Sell just enough to take one year vacation somewhere without internet. Then reassess.
Lol  Come back...  It's 2443$ $10k more like... |
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Evening in with a bucket of popcorn watching the Mt Gox ticker...
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The market is plain silly currently. It either going to have a significant correction and consolidation at some level before the next rally, or just go into full throttle bubble mode. I'd prefer the former alternative but it's not up to me.
Quite unnerving, really. If there has to be a bubble, I'll use it to strengthen my position, but I'd rather have some sort of orderly growth than a bubble.
More likely than not, things will slow down tomorrow through Sunday. Would be good to catch some breath. Then I imagine everyone will be piling in to beat $100 next week. |
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We just might.... Craziness. I just watched China shoot up from 415 to 440 CNY. PANIC BUY PANIC BUY PANIC BUY  |
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IMO, the current destination is still very much worth it Check the last few pages of the Wall Observer thread... there are some big players coming in and dropping $1+ million to get into BTC, at $60+ a pop. |
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The lowest possible floor is IMO over $55 now. So I wouldn't sweat too much -- most likely we'll be flirting with $100 soon.
That too much optimism. How am I supposed to get 20$ dollar coins with people like you around? You won't get $20 coins. You can either get on the train at $55 - $65, or choose a different destination. |
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I've now taken to a diet consisting solely of curry and coffee.
I have high hopes for Bitcoin.
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I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol) This must mean we are in a bubble ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names. I don't think the analogy works with bitcoin. Our goal has been to push adoption in order to push main stream acceptance and usage. I find it strange that all of a sudden we are trying to act shocked, SHOCKED, that people we talk to about bitcoin continuously start to show interest in bitcoins. People talking about bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. People being interested in bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. It's a sign that bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to be doing. My problem with that theory is that much of the recent gains are due to a recent rash of good news. What happens when there is bad news? Granted, the good news is real news, but it's been decidedly pro-Bitcoin for weeks. We are due some bad news, like a major exchange hack. We are, IMHO, beyond a price point that is justifiable with the current size of the actual bitcoin economic activity alone. Hype leads to speculative bubbles. We all know this. What we don't know is how long we can ride it before sentiment turns sour. What happens to the European banking panic when the asinine deposit tax proposal in Cyprus goes down in flames? Or there is a compromise that doesn't spell the worst? The sudden influx of Euro denominated wealth cannot be maintained. Once the pool of risk adverse Europeans (an irony, I know) has all moved the greater part of their deposits into Bitcoin (or gold/silver/whatever) who is going to be left to support the bid wall? Can that bid wall be supported by Argentines and Iranians evading capital controls? I doubt it. That's what Bitcoin is good for, but it doesn't really matter so much what the exchange price actually is if Bitcoin is only being used as a workaround for a bottleneck in the fiat currency system. I really can't imagine worse news happening than the fork, and we made it through just fine. I think that event was actually a fairly unsung hero in the recent rises past $50. It really boosted confidence in the system. The rest of your post comes down to a pretty philosophical difference that we, ultimately, won't be able to answer  If the market was 100% speculation, then yea, we'd be in trouble no doubt. BUT the first step of getting people to use bitcoin is getting them to have a bitcoin. If 1,000 speculators buy 1,000 btc each to "make a profit" with there is a chance that a good number of them will actually come across a scenario where using BTC instead of other means is actually beneficial. This will push adoption rates up. Victory. So even if your grandma buys a bitcoin with the initial purpose of flipping it, I would hope you'd explain to her all the other benefits of holding the coin at the same time. Maybe she'll come around. If we get enough Argentines and Iranians to use BTC to get around capital controls or the fiat bottleneck, a lot of them will eventually see the benefit and just use BTC directly. I am also of the opinion that our current price is way, way, way to low and is held low by speculators. Bitcoin is a powerful financial tool in a wide variety of ways and people will continue to realize it in ever growing numbers. ^ This. One week ago we had awful news -- how can people have such short memories? There's hardly been a "rash of good news". This is just the beginning of big players getting on board. The FinCEN regulations will accelerate that as virtual currencies move from the fringe. We're not in a bubble; we're at the foot of a mountain looking up. Certainly, we will go down a little in order to go up again, but prepare for the long climb ahead -- don't waste your energy in the foothills. The Cyprus haircut looks like it won't happen after all, but it has a magnifying effect of people looking for safe havens for their assets... across the whole of Europe. However I think the result from this is more speculative than real right now. |
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You both make a fair point, but I'm sure the cycle of spike followed by crash to a higher low will recur several times on the way up. If I felt confident picking the tops I'm sure there'd be a nice profit to be made...
When you're looking at a market expanding from zero to  , it's not worth it. Each coin you potentially buy back at a higher price is magnifying reductions in your total realised profit when you want to cash out. |
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Possible head and shoulders 'top' formation ? It's difficult to make anything from such a short time period, but it does look like one forming. I would bet more on a small scale correction rather than reversal. I hope so... my "buy" finger is itchy. |
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Yes, the guy who bought a pizza for 10,000 BTC can now buy a pizza store. Careful first one(s) out get the best prices. I think it's a natural market progression. People who buy in low will sell higher. People who buy in high will sell even higher. Sure, the pace of acceleration may lessen eventually, but it doesn't have to be a bubble. If bitcoin has a future as a currency, it can simply just continue to appreciate. |
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I think this is exactly why there is so much more mileage in BTC yet.
My guess is that a lot of the expansion this week is from the Reddit effect, and with a few institutional investors beginning to test the water (a few big buys).
It's just beginning to be a blip on the radar for mainstream investors; most haven't heard of it yet, and others are intent to research slowly.
The real explosion is still to come.
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My guess: $350 high, some time in May.
~$300 consolidation around the end of May, redoubling for more gains.
The real "peak" (as opposed to a foothill) will be some time later... 2015-18
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^ this. Many more hands now too.
Look at the chain-fork sell-off. Blink and you miss it.
Most people will now have their finger on the "buy" button when the alarms ring.
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The lowest possible floor is IMO over $55 now. So I wouldn't sweat too much -- most likely we'll be flirting with $100 soon.
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https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Contracts . Obviously they'd need to code a client app -- years of R&D but worth considering. Using advanced electronic payment methods isn't totally out of character for the utility companies. For example, some power companies are already installing 'automated' reporting meters in some countries -- e.g. electricity meters that wirelessly report your usage to the company.
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Wild Speculative Theory #1 for the downtrend: Some of those with loads on the Bid side see that with no new money coming in today (Japanese bank holiday) and with it not costing much to drive the price down, are seeing if the market can be manipulated down enough to make their big buy cheaper than it was looking yesterday. WST #2: Bitcoin reached the highest it ever got to yesterday and this is the beginning of the long and terminal plummet to zero  PS. 6.5 hours into the day and volume is already over $1m usd! (we were over $6m yesterday making it 3rd ATH) Dude, it's a blip. Not a "downtrend". |
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http://bitcoinity.org/markets?currency=USD&exchange=mtgox works OK. Price in the short-term always goes up and down. The only reason to watch closely is to buy in more at a better price. The price goes down, as that is what everyone is waiting for to buy in again. It's a bull's market -- this time next week it will be up. Hold or buy, but don't think about selling unless you need the US$...
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I am still not getting my withdrawal
Don't worry, it is easy to prove publicly whether withdrawals have been sent or not. It is a bank holiday in Japan today, so it might be slow for them to process. |
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Focus on some of the advanced technical implications that could secure payment. For example, some of BitCoin's contract features could be used by power companies.
I think also power companies would be interested in looking at how volatility in Bitcoin could be used to hedge against volatility in fossil fuel prices.
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