Also, this could be compared to market cap to find out whether BTC is currently over or under valued compared to prior dates, could it not? I think that'd be a neat analysis.  In fact, we can at least easily compare the two charts. I'm not sure... firstly: think about what you see when you remove the exchange rate from both charts (they have it in common, right?) secondly: bitcoins value only stems from its transactional features in part. In fact I think the majority of it's value is rooted in its store-of-wealth features. So you can't judge wether or not bitcoin is over-/undervalued just by looking at transaction volume. It surely plays its part because it indicates usage and increase in usage definitely results in increase of bitcoins value. Could you calculate the average ratio between change and transaction output? Or better yet, chart this ratio? That would be insanely useful. would you want me to calculate the ratio per transaction and then average that ("avg(output0/output1)") or add up the outputs per day and take that ratio ("sum(output0)/sum(output1)") ? If the latter, you can kind of see that ratio in my first chart (yellow vs. red) |
|
|
|
silverbox update (he died):
he died? He struck me as a guy with a variety of interests and other things going on. Sometimes people like that get interested in other projects and take a break from things like Bitcoin. Sometimes for a while, and sometimes forever. I think my record is like a month of not checking up on things. The slow-motion train-wreck that is ASIC has me captivated at the present time. To bad it's such a waste of time an energy, but if that's what one is looking for, on a sub-conscious level at least, what can one do? Also, of course, those of us with significant PM investments are kind of in a relatively long duration funk which has been mostly not the case over the last decade. Bitcoin is doing better over this period so it's hard to show up and be berated and humiliated by the likes of cypherdoc  I don't mind though It's good to hear silverbox hasn't actually died. The ASIC things has the opposite effect on me. It makes me turn away... there's nothing really to see there, just the same old shit puked up and eaten again. Gladly (opposed to how it was with Pirate) it is possible to ignore this topic. I just try to forget about my bfl order and be suprised and happy when a package arrives . |
|
|
|
Also, this could be compared to market cap to find out whether BTC is currently over or under valued compared to prior dates, could it not? I think that'd be a neat analysis. In fact, we can at least easily compare the two charts. I'm not sure... firstly: think about what you see when you remove the exchange rate from both charts (they have it in common, right?) secondly: bitcoins value only stems from its transactional features in part. In fact I think the majority of it's value is rooted in its store-of-wealth features. So you can't judge wether or not bitcoin is over-/undervalued just by looking at transaction volume. It surely plays its part because it indicates usage and increase in usage definitely results in increase of bitcoins value. |
|
|
|
This really showcases definite growth of BTC. Even though the bug is now fixed, the correlation between transaction volume and USD volume can likely be used for a decent while into the future to continue calculating close-to-actual USD transaction volume. Anyone want to calculate a regression between the two? Molecular, are you willing to share the spreadsheet of data? I am curious what the r-squared value is.
sure. http://pastebin.com/jBmECtVS |
|
|
|
...
If the mining subsidy is such a small percentage of trading volume why is this issue a concern?
I have the same question. I think the thinking is that while hashing power is in a crazy rise, many more coins than usual will be mined before difficulty adjusts. Rinse, repeat while ASIC manufacturers scale up. Add to that the assumption that these miners are dumpers and you have a dropping exchange rate. I agree this effect might happen, however I don't think it will be of great magnitude. |
|
|
|
I lowered price to BTC 1.38. Just got stock.
I'd like to buy 4 of those beautiful coins allright, choose a shipping option. assuming worldwide tracked letter:
4 Casascius 1 BTC series 2 coins BTC 5.52
tracked letter worldwide BTC 0.33
-------------------------------------------
sum BTC 5.85
please pay to 1DgBUr3rLQBSNtmHSW6nJF8MBcm5fDkknM and PM me shipping info if you want to take the offer. (I just changed my policy to require up-front payment for all orders. However you ordered before I made the change, so you can pay 50% now and 50% on receiving the coins) UPDATE 2013/01/14: 50% down payment received UPDATE 2013/01/15: shipped, PMed tracking # and coin addresses UPDATE 2013/01/23: nexus6 reports coins as received, outstanding 50% payment received. |
|
|
|
I'm wanting to buy a few coins so I can offer them on diceoncrack.com and taabl.net
Will you offer any discount for quantities larger than 4? Say I want 10, 25 or even 50 if the price is right, what would those quantities cost me, including shipping to Europe?
