Cross posting for hilarity.

Raize summed it up in one photo.

+1 and "already" added for emphasis.  

Pirate's suckers didn't lose their coins today they lost them weeks or months ago.  A ponzi by definition is insolvent the day it pays it's first interest payment.  While Pirate's suckers got final confirmation today (and a unofficial one 12 days ago) the actual coins were lost a long long time ago.

I find that works well.  Occasionally I feel bad about censoring so I click unignore.  That is universally a bad idea (just confirmed again right now).

Pirate stated earlier he didn't have the coins and it would take time to get them.  Reading between the lines I took that to mean he was long USD and short BTC.  Granted Pirate is a liar, a scammer, and a sociopath so that may not mean much.

Still there is no more evidence he does have the BTC than he doesn't.  200K BTC over the course of months wouldn't be much selling pressure.  Say one sold 200K BTC over 4 months that is 1,600 BTC per day.  Total market volume is ~80K BTC.  OTC is easily another 20K.  1,600 is a drop in the bucket.  Hell our company more in direct sales larger than that.

Yes there are never certainties in probability.  You could try a single private key and it just happen to be the one which controls the largest Bitcoin address.  In cryptography we would say it is "infeasible" but it "could" happen.

Similarly I could also use single CPU and out hash the entire Bitcoin network to produce a longer blockchain and execute a double spend attack.   It could happen, it is "infeasible" but it could happen.  I could try 6 hashes and find 6 blocks in a row and reverse tx 6 blocks old with <$100 in computing power.  Still even as unlikely as that is, a collision between two random 256 bit numbers is quadrillions of times less likely.

Many people have difficulty realizing how large 2^256 is.  The "small" 256 is deceptive.  Even very smart people have trouble with very large or very small numbers.

Some items to put it into context.

The age of the universe is only ~2^59 seconds.
All information on planet earth (all forms) is on the order of 300 Exabytes or ~2^69 bytes.
The known universe is roughly 46 billion light years across that is about ~2^80 miles.
The planet earth consists of only ~2^167 atoms.

While there are no certainties in probability the odds are so incredibly small it is ~0% (~ indicating roughly zero).

If you built a perfect supercomputer (as in the thermodynamic limit - physically impossible to be more efficient) and used all the matter in our solar system to construct it and powered it by a dysons sphere which at perfect efficiency capture all the energy of our star ....

you couldn't even count to 2^256 before our star burned out.  Keep in mind that is counting ( 1, 2, 3, ... 2^256) not performing ECDSA computations, hashing to get the address and looking up the balance.  

Another way to look at it ....

http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/09/the_doghouse_cr.html

That's Bruce Schneier (inventor of the Blowfish encryption algorithm and an expert on cryptography & security in general, also a favorite author of mine.   Applied Cryptography although a little dated should be REQUIRED reading for anyone looking to build secure systems).

".... until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space ..."

Yeah I think we are safe.

Matt never had any intention of repaying.  Before long the amount owed will be more than the amount Pirate owes.

Pirate didn't voluntarily default today.  He involuntarily defaulted 12 days ago when he was unable to payout withdraws requested.  Everything since then has been a dog and pony show.  One doesn't need to "declare" a default.  A default is not meeting your debt obligations.  You default by your actions.  

Pirate offered investors suckers DEMAND ACCOUNTS that means they can be withdrawn ON DEMAND without delay.  On 08/17 some accont holders made a DEMAND to withdraw their funds and that demand wasn't met.  At that instant Pirate was in default.  Period.  No ifs, ands or buts.

Not really.  Shilling is free (or even better than free if you get suckers to join the ponzi).
Matt bet was a way to cover your ass but Karma is a bitch.  Matt isn't going to pay a single bitcent. 

BFL wasn't the first FPGA to market.  Not even close.  They were 4th or maybe 5th and were the most delayed. 
They did have the best MH/$ but they also have a 7+ month delay from the promised shipping date.

