At a guess, price stabilizes near 340, short term, drifts towards 325 and range trades until the next influx.

For a large accumulator, the goal should be smooth sublinear price response.  You can't help but level up the market, but you can avoid giving market makers the opportunity to recycle coins with volatility.  There is no point in buying the same coins twice, as it were, so supporting and resisting price moves is helpful.  The more time you take to buy, the shallower your limit slope can be.

I consider that noise.  The listing spike is too anomalous to be considered part of the same dynamical system - and too long ago, in the high speed world of alts.  Anyone who still owns coins from that range is an infinite horizon investor, and their coins don't move until they want a yacht or an island somewhere.

A short squeeze now would probably take us to 004 in minutes.  Won't happen though, because it would be against the interest of our large accumulator.  The offer of 100, then 500 BTC was an attempt to lure liquidity.  Probably te is converting a few hundreds of BTC to XMR.  If a squeeze started (identified by parabolic movement) te would be well advised to sell some at a gain, and perhaps add an accumulation wall.  (Although any whale competitor might take the wall, so that is risky - you don't want to end up competing and chasing price up.) Getting low prices by crashing the coin with a short squeeze and panic selling would do long-term damage to the coin.  If you are hedging your BTC, you definitely do not want that.  Our whale has demonstrated strong risk aversion by making large open bids quite deep in the book.

Most likely there is one person who is willing to take a week or two to convert 300-500 BTC.    By adding green bars and subtracting red bars you get a rough estimate of their progress.  If the resulting price momentum captures a lot of little fish in the whale's wake, we will get more BTC flowing in, maybe doubling the fuel for the rise.  I would guess this ends after 1000 BTC net imbalance is accommodated by XMR coming into the exchange.  If you had access to poloniex data you could pin the ending price within a ~5% range.

OTOH if the whale is shorting ETH right now, their fuel supply might be growing.

Adoption of XMR is miniscule.  Most holders have strong privacy interests, so very few post.  Even among those who might post, few have any reason to do so.  Some are former bitcoin maximalists, or even present maximalists who want to hedge, and would lose face by showing their hand.

The miniscule adoption levels are why XMR has 500x as much upside as bitcoin, conservatively.  The current market cap is what you get with about 2000 mostly speculative holders and 20 merchants.  (Total SWAG numbers.)

If e.g. AlphaBay added XMR you could expect price to rapidly (over a few weeks) rise to the $20-$50 level, from just that one market, disregarding speculators front-running it.  If CryptoWall gang is arrested (regardless whether they are mafiosos or intelligence agents) and the next crew demand XMR, expect another factor of 2-5x. if some Chinese guy using bitcoin to buy a South American retirement home gets a bullet for evading capital controls,  expect a factor of 5-10x short-term, and 50-100x long-term.

Almost none of those people will ever post here.  But a few more FX and I-bank types will show up, a few more pump & dump people,  a few more Mrs. Wantanabe types, and some libertarian ideologues.  Then XMR maximalists will emerge in force, journalists and academics will take interest, and nation-state politics will become involved.
That's when risk goes up to new levels.

Price stability is impossible until XMR-BTC parity has been surpassed, if only briefly.  Price stability only comes when most of the circulating XMR is servicing contractual obligations, consumption, or supply chain relationships.
When that happens, risk drops dramatically.  (Bitcoin hasn't reached this level yet.)

Then very conservative large stores of wealth will adopt XMR, and the final 20-50x factor is priced in when most of the XMR is held in long-term reserves.

Lately, the jumps come on Wednesdays and weekends.  I had to say this publicly in order to break the chain.

Long stretches of boredom punctusted with intense flurries of activity.  Very profitable periods, for those who make market conservatively.  I wonder, though... Will we ever see 300ksat again

A bid is evidence of a capability to buy in.  An ask is evidence of a capability to sell out.  Showing evidence of funds on one side does not imply funds on the other side.  One must resort to second-level gaming to infer the opposite.  Additional levels of gaming just result in compounding the inversions of logic with exponentially decreasing probability of accuracy.

500 btc would sweep the book to .004.  The offer has left the book anyhow.  The effect was an upturn in the very short-term price trend.

Sometimes a large order will result in the market fleeing the wall.  Sometimes it will result in the market seeking out the wall.  It depends on what polar flavor of liquidity is yearning to breathe free, and at what price.  So far from the top of the book, it will cause ripples, but can actually stabilize things while everyone waits for a shoe to drop.

