Yes I understand the rollover fees when the old contract expires and they need to roll into the new contract. So I decided to dig a little and compare the price when bitcoin etf went live 2 years ago and compare it to today.

At first it seems you would lose 10% by comparing the prices, however they actually pay a dividend and when you add the dividend and compare the price you are out about 1.5-2.0%. This is after management fees so about 1% a year.

I don’t think this is that bad. Especially for something that can easily double triple in the next decade, nobody will seem to mind the small average 1% fee.

I expected a pump if the etf was approved but nothing like getting a $5000 day. We knew there was a high chance it might be approved because blackrock usually gets all their applications approved with almost 100% approval rating.

Right now everybody is buying because they know that these spot etfs will need to buy physical bitcoins for their etf and they need to buy it on spot. With the small amount on exchanges it causes these huge spikes due to high demand and low supply.

So why is this spot etf exactly important? We already got the cash settled futures etf back in 2021. Can’t pension funds and institutions invest in that ? Sure the fees are a little higher but they aren’t that much compared to say GBTC yearly fees.

Just trying to understand why this spot etf is so important. I know it will be real bitcoins instead of the derivatives. But why don’t all these pension funds just pay the cash settled etf? Are they not allowed to invest in cash settled etfs like oil? Maybe someone can chime in.

These types of threads reminds me of late 2021 when everybody was expecting bitcoin to hit $100K before year end and $1M sometime in 2022. And look what happened how it topped out in 2021.

Sure the etf is great but it won’t cause bitcoin to go up that fast. Last month the ETH etf was launched and it had maybe $1M of trading volume. If there is adoption it will be at a slow pace, it won’t happen overnight and cause price to surge that much.

Don’t really understand what you are saying. Is this about selling alts and moving into bitcoin? Or is it about selling bitcoin because the government will crash it by selling those frozen coins?

I don’t think it’s going to go to $1M anytime soon or ever. And if it was I don’t think the us government will have that much of a global influence as you think.

I think the source that revealed that blackrock etf is approved was correct because he had some insider knowledge either working at the sec, clearing desk which added the ticker, or at blackrock. However they wanted to be anonymous.

So they leaked it but blackrock denied it right after and they obviously wouldn’t get this source to identify his real identity because he would lose his job or get sued for insider trading.

Moments ago we spiked to $35K on Coinbase and $36K on various perp bitcoin derivatives. We basically went from slightly below $30K to $35K in one day, a $5000 day. This type of day is extremely rare.

Wondering if it has anything to do with this news because that was posted hours ago and the pump happened about 30 mins back.

For the record, I am not saying it’s approved 100%. So consider this post mostly for entertainment purposes only. Don’t go 100x long on Bitcoin because I am not 100% sure it means it approved.

Basically if you go to

https://www.dtcc.com/products/cs/exchange_traded_funds_plain_new.php

And scroll down to IBTC you will find the Blackrock iShares ETF trust.

So I am guessing since it got an actual ticker…. Perhaps it’s approved.

Along with that false report last week and all this bidding on Coinbase spot it seems someone got this news early.

I think when the news is out that its approved it will have a big big rally. However when it finally goes live, we will then know for sure if it will create a huge price boom. Keep in mind that when GBTC is converted to ETF, those BTCs will finally be sold on the open market, there will be more supply in the market.

When ETH ETF launched last week, it had maybe $1 Million in trading volume, basically dead. Shows how little interest there was for an ETH ETF. So if the same happens to BTC during the ETF launch it'll be a signal its time to sell because this was nothing more than buy the rumor and sell the news.

We don’t know how Twitter is doing exactly because it’s not publicly traded. Tesla on the other hand had a weak earnings call. It seems the demand for teslas is going down even with all the price cuts and it’s not looking good.

This is one reason why they want to release a cheap Tesla for like $25K which will be small. It just seems that nobody else wants EVs anymore. Also with Teslas the insurance is usually much higher because they are more cost to get parts for since Tesla doesn’t sell to the public.

