If I understand correctly, the * on the buy side means that Bitcoinica is out of USD, so they can't execute any more long orders.
Also, I think it's safe to assume that there are lots of long orders out there on Bitcoinica that are at or above the buy price but not being executed because of the "No Reserve" issue.
So If I were to deposit some USD at Bitcoinica, would they then use that USD to execute some of those queued orders? And if I were to deposit enough USD, and there were enough orders "queued up", I could cause a rally simply by making a USD deposit but not actually doing any trading.
Is that accurate, or am I missing something?
Seems like an easy way to kick off a rally without actually committing to buying any BTC yourself. Opposite could be said as well for simply depositing BTC if the star were on the sell side.
Wow, that's smart! That could actually work _really_ well! |
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Did they ask you to pull the episode of The Good Wife?
I guess this is always a possibility but it doesn't mean their lawyers are on the site. The show just did a bit on bitcoins and the shows producers may have been monitoring the forums to see our reaction. This producer (or someone else affiliated with the show) probably saw the thread and took appropriate action. It's unfortunate but posting it on here was completely unnecessary since it was posted on the CBS website immediately after. "The video you have requested is not available for your geographic region." Yes, it was necessary. I still don't understand why the media industry treats the digital world, the internet, the old fashioned way. Geographic borders? On the internet? Really? |
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That was my 500th post btw, whee. Not a bad way to cross over to the land of heroes.
Wow, I just noticed I'm at 508 (509 including this one). Sweet  Nice I just need to donate some to get that blue shine. How much is that btw? What blue shine? |
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If anything, there's been tons of legitimate trades for media. I've seen plenty of steam and origin sales on this board.
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Did I miss something? Did Gox add margin trading recently?
You are trying to buy Bitcoins because you expect the value to go up, correct? You can do that on Gox, correct? If Bitcoinica won't let you do it, you can still do it. Just not leveraged. It's better than nothing? I guess not! LOL. He's probably already all-in Bitcoins, which means he can't buy any more. That's why he needs leverage. But if he isn't all-in yet, then yes, you are correct. He could simply buy some more at Mtgox |
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Most orders are matched internally at Bitcoinica. This does _not_ make them a bucket shop. They only allow internal trades when there's opposing positions canceling each other out. If they need to hedge, they use Mtgox. Bitcoinica does _not_ bet against their costumers.
It would not be wise to bet against customers anyway. In gambling, you know the odds in your favor. For example: roulette - 1:35 odds + your profit (two losing numbers 0 and 00). Or sports book (spreads constantly changing to keep winners vs losers even + your fee). However, we see that in "swarm theory" of trading, the collective intelligence of everyone summed tends to make better decisions than random; when summed together they will have a higher percentage of winning than a baseline and slowly extract money from the house. Agreed. But luckily there isn't a single exchange out there (yet) which abuses the unregulated market of Bitcoin to bet against their costumers. Let's hope it stays that way |
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it is important to remain agile in technical analysis.
once we saw that the triangle interpretation was not what the marked respected, we issued a short term alert, on time before the drop.
for people who got the email, but did not check their email account in time, how would you advice the best way to get alerts? thanks i would setup a gmail filter and set my smartphone to alert me when said filter receives an email. That's possible? Nice! Does this also work on iPhones? I have an Iphone 4, and although I do receive mails automatically on my phone, I sometimes miss them, only to find out I've got a mail an hour later. Could be the difference between a good trade, and a late trade Would be great if I got some kind of warning sound if I got a mail from s3052 specifically! |
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Did I miss something? Did Gox add margin trading recently?
No, you didn't miss anything. Probably a misunderstanding |
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Also, I think you should accept 1-block confirmations from customers, and perhaps even 0-block for trusted customers. Just don't allow them to withdraw funds until 6 confirmations, which would eliminate your risk.
Wow! Great idea! This would improve things by quite a bit, by improving liquidity due to faster transfers. Smart thinking! |
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i dont see any bitcoinica orders to go at mtgox, anyone see this ?
bucket shop ?
