So for example, if you can double your principal a few times before losing using martingale, then if you can withdraw > your principal you will end up ahead, but again, it just comes down to luck. The first series of bets can be the one that puts you away.
No need to use martingale it does not work and you will lose your money either way that is the name of the game you will always lose in the end and yes you may have some luck and win one day but in the end your run goods will be less than your run bads the best strategy is to have no strategy and just play to lose because you are going to anyway so anything over that is a success lol Jokes aside my strategy is to try leave with more than i enter with, slow and steady wins the race.. Yeah I agree with that lol. I'm not really one to gamble my own money, unless I'm physically at a casino which is very rare. But the way some of these sites are setup where you can generate some Bitcoin, which may represent a portion of the site's ad revenue, it is much easier to gamble with it, thinking it wasn't your money in the first place. Anyways, martingale FTMFL. |
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I think that soon the dollar will collapse. Call me crazy but the debt is growing to a massive size and banks only actually own less than 10% of what they hold. If everyone withdraws at the same time, banks would not be able to pay them out and therefore would have to file bankrupts and close, even if they say they have 10 billion dollars, they don't actually have that much. its called fractional reserve banking.
I've been thinking that the USD would collapse for several years, but in order for that to happen, there will need to be a replacement currency, so that the current USD transactions could be done by another means. With all the stimulus/QE and artificially low rates, I thought that the dollar would become devalued. I'm Canadian, so aside from investing in US markets and when traveling, I don't really "need" USD. In the past ~2.5 years, the USD has gained about 30% on the Canadian dollar. Of all the world currencies, it still seems to be the #1 pick regardless of the debt level, expansionary monetary policy and habitually low rates. |
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Volatility is what attracts most speculators, so why would it become stable?
As far as Bitcoin itself is concerned, its security is very strong.
What needs to be done to help the Bitcoin economy grow and become accepted by the masses is functionality and ease of use like Apple Pay.
The regular guy on the street won't touch Bitcoin as long as it requires him/her to be tech savvy.
That is really what needs to happen. It just needs to become user friendly, and widely accepted. I think developing countries will be where it starts to become a functional currency. |
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I called them many times to complain and they say they do provide refunds if its a real good, but not for digital goods. They allow you to deal with this but they don't provide ANY support for it. Bitcoin is direct competition to paypal except paypal knows bitcoin is better.
Yeah they seem to be taking the same stance as Blockbuster when online streaming/Netflix came along. I would think that Paypal could make a lot of money in supporting Bitcoin transactions. |
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I've read cases that the buyer says he never bought that item (because of account being compromised or whatever) so he sends the received item back (while keeping the bitcoins of course). On some cases PayPal refunds the payment after confirming the package was sent back.
Seriously there's no way to make a charge back impossible. There could be some measures to reduce the risk but there's no bullet proof method.
Weird. Do you think it's because paypal sees bitcoin as competition and doesn't want to be an avenue for bitcoin transactions?
look at paypals terms of service. they dont deal in "digital goods" and dont want you using their service to deal in them either. they also dont want bootlegged software, movies, etc being sold using paypal.
It seems like they're allowing the transactions to happen, and profiting from them, but then not providing support if the buyer deals in bad faith? If they don't deal, then they shouldn't support the listing in the first place. |
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If alien come to earth, they will be shocked by the fact that human on earth will starve just because money printer is not working
Lol. Wouldn't it be cool to see a documentary on human beings, just observing behaviour with no basic assumptions? Narrated by David Attenborough of course. Interesting.
Are you familiar with the publications of John Keynes? I bet you you'd love his ideas.
However I think this topic is more of a philosophical issue and it's not about money after all. But it's about human nature with its constant growing greed.
I haven't been a fan of the Keynesian system because like many other theories, it only works properly (to benefit the general population rather than a selective/elite group) with a benevolent government that has no self-interest. So with a responsible government, it would work a lot better, but with the current style of government, it just gives way too much power to a few people, which is constantly exploited at the cost of avg Joe. All the wars that we've had in the past few decades....would it be possible without a Keynesian system? The speculation and asset bubbles? So far, I only see libertarians wanting to move away from Keynesian economics, and they don't have a realistic chance at being elected. |
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It's often easy to make money selling Bitcoin on Ebay. What sellers do to fight chargebacks is ship a US Penny with a tracking number to the buyer. This will often discourage chargebacks and allow sellers to sell at twice or even three times the rate. People who buy Bitcoin on Ebay are really looking to purchase it with PayPal. Since Ebay and PayPal go together, it's basically the first place buyers will look. Any new buyer will think Ebay is convenient and easy PayPal conversion, so sellers are able to take advantage of this fact.
