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841  Local / Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesian) / Re: [DISKUSI] Tapering off The Fed akankah mempengaruhi Pasar Crypto? on: June 24, 2021, 01:07:22 PM
Kalau dari arah market kripto yang ikut crash kemarin sewaktu awal pandemi covid-19, maka ane simpulkan market kripto juga mengikuti market yang lebih besar (wallstreet). Disclaimer: cuma penerawangan saja, bukan saran finansial.

Memang tidak selalu menaikkan suku bunga dan mengurangi pembelian obligasi, namun itu hanya salah satu contoh kebijakan yang mereka lakukan selama tapering off terjadi. Jika market crypto akan mengikuti market yang lebih besar artinya dampak buruk yang terjadi di pasar modal akan berdampak juga dengan crypto, begitukah om? Bukankah saat ini, pemain crypto merasa pasarnya jauh lebih sexy daripada pasar modal karena tidak terpengaruh dengan kondisi ekonomi.
842  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Can China takeover Bitcoin network? on: June 23, 2021, 03:23:25 PM
China is a clever country not dumb. So I don't believe they will shoot themselves in the foot by erasing all association with bitcoin from their country.


For many years now when there is bitcoin, how does it mean that China has become stronger economically??? How longing and strong do they become? They think that they will continue to bully the world's finance and economy in 2021 like the conspiracy they made like on the occasion of the 2018 Lunar New Year, then they have drawn their own weaknesses and this will be a mistake. And so I think China will realize it soon when bitcoin goes to over $100k.
Although, it doesn't seem to have any links. But it has many traces that I believe it is.


The true test Benchmark of Bitcoin is El Salvador.

El Salvador is a poor country with their currency experiencing hyper inflation so they had to rely on the $US dollar meaning the country has given up its sovereignty and hope to the US who now owns El Salvador. Most people in El Salvador don't have a bank account.

Bitcoin claims that it set frees poor nations in shackles from their richer country masters.

So in 5-10 years after recently El Salvador passed a law making Bitcoin legal tender, then shall we see El Salvador becoming wealthy and looking like Switzerland within the next decade because Bitcoin has freed them from financial dependency to Financial independency. Only time will tell yeah?

If Bitcoin passes this test that we have to wait a decade to see results then other poor countries will go into Bitcoin and embrace it.

China is already a wealthy country and a clever country also so they must have bitcoins in their treasury reserves otherwise are they just relying on the tons of gold they have as insurance against the next financial global disaster?

Even though it is considered a benchmark for countries that use BTC, there will definitely be many evaluations, especially since El Salvador is a small country so it will be much easier to manage it than in a large country.  Seeing the use of energy sources that are less environmentally friendly creates new issues if in large-scale countries it is legalized.  I see this as a good policy but not very appealing to the whales.
843  Local / Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesian) / [DISKUSI] Tapering off The Fed akankah mempengaruhi Pasar Crypto? on: June 23, 2021, 02:54:23 PM
Sehubungan dengan artikel yang saya baca beberapa minggu yang lalu bahkan menjadi pembahasan BI kepada publik terkait ancaman kebijakan The Fed terdekat yaitu tapering off. Sejauh yang saya baca, Tapering Off adalah salah satu kebijakan moneter yang dilakukan Bank sentral US dalam bentuk uang ketat. Itu bermakna suku bunga The Fed akan naik, dan pengurangan pembelian obligasi oleh The Fed.

Menurut pandangan saya ini akan menjadi mimpi buruk buat obligasi nasional dan pasar modal umumnya. Kebijakan uang ketat juga akan membuat ekonomi AS melambat yg juga akan berimbas pada ekonomi kita.Jadi bukan hanya tappering off. Semua kebijakan AS utk melambatkan ekonominya; utk tujuan apapun; akan berakibat buruk pada ekonomi mikro maupun makro di Indonesia. Tambahannya, kalau suku bunga the fed naik, investor akan terbang dari Indonesia karena lebih tertarik dengan kenaikan suku bunga tsb.

Apakah kebijakan ini juga akan mempengaruhi buruk pada pasar crypto?  atau ini menjadi solusi untuk masyarakat dalam berinvestasi karena mayoritas fiat akan terpengaruh dengan kebijakan ini sehingga crypto yang terlepas dari bank sentral akan memiliki kesempatan untuk naik walau hanya beberapa persen saja.