Yeah when I heard that I was thinking, "Perfect time to long again". And I couldn't believe that a couple of days later bitcoin got a huge up move while being sideways for months. The track record that the guy holds is unbelievably horrible. The fact that he is still on TV doesn't make sense.

Maybe people watch his show mostly for comedy reasons. I can't think of the many times I've seen the guy say the most ridiculous things and he also has a tendency to go on the air drunk or at least with no sleep what so ever.

Well we pretty much completely retraced that dump and we are holding on to $30K pretty much (maybe a couple hundred below at the moment) so its looking like a great sign. Since the GBTC premium is shrinking and we got JP Morgan, Coinbase, Grayscale all predicting an eventual approval, we are getting some FOMO happening right now.

I read that Bloomberg analysis are predicting a 90% approval by Jan 10 2024, which is pretty much a gauranteed acceptance unless they find some serious flaws. So I think November is looking to be a great bitcoin month.

While this is a disappointment you need to understand that Lightning network is pretty new tech and new tech is usually full of bugs. Look how many hacks are happening on the ethereum network every couple of weeks. So this is understandable. The fact is that it will get fixed as long as the soft fork passes.

Soft forks are very controversial with bitcoin, remember Segwit? So hopefully there will be enough consensus and after we patch all the bugs and holes, we can run the new code and all is well. And keep in mind this is just LN not Bitcoin itself.

Yes we have been in this range since March and it’s starting to look like a diamond pattern if you pull up the daily chart and zoom out. These patterns are hard to trade because you don’t know which way it’s going to go until it’s too late to enter. Basically if we break $32K and hold and then head towards the $35K area then we got a bullish confirmation but if we break $25k then it’s the complete opposite.

Right now all eyes are on the etf news. However with what is going on in the political world and the way bonds are trading I don’t know if there will be a massive dump of equities which might make bitcoin also decline.

Yeah you got the Bloomberg analysis along with JP Morgan saying it will be approved within a few months. We also got Coinbase saying it will be approved also in a few months. I think also Grayscale said they think it will be approved before 2024.

In my opinion the JP Morgan one is the most vital and since they brought this up it means there is a good chance it’s going to be true. Same with the Bloomberg analysis however I don’t know exactly how accurate those Bloomberg polls are exactly.

Do people still use P2P in person? I know it was big about a decade ago when Bitcoin was fairly new and there weren’t many bitcoin exchanges in certain countries. However these days it doesn’t seem like it’s worth the risk meeting a stranger and dealing with cash.

If you don’t want to KYC you can always use a bitcoin atm. Sure the fees are large but unless you are buying large sums it’s not a bad option for many. I also remember on localbitcoins there was fees also for P2P it wasn’t as low as a exchange. But not as high as a bitcoin atm.

You need to assume that any link you find on X, the older twitter that it’s most likely some scam. Especially if it’s related to crypto.

Elon musk is doing a horrible job in dealing with those scam bots and I think the old twitter had less spam. Anything crypto related usually has tons and tons of spam replies that you need to filter thru all that before you get any legit replies.

In the future, any claim like 20% gains in a day is just too good to be true and a scam.

Even though almost 80% are holding their coins there are still lots on exchanges which can be sold and unless we get real adoption it will be tough to create a supply shortage of bitcoin.

Also the higher bitcoin goes the more people will deposit back into the exchange to sell for fiat. This happened in 2021 where the higher we went the more of the long term coins started to move.

With bitcoin etf approval guesses it’s always like this. I remember during the 2016 approval of the Gemini etf there was someone who said they have great knowledge that it’s approved.

They said that why would they meet so and so at the Gemini office it they weren’t going to approve it. They wrote a post and many blindly followed it and all of a sudden it got rejected last minute.

This has been going on for years. So when the etf is finally approved, it will be hard to believe unless the news comes out of the sec.

Keep in mind that unless you are running the till, you will need to train your employees how to accept the crypto payment. Most employees have no idea how to properly make sure the funds are sent to the correct address and make sure the correct amount.

The few stores in my area that accepted it, they just had a bar code of the address and you sent the money there but the workers usually preferred to get paid in fiat because they didn’t know exactly how to do the crypto transaction.