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841  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Ban: Russian Regulators do not want Legislators to Ban Crypto on: June 11, 2020, 10:54:59 PM
Russia makes a non-statement about Bitcoin yet again.

there is no cohesive "russia" on this issue. there is actually a very interesting internal struggle occurring. the ministry of finance---and now the ministry of economic development---are in polar opposition to the central bank, who since 2014 or so has been hoping for bitcoin/crypto to be banned, as they view it as an illegal money substitute.

it's the central bank that is behind the recent bill to ban bitcoin. as i said when that news came out last month, the government is far from united on this issue, which is why i'm not overly concerned about the bill.
842  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Tax Obligation : 1099-B Cash App on: June 11, 2020, 10:44:27 PM
This all I could get out of them when asking about their handling of bitcoin taxes.  I am guessing they don't send anything unless you sell on their app, but I have yet to get any concrete information on this.

a 1099-B only pertains to taxable transactions, generally sales. there would be nothing to list if you didn't sell through their app so i assume if you only buy that you won't get one.

this is different from coinbase, kraken, etc who send out 1099-K forms. with them, you can conceivably pass the 200 transaction + $20k threshold just by buying. then you will receive a 1099-K.

Cash App does not report a cost basis for your Bitcoin sales to the IRS.

at the cost of convenience, that at least means you don't have to correct their mistakes or worry about them exaggerating your gains to the IRS.
843  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker talk - Specifically Hold'em - Hands and or strategy on: June 11, 2020, 10:29:14 PM
i'm assuming you're saying they hit 2 pair on the river? did you mean 56o?
that's the tough thing about tournaments. the odds don't care about how deep you are or the time invested. aggressive players with live cards are dangerous. even as played you're not much better than 60/40 there. when you can get it in vs Ax it's pretty nice, but no matter how you look at it, deep runs/strong finishes require running good on flips.
Ooops no I meant the flop was 23Q - They rivered a straight.

ah, classic. Tongue

Last night I took a look at GGpoker. Heard okay things and wanted to try it out, I can say this much. I've gotten used to the large guarantees on ACR. I was checking out their schedule and I'll try out a few tournaments in the next couple days to see what the field is like. Not positive I'll stick around but who knows.

did you have to KYC? no USA players allowed. Sad

It does feel nice to have a few options, I think SWC is going to be in the regular rotation for a while. Gotta dig a little deeper but last nights tournament was essentially a 3X buy-in by the time late reg ends.

It was weird, you can make it a double rebuy from the start, then an add-on at end of late reg. 1500 starting stack and 5000 add-on.

that's pretty standard structure for a rebuy tourney. you talking about the nightly seal battle?
844  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: June 11, 2020, 10:11:48 PM
I think nothing will happen, in meaning of Trump election. There only 13 % of young people is black people (anti trumpists) and the most part of middle class people age 40 is for Trump.
it's mostly non-black people who are out protesting btw. 60-70% of americans sympathize with the protests depending on which poll you look at.
Supporting protest against cops and racism doesn't mean supporting anti Trump campaign.

the issue is that a strong majority of americans disagree with trump's handling of the protests and his position on police reform. he is handing biden the police/racism issue on a silver platter and showing he is out of touch with most americans. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/06/09/74-of-americans-support-george-floyd-protests-majority-disapprove-of-trumps-handling/#44b651e8557c

i see him alienating lots of people---even republicans are split, with 53% supporting the protests---so if he keeps doubling down on his unpopular opinions, he better hope the protests lose steam and everybody forgets about them real soon. he has done more than enough to keep his core base happy; when is he gonna consider damage control? at this point he is just energizing non-voters to vote against him and also alienating centrists, adding fuel to the fire.

odds at 53-41, biden advantage. https://odds.watch/trump-2020

if trump starts being priced below 30% to win then i start becoming interested in the trump bet. i love me a good underdog. Smiley
845  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Exchanges not accepting mixed BTC, so is BTC no longer fungible? on: June 11, 2020, 09:36:06 PM
Binance made it clear this was imposed on them by the authorities in Singapore.

this is what CZ said:

Quote
Binance SG operates under the requirements as set forth by MAS and our MAS regulated partner, Xfers. Hence there are AML CFT controls set in place for the Binance SG.

i haven't heard of any similar cases at huobi or kucoin. i've also never seen any specific MAS rules that refer to mixing, coinjoins, or anything like that. none of those things were mentioned in singapore's new AML law passed last year.

normally i would assume that any licensed third party operator is just a binance shell corporation, but maybe "Xfers" is actually an independent third party and has internal policies re mixing.

i'm still at a loss for why binance would put themselves in this position given that other singapore-based exchanges don't seem to have similar rules. according to their posted TOS they are still working with Xfers.

