Looks like the breakout point is very near.
Too low volume for bulls. If upside breakout will happen it will form another bigger triangle like it was in 14th march. Though the 3.7 - 4.6 has too massive support for healthy correction. I think market is tired from speculation and expects some stagnation. Also there was no healthy correction from 7.22 high for good high-volume rally. Price went to tie break. The correction was healthy with high volume, indicating selling climax. That was also evident in the OBV which wen to the same level as the November low (even though price stayed relatively high, an indication that a good rally from here can send it past $7.2). |
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Well, theres a rally, and a crash... All I'm seeing is continued stagnation.
Yup, never been this flat for this many weeks. Statistically, a period of major volatility should follow. |
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It boggles my mind that people stoners still think it's just stoners buying Bitcoin when we have bidwalls on MtGox of $190k USD.
FTFY. Hard to know the direct economic impact of SR, but the publicity from it has been tremendous. |
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I sense an incoming rally.
with your psychic powers? the rally has been happening for awhile now... i'm expecting it to top off soon actually. the push to $4.95 and then subsequent retracing back to the support at $4.84 is kind of scary. scary with all that bid on book? lol, you sissy. |
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For me, yet another confirmation that price is going up.
Not sure why you would think that more hashing occurring might lead to the exchange rate rising. That isn't an uncommon belief among miners, I just don't know the reason why. The data points to mining activity only lagging the exchange rate moves. For the most part, price has been the main driver and the lead indicator. But there were a couple of occasions when hash rate led the price. The first was when difficulty was rising before bitcoin had a price, before there was an exchange. The second was between March and April 2011. Price topped at $1.10 and then fell to ~$0.60. Hash rate fell and difficulty re-adjusted downwards for the first time after price topped. But if you look closely, hash rate started rising before price bounced upwards from $0.60 (see charts in my sig). Chicken-and-egg arguments can never be definitively settled. But even as a lagging indicator, difficulty should confirm the price trend. Since the bottom at $2, and through the correction from $7.2, the rising difficulty is strongly confirming an upward trend. |
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And I agree with you that it is a good indicator.
What exactly would that indicate (other than the level of hashing occurring)? Demand. 1.6 million is only 200k off the 1.8 million all-time-high. For me, yet another confirmation that price is going up. |
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Weekend rally I think. Downtrend on the weekly chart is already being broken.
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Well, if he is indeed forcing the market to go where it doesn't naturally want to go then the aftermath could be brutal especially if that direction is down. There was probably a large group of people who panic bought because of that wall at 4.6 instead of waiting for a lower price, along a different group, who were otherwise selling or would have sold in the mid 4s but changed their mind because of the wall. So, if that wall disappears, in theory, you have an even greater supply of bitcoins wanting to get out from the additional remorseful buyers and natural sellers whose sole reason for owning bitcoin was that wall. From a real market perspective, the FED manipulated the US markets by providing cheap credit after the dot com bubble popped and bottomed in 2003. For 5 years the market artificially rallied, but in end, because the rally was based on unsustainable manipulation and people who were buying solely because the the now famous Greenspan put (think of the bitcoin wall), the market crashed in 2008 all the way down to where it was before and lower in half the time as the previous crash. And, as many of you are aware of, the FED is doing the exact same thing again. Rinse and repeat. I wonder what will happen this time around  The bitcoin market does not have a "natural" direction - the market is determined by bids and asks. When there's more bids than asks, the direction is up. We can see from the volume that there hasn't been much buying since the bid wall went up. So there probably won't be much selling even if it is removed. We saw that when the wall at $2.2 went up in November, and was then removed, the market bottomed at $1.95 because the sellers were already exhausted at $2.8-$3.0. We can look at the recent selling volume now and see that it was mostly maxed out around $5-$5.5 with the rest happening below that. That's confirmed by looking at the OBV (On Balance Volume), which also lined up almost perfectly with the November low. As for the Fed, its accurate to call that manipulation of the market because you have one entity which controls the printing press (or the digital ledger, more accurately) and can assign themselves an arbitrary number of USD. But nobody can do that with bitcoin. |
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I concur with the others. Don't allow people to place orders if they don't have the funds to back them.
What next, executing unfunded orders too?