So baiscally we sell a bitcoin and then ship a penny with a tracking number to prove to paypal we actually shipped something? Paypal doesn't give a rats ass about txids, so this seems like a good solution So if there was a product that was shipped with a tracking number as part of a bitcoin purchase on ebay, then it fulfills Paypal's criteria and a chargebacks are no longer possible? |
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The math looks good, though I didn't check your calculations. There's a problem with it however: it doesn't answer your question: "what is Y?" We want to know your chance of doubling up using this system. You seem to have 2047 satoshi, since you're able to lose 11 times before busting. So in order to double up, you need to win 2047 times. The probability of winning 2047 sequences in a row is (the probability of winning one sequence) to the power of 2047. The probability of winning one sequence is (1 minus the probability of losing 11 rolls in a row), and the probability of losing 11 rolls in a row is, as you said, 0.525^11. So Y as a probability (not a percentage) is: (1 - 0.525^11)^2047 = 0.1808 So Y is 18.08%. Considerably less than 50%, and so it's a losing strategy. Most Bitcoin games (at least the ones I'm familiar with have a house edge of 1%, and so give you a 49.5% chance of doubling your stake. In that case, Y is: (1 - 0.505^11)^2047 = 0.3277, or 32.77% Much better, but still less than 50%. Interestingly, even with a 0% house edge the chance of doubling up before busting is: (1 - 0.5**11)**2047 = 0.3679 or 36.79% This came up recently and surprised me (*). How can it be less than 50% with a 0% house edge? It turns out the reason is that by the time you lose your 2047 satoshis, you've probably already won a bunch of times, and you get to keep those winnings. So it turns out you're not choosing between doubling up or busting completely, you're choosing between doubling up, and getting left with only however much you were able to win before you hit your big losing streak. So this makes me think I was wrong here: No, it's not unusual. It just has to happen less than half the time on average, due to the house edge. Otherwise this simple strategy would be profitable:
* start with X; martingale until doubling; quit
If you successfully double Y% of the time, your expected profit would be:
(Y*X - (100-Y)*X) / 100
= X(2Y - 100) / 100
which is positive exactly when 2Y > 100, ie. when Y > 50%
because I was thinking that there were only two possible outcomes: a) you double up b) you lose everything but by far the most common outcome is: c) you hit a big losing streak and can't afford to make that last bet, even though you're not bust yet What this does tell me is that in theory you should find that you are able to double up less than 37% of the time if you stop and call it a loss when you can't afford to double to make your next bet. (*) Here's where it came up before. I'm talking about a bankroll of 15 instead of 2047, and a house edge of 2.702%, but other than that it's the same issue. I found I doubled up just 38% of the time, busted only 6% of the time, and the rest of the time ended up with from 1 to 14 satoshis: Lol yeah I totally missed calculating Y - appreciate the response. Your math makes sense...I didn't realize the long-term probability would be affected so greatly by a slight change in the house edge. It's also surprising to see that the odds are still against you. I was gambling on a site with 47.5% odds to double your bet...and from 80,000 satoshi I made it up to 2,200,000 before hitting that losing streak. Given our calculations, there seems to be a lot of luck involved there. |
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I'm not sure everybody understands it, so I'll write clearly: nothing is stable in economy. Oil, coffee, currencies, everything's always goes up and down.
Like it or not, we've got to live with that.