CMIIW..
https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/investment/20210608082030-21-251271/ditakuti-jokowi-sri-mulyani-apa-itu-hantu-taper-tantrum
844  Economy / Speculation / Re: What's up with the recent decline? on: June 23, 2021, 01:54:52 PM
I'm a bit behind on the info it seems, which altcoin isn't as bad as BTC and ETH when the dump happened?  Because so far what I have seen is that if BTC drops, the overall market is red, especially altcoins that are not popular enough.  Because if you look at the market capitalization, BTC and ETH dominate around 70% so that if BTC goes down the market will also go down and vice versa, the both of coins will recover first.  CMIIW
845  Economy / Economics / Re: Amateur Traders Cause Bubbles on: June 23, 2021, 01:22:30 PM

When you decided to hold ur asset, u should be aware that hold isn't always safe ur asset but u need to use another strategy. Maybe hold can work if u buy BTC at the lower price since several years ago, but if you buy at the top price, ur asset become shit if u still hold without take average down strategy. For example, I decided to hold without take another way then I got loss so much. My unrealise gain become realise loss, and give me much hit. This is pure my mistake because didn't watch my portofolio as well.
Let me explain about that, in 2017 the price of BTC went upto 20K and lot of people also bought at that price but very sooner the price started to fall and keep falling like what you mentioned as shit but in 2021 the price went to $60K so even people who bought at the last peak price made 3x profits if they hold it until 2021 which is 300% returns for them which is actually not possible in traditional investment such as stocks,gold, etc.

So now decide that whether you are going to hold it or sell it for loss?


What you say is not entirely wrong because from your perception it is your experience.  If you are like me who saw the phenomenon in my circle of friends who bought BTC without knowledge and bought it at the highest peak of 64k USD for 600USD, currently the asset is only worth 318USD (a loss of approximately 50%).  This means that if he just holds it and lets it go he needs to wait for the price of BTC to go up by 90%.  So, it is much more difficult if he does not buy again at the lower price to reduce the difference in his losses.
846  Economy / Economics / Re: Amateur Traders Cause Bubbles on: June 22, 2021, 03:44:48 PM
What a load of rubbish.

It's as if they haven't seen the state of the real estate market and how that is the biggest bubble out of anything over the last couple of decades, almost solely driven by institutional investors and developers.

This is a blatant attack on retail investors and their ability to make decisions. The best retail investors are just as capable (if not more so) than biased Wall Street analysts that recommend stocks/funds for their own gain.
Traders and retail investors are highly manipulated but we should stand out from them if we want to be successful and it seems most people in the crypto community is not doing it that is why we are always facing the panic selling whenever the price drops a bit, but we have to get used to it and also it can be an advantage for an individual to buy the assets for cheap prices who are willing to HODL.

When you decided to hold ur asset, u should be aware that hold isn't always safe ur asset but u need to use another strategy. Maybe hold can work if u buy BTC at the lower price since several years ago, but if you buy at the top price, ur asset become shit if u still hold without take average down strategy. For example, I decided to hold without take another way then I got loss so much. My unrealise gain become realise loss, and give me much hit. This is pure my mistake because didn't watch my portofolio as well.
847  Economy / Economics / Re: Central banks around the world want to get into digital currencies on: June 22, 2021, 02:51:25 PM
Whales are manipulating the market to make sure that such a situation doesn't arise. Just when everything was looking great for Bitcoin, we have the FUD from China which crashed the prices by 20%. One thing which I have noticed about the FUD from China is that it always occur immediately after some important milestone is achieved by Bitcoin in terms of global adoption. One thing that I don't understand is the panic selling from a certain section of users after each of these FUD episodes. Have they not learnt anything from the past?
Talking about CBDC is inseparable from China's initiation in it, after BTC became hype in the community, central banks began to create new strategies to counter the threat of fiat they manage. This condition is indeed being politicized by the Chinese government to raise the image of their CBDC so that the FUD that is spread is used by the whales to manipulate prices. Today was the lowest level for BTC after the bull market ended.
848  Economy / Economics / Re: How Bitcoin Improves Financial Access And Inclusion on: June 22, 2021, 01:39:19 PM
True, diversity should be supported even in financial assets. We always shout that diversity should not be banned in life, such as the legalization of LGBTQ which is even considered taboo in some countries but the majority of the world's people support it even though it is clear that the presence of this diversity can threaten the human population regardless of whether I support or not. Returning to the initial topic that BTC exists as a diversity and the result of human creative work that provides solutions to many problems, one of which is people who are unbanked due to poverty, etc. However, because of its existence that threatens the financial system that has created a large gap between the rich and the poor due to inflation and banking manipulation, this has become a controversy among centralized economists. They voiced that BTC does not have an underlying asset even though they do not look in the mirror the money that is currently used is only guaranteed by the country's central bank. Whereas real examples of why fiat is currently not much better than BTC exist in several countries such as Venezuela, where fiat is no longer valuable even though the central bank guarantees it. Talking about diversity is very unfair in the financial system.
849  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: June 22, 2021, 12:51:20 PM
Microstrategy finally released their statement about the BTC purchased following las debt issuance:


https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1406946140344442882?s=21