Thanks gmaxwell.  We really need a "Bitcoin compendium" I learn something new everyday (ok at least once a week).

Assuming he has a large amount of USD it would be more efficient to simply take the spot price to convert the BTC debt into USD debt.   No splippage.  If the price is $10.00 USD per BTC and you got $1M you can't buy 100K BTC.  Maybe you can buy 85K BTC.  However you simply declare reapyment in USD, use the spot price as a conversion and avoid the slippage and fees.

Before those people cry "he can't do that he owes me BTC".   Read the front of a FRN.


Granted he may be holding nothing but air, in which case it doesn't really matter.  If he is hold mostly BTC well it is more efficient to repay it in BTC.  Even if someone won a lawsuit US courts can't force him to repay BTC (or gold, or rare baseball card).  Courts can simply award damages in ..... US Dollars (well technically Federal Reserve Notes).  The plaintiffs could then buy BTC with the awarded USD but they get hit with the slippage.

Now might be a good time to point out that Bitcoins Direct sells @ 1% below spot with no fees or slippage.

Makes sense to me.  That was my first (layman) analysis when I read the chatlog above.

Well that is the problem.  Pirate knows Goat doesn't have that data and likely can't get that data, not for every holder.  Some bondholders (who purchased the bonds in private) will not be willing to give up the info.  Hell every bondholder may not even login or know they need to give info before Pirate's arbitrary deadline he pulled out of his ass.

It is just a way to fuck over the victims a little bit more.  To "erase" (at least in his mind) some of the liabilities.  

It doesn't work that way, at least not in the US.  
You can only file a PETITION for bankruptcy and only a judge can discharge your debts.  An open lawsuit it going to stay the discharge.
Now maybe Pirate thinks it works this way or maybe he is just an idiot.

Also I have slammed Goat pretty hard the last couple days but Pirate actions are totally dubious here.
Technically Goat's bond is a derivative of Pirates investment.  Goat is the only investor.  That doesn't mean Goat can keep any money from Pirate but the bondholders are creditors of Goat not Pirate.  Pirate should pay Goat and then Goat disburses payments to bondholders.  My guess is Pirate is using this as a totally lame ass method to reduce his liabilities.  He thinks he can negate any debtor who's information he doesn't get before his arbitrary deadline.  It also puts Goat between a rock and a hard places.  Many of the bondholders will be demanding Goat do what Pirate asks (even if wrong) so they can at least get pennies on the dollar.  If Goat resists then he will get blamed.

TL/DR:
Pirate isn't just a scammer he is a fucking sociopath. Even in the very end he is willfully fucking over everyone,  even the bond issuers.

Crappy situation to be in Goat.  It is going to be lose-lose.

Since it is signed with the private key wouldn't he need to know the public key?

If the address has been used as an input for a tx the public key can be located in the blockchain but the public key is still needed right?

IF the address has not been used as an input for a tx the public key is not available in the blockchain.

If you haven't read it I recommend starting with Satoshi's paper:

http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

To answer you question no such thing exists.   It would be a useful thing to have and I would even donate towards one.  There is a lot of information which is currently difficult to find.  A "compendium" of sorts would be awesome.

You aren't crazy and a responsible creditor would do exactly that.  However I am sure 80% isn't in the cards.  Maybe 30% if he hasn't burned through and siphoned off too much of the capital. Traditionally ponzi have much less (maybe 10% to 15% of oustanding) when the fail.  Madoff victims recovered about 11% and that is after clawing back returns from previously paid investors.

I wasn't saying "Matt pay up".  I don't remember the exact terms of the bet but IIRC it was something like Pirate would pay in full within 3 weeks (Matt added an extra week).  I think the odds of that are now very low.  Most investors suckers are now looking to get something back.  Nobody is even entertaining the idea of being paid in full (3 weeks or 300 weeks it doesn't really matter).

BTW I never took Matt's bet mainly because the bet lacked any escrow.  No sense in betting on a counter-party failing and then taking on more counter-party risk.