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8581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market still stagnant! on: October 12, 2018, 05:37:51 PM
Its reacted to support and the market is walking like its on stilts at the moment, flat level and slowly sideways as OP says.     Really we'd rather see the market on a pogo stick bouncing upwards not this simple line across the graph.
I think its clearly got to return to a more active state to judge properly, 6500 is the target upside and the recent low remains as longer term support.    I wouldnt call it stagnant exactly but apparently there is no great struggle at this price in either direction, the break down we saw was the end of a triangle with two trends opposing.    



6500 is the 8 day average, 50 day roughly and a previous ceiling so yep thats the place to beat or jump across to really draw much of a bullish conclusion.   otherwise its wait and see
8582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2018, 05:26:13 PM
With stocks crashing by as much as 40%
Not to mention bonds! Not such a swift, apparent crash yet, but it's overdue already. A slow grind fueled by rising interest rates is pretty much unescapable by now. That's real institutional, conservative investor money mostly.

Bonds unwinding is what will devalue the currency itself since bonds are a promise to pay dollars at a future date.    The ironic situation is that because the debt pile keeps getting larger it rolls over the bonds instead of expiring and paying out that newly created money into the rest of the economy.   Bonds are dealt in 100k batches and do not easily relate to grocery prices and other ordinary trades but since everything is priced in dollars and the debt has become 21 Trillion or more and a massive influence I presume the overall effect thats understated so far is a much weaker dollar.

Market perception right now is stronger dollar, certainly compared to 2017 the dollar has not had that year long decline.   That decline partly helped BTC appear better then it has this year.    Bonds are the biggest market, stocks are a smaller consideration so far as I know so more of an indicator then a cause but I would not expect BTC initially to thrive while stocks are selling off.    I'm really looking at that bond situation or at least Dollar index for what is likely inverse to BTC strength, it is guided by perception and speculation more then trade so far.   The trade tariffs are not a positive long term but my guess is so far its helped dollar index to be stronger vs emerging markets then it might be otherwise
8583  Economy / Speculation / Re: BOTTOM? list? the real bottomcaller on: October 12, 2018, 11:16:01 AM
Quote
what is bitcoin's use case in the current environment of kyc and crack downs on crypto exchanges? I'm all ears. And don't say some GD stupid bullshit about how it's a storage of value. Underneath my mattress is a better one. Fees are way to high and way to unstable to use as a currency. What. Is. The. Use. Case.

The best use case is peer to peer globally and no I cannot as easily do this with any other system.   Fees could always be lower, I agree with efficiency being a driving force in many markets but its not especially a reason for being bearish right now.    Storing under a mattress will get your money eaten by mice, thats just an example of failure in FIAT that theres nowhere safer or better use to hold it.

KYC and exchanges are centralised websites and not directly relevant to the protocol which exists regardless of secondary uses like this.    If BTC leveraged up from those effects and they are reduced then I agree it will unwind to that extent but to presume all use of BTC is via one type of use would be simply incorrect.
The main case for BTC I think will always be by individuals and that is where the base use must be justified so that the rest of the economy and speculation that built upon that base case can then go forward and be successful or not.   I'm only going to be bullish on BTC so long as it serves the people, poor or rich in transferring and confirming value globally and easily.   Last I checked thats still a positive ongoing market for BTC.

Your argument is old really, we've heard these negatives  years ago even.    Its not that you are all wrong in naming negatives but its incorrect to assume this is an entire story for Bitcoin or even a deciding factor.    If nothing else then for every system of exchange, there is a set of positives and negatives that has to be weighed up vs the alternatives
8584  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Why People Choose Cryptocurrency? on: October 12, 2018, 10:57:54 AM
^^  I believe its actually ideal for online digital goods rather then fixed especially bulky physical items that take time to deliver.    I quite often purchase gold with crypto not for delivery but to be stored on my behalf so it works as an instant capture of the BTC and gold price at that moment in time.
BTC clearing fast and across the world is the part thats important and also low cost imo widens the possibilities and people its applicable to as a useful tool.    The volatility is a headwind but not so important for actual day to day usage on more virtual goods imo
8585  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Why People Choose Cryptocurrency? on: October 12, 2018, 10:34:06 AM
Capitalism is primarily based with the broadest section of a population which in many cases is not rich individually.   Crypto allows transactions across the world regardless of borders, politics or various restrictions.  Its more closely aligned to free movement of capital between people rather then the largest trading entities within a nation that normally determine exchange currency pricing.
8586  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [GNT] Golem Speculation on: October 12, 2018, 10:27:27 AM
Sideways after a decline is often a good call.   Before .000045 near term there is possibly some resistance looking further back to spring, at .0000268



short term that is where its topped for this moment, have to see how it develops vs that speed bump

8587  Economy / Economics / Re: Alternative currency ( paper money ) on: October 12, 2018, 09:35:13 AM
Its mostly seen as illegal to use undefined or self issued currency not minted by the government of that nation.   I've heard of a few cases where people just turn out plain metal discs and have gotten into trouble because it was seen as a kind of counterfeiting operation that undermined the tax regime.