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If the math in Bitcoinica Helper is correct, the liquidation price is 4.4913.
bid - ((net_value - maintenance)/(amount + btc)) =
4.75225 - ((475.07 - 189.18)/(982.21337 + 113.21337))
each amount needs to be converted to USD at the base price or the bid/ask price. The bitcoinica helper shows the liquidation price based on the current BTC/USD price (bid, ask, weighted?, I'm not sure) - however, it's not a constant as it doesn't project falling BTC value in the Currency account (which means a falling margin balance) In practical usage, the liquidation price on a long position will rise as the bid continues to fall according to the amount of BTC vs USD in the currency account, accentuating the drawdown dramatically. The formula above is for a long position, and it is constant. When I first saw the formula, I also thought it would change with the BTC price. But it is constant since the net_value changes proportionally with the bid price. The units/dimensions (BTC vs USD) are also consistent. The bid has dimension (USD / BTC) and so does the quantity ((net_value - maintenance)/(amount + btc)), therefore it can be subtracted from the bid. Thus the liquidation price is also of dimension (USD / BTC). |
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Bravo.
Looking pretty long (with plenty of dry powder) on bitcoinica.
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I believe bitcoinica hedges with market orders on MtGox. Do limit orders on bitcoinica ever appear as a bid/ask on MtGox?
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dont kid yourself... you think it wasn't a good move?
he was hoping it would get sold into... but ya, not gana happen
Well, the thing is, whoever this person is, they are either a bear that doesn't know what they are doing, or they are a bull that is being quite blatant. While the former is funny, the latter makes me wonder just who the hell it is... Its a bullish, aggressive market-maker who already has a significant amount of coin. The wall is there to inspire buyers and push the price higher. I'm sure he has much more cash that's not in the bids, and would probably put another wall up if this one is sold into (as he did back in November. a big seller sold into the wall two times iirc, and put back up immediately after each time). The fact that we see the wall go up now, to me indicates that after the drop from $7, this market-maker probably accumulated a lot of the coins around $5.5, then around $4.5-$4.75 (see the hot spots on https://ferroh.com/chart?t=180d). So he needs to push the price back up, above his average cost per coin, to stay profitable. He's very well funded, probably having (in addition to substantial coin, at the moment) more cash than the market has coins. After seeing how it played out in November, he'll probably be successful. Little reason to suspect this is a bluff bid where he's simultaneously unloading coins with asks at $4.75-$5.0. I think he'll push it to over $5.5, but we might see some resistance if he starts trying to unload above $6. More likely he'll wait until higher. A push from here is enough to send the market over $7.2. |
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the last time we had a wall of this size and determination was at $2. i was a part of that. i think we have a new bottom.
I thought the wall at $2 was much bigger? like 4x as many BTC and 2x as many $s not that i remember. it was only around $130K. correct me if i'm wrong. Ive seen a pic of the wall at $2 somewhere... The wall at $2.2 was the first thing I thought of when I saw this new wall at $4.6. It was 50k BTC. It was removed overnight, but price only dropped to $1.949 (iirc) on weak selling volume. It was back up the following day. |
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The digital detective: Mikko Hypponen's war on malware is escalatingSupposedly in the April 2012 issue "This article was taken from the April 2012 issue of Wired magazine." On page 2: "This guy is selling UK and European dumps [the personal information contained on the magnetic strip of a credit card]," Hypponen says, scrolling down the page and reading the small ads. "Here are 'Bank accounts from Asia, EU... high valid rate', and 'Bank accounts from the UK, Germany, Russia all obtained with SpyEye'." He reaches an advertisement for a botnet: "Here we are: 'Denial of service: standard host or domain taken down one hundred bucks per day. Payment: Western Union, MoneyGram, Bitcoin."
According to Hypponen, the cost of a botnet depends on the territory -- North American and European computers are most valuable; at the other end of the spectrum are the Russian and Chinese. He continues reading the list, pausing at an advert for an available hired assassin. "Former French Foreign Legion. No fish too big no job too small". Potential clients are advised that the cost of the service is $20,000 (£12,779), to be paid in Bitcoin, and that they will be billed for travel expenses.
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does this look like inflation?  It looks like we could be at the bottom of the deflationary cycle (which has been ongoing for over 10 years now, according to your chart). Not to say that we are, but could be. OR, you think $DXY is going to see new highs? |
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