i don't think this thread is fascinating. i think it represents cherry picking from RS.
RS has continued to call me a permabull since my participation here on the Forum and has criticized my buy and hold strategy. i don't agree with that characterization b/c it implies that i would have been just as likely to buy @ 260 as i was @ 1.60 when i first started buying. evidence to the contrary of this is that my average cost in is 6.50. otoh, it's not an entirely unfair characterization either.
Indeed, you were just as likely to buy at $260 as any other price. That is exactly my criticism. Your advise was to hold at $260. But advising to hold is very similar as advising to buy. The only difference between someone holding and someone buying is the transaction cost. If you decide to hold you are in fact deciding to buy, but at a little cheaper cost since you avoid transaction cost compared to someone who actually buys. And since price has gone up, and your exposure also, by advising to hold, you are advising to buy more.
the last "buy" i made was just over $10 as we were coming out of the bottom in Oct 2012. and "holding" or "stick with it" all the way up to 260 is not the same as advising to "buy". and the fact is i did not buy @ 260.
Great investors solve this 'frog cooking problem' by asking themselves, 'if I were to liquidate all my investments, the price being what it is today, would I take the same exposure as I have today?'
You say that your average buy in price was only $6 and this is evidence that you were 'not likely to buy at $260' and are not a permabull. Following this logic no one that entered in 2011 can be a permabull as they all have a much lower buy in price. This holds no water. The correct question is, did you succeed to buy on lows when you entered in 2011 or did you also bought on highs? Your track record shows that in 2011 you advised to buy near the top
($18), as well as near the bottoms (
$0.67 &
$2), and your average price ($6) suggests also you did exactly that. So if you would have entered in 2013 instead of 2011 you would indeed have actually bought at $180 also, as
you literally advised others to do.
how does this even make sense? your implications, extrapolations and assumptions are so off base. and they don't even take into account any accelerated buying into the lows. yes, i was buying on the way down from 32 but at an accelerating rate the deeper the drop went down to 2.
What's your proof that I am cherry picking when analysing your track record?
simple. one of the -1's you assigned me was the "BTFD" comment. you ignore all the "buy", "stick with it" or "hold" recommendations all the way up from 30 to 260 when we first had talked. why don't i get +1's for those? i gave you a very valid tongue in cheek argument that a daily right/wrong count of 855 to 7 could be applied to me since you believe me to be a permabull. i say tongue in cheek b/c i actually think it's a stupid argument that applies very well to a stupid thread.
here's an example of another way to look at my own trading history/recommendations. let's assume for a moment that i have been a permabull. i publish my newsletter updates at least once a day. that would mean i would be recommending buying everyday on both on up days and down days. if we use the "# of days right versus # days wrong" to assign me a +1 vs -1, the impression that RS is trying to give would be entirely different. since there have only been 7 days in Bitcoin price history that the price has been higher than today, i would have been "wrong" that many days. therefore -7 in that category. but how many days would i have been "right"? if we go back to my first buy of April 23, 2011, i would have been "right" 862-7=855 days.
thus cypherdoc, +1=855, -1=7
So if price goes to new highs all your past short term calls that proved to be wrong, become correct/good?
I strongly disagree.
I understand your long term view is that bitcoin still represents a great investment, and this was your view also at past highs, but I am not challenging those calls. I am challenging your short term calls that the price will continue to go up but ends up collapsing for many months.
Your defense that
you can't know how high it will go hence you always advised to hold is a poor defense since chances for the price to collapse are going up as the price goes up parabolically. There comes a time when the risk of loss becomes higher than the potential reward. This exact price point is up for discussion but when the price has been going up parabolically for 3 months, just 20 folded, and all other indicators are flashing red that we are in a bubble of epic proportions, it is a statistical certainty that this price point has been breached.
Sure, it can always go up even more but the risk/reward has become outright bad. That is a fact cypherdoc. Advising to hold/buy in such situation is a very poor call. No matter what the price does afterwards. Calling your newsletter '
Financial Risk Analytics' is something you failed to do when it was most important.
i think your continual criticism against the many of us around here who are long term investors who believe in a buy and hold strategy is irrational, not rational. we don't care about how you feel about a 4 mo drop or consolidation b/c we have done our homework and understand what we're dealing with. you happen to be a day trader. i am not. i used those drops as buying opportunities. i used the last drop from 32 to 2 to buy more BTC than you'll ever have. this drop i've used to buy more asic mining equipment and get involved in the Bitcoin business community.
Before the bubble popped in 2013 I asked you privately what you learned from your mistake in 2011 and you ignored my question. You still not having admitted that you made bad calls at the highs in 2011 and 2013 indicates you are incapable of critical self evaluation which will only lead you to make the same mistake again.
this is exactly my point. you continue to criticize the long term buy and hold strategists like sunnankar, vladimir and i. i didn't answer you b/c you view my accelerated buying down into the $2 bottom as a mistake. i view it as a huge win. you fail to acknowledge others viewpoints of the exact same situation (32 to 2) and (260 to 50) so why should i waste my time answering you?
Also when I first gave this criticism publicly on your thread you responded by
revealing personal communication of me when I consulted you for a private matter and payed you. This angers me and damaged my trust in you.
the only part of that communication that i revealed was what i said, nothing you said. plus, it was a response to your attack of me in my sub thread and involved an email that was over a month and a half old. besides, there was nothing in there i haven't already said in my gold threads.
let me ask you something. at the time of that email the price was around 30 and i warned you clearly we were going to have a massive breakout. which we did. the price now stands @ 146. my returns since that time using buy and hold are 146/30 or
487% (i know thezerg and dree will go off on this way of calc but this is for arguments sake).
what have your returns been with your day trading strategy? be honest.
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