This is a red flag for me and not what serious and sustainable betting is about. You started with 0.01 bets and then suddenly it is 0.05 to recover losses, looks very martingale-ish. And I wouldn't recommend big bets on totals as well, there just isn't that much value to be found in over/under markets in football, but this is debatable.


Do you have some model to predict these win rates ? 79% is pretty precise and doesn't look like a number you just put here from the top of your head - you would have said 80% then

Hmm, call me ignorant, but there were already robots on Mars who collected some data etc., no ?

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I found another bookie offereing odds for human Mars Mission:


Source: https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/current-events/

If I would have to bet, I would take the field for @101. There will possibly be some joint venture from different countries and that "company" will have some other name.

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The bookie from which I posted the first screenshot has a promotion running, the "Porsche 911 Betcup". All you have to do is to place a bet every day and be the last user standing to do so. If you are, you will win a Porsche 911 worth 100k Euro. Sounds good, huh ? The promo started 12 years ago and is still running There are until now 26 users who placed a bet every day for over 12 years and this promo doesn't look to be over soon:


Source: https://www.bet-at-home.com/en/promotion/betcup

By the time the winner is determined, the Porsche will already be an oldtimer.

/offtopic

Won't be even close In the leaderboard I still have 10 correct picks, so Juve isn't added yet. From those 3 leaders at least one will have picked Juve, so winner has 13/15 this weekend, which was kind of expected with a lots of low-ish odds and not that many surprises. Lots of users will also have 12/15, so this is probably the most "successful" MM ever for 3-way selections.

Edit: And I am waiting for the day, when someone has 15/15 and won't show up in the leaderboard until the very end and shatters a lot of dreams.

This was a fast one, not even a third break. Gratz@SteamTyme and gratz @Hhampuz for 2nd place and also for your birthday, which is today, if I understood correctly

Rankings after 5/8 tournaments played:



Best finish for @jayce ever with his 6th place today.
@arallmuus is on a streak regarding point finishes, currently at 8 and counting. @figmentofmyass sits at 7.

The lottery pool has passed the 20k threshold today and we have 3 prizes á 6,733 chips atm. If the number of participants remains stable, we should pass the 30k and have 4 prizes á 7,5k+ then in the end.

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That sometimes looked like he/you was on tilt Fascinating to witness, when I am more of a tight player.

Free bets, promos, deposit bonus was already mentioned in the other thread I think. I will give you an example, how you could cheat the Multimaster Promo with heavy multi-accounting:


Source: https://sportsbet.io/promotions/weekend-multi-master

You have 15³ = 3375 different combinations, minimum stake 0.1 mBTC, so total stake 337.5 mBTC. But you will win 3000 mBTC every weekend (if no one else does the same)

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Take 100% first deposit bonus. You deposit 100,- and get 100,- on top. You do this with multiple accounts and always place opposite bets on these accounts. The one account plays "over", the other "under". One account will be empty, but the other has double the amount. Onto the next account. Rinse and repeat, until rollover requirement is done and you can withdraw more than you deposited into all these accounts.

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Some bookies don't want you at their site no more. My account at Sportsbet is limited to ridiculously low amounts, I have no price boost anymore, even my max bet button is gone. They want to get rid of me and achieve that by making my account unusable. If multi-accounting was allowed, they couldn't get rid of me (or not that easy), since I could just open new accounts all the time. This is industry standard and they have all the right to do it. I am ok with it, though it's a bit annoying always I must confess, but nothing I can do.

Crazy match. Henan was already 2-0 up early second half and it didn't look too good, but Jiangsu have the way better bench and scored 4 unanswered then. 3-4 FT.

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In general, and not only for CSL, I would recommend to look for better odds inplay with football, since from my experience, you will get them like 90% of the time. You will miss out on a few good pre-match bets, but they way better odds you get inplay will easily make up for it. Maybe split your stakes 50/50 for pre-match/inplay and test a bit.

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This HC parlay is lost already unfortunately. The pitch was more like a swimming pool and Beijing got an early red card on top. They managed to get a 2-0 lead nonetheless, but a late-ish goal from Chongqing lost the HC; 1-2 FT. Beijing was pretty poor overall for my liking and they didn't start with their best possible/allowed line-up. Chongqing did better than expected with no foreign personnel available. Lets hope SIPG will bring the ML parlay home tomorrow.

The problem and what I miss here, is what you do when things don't go your way ? Every strategy, as good as it is, needs also an exit strategy, where you just admit defeat and settle/hedge for a loss. All these little profits are nice, but one game without a goal, will wipe out all those profits.
You can consider this trading strategy just as a "punt-pray-hedge" strategy, but then you should use lower stakes (in % of your bankroll). Do you have any strategy for exiting the trades at a certain point ?