I don't think that makes sense. Mike sells 10+ coins for 1.15 each plus pretty affordable shipping. I cannot beat that. Just hypothetically: I would give a discount for 10 or more and sell them to you for 1.30. Shipping would cost €5.50 plus €1.5 for each €100 worth of insurance. EDIT: also: shipping wont be faster, at least not by much. I have a shipment to Italy which I sent on 12/30. It still hasn't arrived. Mikes shipment to me (which he sent I think on 12/29) already arrived here. |
|
|
|
|
I lowered price to BTC 1.38. Just got stock.
|
|
|
|
By the way everyone, I am a little slow on orders at the moment due to my last week's attendance of CES in Las Vegas, and also because I unexpectedly managed to sell out of my prepared stock of 1BTC coins and need to have another coin party so I can have more ready for shipment.
I lowered my price to BTC 1.38 per coin. So in the meantime, if people want to buy 1-3 coins, they can buy from me using this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131758.msg1411208#msg1411208 |
|
|
|
The term "proforma", I guess I should look that up. I buy things from China all the time, and they frequently send me a "proforma invoice", and I've always thought this meant it's a non-binding quotation unless I sign and accept it, but perhaps it's worth understanding.
I looked it up in german wikipedia. Seems "proforma Rechnung" is a fixed term. It means it's an bill that doesn't include the requirement to the recipient to make a payment. It seems to have been the biggest problem that there was no payment receipt or payment transaction documentation. I guess that's why she had to go to lengths determining the value of these things. She wasn't inclined at all to just use the value from the customs declaration ($25) or the "proforma" invoice. (I'm not clear on the difference of "invoice" and "bill", btw). Boy am I glad she didn't notice my coins had holograms and the blanks you offer don't. A "correct" albeit cumbersome and probably slightly expensive solution to this problem would be to make 2 payments: One payment for the brass coins and shipping via paypal (resulting in a payment receipt I could use at customs) + one payment for the bitcoins to be loaded onto the coins. |
|
|
|
In a nutshell, that's about the size of it.
It's a bit more complex than that of course. Bitcoin can still contribute much more than the enormous contribution it already has in an effort towards proving the viability of alternatives to modern fiat currencies. But on it's current trajectory Bitcoin is more-or-less destined for the same fate as the USD, and in my opinion, headed that way even faster than the USD when Brenton Woods is taken as a starting point.
To clarify, the 'fate' I mentioned is monopolization by parties who don't have the interests of the public at large as a primary goal. Not that this was ever fully the case with the USD, but it has served surprisingly well over a fair period of time as a vehicle upon which the bulk of the population realized significant benefit by it's use and/because had some pretty decent management over much of it's lifespan.
There are huge difference between USD and BTC and also between the Banking Cartel that runs the Dollar and a potentially small Bitcoin network. The Bitcoin network will always be open for anyone who has the resources to join. The fate of the USD is loss of trust and hence evaporation. I don't quite see how Bitcoin would follow here. Care to elaborate or point me to a post/thread where you or someone else has done this? Some other time on a more appropriate thead and board. And after I've brushed up on some tech and spent more effort understanding more precisely the current state of things. Current magnitude of some of the numbers, and studied some recent growth charts some more. Thx for your patience. of course... looking forward to it. |
|
|
|
Someone needs to copy this exactly, not half assed. Or owner, sell the code ASAP.