I really interested to see what is the next strategy of MSTR if the price down and reach the lower level at $26.000. Whether they will hold if they lose or add some BTC again? At this time, the price of BTC is $29400, so it means that the difference is only about $3500 from MSTR's average purchase price.  If the market continues to be in a bearish condition, it is possible that the price will be below their purchase price.  The BTC support point has been crossed until it becomes the lowest level since the bull market.  Will the average down strategy be effective for now?
850  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] TradeRaceManager.com | Signature Campaign ~ Sr. Member+ Up to $60/Week on: June 21, 2021, 03:42:33 PM
Bitcointalk Profile Link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=387544
Current amount of posts(include this one):    1619
bech32 BTC Address: bc1qskffn8acumqfv662k7rh3xrftqaqalhratgjne
Amount of EARNED merit in the last 120 days: 10
851  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: June 20, 2021, 12:39:59 PM
To summarise, if bitcoin grows in value in the next few years, the amount of bitcoin they will have to sell to repay their debt is going to be only a tiny fraction of the amount of bitcoin they bought, being their debt dollar denominated.
If you think, it's the exact same scheme people were using in 2007 with housing markets: "buy a house with debt, use the house selling price to repay the debt cashing in the difference, rinse and repeat in bigger size".
The thought is scary and got me thinking of reasons why this parallel shouldn't be drawn. I'll posit that underlying assumption of The Housing Bubble was that House prices always go up. While a lot of Bitcoin enthusiasts love to have similar notions, most market participants understand that this assumption is not correct. They are mostly ready to manage their positions at the first sign of trouble. This is because Bitcoin is a far more liquid asset than housing.

Additionally, those in a position to take on debt based on Bitcoin positions are only a very few, maybe just corporations and not necessarily individual buyers as in the case of housing. Within the decentralized Lending scenario, where this is a thing on individual scale, the BTC is often over-collateralized or simply locked for a very small interest rate.

So yeah, thankfully, the similarities are few.

I want to join in this discussion, firstly I sure that MSTR management have their good strategy on their bond.  Yup, Bitcoin and House is the different kind of investment based on the liquidity, but here althought I sure that my ability to analyze their strategy is still need to be questioned, what is their next strategy if the asset value on their obligation is down and  even they are loss because their asset value is lower than their leverage.  Is it true if my mind think that they will use the next strategy such as sell their new bond to pay coupon of their previous bond?
852  Economy / Economics / Re: Is money the root of all evil as the poor to thinks? on: June 16, 2021, 11:39:11 AM
I dont think so, this is just how the way we think. When we have a strong mentality, we will not think that money is the root of all problem. We will survive of our life, and consider every problems become our challange. This is the simple way of thinking whereas if we have a weak mentality even though we are rich, the wealth will not be with us.  Those who are rich are those who are lucky in their ways and mentally.
853  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation expected as high as 4% in Apr in USA on: June 15, 2021, 02:59:39 PM
Isn't storing precious metals expensive? In my country, when you buy a gold or something in the realm, the store or banks keep them for safekeeping and you are forced to pay for safekeeping. But you are right that fiat is much worse to be stored compared to other alternatives. Also, the 4 percent is a normal number for inflation and in fact some economists are saying that the number 4 is the perfect number in terms of inflation.

You can go for gold ETF, which can be stored using a demat account. I have invested in various gold ETFs for the last 15 years, and never faced any difficulty with them. They can be purchased and sold with relative ease, unlike the case with physical gold. But obviously you need to go for the most trusted issuers and even then there is a very small chance that the fund may be confiscated or the issuer may go bankrupt. So you need to decide whether you want to go for physical gold (and the risks related to it), or to go for paper gold (with another set of risks associated with it).

This is the choice we have today.  There are many choices of instruments that can be used to avoid inflation that occurs.  Indeed, 4 percent is still considered normal and not too high.  But if it is not controlled properly then it can exceed normal limits.  This new kind of gold is still not common in society and those who are less literate find it too risky.
854  Economy / Economics / Re: Amateur Traders Cause Bubbles on: June 14, 2021, 04:02:48 PM
Well that is not really true. One of the best known bubbles out there, the "dot com bubble" was not created by people who in theory did not know what they were doing, but rather by large investment firms and large investor who just did not want to miss out on the huge internet revolution. Lots of money was lost and a large chunk of it was not the newcomer´s but rather some very speculative yet professional funds trying to get a foot in the future without any understanding of what the future was like and ignoring some critical aspects, such as the need of a company to eventually be able to produce some income.

As of today, the crowds money can only move stock with very limited liquidity. They tried a Silver squeeze and failed.