Very nice thread

Lay the draw is probably the longest lasting strategy that is still working, if you are selecting your matches carefully. Instead of laying the draw, you can also choose to just play over x,5 at half-time. Laying the draw gives you some options to do more trades with free money in that game afterwards though. I saw me losing all profits and finishing the game with +/-0 only, so the over is better suited to undisciplined people maybe.

Looking forward to your next strategies

With this in mind, you can then never sign a player basically There have been players in the past - Sternkopf and Deisler come to my mind - who folded under the pressure, but in general you can expect pro footballers to deal ok-ish with all the pressure they have; at least performance-wise; what really goes on in their head, you will never know.

I once heard an interview from I think Per Mertesacker, who said, that even the best players are ultra nervous before matches and have to visit the bathroom frequently

I would love to see Kruse back at Werder, because he fits there very well. Werder officials know him and I trust them to assess all circumstances properly. He won't be cheap, but I think he is willing to sign for some discount to play at Werder and in Bundesliga again. And he doesn't strike me as someone who has a lot of issues with pressure. Seems like a cool dude, who also likes the temptations outside of football and isn't what you would call a role model of a professional football player. If it would work out in the end for Werder, you never know, but if he is affordable, they should sign him imo.

Although OP already confirmed not residing in a restricted jurisdictions, I would like to say a few words about this. Bookmakers always use these terms to their advantage - all bookmakers. These rules are only enforced in case of dispute (about withdrawals) and the bookie always wins

If OP was actually from US and got (only) his deposit back after SB found out, this is technically ok. But then again, if OP lost some of his deposit and then SB finds out, that he is from a restricted jurisdiction, he will not get his (full) deposit back. So this rule only ever works one way to the advantage of the bookie. They will take money from losing players, even if they were not allowed to play on their site and can bully people with their T&C when winning.

Sportsbet knows that some of their customers (who are active in this forum) are from UK or Netherlands - do they block their accounts ? No. Do these users knowingly violate the terms of Sportsbet ? Yes.

Afterall this a weird and often times shady business, but something we have to live with to a certain extent and as I said, it's the same everywhere and not only at Sportsbet. And we can always choose to not be part of it, it's not mandatory to gamble fortunately

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It's peanuts for Sportsbet And the reason, why I don't think this is some sort of a scam.

Yep, it's still available. Tells a lot, if nobody wants to join us even for free The requirements are not that hard, it's not like I am asking for a Legendary with thousands of merits Will maybe have to offer some additional hand money for someone to show mercy and finally take it.

If it isn't taken for this tournament, I will just put the 1,400 chips into the pools.

Neither do I follow mars missions in general (I maybe should) nor the betting markets for it. But I know that some austrian bookie is offering Mars-bets since years already. They had some fun bets like "What will happen first ? England winning the FIFA World Cup or humans landing on Mars." These bets are gone now as it seems, but there are different ones now and it looks like they don't trust in any of your mentioned missions being successful:


Source: https://www.bet-at-home.com/en/sport

Couldn't find any markets anywhere else, but I am not able to access some US bookies, like Bovada, who should have markets as well. Maybe you can check and post here then.

Guangdong - Beijing ML Beijing @3.37 2/10 (FJ)

Betting against Guangdong is not what I would normally recommend, since they decide how a game ends For that game tomorrow they might think it's better to gift the points to Beijing though, because it would mean that Beijing secures #3 spot in regular season and they would avoid them in PO for the time being. This is just pure speculation - thus the low staking - but Beijing is their nemesis.

If Liaoning loses their game tomorrow, this changes the calculation, but they are 1.01 favourites to beat Sichuan and need the win to stay in Top4. 

Only caught the 2nd half, but Wuhan was in control and weren't challenged too much by poor Qingdao. 2-0 FT

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The odds for the main bets Shanghai/Beijing have dropped a bit, but not (yet) as much as I expected. Beijing is 1.40-ish now, SIPG 1.45-ish, but still confident in both bets.

This case with Sportsbet is another example that fits quite well into this discussion. And it shows, what a powerful tool KYC can be and how gambling sites can use it to their advantage (not claiming that Sportsbet did it here).

There is multi-accounting and multi-accounting, this is the bottom line. If you are multi-accounting, but always lose all your money, then you are allowed to multi-account. If you are multi-accounting and winning, then you will be a victim of T&C's.
I am 100% sure that every casino/bookmaker knows about a lot of players doing multi-accounting at their sites - and they are fine with it, as long as it's giving them profits. If these players start to win, hit a bigger parlay or request a withdrawal, they can always user their power-tool, so this is a worthwhile, nearly risk-free, business, where you can never prove the operators being guilty.

Even if you choose to voluntarily do KYC once you opened your account, you are not safe from running into trouble in the future.

I can neither support nor oppose the flags.