There comes an inflection point where it starts to hurt their business in a significant way.

+1. people underestimate how much lack of fungibility can hurt exchanges. they know it too.
846  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Bitcointalk Poker Series format discussion - Let's keep them all in one place. on: June 11, 2020, 07:55:39 PM
I have thought about such ideas as well. Mainly about incentives to keep the weaker and/or out-of-contention players interested and probably get new (regular) players. The best idea I could come up with, was some kind of lottery for players ranked outside of Top9 after 8 tournaments. Each player who has participated in at least 6/8 tournaments is eligible and will get "tickets" to the lottery based on his number of participations and the points he accumulated:
~snip~
The problem is........it creates additional hassle with collecting these funds, so probably not an option.
Something like this could work as a random incentive for people to keep playing. Funding it and collecting isn't much harder than the current system. It would be nice to hear if people are opposed to up front entry/league fees or not.

+1. do it up front and it's not an issue. i'm just worried the people who might only play ~2-4 games won't play at all if we do it up front.

i like the idea of a random incentive, something to play towards even if you're not in contention, kinda like a bad beat jackpot or something.

The more thought I give this I think the best way to make this inclusive would be to fund a runner-up tournament for the rest of the field. We could make it 1300 with the extra 100 going to the runner-up prizepool. Say everyone who plays in at least 1/2 of the qualifiers gets auto-entry. The prizepool won't be huge but it wouldn't be nothing and could provide incentive to everyone. I like the idea of keeping any extra we get from SWC directed towards the championship; unless they offer obviously.

i'm on board with this. it would probably net a ~0.015+ BTC prize pool.

I understand not giving everyone a point for games played. It's not so bad if you are finishing in the top 5 or so, but it really hurts people playing the bubble who hold out for that 1 point.

it's not a big deal for me if we weight the top places. we just have to do it right.

the one positive thing about a system like that is it probably reduces the "points bubble" effect, when everyone gets all nitty around places 11-12.

Took a shot and invited the table to join got no takers but Riley Reid invited me to their "fansonly"  Roll Eyes Made me chuckle. I don't know why Regs seem opposed to taking part but I did see Bitmutiny at the tables.

they're too cool for bitcointalk. Undecided
847  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker talk - Specifically Hold'em - Hands and or strategy on: June 11, 2020, 07:08:23 PM
Villain opens 2.25 BB folds around
Hero 3-bet to 7.1 BB
They Jam. I elect to call off with AQ. I figure they might have a weak pocket pair, suited Ax. Could be a strong pair but like I said they play these in a trappy fashion from what I've seen.

They show 46 off....  board runs out 26Q ? 5   It was a rainbow flop and can't recall the turn but that F'n river 5. Just annoyed about it is all. I had the right read on the player, strong enough hand against their range if you want to call it that.

i'm assuming you're saying they hit 2 pair on the river? did you mean 56o?

that's the tough thing about tournaments. the odds don't care about how deep you are or the time invested. aggressive players with live cards are dangerous. even as played you're not much better than 60/40 there. when you can get it in vs Ax it's pretty nice, but no matter how you look at it, deep runs/strong finishes require running good on flips.

2.6bbs, damn! i am rarely blinding all the way down to there. at that point you're just playing for the next payout ladder.
It's a good strategy, in my opinion, but unfortunately sometimes I don't have the strength to use it. Often I start worrying when I have less than 10 BB, start playing more aggressively, and in the vast majority of cases it ends badly.

it's tough to find the perfect balance. i agree that the old 10bb threshold for shoving is often premature, but there is a lot of room between 10 and 2.6. Smiley
848  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Exchanges not accepting mixed BTC, so is BTC no longer fungible? on: June 10, 2020, 08:59:14 PM
I’ve read about some particular cases, although I still don’t have the impression that it is anywhere close to it being a general trend, neither in terms of practicing Exchanges, nor in terms of the total number of impacted users.

