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I think before we have another bubble, people have to be convinced there won't be a bubble. At the same time, the bearishness right now is pretty potent, so there should be rally soon.
So I think in 2012, we'll reach a peak around the prior all-time high ($1200) and then drop back down to $500-600. That'll result in 2 years with no bubble at which time nobody will expect a bubble. That will create the raw ingredients for a bubble in 2016.
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Interesting how many people think it's going to $50000+.
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Make your prediction for the peak Bitcoin USD price of 2015.
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If any of you have heard Charlie speak - say on Lets Talk Bitcoin podcast, or elsewhere, and you are over age .... say .... 30 ... one thing is very clear about Charlie. He's young. Psychologically speaking. Just listening to him talk made that very obvious. There's a certain naivety in his thinking, which no doubt played a role. But he's probably no younger than he should be psychologically, at his age. He said a lot of things on the podcasts that he knew he shouldn't be saying, and his attorneys advised him never to say - let alone on a podcast. But he did anyway. He's got an element of recklessness in him personality-wise, and of course he has political beliefs that don't exactly give a shit about government, nor rules. So to be completely honest, what did you expect? He was just being who he is. Although I can't agree the guy harmed anyone. He said he has learned his lesson. I suppose my point is that you've got a hardcore libertarian / anarchist here who is also a bit young and inexperienced. Those are relevant factors, though they don't matter when it comes to breaking the law. He's not a martyr, but he did deserve the extremely toned-down sentence he got. He was thankful to the judge for being lenient, and I think it was a fair move on the judge's part. He could've gotten 20+ years.
-B-
Charlie is not "a hardcore libertarian / anarchist". |
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Well if you can count a wave being 300%+ longer than the other waves, and ignoring the ones you don't like, ok. You can just invent whatever system you want, but don't call it Elliot Waves. Let's have some respect for methodology. This whole thread is just make-believe-draw-lines-everywhere bullshit. Too much scribbling noise. This needs to stop.
Instead, as you can see on my pictures, which are back to back charts from the start of the bitcoin market until now, the Elliot Waves are pretty clear and respect the methodology. I don't even need to draw lines or numbers (small deviations for the 30$ and 15$ bubbles being ahead of schedule, and this summer's bubble being the most noise drowned one).
What comes up next should be a higher level wave (2015-2017) at a higher price, with the same 4 small waves spaced apart by 8 months, and then a higher level wave at lower price and the cycle is complete. The Halfening is also scheduled in early 2016, which can correspond to the top "5" peak.
Or maybe he is right and I am wrong, in which case using the correct methodology is useless for preparing for the future and we can stop posting on this thread.
How about posting a chart with labels? |
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It's fine to get a signal that results in a bad trade. No system is perfect.
What you want is:
1) More signals that result in good trades than bad ones.
2) The bad signals leading to small losses, and the good signals leading to big gains, relatively.
If you satisfy those two criteria, you'll make a lot of money and probably sleep easy at night doing so.
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yesterday bought 2100+ (11/25/2014)
today bought 4500+ (11/26/2014)
two day together, another ~ $2.5 M was added.
updated. This is most likely a single entity, and it has spent 10 million dollars just in November What do you mean? Isn't this just SecondMarket buying? |
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Looks to me like we're making a variant of a triangle formation which will take a couple of months to reach low volatility somewhere right around current prices. It should be a very bullish sign--suggesting the early stages of a new bull market.
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This market anarchist wants financial privacy, predictable money supply, and free trade among all people of the world.
Why would anyone want to buy coffee with Bitcoin? We already have centralized systems that work well for that kind of thing.
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In this scenario, the rise to $1200 was wave 5 of III, correct?
Yes, I remember. Wave 3 in this case went from $5 to $1163.
Brilliant! Note that the first is a question, and the second is a statement. In between was a clarification. |
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The (5) of III can be larger than you think. Remember when I was showing you that the large time frame 5ths are often larger than the wave-3's of the same degree, so we could be talking of a few $1000's for the top.