Unfortunately the owner isn't reading this. Anyone have contact info? |
|
|
|
Importing 100 Brass Tokens with Hologram to GermanySo my 100 1-BTC casascius coins had been held at the customs office in Hamburg because the German Post wasn't able to declare them (reason given: no invoice attached to outside of package). I went there to declare it myself. After "getting a number", the usual procedure when dealing with german bureaucracy. My number was called and a girl in her twenties showed me the package and asked what was in it. I said it cointained Brass Holograms with no monetary value and pointed to the customs number on Mikes invoice. She told me to open the package (which was actually 3 packages inside of each other, Mike packed it really well). I put the 2 heavy rolls of 50 Coins onto the table: "here we go.". She looked at them and saying I should sit down and wait, she would check. She went to the backroom. While waiting it dawned on me she was actually doing her job and probably googling bitcoin. I wasn't wrong: after 25 minutes she came back with a printout of the order form casascius.com. She had entered "100" into the first text-box (1 BTC Casascius Coin). She asked me how much 1 Bitcoin was worth and I told her: "currently you can get about €11 for one". OH SHIT!My fear was unfounded: since she had already read that Mike would load them after I had received them it wasn't very hard to convince her that what I actually had bought were blanks. (Not ocrrect, since the blanks don't have holograms. She could've had me right there!). However she kept asking how much I had payed. I argued that I knew Mike and he had given me the coins as a present and I would load the up myself. So she went to the backroom again (she said she had talked to higher-ups before and would have to do so again) for another 20 minutes. She came back with a calculation of value: 100 * BTC 0.05 * 11 €/BTC = 55€ + 30.82 € shipping (yes, you have to pay import sales tax on the shipping!!!) = BTC 85.82. That would be 7% = €6.11 please. (She even had a printout of some exchange site to back up the 11€ exchange rate.) PHEW!So I payed up and asked wether our business was now conducted, put another 1 BTC coin I had with me on the counter and stated it clearly wouldn't be considered a bribe if I gave her this coin. I saw her hand make a micro-move towards the coin before she had to say: "Sorry, I'm not allowed to, but thanks a lot!" So I guess some people at the Customs office in Hamburg might be looking into Bitcoin now Problematic points where: - The invoice Mike sent me couldn't be used because it was "proforma" (didn't get around to ask what could be improved)
- It says "gift" on the Customs Declaration... then why did I have an invoice?
- I didn't have documentation of any payment. (Actually I could've pointed to a BTC 112 transaction but that wouldn't have been advisable)
- The "Blanks" on Mikes order page have no hologram, the ones I imported however, do.
needless to say: I'm reselling Casascius Series 1 physical bitcoins (1 BTC) using my thread here (bitmit escrow is too hot a potato currently)
|
|
|
|
|
I have to agree with OP. I don't think an ASIC company failing will have considerable effect on the exchange rate.
As a (potential) miner: if you've spent that fiat back in late summer 2012 then it's already out of your hands. You had USD, now you don't. Your plan was to use the hardware to acquire bitcoins. Now you wont get that hardware. Why the hell would you sell bitcoins now when your plan was to acquire bitcoins.
If you had bitcoins in summer 2012, it's more likely you already sold back then to get fiat for the preorder. And now you're here in 2013 and you lost a bunch of fiat and you still don't have bitcoins. What do you do?
|
|
|
|
Blockchain bloat will have to be dealt with at some point anyway. SDICE is just accellerating this a bit. It was clear a long time ago that the "p2p nature" (as in: every customer runs a node) of Bitcoin was going to be "reduced".
Ya, this has significantly shifted my interest in the Bitcoin implementation of 'crypto-accounting systems'. My interest is still high of course, but it is weighted more toward seeking personal profits than it was, and analyzing the system as a general study for future independent efforts vs. hoping that evolutionary developments of Bitcoin proper hold much hope as leverage toward balancing the imbalances in our mainstream monetary solutions. So it goes. If I parsed this correctly you said something like: "Due to this I don't think bitcoin can save the world any more but still make me rich"? In a nutshell, that's about the size of it. It's a bit more complex than that of course. Bitcoin can still contribute much more than the enormous contribution it already has in an effort towards proving the viability of alternatives to modern fiat currencies. But on it's current trajectory Bitcoin is more-or-less destined for the same fate as the USD, and in my opinion, headed that way even faster than the USD when Brenton Woods is taken as a starting point. To clarify, the 'fate' I mentioned is monopolization by parties who don't have the interests of the public at large as a primary goal. Not that this was ever fully the case with the USD, but it has served surprisingly well over a fair period of time as a vehicle upon which the bulk of the population realized significant benefit by it's use and/because had some pretty decent management over much of it's lifespan. There are huge difference between USD and BTC and also between the Banking Cartel that runs the Dollar and a potentially small Bitcoin network. The Bitcoin network will always be open for anyone who has the resources to join. The fate of the USD is loss of trust and hence evaporation. I don't quite see how Bitcoin would follow here. Care to elaborate or point me to a post/thread where you or someone else has done this? |
|
|
|
hopefully they make right with anyone that owned shares on glbse
He hasn't been logged in here since October 2012. Not a good sign. |
|
|
|
or we are really moving a shitload of money nowadays (maybe both).