+1. i've primarily only read about coinjoin users being flagged and having accounts frozen/closed, and those reports are few and far between. however, sometimes exchanges (especially gemini and coinbase) don't tell customers why their accounts are being closed, and proximity to mixing services could be involved.

the OP didn't bring anything new to the table. exchanges have been hiring chainalysis type companies for years. anecdotally i haven't noticed much of a change in recent times. things have been pretty quiet outside of that one binance singapore incident where they froze someone's account for using wasabi wallet coinjoins.
849  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker talk - Specifically Hold'em - Hands and or strategy on: June 10, 2020, 08:38:33 PM
I have to say this patience fucking sucks. Okay maybe an exaggeration but fuck me is it hard, and heartbreaking when it winds up being for not. I've been working on this a lot, slowing down, putting less chips in and trying to control pots better. It was a change from trying to get in as much as possible to flip with a volatile stack size, or abrupt end. Not so much early on but as late reg nears it's end and through the battle past the bubble and then for ladders. LAst night was one of those tourneys. With about 3 levels left in late reg I was 4th of 236, and stayed in top 10 until we got down to 50. From there I was around 15-19th until we got down to 20. I made it to 17/17, by nursing my stack down to 6 BB, then to 2.6BB getting it in with A3off, and survivng to the ladder at 15. Did the same to make the jump at 14/14 with 9Ts
Then here I am 10/10 with 5.6BB and I get KK - The only premium pocket pair I've been dealt this whole tournament. Okay JJ but that's not the premium I mean. I jam and get called by AK, they run 4 to a flush lol. I can't complain I really went card dead from 42 players remaining and just focused on surviving to the ladders rather than jam garbage in good spots to try and steal. I made potentially made 3 buy-ins more by waiting and getting lucky, but damn that final double-up would have been nice.

2.6bbs, damn! i am rarely blinding all the way down to there. at that point you're just playing for the next payout ladder. i think it's more optimal to keep playing for #1 even if it means shoving weaker, earlier. it retains more fold equity too. at 4-6bbs my range is fairly wide for this reason.

not a bad result anyhow considering the lack of premium hands. realistically you gotta ride out hundreds of MTTs without shipping one sometimes.....
850  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Bitcointalk Poker Series format discussion - Let's keep them all in one place. on: June 10, 2020, 08:12:19 PM
we're at least set on keeping 5000 chip starting stacks and the same blind structure, right?

any other thoughts on an additional buy-in to fund direct league prizes (ie top x players in points get BTC prizes)?

or about upfront league entry vs per game entry? it would be way less headache to collect fees if it were all done upfront.

I think everyone should get a point for entering any tournament match. So even if you came last 8 times you will have more points than someone who lost 2/2 of their games.

We aren't affecting the top end of your games. As seen its the usual faces in the top few slots, this is adoption at the other end of the scale.

so basically this?

Quote
linear points: (n-r+1) where n = number of entrants and r = rank placed. so for a field of 18 players:

1st place = 18 points
18th place = 1 point

the problem is it devalues the top ranks. the bigger the field is, the less share of points the winners get. in a really big field there is basically no difference between a #1 and #10 finish. i think it would be fine if we just had ~18 man tournaments, but with larger fields it flattens things quite a lot.

Also I think a losers tournament was nice for something for the non pros to look forward to.

i think so too. if we coordinate with SwC beforehand they might be willing to throw us a bone. if not, should we try to fund it ourselves? 500 chips x 20 players = the 0.01 BTC prize pool we had for the first runners up game.
851  Economy / Gambling / Re: 🚀 Sportsbet.io - Main Club Partner of Watford FC ⚽ Fun. 🏀 Fast. 🎾 Fair. �� on: June 10, 2020, 07:45:41 PM
Good Luck tonight guys!!