• I don't think Sportsbet will scam anyone for this amount. There is too much at stake reputation-wise and ~0.4 BTC is nothing for such a company, which is a money printing machine in the end.
• By opening an account, you accept the T&C and I don't see where SB has violated their own T&C.
• I do understand why SB does not want to provide any proof in public, if it could harm them down the road dealing with "cheaters".
• If SB makes kind of an exception here after all the turmoil, this will open Pandoras Box, just like Stake did here imo.
• Otoh I also believe neymarjr12, when he says he has done nothing wrong. Has been very transparent and offered to do "anything"; even to have personal information published.
• Sometimes you maybe multi-account unknowingly. Like you made an account years ago, forgot about it and just opened a new one years later. Since he is being linked to 4 different accounts, I doubt this scenario though.
• IP checks or linking BTC addresses is no definite proof of multi-accounting.

I don't think a third party will be able to solve this case - at least not in favour of neymarjr12, because this would embarrass SB and their detection tools (regarding multi-accounting and KYC checks). This is something for a real court in the end, if OP wants to go that route.

I actually made a mistake with the second bet - math was never my strength - and the stake should have been 1.83/10 to cover 6 units. I will use the 1.83 stake for the stats.
It was a closer match than expected in the end, though I never had the feeling that Fujian would lose this. They played with full roster again and won 127-120 FT. +9.60 - 1.83 = +7.77 units

Profit: +11.22   
Yield: 11.47%   
W-L: 12-11
Win rate: 52.17%   
Average Stake: 4.25   
Average Odds: 2.38

Tomorrow there is only one game, which is uninteresting.


Gratz I expected Fujian to win more comfortable, but happy it was close, if it won you a bet. In general it's very hard to follow these bets - maybe too hard to justify such a thread, which is hard to maintain anyway due to different circumstances. The odds in CBA just move very fast once published, because they are often very wrong. So I don't know, if there is a point in continuing. You could get odds around 2.50-ish for Fujian for around an hour yesterday, some hours later they were around 2.00, before tip-off all the way down to 1.1x.

If people read my posts only hours later and then play 1.60, when I played/recommended 2.60, then this is not what I want, because they will most likely lose money longterm (value is gone in the lower odds). I think I will continue with posting some bets for last round of regular season and PO's afterwards and then re-think, if such a thread makes sense (for next season)

Pretty lame, but it's just temporarily, they had to rush a bit I would have liked Washington Team Football better, since it makes for a nicer abbreviation.

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Found these two interesting tweets regarding this topic:


Source: https://twitter.com/FB_FilmAnalysis/status/1285732609595772932


Source: https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1285578100659621893

Raiders are 1.83 to win @Carolina in week1, but well, the Raiders are the Raiders and they have their own issues I guess, so probably not that interesting. What is maybe more interesting is the regular season wins, where the line is 5.5. Last season they were 5-11 and that NFC South has gotten even more brutal. Carolina has way more winnable games in first few match-ups of the seaons imo, but that is when they still should struggle a lot:

Raiders
@Tampa
@Chargers
Cardinals
@Falcons
Bears

After that:

@Saints
Falcons
@Chiefs
Tampa
Lions
@Vikings
Broncos
@Packers
@Redskins
Saints

Put "sure losses" in red. If they are lucky enough to win 2 of the first 6 games, they would still need to get 4 wins from the next 10, which looks very unlikely imo. They still have CMC, but lost Kuechly on defense and I have my doubts about Bridgewater making any impact. Odds around 2.00 are probably not very attractive for single longterm bet, but if I find some other good season bets to parlay, I might include this one.

Fujian did indeed rest their best two players for this game. During this season, when one of these two was missing, they always lost by 30+. Both these players missing was a first time this season, but they did a bit better and lost by 28. 115-87 FT.

Odds shortly before tip-off:


Source: FortuneJack

As said, this will not count towards the stats, so they remain the same.

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For tomorrow/Friday:

Shanghai - Fujian ML Fujian @2.60 6/10 (FJ)

These odds look super high, if Fujian gave only a one-game rest to their two best players. If they choose to rest them for more games - to have them fresh for PO and because they don't care about finishing #12/#11/#10 in the table, then these odds are poor. It's a little gamble and I might buy these odds back (most likely with a loss), so either stake only 2-3/10 or watch out for a new post or edit in this thread and hedge for a loss then.

Edit:

Odds have moved a bit and I personally have taken out my stake by betting on Shanghai @4.29 to win 6 units. This is still CBA and anything can happen, so I would recommend to do the same.

Shanghai - Fujian ML Shanghai @4.29 1.4/10


Source: FortuneJack

I have a few questions regarding that:

1) When do you normally check if a user is multi-accounting ? (like as soon as an account is opened, when a withdrawal is requested, at first deposit, if there is some suspicion etc.)
2) If a user is multi-accounting and constantly losing money, do you close those accounts as well ?
3) Did you ever have a case, where your detection tools proved to be wrong ?

If answering these questions reveals too much or is too delicate, then just disregard