If you want to use currency outside of your own countries, its better to take up the established currency of a sovereign nation.    In some cases you can hold a gold or silver coin that is still widely traded and accepted as valid.     I realise some will argue its perfectly fine in theory but in practise it raises eyebrows and some alarm.    Just carrying around large amounts of cash can cause forfeiture for example which is not exactly fair but common as an offfence because of the drugs trade unfortunately
8588  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What is better in poker: bluffing or playing only with good cards? on: October 12, 2018, 09:30:56 AM
Im not sure a profit occurs so often without bluffing some and of course you dont know the oppositions cards so theres always going to be guessing as to if the position is strong enough anyway.   Isnt it always the case that your good cards is only relative to the other players, so its impossible to judge precisely.
8589  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Cryptocurrency threatens governments on: October 12, 2018, 09:22:36 AM
It could be argued everything is a possible threat to government because not everyone votes or supports what a government of a country stands for.     The base line is the government power only comes from support of the people.   If a standard or utility is derived from this technology that benefits the people then its fair to assume that support and benefit will be passed on for support of the government which allows and encourages that technology.

I really have to disagree then for most advanced progressive countries they look towards technology as something which creates wealth for their citizens and enables a work saving economy beneficial to all.   The majority of governments do not see crypto as a threat even in USA where I expected opposition as they required the financing of dollars to service debt, most in politics seem to realise crypto is very popular with the people and not a threat overall.     The bad press mostly comes from just general apprehension of change I believe
8590  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live! on: October 12, 2018, 09:16:10 AM
Yet, you do not have any problem taking the money that was suppose to go to people using the faucet?
NEWS FLASH:  Freebitco IS NOT A FAUCET SITE.  It's a casino.  Faucet sites do not let you LOSE your faucet earnings, 
It qualifies as both, theres no obligation to gamble the faucet proceeds.     Also this logic is flawed from presuming the loss when it could easily result in a win.     This site has been running for so long its hard to criticise when you could have used it every day and kept the proceeds for all this time and withdrawn or accumulated interest even.   I dont think its a negative they do more then one thing and the gambling is why they are able to continue running the faucet for so long, it must be one of the longest running faucets out there.
8591  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin preparing us for the fourth Industrial revolution? on: October 12, 2018, 09:12:00 AM
We are gradually moving to the fourth industrial revolution era where three super internets converge with a digitalized window renewable energy internet and a digitalized automated GPS and soon driverless road, rail, water, and air all ride on a platform called the Internet of Things. I think without bitcoin (Cryptocurrency) the actualization of the fourth industrial revolution would be incomplete? Guys, what do you think?



Its long been speculated we cannot rely on a currency based in just one country which is the current system with most global trade done in dollars.    Bitcoin or some online secure standard is very likely to be part of what takes part of the business done worldwide though I also think we see normal FIAT national currency based in asia partly and also some return to use of gold backed value exchange.
8592  Economy / Economics / Re: The US dollar is gaining strength on: October 12, 2018, 09:06:33 AM
The US dollar is undermined long term by trade and fiscal deficit.    The strength of the dollar relates to rising rates right now but long term its easily observable at the top end of its range



The reason I do not expect strong dollar long term is that so much of the US treasury debt is financed short term not long term.   This means raising rates increases the government debt costs on every rise short term.   There is no surplus currently which would be required to undo this effect, I believe it would cause significant upset to reduce budget spending at this point.   The most likely outcome is a dollar weakened by excess supply to service that long term debt.

This in turn raises the prices for many assets and likely means BTC does not face the apparent headwind its had for much of 2017
8593  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2014 vs 2018 on: October 12, 2018, 08:40:09 AM
How can crypto go back to the good days? I fear it's only going to get worse from here, and what made crypto cool is gone forever. Wtf is the value in it now with no anonymity, no way to transfer it freely around exchanges, no volatility opportunity to increase wealth, US citizens being locked out - I think this scene is dead man walking.

No thats not really the case, the base protocol is improved if anything.    I was trading around 2014 just the same and the failure of a major exchange at that time seemed more negative then now, again it was not a failing of the protocol.
Peer to peer the crypto space remains just as able as previous years.   Centralised sites of trading is always its own risk and benefits but not a description of overall sucess or usage for BTC.   

