@yefi , first we need to break 8800/8900 , there are 3 resistance lines and then we have descending line higher around 9500.
RU kidding ? Now that Mr Xi has said the "real" currency war is over crypto and not $USD, no amount of resistance is going to prevent a skyrocketing to the upside. Market just blasted through $8400 where it was trying to correct but didn't get a chance. ....look, just hit 8700. nearly at 9. Problem is too much demand and not enough coins to satisfy that demand. |
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stock to flow That stock to flow is predicting a valuation of $100k by late spring 2020.  That isn't very far away. |
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so I do think I made a mistake if thats the case ... again excuse me.
Ok, I also apologise for any adverse sentiment in that case and will remove my dismissive post of you above. Very gracious of you. |
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Heading towards $4k around October 2020. Forget the "halfing". It was priced in early - 1 year early - and profits got taken in the 12k "fakeout". That's what bitcoin does folks - what you're not expecting. New ATH around 2023, 2024, just at long term log charts have been predicting. Time between peaks increasing as marketcap increases.  |
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@toknormal - That chart has been posted loads of times before. It has us at $3,000 in October 2019.
So you have us hitting the halving at what, $4,000?
Come on, man!
Just wait & see. The cycle's not played itself out yet. I disagree with your chart. I think $100,000 per coin by late 2021. Either way though, I’m 33, I can wait until 2023-24 for unworldly life changing money, no problem. Just look at the run on the dollar at the moment. For that kind of BTC price in such a short time, the dollar has to WEAKEN, not strengthen. In fact all currencies do. In fact the reverse is happening and the fiat system is coping fine despite all the mayhem and work debt bubble. There's no sign of that trend changing anytime soon. Meantime, bitcoin now has more of a reputation for losing people money than anything else. I realise it isn't like that for old timers but for the thousands that arrived during the last 2 years it has. 2024-5 for the next. ATH. 3k by the end of November 2019. |
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@toknormal - That chart has been posted loads of times before. It has us at $3,000 in October 2019.
So you have us hitting the halving at what, $4,000?
Come on, man!
Just wait & see. The cycle's not played itself out yet. |
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All you folks got far too little patience expecting new highs around the corner. That spike that happened in December 2017 - chances like that don't come around like buses. That is gone for a long long time. This chart here has about the right timeframe. Although the peak of each high is exponentially higher, the time between such surges gets longer and longer. We're looking at 2021-2022 to recapture 20-20k again and 2023-4 for new highs.  |
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...$1,800 are within realms of reason remain quite fantasylandia scenarios, and you have not been out of breadths when engaging in fantasylandia practice, especially given your track record of stupid-ass overly bearish BTC predictions (that did not come to fruition, need I say?).
With the amount you wrote there I must conclude it's yourself you're trying to convince, not me. |
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The price has never had that kind of violent crash this close to a block reward halving & you’re well aware of it.
Market makers take the price where they want it to go. They give 2fs about "reward halving" or "what happened last time". It probably got priced in anyway. That may have been what the unexpected 400% skyrocketing earlier this year was all about - front running the halving. Now profits are going to be taken. |
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Laff all you like.
Bitcoin is totally capable of it. Anyone who's been in this market more than a few years has been confounded enough times to know it. That spring rally happened far too soon & too fast and there will be a price to pay.
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Dropping out of the channel now on dollar strength and liquidity crisis. Support around $7500 or $5200 levels. Failing that a retest of $1800 if we still have to reach capitulation from the 2017 bubble.  |
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All the long range log charts have Oct-Nov as the capitulation phase of the 2017 bubble. Some predicting as low as $1800.
New bull market to start in January 2020 off the lows.
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But for the record, I'll keep all altcoin talk at bay as long as I am here on this thread. Well you shouldn't. "Altcoin talk" is bitcoin talk and vica versa. The idea that bitcoin is "separated off" from altcoins is deluded. It's like discussing clouds as distinct from "weather". |
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10 x unrealised profits since 2014. You're only making my point for me. "Getting in in 2014" isn't currently an investing option. |
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People do forget that most of the current alt are scams and frauds so dont see point of mentioning it at all.