Hope to see some newbies at the tables!

regards,

Steve.

i got knocked out fairly quickly today. i doubled up very early on, but some donk called my pocket AA preflop with 62o (despite a big raise) and he hit a full house. i paid him off. Roll Eyes

@webtricks still has a strong chip stack, good luck dude! everyone else i know is out already.....
852  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: June 10, 2020, 07:29:29 PM
A couple of news cycles later we could be looking at a landslide election, but which way it goes is anyone's guess at this point.

i agree that it's too early to read too much into anything at this point, but i think trump is setting himself up for political disaster by 1. banking too much on a fast economic recovery while delaying relief measures and 2. writing off the protests wholesale and showering praise on police, which simply disagrees with the majority of american opinion. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/500867-poll-majority-sympathetic-to-protesters-disapprove-of-trumps-response

i just get this impression that he's gonna keep doubling down on unpopular opinions/policies instead of listening to public opinion.

I think it's all about timing. When Kamala Harris is added to the Democratic ticket she will propel Biden to victory in November.

interesting speculation. i'm leaning towards kamala getting on the ticket too.

I think nothing will happen, in meaning of Trump election. There only 13 % of young people is black people (anti trumpists) and the most part of middle class people age 40 is for Trump.

it's mostly non-black people who are out protesting btw. 60-70% of americans sympathize with the protests depending on which poll you look at.

the big fear for trump and republicans is that younger voters will turn out in higher numbers now (and in general that turnout will be high). voter registration groups are seeing lots of engagement since the protests began and biden is rightly targeting younger voters in his ads. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/09/politics/voter-registration-protests/index.html
853  Economy / Gambling / Re: #2 Bitcointalk Poker Series (0.05 BTC & BIG BTC Ticket sponsored by SwC Poker) on: June 09, 2020, 06:11:57 PM
Congratulations Steamtyme, FOMA777 and 1r0n1c to win the second series. You three have played really good poker and I hope you've been back in the next series.  Wink

thanks dude. it was a lot of fun as always and i'll definitely be back in the next series.

bumping for visibility: Bitcointalk Poker Series format discussion

we need some more input and consensus around changes, otherwise i guess the format will stay the same, aside from scrapping late registration.
854  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker talk - Specifically Hold'em - Hands and or strategy on: June 09, 2020, 05:51:56 PM
Here are the videos for the last qualifier and the Series 2 Championship.

thanks, i just gave the championship a quick look through. were there hands in particular you wanted to discuss?

i don't feel so bad for @arallmuus now that i see he limped KK on that trip Qs hand. still, pretty gutsy call on your part with top pair, 8 kicker on a very wet flop. i assume you put him on the flush draw?

i should have been in that hand lol. i had 5h6h and would have flopped the flush. i had just taken out @iv4n and wanted to let you splash around with the small stacks for a bit + nurse my stack. you came through in spades. Cheesy
855  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker talk - Specifically Hold'em - Hands and or strategy on: June 08, 2020, 08:03:12 PM
i'm folding there most times, then kicking myself when villains both show AX hands. Tongue

given generic ranges i think you're winning there maybe 1/3 of the time at showdown multi-way? being only in for 0.5bb and with very little fold equity vs villain 2, and with villain 1's range being a bit of a wild card, i think we can walk away. just too much to invest preflop IMO.....
Wait a minute were you there... They both show AKoff, and the cards run out clean.

probably not, doesn't ring a bell---just such a standard annoying spot. i posted a similar multi-way pot a while back where villains showed down AA and KK. i've seen my share of AX vs AX there, which is always frustrating.

Either way thanks for the insight. I'll have videos tomorrow night likely. I'd love to have people come in and talk spots about the Championship game. I'm curious what people thought about some of my call downs.

i'm looking forward to it!
856  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Poloniex shows no remorse, so no forgiving on: June 08, 2020, 07:39:06 PM
Never say never...

They should consider the good publicity. Poloniex is paying back what it took from its customers. That would make headlines everywhere.

i hate to be a pessimist but i see 2 obstacles to that:

1. this wasn't a huge scandal like, for instance, the bitfinex hack where every single customer lost 36% of their funds. refusal to pay that down would have destroyed their brand. poloniex was quick to point out that this lending fiasco only affected 0.4% of users, and a few months ago they made a tiny flat repayment that made 1000s of small victims whole. now there are a fairly small number of people sitting on the bulk of the losses---too few to make a big public stink that forces poloniex to action.