Most orders are matched internally at Bitcoinica. This does _not_ make them a bucket shop. They only allow internal trades when there's opposing positions canceling each other out. If they need to hedge, they use Mtgox. Bitcoinica does _not_ bet against their costumers. Actually, it is a bucket shop according the US definition: if an order is made, and there is no trade of the underlying security, it's a bucket shop. End of story. That said, it's a bucket shop that hedges on a larger exchange (Mt. Gox) whenever there are more orders to buy or sell than they are comfortable with holding. So you could say that they're only 20% bucket shop on some days, but anything greater than 0% would make them a bucket shop in the eyes on the SEC (were they regulated, of course). I agree betting against the customers should be illegal, but if person A wants to buy 10BTC, and person B wants to sell 10BTC, why should it be traded on Mtgox? It's still being traded, right? Between A and B, although internally (On Bitcoinica). Bitcoinica actually has that 10BTC, so it's not like they are pulling BTC out of thin air to trade with (Which I believe bucket shops do). They could let both trades go through on Mtgox, but that's just wasting 0.25% on fees that weren't necessary in the first place. |
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Great job! Well done! Is this the same as the rc1 that you posted earlier (Except for the version number change of course) or has something been changed between this release and rc1? Thanks |
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Nice blogpost! One thing: You mentioned the deleveraging at Bitcoinica, but the * is back at the buy button, which implies there are way too many longs again. What's your view on this situation? Thanks i think this has ceased to become a reliable indicator either way (meaning price rise or drop). thats b/c everyone knows about it already. I think it means we're going to see some more deleveraging. dead bodies strewn around the landscape on high volume usually means a reversal. in this situation, the * on the Buy side should mean we're going up. Yeah, but we saw high volume which pushed us down from the uptrend from the weeks/months before. Doesn't a reversal then mean we're going down instead of up in that case? what i'm referring to is the high volume on the downstroke yesterday usually means capitulation and the end of corrective wave 2. we should now be free to resume the primary uptrend. I'm quite new to all this, but it sounds good  |
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Nice blogpost! One thing: You mentioned the deleveraging at Bitcoinica, but the * is back at the buy button, which implies there are way too many longs again. What's your view on this situation? Thanks i think this has ceased to become a reliable indicator either way (meaning price rise or drop). thats b/c everyone knows about it already. I think it means we're going to see some more deleveraging. dead bodies strewn around the landscape on high volume usually means a reversal. in this situation, the * on the Buy side should mean we're going up. Yeah, but we saw high volume which pushed us down from the uptrend from the weeks/months before. Doesn't a reversal then mean we're going down instead of up in that case? |
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So let's hear some guesses for the price on
1. Jan 25
2. Feb 1
3. Mar 1
I don't do this very often, because I don't see much merit in it, but here goes... 1. Jan 25: $6.50 2. Feb 1: $7.20 3. Mar 1: $9.70 BTW I think that will take over $4M. What's your view/guess? |
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Nice blogpost! One thing: You mentioned the deleveraging at Bitcoinica, but the * is back at the buy button, which implies there are way too many longs again. What's your view on this situation? Thanks |
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i dont see any bitcoinica orders to go at mtgox, anyone see this ?
bucket shop ?
Most orders are matched internally at Bitcoinica. This does _not_ make them a bucket shop. They only allow internal trades when there's opposing positions canceling each other out. If they need to hedge, they use Mtgox. Bitcoinica does _not_ bet against their costumers. |
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Anything to take dependence off of gox is good. Even if you go independent I think you should still hedge on gox and tradehill.
And pay a 0.25% fee to Mtgox, have higher slippage risks due to slower response times and have problems with withdrawals processing because of the daily and monthly limits? The first two points will increase the spreads (so the costs) for the costumers, and the last one is downright inconvenient and borderline unacceptable. I'm all for an independent Bitcoinica exchange! |
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Bitcoin IS a penny stock in terms of fundamentals. (Market cap is only $550MM.) So how can we expect it to perform like a blue chip?
Without price rising to above $100 (That's about $9 billion market cap), we can never have a stable day.
With or without Bitcoinica, $200K is sufficient to push the price from 4.64 to 6.95 within minutes. And without Bitcoinica, that would happen too (Bitcoinica volume was insignificant during the rally you mentioned).
It's within your power to remove some of the penny stock characteristics. Not all, I give you that. May I suggest that you introduce instruments that reduce volatility in addition to those that amplify it? Like what? |
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I don't understand why people are voting Mtgox (Or Tradehill for that matter)... If it is technically possible and feasible, using more exchanges is going to be a good thing. It will increase liquidity on the other exchanges, will allow smaller spreads due to arbitrage opportunities for Bitcoinica and will stop Mtgox being a single point of failure.
In my opinion it would still be best if they would become an independent exchange though. They are the only ones currently, who have the funds, popularity and features to make this possible. It would also solve the single point of failure problem and would reduce slippage even further, because they will be able to do high frequency trading and have the least amount of response times. On top of that, they won't have to pay Mtgox a 0.25% fee on every trade, reducing spreads even further! I'm not sure what's not to like?
Edit: And they will set the bar higher, forcing the other exchanges to innovate as well!
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