I don't know if there's anything special about it.  It's basically a hosted wallet, like MtGox or any other.  I guess what's special about it is that Just-Dice has an account there, and credits your account instantly if you transfer funds to it using the internal (to email) transfer.

Linode hosted?  Or just the DNS?  What could possibly go wrong?

Why's that funny?

I plan on adding it.

I just thought I'd answer this again now the numbers have changed:



The site is now up around 1.46% of total wagered.  46% more than expected.

Variance.

I've no idea why.  Contact me on skype (dooglus) or google talk (dooglus@gmail.com) and I'm sure we can work it out.  So far you've given me nothing to go on at all - I'd need the userid, or some of the secret 64 (64, right?  not 76) characters.  Or something at least.

A dead man's switch is something that automatically sends codes to access the cold storage to a designated 3rd party.  I'm trying to find a suitable 3rd party.

I'm asking to find out who's willing.  Like how theymos asked random forum users "who will hold forum funds for me?".

Doesn't mean I'm going to pick the first person to respond.

When I say "arguing" I don't mean in the door-slamming plate-throwing way.  I like a good argument.

And if you think I'm always friendly here then you probably didn't see this thread.  That guy got me pissed.

Sorry for the downtime.  I caught a few hours' sleep and it looks like the server took a nap too.  It has happened twice before, and I don't know what triggers it.

I don't have crocodile mitigation plans in effect yet, other than staying well away from crocodiles (and, more importantly chainsaws, which I would estimate to be the biggest threat to my life at the moment) until I have it set up.

Do I have a volunteer to be the recipient of my dead-man-switch instructions in the event that Deb and I both die at the same time?

I was sleeping...  That's something awesome, but not related to the site.

I'm wondering what to do when people contact support with things like:


If I reset two-factor-auth codes, what use is two-factor-auth?

I can ask him to sign the address he deposited from, but a hacker in his computer could maybe do that.

Imagine you lost your phone.  How would you prove you were you?

Then imagine your account got hacked.  Would the hacker be able to make the same proof?

Two problems:

1) I don't really understand your question.  Are you asking who has won the most BTC (ignoring losses), the most profit, the most bets, or the biggest single bet?

2) I don't really know any of the answers.  I have a database with 11 million rows in it (one per bet) which bogs the server down when I query it.  I need to have the server keep a separate note of interesting statistics.


It wasn't down, it was just very very busily stuck in an apparently endless loop.  Too busy to talk to you lot, apparently.

I need to try to work out why it does that, but without knowing how to trigger it, it's hard!

Back now, anyway.  Thanks for letting me know it was having trouble.

You mean how you can see the stats updating live on the chat tab now?

Are you sure about that?  I guess the value won't go down, but the returns will do.  If BTC goes up massively then we can expect turnover to drop.  You can always cash out though and get your original coins back (plus or minus whatever you won or lost).


I just ran some numbers now that I've got the bets in a database I can query more easily:


As you can see, the wagered-per-day is pretty up and down.  Let's pessimistically say it's averaging 2.5k per day, with a 15k investment pool.  That's an expected return of 0.17% per day, or 5% per month?


Thanks, but I don't understand that part.  I didn't really do anything other than argue about probability theory on here for a year, and accidentally find myself with almost 2k BTC on my hands when WBX went tits up.  I didn't give it back to the WBX clients to "build my rep"; I gave it back because it wasn't mine... 

"everyone"?  I saw one or two people in the chat who seemed to think it clever to take advantage of the 0.0001 bonus or whatever it is.  Claim it 100 times and you have what, less than a dollar?  It doesn't seem worth it to me, and it's only going to spoil things for everyone in the long run.

The bonus is so you can try the site out, not so you can rip them off.

If the level of investment stays around 14k BTC and the rate of wagering stays around 21k BTC/week then the expected profit is 1.5% per week, yes, since every invested coin is "matched" by 1.5 BTC of wagers.

The current total wagered is 38k BTC and so the expected profits are 380 BTC.  Actual profits are 230 BTC.  That's variance.  Yesterday the profit was up around 350 BTC for a while after Vinka bet and lost 100 BTC in a single bet.  He then proceeded to bet 100 BTC another 12 or 13 times, winning 10 BTC each time, and taking the site profits back down around 250 BTC.

I wouldn't be surprised to see months where the house makes a loss, and other months where the house does much better than expected.  Even satoshidice has losing months, and they have a bigger house edge and bigger volume.

Whichever way it goes, someone's not going to be happy.  Either the players will be saying "the game is rigged", or the investors will be wondering why the profits aren't as high as expected.

tl;dr variance

In case anyone's worried about the counter-party risk that Just-Dice is taking on in trusting inputs.io deposits to be valid, we've frozen the balance in TF's account (the 580 BTC or whatever he had after his crazy bets of a few days ago) as collateral.  That allows us to eliminate the counter-party risk entirely.  With the only caveat being that his frozen coins are invested on the site, and so could be lost if we're particularly unlucky.

A few days ago I received and replied to a PM and thought I should post my reply here too so at least I can say "I said that might happen" if the nightmare scenario happens:


Max profit is currently rounded to 2 decimal places.  That's not an issue until 99% of the bank has already been lost, but then becomes an issue.  We don't have infinite divisibility of bitcoins either.  Player wins are rounded down to nearest satoshi.

But given your (invalid!) assumptions, you're right.  You can't lose. 

Even given your assumptions, you can theoretically lose 99% of your investment, as follows:

We offer a 98% chance of winning 1.020408% of your bet.  Bet 10k BTC to win 102.0408 BTC.

Someone with 10k BTC they don't mind losing can take 102 BTC out of the bank with only a 1-in-50 chance of losing their 10k.  In testing I've seen that 98% bet win 100 times in a row, and it has quite a damaging effect on the bankroll!

Now in reality, who has 10k that they're willing to risk on a negative expectation bet, and is prepared to do it 100 times in a row, knowing it's very likely they'll lose more than they win?  I wager "nobody".  And if they do, will they know when to stop?  I expect they would continue until they lost at least once.

Losing 99% of your investment isn't much different than losing 100% of it, in terms of how that feels.  So theoretical questions of infinitely divisible bitcoins and granularity of max-profit calculation aren't really all that interesting.

In the end, it's a gamble, and the odds are in the investors' favour.

I hope that answers your question.  And doesn't scare you too much!

Do you mind if I post this in the thread?  I think all investors should get a chance to be scared by it.  So they consider the risks, and don't say "I didn't realise that could happen!"

Stating flat out that it wasn't mine, yes.

Done.  Good point.

This is an alternative deposit (and soon withdrawal) method, not a replacement.  It's a solution for people who don't want to wait for their deposit to confirm.

Each run of 3 is about a 1 in a 1000 chance.

The site's back up.  I thought I had fixed the issue with the server freezing when I go to bed, but apparently not.