2. their march blog post made it clear to me that their #1 goal is deflecting blame onto circle. paying back the losses is a distant #2 goal. they are hiding behind the "under new management" label pretty hard.
857  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: June 08, 2020, 07:25:22 PM
However, who creates the results of these polls? I am very skeptical. The ratings agencies were paid to rate subprime loans as AAA or AA during the 2008 housing bubble.

these are the same pollsters who said trump's numbers were skyrocketing in march and early april. as discussed earlier, pollsters in the 2016 election were stuck in an elitist bubble, ignoring non-coastal cities and rural america. after their monumental failure in that election, i think they've mostly corrected for those shortcomings.

and with public sentiment turning against trump, punters are turning against him too. betfair has biden at 52% and trump at 42% now. that seems to reflect the most recent polls, which suggest trump's approval rating is plunging:



there is other tangible stuff too. i mentioned earlier about how trump is alienating religious conservatives. well, he is now obviously alienating prominent republicans, who are breaking ranks in increasing numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/us/politics/trump-biden-republicans-voters.html

george bush and mitt romney came out saying they don't support trump, colin powell (bush SOS) said he is voting for biden and made a scathing public rebuke of trump. heavyweights like ryan, boehner, and murkowski refuse to publicly say whether they will be voting for trump because they know endorsing him now is a political disaster waiting to happen. trump is goddamn dumpster fire.

In any case, what is the situation on the riots in America? Is it escalating? This might be something everyone should read and think on how unpredictable the future might be.

rioting has calmed down but the protests continue. many curfews have been lifted since the recent protests have been more peaceful.
858  Economy / Gambling / Re: #2 Bitcointalk Poker Series (0.05 BTC & BIG BTC Ticket sponsored by SwC Poker) on: June 07, 2020, 08:30:58 PM
Our 2nd Bitcointalk Poker Series just ended - congratulations to our new Champion Steamtyme, followed by figmentofmyass & 1r0n1c! Congrats to the rest, too, of course - that was a nice Final!

I would like to thank each and every one of you for joining us and for your understanding when it comes to organizational stuff - I am trying my best but there is of course still room to improve things! Another very big thanks to tyKiwanuka for his support as well as his amazing spreadsheets!



I have just transferred the extra winnings:

- Steamtyme received 15k chips
- Figmentofmyass received 9k chips
- 1r0n1c received 9k chips



#3 Series coming - see you soon!

thanks again @efialtis and @tyKiwanuka. i've received the chips. Smiley

oh and good luck in the next BIG BTC @Steam! i had big dreams but it looks like you're gonna have to bink it for the both of us. Tongue

i need to keep grinding the lower buy-ins for a while and ease back into a groove. this 2nd place finish is a good start, now i've got some buy-ins for the next while.....

discussion about the next series:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5247993.msg54578966#new
859  Economy / Gambling / Re: #2 Bitcointalk Poker Series (0.05 BTC & BIG BTC Ticket sponsored by SwC Poker) on: June 07, 2020, 08:14:06 PM
Hey everyone great game today. Everyone played real well.

Figmentofmyass, great heads up match. You played that amazing for starting off shortstacked. Good shove in the end, I just couldn't fold out any pocket pair. My heart dropped at the K, because I was trying so hard not to double you up. That turned 4 and I started jumping lol.

congrats dude, very solid heads up match. i was running pretty cold, always raising with the bottom of my range. i maybe could have waited for a better spot than that K2s jam, although i'm not upset with myself. that was a very solid call on your part.

almost took you out with that flop anyway---you had to hit that 2-outer on the turn! we woulda been in for a long heads up match if that pot went the other way. Tongue

The hand you were wondering about I turned a pair of Kings , the c-bet on the flop was just a balanced bet. I had K8off I believe.

thanks, that's what it felt like. i had flopped bottom pair.

great game and series everyone. i'm glad i finally managed to cash one of these things. Tongue

time to crack open a beer and enjoy this beautiful spring weather......
860  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Bitcointalk Poker Series format discussion - Let's keep them all in one place. on: June 07, 2020, 07:04:55 PM
If you put 100 chips aside from each player for every tournament in series #2, you would have had a 14500 chips prize pool for this lottery.

The problem is........it creates additional hassle with collecting these funds, so probably not an option.

that's one reason why upfront league entry would be nice. everything gets sorted out and paid for beforehand (on a series basis rather than per game basis) except for the direct buy-ins themselves.

the problem of course is that 250+250 for league/championship prizes = 4000 chips up front, which may deter some people.
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