You're right. Of course there is a spectrum of stability from absolutely unstable and volatile to perfectly stable, but I didn't mean any of those extremes. I think the USD is a relatively stable currency. I'm not a fan of fiat and think that it is managed incredibly irresponsibly with long term stimulus and artificially low interest rates. But any purchase in the States and all Oil transactions must be done in USD which artificially keeps the demand high. There is no practical alternative. If the petro dollar was removed, imagine what would happen to USD. So similarly, imagine if something like coffee had to be purchased in Bitcoin, then the number of transactions would spike, as would demand and price stability. Right now it is an optional currency but maybe at some point it will be the currency of choice...and maybe not haha  |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DwYo21LTK4Here's a 3 min video on measures/symbols and compares money vs. wealth, by (IMO) an incredible philosopher by the name of Alan Watts. I'm not sure what the forum rules are around posting videos - there is an ad on the video unfortunately, but I'm not affiliated with the uploader. It's just a clip from a much longer lecture which you can search for. Anyways, he is great at questioning basic assumptions that normally go unquestioned as we grow up and become conditioned to our particular society. Money is one of those basic assumptions, that even though it's one of the most important things to understand in today's world, the average population a) doesn't have a very good understanding of it and b) accepts that level of ignorance and doesn't feel the need to learn. I live in Toronto, and through elementary school, high school there is very little in terms of learning about the monetary system and money. I went to what is considered a top business school in the country and specialized in Finance, and still other than learning about financial/economic theories and concepts, there wasn't much in terms of learning about money or the monetary system. That was skipped as an assumption that everyone already understands it. The learning unfortunately, comes outside of the education system (at least from my experience), with personal interest and research. I'm interested to know whether anyone here has learned anything about money, monetary policy, central banks, the history of fiat money, and maybe the history of American currency over time and the different systems they had in place, how they changed from being backed by gold, partially backed by gold, not backed by anything, etc.? It seems important to know for anyone that uses money, which is everyone.
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bitcoin must be use directly as a currency to become truly stable, and set the basic for a stable economy, for this it need adoption and spreading, not people with 200k coins, and others with 0.2 btc
until then will remain volatile
Yeah, good point, and there needs to be stable demand for the currency through transactions and available to a wider range of the population. If it's mainly driven by tech-geeks and speculators, then it will likely stay volatile. |
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You mean faucets? They get ad revenue from the ads. It's not a lot but they don't pay out much either. Gambling sites have a house edge (typically 1%) so over a long period of time and across many bets, the site expects to turn a small profit.
Yeah, the revenue model behind faucets included. How does the owner of the faucet website establish the relationship with the companies advertising? Also, what is the actual ad revenue vs. cost of users solving CAPTCHAs? I'm sure there is a range, but I'd be interested to know. I'd also like to know what % of CAPTCHAs actually click on an ad, and then what % of ad clickers would actually make a purchase. The best thing is when I actually met up with a guy who also shares the same interest in bitcoin and I find that talking face to face with him also helps me to understand on a lot of thing rather than just reading alone.
Always amazing when that happens. Anyways, very diverse range of events and experiences so far sparking the initial interest in Bitcoin |
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Thanks for the link - charts are awesome for understanding the historical movement sliced and diced in so many ways Someone told me about silk road which I could believe was real. I started investigating bitcoin's then and got a bit hooked bought some erupters and started to dabble in alts and bitcoin's, eventually I ended up working for some. Yeah haha, I forgot to mention Silk Road. A friend bought some Bitcoin to make purchases and saw quite a bit of appreciation, however used it all up before the price exploded. |
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I've compiled a few useful high-level links here: www.sellingbitcoin.netBest way to learn about Bitcoin is to research the science and use the technology. The more you use it, the more you understand it in practicum and potential. Great advice. I've started using the technology, but need to do more research on the science behind it. BTW, given your name, do you ride? |
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Hi, I'd like to register for the Signature Campaign
Name: freeyourmind
Rank: Newbie
Activity: 4
Address: 1NhqetSbHGDYAnkxxrkNECFFdREZDh9JBw
Thanks!
Not sure if it makes a difference, but post count was also 4 at this time. |
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What prompted your interest in Bitcoin?
What resources did you use for educating yourself?
What are the most interesting things you learned?
What are you looking forward to learning?
I've had a passive interest in Bitcoin for a couple years now, but only recently started to learn about it actively. I am very new and have a lot to learn, but I enjoy the learning process and have enjoyed the transition from newbie to much less of a newbie on several things.