Actually all the scams have now been weeded out - at least from the top 30 or so rankings, bar 2 or 3 floaters. Also BTC is at one of its dominance peaks so we're staring down the face of the next altcoin "munch" into BTC's dominance. The more time goes on, the less distinction there is between the "first" and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc. Also BTC has planted is flag where utility "isn't" which means it's zip-all use for actual everyday use. Fine if you want to park it till retirement but forget anything else. (Including LN off-chain "coin loss" service). Not many people made money by sitting on their BTC and keeping it warm to the exclusion of anything else and they're gonna make even less from now on. I expect dominance to stabilise around 20%-30% eventually (if not less) as utility starts to dominate long term store of value in the crypto ecosystem.  |
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Don't be alarmed WOWatchers.  This is a falling wedge. A Bullish pattern.A falling wedge has a descending base, not a horizontal one. That's descending triangles.... a beariish pattern. |
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Halfway through 2021 before we even see 10k again according to this analysis. Just looking at the cycles.  Ready to make a bet on it ? I bet NO at 99%. Second that. 99.999% You haven't even had time to watch it. Look at the cycle again. That last pump sticks out like a sore thumb. Markets simply don't do that naturally. See what happens with Bitfinex/Tether on Monday. That may put this whole pump in a very different context. ? If there is an escrow here for the bet. 1 BTC ? wtf has betting got to do with any of this ? You think just because your hopium's strong the appraisal's wrong ? The points are well made - in particular that rally was one of the more "engineered" moves bitcoin has ever made so the guy is reasonable in looking at the longer term picture. You have a pretty strong conviction there toknormal, you should be willing to put some kind of wager on it. Doesn't have to be 1BTC... could even be a lot smaller, such as .0001BTC or something like that... Might give you a little bit of credibility if you would back up your constant ongoing bearish predictions that never really tend to come true. Why ? There are plenty of both bullish and bearish opinions posted here all day long. I don't see calls for those views to be collateralised. People just don't like hearing well founded bearish opinions, that's all. To the extent that members can largely bet their views in the market, I agree that the vast majority of the times whatever they do in the market will cover their proclamations, and in that regard, a large number of members here are not making predictions with such outrageously certain numbers as you. Get the fuck out of here. 99% You are full of shit, and not willing to put even a small bet on your claim about something that supposedly in your mind to be so goddamened clear and certain. In other words, I don't believe you for a minute, and you don't seem to believe it, either. [edited out]
I'm happy with your prediction, so let's do a bet. 1 BTC.
If you have really conviction, it should not be a problem. He (toknormal) does not have any conviction. He is full of shit. You don't even need to bet that much in order to prove his lack of conviction. You could bet .00001BTC, and he still will not do it because he does not believe what he had bet. At minimum, he is a fucking 1) pussy 2) troll/shill and 3) liar. Stop being such a defensive drama queen. It's one view. You're at liberty to dismiss it without throwing hissy fits and asking for "bets". |
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Halfway through 2021 before we even see 10k again according to this analysis. Just looking at the cycles. Ready to make a bet on it ? I bet NO at 99%. Second that. 99.999% You haven't even had time to watch it. Look at the cycle again. That last pump sticks out like a sore thumb. Markets simply don't do that naturally. See what happens with Bitfinex/Tether on Monday. That may put this whole pump in a very different context. ? If there is an escrow here for the bet. 1 BTC ? wtf has betting got to do with any of this ? You think just because your hopium's strong the appraisal's wrong ? The points are well made - in particular that rally was one of the more "engineered" moves bitcoin has ever made so the guy is reasonable in looking at the longer term picture. You have a pretty strong conviction there toknormal, you should be willing to put some kind of wager on it. Doesn't have to be 1BTC... could even be a lot smaller, such as .0001BTC or something like that... Might give you a little bit of credibility if you would back up your constant ongoing bearish predictions that never really tend to come true. Why ? There are plenty of both bullish and bearish opinions posted here all day long. I don't see calls for those views to be collateralised. People just don't like hearing well founded bearish opinions, that's all. |
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Halfway through 2021 before we even see 10k again according to this analysis. Just looking at the cycles. Ready to make a bet on it ? I bet NO at 99%. Second that. 99.999% You haven't even had time to watch it. Look at the cycle again. That last pump sticks out like a sore thumb. Markets simply don't do that naturally. See what happens with Bitfinex/Tether on Monday. That may put this whole pump in a very different context. ? If there is an escrow here for the bet. 1 BTC ? wtf has betting got to do with any of this ? You think just because your hopium's strong the appraisal's wrong ? The points are well made - in particular that rally was one of the more "engineered" moves bitcoin has ever made so the guy is reasonable in looking at the longer term picture. |
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Halfway through 2021 before we even see 10k again according to this analysis. Just looking at the cycles. Ready to make a bet on it ? I bet NO at 99%. Second that. 99.999% You haven't even had time to watch it. Look at the cycle again. That last pump sticks out like a sore thumb. Markets simply don't do that naturally. See what happens with Bitfinex/Tether on Monday. That may put this whole pump in a very different context. |
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