Yes, I remember. Wave 3 in this case went from $5 to $1163. In % terms, that's huge. Though in absolute terms, not so much. |
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It's a Gox chart, but I think I have it set up so everyone can tell where I'm going with this Red count is a completed cycle and can end anywhere above $0.05 (deal with it  ) Green is where we are still in (4) of III.  In my quoted post, I misspoke on the count I was referring to. This isn't IV to 2011's II. It's either [II] where 2011 peak was I of [ I ], OR we are in (4) of III of [ I ]. In both cases, the time spent in this correction is consistent for the wave that it is. This (4) is a little over 2x the (2) in time. Typical for a wave-4. If it's the [II], then there is no precedent to even compare it to since it's of a larger degree than Bitcoin has seen in it's short history, and can be expected to last anywhere from 38.2%-100%+ of the time it took to complete the entire rise to the $1163 top. Great, thank you. I'd been asking around for a long term count, and this helps a lot. 1) In the [II] situation, the bear market could go on a long time, and we could drop pretty far yet. But the upshot is that we still have the powerful [III] yet to come. 2) In the (4) of III of [1] situation, we should be near the end of (4) given what you said. Since (5) are typically small, we might have a IV that's similarly long (a year, since II was 6 months), and that would result in two years of essentially sideways action before V starts. |
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Aside from that, the two corrections are following a very similar path and the 4th wave of a cycle tends to be twice as long (or longer) as the 2nd wave. The bear market that led from $31.9099 to $1.994 was the wave-2 of the same degree as this correction where this correction is likely wave-4.
In this scenario, the rise to $1200 was wave 5 of III, correct? (I don't know the exact nomenclature; I'm using the rise to $32 as "I" here.) Some E-wavers are expecting another rise above $1200 to be 5, which doesn't make any sense because this current phase is so long, it should correlate to "II", the previous bear market, with the current wave being IV. |
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Jim Rickards in an interview re: China debt, global depression (lower % growth than could be achieved - the Keynesian def) and timing of the next crisis Anyways, speaking about a system reset, the last question was: Do you think such scenarios make people more optimistic about crypto currencies like Bitcoins? I see the rise of crypto-currencies as a sign of waning confidence in traditional currencies, such as the dollar. I expect the trend towards alternative currencies, such as Bitcoin, to grow as central banks continue to fail in their efforts to manipulate asset values. http://internationalfinancemagazine.com/article/The-debt-problem-in-China-is-not-hype.html#sthash.XPW1qNhD.dpufNice find. The back pedaling is almost complete. And, accordingly on Twitter, his new online store accepts bitcoin. wat!? someone should call him out on that one. Yeah, he's pretending he was always pro-Bitcoin. At least have the integrity to admit you were wrong, Jim. |
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That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.
I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".
....
So does anyone want to provide a long term E-Wave count for Bitcoin from the beginning of Bitcoin's trading history? |
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Cypherpunks were thousands, not dozens.
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1) Genuine, organic value increase is happening "under the hood". Its gradual, and over a long period.
2) People with money are OBVIOUSLY pumping and dumping on top of that "base" value price.
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If you haven't noticed the obvious trends where prices go up to .... then drop ... you haven't been paying attention.
The value of Bitcoin isnt going to rise in a spike.
The real organic value of Bitcoin is going to grow gradually over time, as adoption increases over time.
The rest? Pumps.
Buy 10-20 bitcoins you're willing to lose and play the system. There's money to be made.
-B-
That's not how it works in speculative markets. Rarely do markets move up or down in a steady fashion. They instead rise and fall in fits and spurts. Bitcoin is no different. |
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Podyx,
A word of advice. Develop your own system so you have confidence in your own decisions. It's okay to see what others are saying, and it's okay to learn from them so that you can modify your own system, but in the end, unless you have your own system, the market will chew you up. Take it from someone with nearly two decades of experience trading.
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Cool. It's v of 5 of (3) of III that I'm referring to. So if you're saying that the entire runup after the Silk Road bust was wave v, does that make the Silk Road flashcrash iv? If you don't mind, can you label wave 5 of (3) of III? (I would think the peak at 130 would be i, the Silk Road bust would be ii, the peak at 760 would be iii, the crash to 380 would be iv, and obviously, the peak at 1150 would be v.) I really appreciate your input here. The reason I'm asking these questions is to try to anticipate what (5) of III will look like and what to do with my cold storage coins.  |
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