I have read some, but don't have a good understanding of the logic/framework behind mining. The most interesting thing to me is the potential functionality of Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency for that matter. At a time of such irresponsible monetary policy, it's very cool to see how Bitcoin fits into the mix and starts to enter our lives. I'm not too concerned about the speculative aspect of it and investing in it to make serious returns, although that may very well happen. It's cool to be able to access your money without having to go through a financial institution.
I'd like to get a better understanding of mining, and potential ways of generating Bitcoin. I'd even like to understand the revenue model of these CAPTCHA and gambling sites.
Looking forward to hearing your stories and learning tips!
Cheers!
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There is in theory but PayPal almost always sides with the buyer no matter how much evidence there is.
It would be quite easy to see the messages where the buyer posts his BTC address and check the blockchain and confirm the coins were sent there. It's just that PayPal doesn't want to do that.
Interesting, so it's just understood as a known glitch by Paypal and they've decided to take a passive stance on it? |
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I hope I'm putting this in the right area, sorry if not.
I see tons of people selling bitcoins (partials) at 2x-3x normal going rates. Why is that?
Or better yet, why would anyone buy those??
Thanks.
Mainly because PayPal is reversible. This causes 2 effects: 1) Sellers have to take a risk effects. For example if 25% of buyers scam the sellers then they have to increase the price more than 25%. So if they sell $1,000 worth of bitcoin for $1,300 and they lose $250 on scams then they still profit. 2) Because of this very few people risk and sell for PayPal. This reduces supply and the price is increased out of speculation. People who want to buy have fewer options and have to pay more for it. On your first point, can you elaborate on what scams would cause a seller to pay out bitcoin and not receive payment? I was also very curious about the bitcoin price on ebay, and similar to the gold/silver price, I think another factor is that the purchase can be made on credit. That usually can't be done in normal channels. For me, local silver/gold dealers do not accept credit. PayPal can be charged back. So the person who buys BTC can send the PP payment, receive the bitcoin and charge back the PayPal so he can keep both. Is there no appeal process or consequence to the buyer for doing this? |
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To your point, perhaps it has involved luck, but I don't think it's very odd for people to double their money before losing it all when following martingale.
No, it's not unusual. It just has to happen less than half the time on average, due to the house edge. Otherwise this simple strategy would be profitable: * start with X; martingale until doubling; quit If you successfully double Y% of the time, your expected profit would be: (Y*X - (100-Y)*X) / 100 = X(2Y - 100) / 100 which is positive exactly when 2Y > 100, ie. when Y > 50% ] Yeah, good point, so the question is what is Y? If I look at a high/low game with 47.5% odds of doubling your bet, after the house takes its cut, then let's say I'm willing to go 11 consecutive bets before I lose it all. Bet Total Loss1 1 2 3 4 7 8 15 16 31 32 63 64 127 128 255 256 511 512 1023 1024 2047 So assuming an initial bet of 1 satoshi, using martingale, my 11th bet would be 1024 and at that point I lose 2047 satoshi. The odds of losing 11 bets in a row is (0.525^11) = 0.0835% or 1/1197 bets. So for every 1197 bets, there will be one losing streak, on average, which will lose 2047+ on making 1196...not the best strategy in the long run. Hopefully the math makes sense - feel free to correct if I made a mistake. |
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I hope I'm putting this in the right area, sorry if not.
I see tons of people selling bitcoins (partials) at 2x-3x normal going rates. Why is that?
Or better yet, why would anyone buy those??
Thanks.
Mainly because PayPal is reversible. This causes 2 effects: 1) Sellers have to take a risk effects. For example if 25% of buyers scam the sellers then they have to increase the price more than 25%. So if they sell $1,000 worth of bitcoin for $1,300 and they lose $250 on scams then they still profit. 2) Because of this very few people risk and sell for PayPal. This reduces supply and the price is increased out of speculation. People who want to buy have fewer options and have to pay more for it. On your first point, can you elaborate on what scams would cause a seller to pay out bitcoin and not receive payment? I was also very curious about the bitcoin price on ebay, and similar to the gold/silver price, I think another factor is that the purchase can be made on credit. That usually can't be done in normal channels. For me, local silver/gold dealers do not accept credit. |
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