Yes I agree, bubbles are not made by those who are amateurs but those who are experts in investment management and have big pockets.  They can only spread rumors directly to move the market so that the market can be more manipulative because of them.  This is where the amateur traders, they become supporters of the issue so that it becomes a bubble.  They are not the main factor but only the supporting.  The intelligence actors are still big-pocketed players with their investment knowledge.
855  Economy / Economics / Re: George Soros and Bezos have paid almost zero taxes on: June 14, 2021, 02:24:23 PM
I've also read articles about the richest man in the US not paying his wealth tax.  Even the funniest thing is, after the data was published they took the issue of data leaking to legal action.  If the data is not leaked then people will assume that they are always good and obedient to taxes, in fact they are just rich people who are very stingy and do not want their wealth to be reduced by sharing in the development of the country.  Yes, this is human nature.  Greedy with the results of his wealth even though there is a meaning to share from excess wealth.  If the Biden government is wise, the tax policy should be tightened for the richest people in the world.
856  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Gains by Country (from Chainanalysis) on: June 14, 2021, 12:59:02 PM
The first reason is the US society have a good financial literation, how they manage their active and passive income. Its society jobs are the same as another country's society jobs, but the level of financial literation is so far different.

The first reason is that they have money!
It doesn't matter if a country has a 10 times bigger population if they have 1/5 other wages and they spend 90% on basic necessities.


If we look at the difference between China and the US, it's not just about the money they have.  Because China is also a big country even with very competitive in many ways.  Money is indeed a basic thing but it is not a contributing factor to why there is such a huge difference between US and Chinese gains.
857  Economy / Economics / Re: Xi Jinping Beats Crypto, Bitcoin Mine Closes on: June 13, 2021, 03:09:37 PM
The Chinese government will never stop in its tough policy towards world innovation. Not only for innovations in the financial sector that clearly affect the economy, for things like social media that only impact the social life of the community is strictly limited. I feel Chinese people are also very used to this kind of ban and it's not something new.
858  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Gains by Country (from Chainanalysis) on: June 13, 2021, 02:12:29 PM
For other repliers, they focused on China mostly. I looked at another side of this thread, why the US became the 1st gainer country among others? The first reason is the US society have a good financial literation, how they manage their active and passive income. Its society jobs are the same as another country's society jobs, but the level of financial literation is so far different. The second reason is the US government policy on BTC is flexible than other countries, for example, the China government policy. The government is too strict forbids their society to invest in BTC. This is just my simple view of the data which is OP shared.
859  Economy / Economics / Re: Own a house or rent one? Quick survey! on: June 12, 2021, 03:10:56 PM
If I live alone then I choose to buy a house with a loan. Because I will be looking for a side job to increase my income. But if I were married, my expenses would be much higher and 40% of the total income for the house would likely starve my family to death so renting and saving until there was enough money to buy a house in the countryside was cheaper for sure.
860  Economy / Economics / Re: Ransomware hacks linked to Crypto are killing Bitcoin slowly !! on: June 12, 2021, 02:53:00 PM
Cyber attacks linked to Crypto payments will ultimately lead to a "blanket ban" of all Crypto currencies, because this is giving the regulatory authorities the ammunition they want to ban Crypto currencies.

I will not be surprised if these hacks are government sanctioned attacks (Russia) to enable governments to instantiate these bans. (Now they have a perfect excuse to do it)  Roll Eyes
There were ransomware before crypto was a think, I do not think that it will kill bitcoin at all. There were times when people hacked into your computer and charged you a ton of stuff back when it was connected via line, and your phone bill would be in thousands of dollars because of it, I had friends who lived that and it was such a huge shock that it was basically like 6 months worth of salary as a whole, can you believe how horrible that is?

I mean if someone asked 6 months of my salary from me I do not know what to do but phone bills became that much back in the day (this was like 20-25 years ago). Did that killed the internet? Of course it did not, just because some people use something badly doesn't mean that it should be stopped, everything in life can be used for good or for bad, it doesn't mean that people will stay away from it.
Dont know on what theyre been thinking about for Bitcoin gonna die just because of these ransomewares without even thinking that it was already existing before this market had showed up.

Try to look back on that first ransomware attack at least we do have some idea.
A History of Ransomware Attacks: The Biggest and Worst Ransomware Attacks of All Time

Even though these things happen but doesnt mean that it would be the end of Bitcoin.

Yup, the analogy of this case is like this. If hacker attacks the google and ask google pay the hacker with A tesla. Is the Tesla can be banned to be produced? the victim of this criminality is BTC. The hacker use the ease which is have by BTC as their media to get advantage. I dont think that BTC is a danger but the best innovation that have been found.
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