Ethereum profits have to go somewhere.  XMR is still pretty low visibility.  I think most people discover it because of price spikes on poloniex.  Ethereum is the headline draw. XMR is the tortoise.

There was a big wall at 220k which got pulled.  Whatevs.  I mean, what is the point of a wall 30% off the market?  It did seem to discourage some buying though, when it was pulled.  I was surprised at that.  The silliness of human behaviour never ceases to amaze me.

Bitcoin will be the next Ethereum, functionally: rootstock.io

Just do a paperwallet.  Easy and secure, available now.

Othe's big win has terrible optics, but what are you gonna do?  If he wins he wins.  Of course the top winner is most likely to be someone with a lot of XMR to play with, and of course the devs are going to have XMR.  For PR sake I hope devs refrain from playing big there going forward, and in time someone else will claim the top win spot, thus repairing the optics.

Indeed, just the other night, someone placed a 100 BTC offer about 10ksat below the market, which kindly bowed down to meet him, and made return visits to 270k repeatedly, until he was completely filled after a few hours.  I am not sure just how many thousands you could pick up this way in a week, but it would likely be more than any one party should own for very long.  More often, however, FOMU overtakes them after one or two visits to their passive bid, and they chase the rest up the bid stack.

It does take a fairly large order, not too awfully far from the market, however, to entice liquidity seekers.  We monerists are a patient bunch - with the exception of a few evidently short-sighted miners, who tend to dump whatever they can scrape together, and the occasional short-seller endowed with more bravado than wisdom. That the experience of a 5x rise in 15 months, in combination with far grander ambitions for the future, can instill steely resolve into the heart of the most flaccid milquetoast punter should surprise no one.

I watched this market far too much, the past week, as the drama intrigued me so.  I hereby resolve to desist.

Monkey doesn't expect much movement, but says it should be mostly upward, what there is, barring some catalyst.  The current weekly uptrend should end pretty soon, then mostly sideways, maybe a small correction, before a stronger uptrend begins, lasting about 3 months.

12 months from now we might be close to the third month of a Trump presidency.  Or, depending on his choice of V.P., a Sarah Palin presidency.

Positive for XMR?

Just repeating, for the record: I think oil is going down over the 1-2 week period, from here.  I think Yen is actually the best hedge in fiat.  I know it's crazy.  There must be like a quintillion yen out there.  Yet Mrs. Watanabe is dialing back on risk, so what are you gonna do?  GBP might do okay too, but big brexit volatility risk, so I can't recommend it to anyone but a gambling addict.  Gold is great long-term, scary short-term.  White metals to outperform for a while.

EDIT: If you really are a gambling addict, you might buy some SUNE and VRX, to see if David Einhorn and Bill Ackman can between them succeed in enriching you.  Remember to double up with XMR if they do, although it may take so long to find out, that XMR appreciation has meanwhile left you behind.

How much did he borrow?
I'd like to know about the implied unrealized demand.

The monero.  I would bet 5:1 odds on that, if I were into chasing 20% gains, which I am not.  In fact I hold XMR:BTC at a USD mark-to-market ratio of 12:1 at present.  I consider BTC a poor hedge, but it is nice to have liquidity, and XMR just isn't cutting it on the liquidity side at this small market cap.  (Fine for buying coffee or weed or therapy or lunch in brussels, maybe some slovenian artworks, but not good for buying a hacienda in Chile, or even for shuffling between crypto-exchanges, since many don't list it yet -- but more are coming, and some major fiat/crypto exchange will surely take it up soon, maybe kraken, maybe bitfinex, maybe btc-e.)

That was so true, and quite timely.  Expect XPDXAU to outperform while gold is retracing.  But I can no longer recommend holding XPD outright long over the near- to medium-terms.

I am short *everything* except XMR and BTC right now.  Short gold, short brazil, short spus, short oil.  It's working pretty well, and if the win is quite large, I think I may finally make that big celebratory market-buy which I never got around to before.  YOLO, and all that.

I find rates too unpredictable right now to play in that sandbox, but the HYG/SPX spread compression trade is attractive.

Nothing wrong with being wrong that changing your mind can't fix . Welcome to the future of scarcity.