Eyeballing this, it roughly correlates to an increased number of transactions as well. I would be curious to know if the average for output #1 is increasing much though. What average do you mean? You can see the average per day in the chart. Maybe you're talking about the average per transaction? |
|
|
|
Blockchain bloat will have to be dealt with at some point anyway. SDICE is just accellerating this a bit. It was clear a long time ago that the "p2p nature" (as in: every customer runs a node) of Bitcoin was going to be "reduced". Ya, this has significantly shifted my interest in the Bitcoin implementation of 'crypto-accounting systems'. My interest is still high of course, but it is weighted more toward seeking personal profits than it was, and analyzing the system as a general study for future independent efforts vs. hoping that evolutionary developments of Bitcoin proper hold much hope as leverage toward balancing the imbalances in our mainstream monetary solutions. So it goes. [/quote] If I parsed this correctly you said something like: "Due to this I don't think bitcoin can save the world any more but still make me rich"? |
|
|
|
...
I will simply state here that if a sale of SD happens to some outside party, the current MPEx shareholders will receive buyout funds proportionately to their shares. In other words, if an outsider moves into this industry, there is a good chance SD would be bought out, and then S.DICE holders still end up winning (perhaps winning big).
Some of the Bitcoin dev team have mentioned the strain SD puts on the nascent Bitcoin solution, and it is blamed for a fair part of the blockchain bloat. Even so, it does not seem to be enough to have induced a workable merkle pruning scheme yet. I do hope that such a thing is even practical. It seems a shame to me that so much effort was put into the GUI client a year and a half ago vs. some of the more foundational aspect of the Bitcoin solution since the end result seems to be that the QT-client (and P2P nature of Bitcoin itself) is increasingly unpopular due to bloat. One of the earliest concerns of mine regarding Bitcoin is that it did not seem to have enough protection against 'denial of service' attacks, though I still have not studied the issue in great detail. I would be leery of investing in SD in case the evolution of the Bitcoin solution injects measures which impact the practicality of SD working as it does (however that is.) Maybe SD could adapt. I wouldn't know. Blockchain bloat will have to be dealt with at some point anyway. SDICE is just accellerating this a bit. It was clear a long time ago that the "p2p nature" (as in: every customer runs a node) of Bitcoin was going to be "reduced". |
|
|
|
The off exchange market is much larger than many people realize. Someone looking to buy or sell a large quantity (>1000 BTC) will find that due to lack of slippage an OTC transaction with a trusted counterparty makes more sense. Generally when someone is looking to buy 10K BTC or more they get to know the other party so I have spent considerable time emailing and talking with potential clients. There is a growing interest from non-traditional money (i.e. those people who have no interest in mining, or a certain darknet marketplace). While I never ask "how much do you make?" or "what is your net worth?" you get an feel for someone finances on how they deal with money. In FC4B we have clients who are freaking out because a $400 ACH is a day late. We have also had direct buyers be willing to post six figure wires a couple days early because it was easier for them to get it done that day. The later aren't people building mining rigs in their garage.
We (Tangible Cryptography LLC) sell about 10K BTC a week in direct off exchange sales. Our highest volume week was closer to triple that. I have learned indirectly through clients that there are about three or four other entities which can handle transactions in the >1000 BTC range. So what is total OTC volume (to include other direct sellers like BitInstant)? It is hard to guess but I wouldn't be surprised if it is more than 40K to 60K BTC per week.
Thanks for this valuable info. I've always been suspecting that OTC Volume was high. Add to that volume on other exchanges and the gox market starts to look a little less mighty. The less liquid mtgox is the more likely it is to be "manipulated". It's just very tempting for someone seeking to buy a large amount OTC or on other exchanges to just slam the price on gox beforehand and then lock in good prices with bitcoin suppliers, isn't it? I'm not sure arbitraging between exchanges is working the way I expected it to work (make it all one big market). I'll have to ponder this more. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
