why do you think Germany is still in the Euro and continues to bail out countries like Greece? Germany is hardly known for their charitable nature. The reason is if they left the Euro and returned to the Deutsche Mark they would be screwed. Why? Because like China they're a heavy exporter and the strongest of the European union. If they left, the Euro would rapidly devalue (as countries default on sovereign debt) and the Deutsche Mark would take off like a rocket. Being a heavy exporter, this would cause a great amount of damage to their economy.
The problem with your logic here is that there is no person called "Germany". Rather, persons with acting on their own interests represent the nation of Germany. There are German citizens who can take advantage of Euro printing for their own interests. There may be others who would benefit from a return the Mark. There are probably others who are paid well for claiming that strong currency would hurt the economy, as you have claimed here.. generally those economists are paid by those who can benefit from monetary inflation. From the point of view of a citizen or private business owner, its hard to see how being robbed (having your currency devalued) is a good thing. Your claim that a heavy exporter would be hurt by having their assets go up in value is difficult for me to follow and has been beaten down several times in this forum. I'll give you one more example, the Swiss Franc. Why did the Swiss National Bank peg to the Euro if a highly overvalued currency is a good thing for an economy? In Sept 2011: The Swiss National Bank in effect devalued the franc, pledging to buy "unlimited quantities" of foreign currencies to force down its value. The SNB warned that it would no longer allow one Swiss franc to be worth more than €0.83 – equivalent to SFr1.20 to the euro – having watched the two currencies move closer to parity as Switzerland became a "safe haven" from the ravages of the eurozone crisis. The SNB pledged to enforce a "substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc", adding that it might move to an even lower exchange rate against the euro if needed.
"The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development," said Switzerland's central bank. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/06/switzerland-pegs-swiss-franc-euroIt's a global economy. To SELL globally, you need to have buyers in other currencies be able to afford your product. If the price of your product skyrockets (currency appreciation), it becomes more expensive to your buyers (importers) and thus, they will buy less. This is basic economics. If this was "beaten down" several times on this forum, then by all means, post some examples where an overvalued currency is good in the long-term for a country that conducts heavily in international trade. My examples are above, I'll wait for yours. |
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I still believe Mt.Gox is the single largest threat to Bitcoin. They claim to do 80% of all Bitcoin trade and I feel that number is plausible. To have a single, privately-owned entity control that percentage of trade is very disturbing. Granted the transition away from Mt.Gox is happening every day but until their market share is spread out to a much higher degree, Bitcoin remains in a precarious situation. While it's correct that Mt.Gox =/= Bitcoin, you cannot deny or ignore its influence.
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i have like 1/2 a pack or something like that. I used the first half to make paper wallets and they turned out really nice.
Let me know if you're interest in selling your leftovers. |
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