Another point most important is that USA is not BTC, this is only one country and to me BTC was always about the billions around the world who especially do not benefit from the current banking system.    The attractions for someone in the west who can transfer instantly was always more questionable but a cheap to use network in many other countries is often not there and BTC continues to have a good base case for usage
8594  Economy / Speculation / Re: This is the big crash of 2018. on: October 12, 2018, 08:34:49 AM
The bitcoin market moving in line with stock market sell offs does not make much sense as they are totally two different asset types and not related.   The only section of that could make sense is if you examine the relationship to dollar and realise that Bitcoin price is mostly observed and traded relative to the dollar currency.    
Recently we have had a rising Dollar index and the common perception is that dollar will continue to be strong with a Federal reserve raising rates, the objection I have to this scenario is that inflation is rising and so the interest rates are purely in line not counteracting that depreciation of dollar worth.

We do not have a strong dollar and long term its very unlikely as debt is payable largely at this moving interest base rate.     Most likely is continued inflation and lagging rates which do not compensate.    So if dollar is not strong there is not especially a good headwind to either stocks or Bitcoin.

Whats most likely is that Bonds fixed at various rates of return begin to reduce in price, which means a capital outflow from that asset class. Bitcoin could easily benefit from this future liquidity as it has no fix to US dollar and is a globally traded asset not tied to any one economy or fiscal regime like US dollar treasuries
8595  Economy / Speculation / Re: This is the big crash of 2018. on: October 12, 2018, 08:06:07 AM
Thats a very long term chart just based on the presumption of a continued increase to supply:demand ratio (halvening etc.)which has roughly worked so far but cant be assumed always.   Just going on that we're below the curve and so arguably in an area to buy rather then sell overall but thats alot of confidence required to think we'll always respect that trend long term.  Also we've stayed a year or more underneath that curve previously, not everyone can hold their breath that long
8596  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Blacknet | IBO for BlackCoin | New code | PoS | No ICO on: October 12, 2018, 07:53:26 AM
The problem with alot of the networks even these newer ones is their overall cost of operation and confirmation.   If the cost to process everyday is too high then you start to exclude the widest population, the most casual users of that crypto that might otherwise hold a bit of your coin.    Since we got many billions in the world who have zero direct interest in crypto but might get involved if it was seen as useful online as a type of payment or value exchange, I think thats a big deal.   Just being popular today with speculators I dont rate so much as they will just move on, I much prefer if its possible able to include everyone to some extent.

8597  Economy / Speculation / Re: This is the big crash of 2018. on: October 12, 2018, 06:45:19 AM
This a normal move for what has already happened in 2018, its not doing anything new in this break.   Some are even optimistic on a better recovery from support here, like the the price I'm pretty neutral on that recovery and not expecting anything till we turn the moving averages upwards alot more.   Both 200 and 50, on the daily bars setup here is 50 on blue line and the higher priced is 200 up at 7200.   



The 200 day moving average is not especially negative but we are below it.  When its both rising and the price is broken above 7200 or so then I think we can be alot more optimistic.   This current sell so far hasnt meant that much, just a reset repeat
8598  Economy / Speculation / Re: Current BTC price below 8K on: October 12, 2018, 06:40:48 AM
Surprisingly, but lately Bitcoin price become stable around 6550$ and it's been almost a week now. That's why it's a good sign and the price will start after some time slowly rise.

Its broken out of a triangle down to support and then is rising from that support.  I'm told 6600 is a good target for that bounce but overall I wanted a break upwards not this reset and rewind which overall is not gaining anything overall.   Here is a chart showing that support line -

8599  Economy / Economics / Re: Smart people support Socialism. on: October 12, 2018, 12:20:23 AM
The wealthy people sabotaged the attempts at socialism.  They wanted socialism to fail around the world so they can keep their wealth and continue to dominate poor people.

Sabotaged is not a great description because any system which is going to encompass an entire country is going to require resilience and stand the test of time over many generations in order that we can draw the conclusion it has a worth and basis to value it within the laws of a country.
If socialism is that easily hijacked by a small but well funded section of society then it appears it does not qualify as safe to trust for the many millions who must work and sleep under its banner through all the stages of their lives.

Capitalism on the other hand is on the simple basis of free enterprise, available to all through human ingenuity.  At present most western countries compromised capitalism with over 50% of GDP caught in a super structure of government, thats not free enterprise


8600  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Popular Betting Strategies on: October 11, 2018, 10:26:43 PM
I dont disagree exactly but this site seems to be a lighter then directly giving out some system that would work for certain.   No bettor should assume they can read something and acquire a certain device for winning, its always going to have to be a personal buildup of knowledge and good practise.

This is the same for any guide to 'how to'  actually interpreting that into a personal method is another step beyond that.   In this case I think its just padding out ideas on betting or even just winning mindsets roughly, seems to me its alot of reading and also digesting required which is no sure win for sure and to their credit I dont see them implying that exactly

http://sportstatist.com/4-betting-lessons-from-sir-alex-ferguson/
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