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861  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What's stopping people from using bitcoin? on: October 17, 2015, 01:07:45 PM
lacking of knowledge of fiat money is the major reason that people don't use bitcoin. Everyone that understand fiat money scam has already adopted bitcoin
862  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Satoshi Nakamoto WON'T win a Nobel Prize on: October 16, 2015, 04:07:29 AM
Similar to Nobel peace prize which once awarded to Obama, economy prize is very political. In fact economics is not science but politics, all the economy theory directly benefit one group of people while hurt another group of people, due to the nature of economics (resource allocation)
863  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Fees for full nodes? on: October 16, 2015, 03:57:30 AM
IMO, those who makes profit from bitcoin will have the biggest incentive to setup enterprise level full nodes: Exchanges, mining pools, mining farms, ASIC producers, wallet providers, payment processors, etc...  even those heavily invested in bitcoin should have some full node setup to indirectly support their investment
864  Economy / Economics / Re: Elasticity and inelasticity of bitcoin's supply and demand on: October 16, 2015, 02:31:26 AM
If you buy 100 coins and hold it for 10 years, they will disappear from market for 10 years, thus make the supply decrease by 100 bitcoins

If you buy 100 coins and sell them after 10 days, they will disappear from market for just 10 days, then another buyer hold it for another 10 days, and they will disappear from market for another 10 days...

So if the interval between buying and selling are days instead of years, you will need 365x more people to make the same amount of coin disappear from market for 10 years

It is clear, the supply shrink caused by high frequency trading is magnitudes lower than long term holding. But high frequency trading increase the market liquidity, some trader might trade forever for 10 years thus reaching the same result (but contributing large amount of fees)

Suppose that an exchange's daily average volume is 20K coins, then all those transactions on the exchange have the effect of removing 20K coins from circulation. However, the exchange might have a cold wallet holding 200K coins, they seldom move, causing a large decrease in supply
865  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Spending VERY Large Amounts of Bitcoin? on: October 15, 2015, 02:58:41 AM
Large value transaction will always be heavily regulated even in fiat money system, the best way to do large transactions is to borrow from the bank Cheesy
866  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Satoshi Nakamoto WON'T win a Nobel Prize on: October 14, 2015, 07:40:36 AM
"Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences" is not a prize setup by Nobel, but Swedish central bank, so its political implication is very clear: To award those theories that benefit the banking business

Similarly banks won't win a Satoshi prize
867  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: This is the privatization of Bitcoin - it already happened on: October 14, 2015, 06:47:10 AM
"Zane Tackett, director of product development at Bitfinex, noted that the ability to move funds between exchanges in seconds would make arbitrage opportunities more accessible to the trading community."

For arbitraging, the biggest lag lies in fiat money transfer, which side chain can not help at all. However, traders can build liquidity pool in each exchange to reduce the lag regardless it is fiat money or bitcoin. The reduce of liquidity requirement for bitcoin is not a big benefit since 10 minutes is already lightning fast if you comparing with fiat money's 2-5 days delay

And to achieve zero delay, exchanges could just establish their clearing channel without involving all the technical complexities in side chain: Bitfinex opens an account of 2000 coins at Btcc and Btcc opens an account of 2000 coins at Bitfinex, it does not cost them a dime and will enable a channel for daily settlement immediately
868  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Vulnerability in UPnP library used by Bitcoin Core !! on: October 13, 2015, 10:55:59 PM
"It has been verified that the vulnerability can be used to crash the application at startup by running a malicious UPnP server on the local network."  Huh
869  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will the Banking Industry kill Bitcoin and keep the Blockchain? on: October 13, 2015, 09:24:35 PM
There are only 2 types of blockchain: The bitcoin blockchain and alt-coin blockchain. If banks would like to have an alt-coin blockchain, it's up to them to do the marketing but what is the deal when they already have fiat coin
870  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Buying Bitcoin was a worst decision of my life on: October 13, 2015, 01:15:51 PM
Buy high and sell low is the way to ruin for any kind of investments, it has nothing to do with bitcoin

871  Economy / Economics / Re: Stephen Hawking: ‘technology is driving ever-increasing inequality" on: October 12, 2015, 01:52:33 PM
So, this time it is different?  Tech is gonna make much of the world poorer and more unequal despite the fact of, well, history.  You can find an individual who is worse off because they lost a job due to technology but you can't say that people of the industrialized West today aren't much better off because the buggy whip maker dies poor and broke.  The development and use of technology to better mankind is one of the hallmarks of modern civilization.  Technology wasn't always viewed this way and people like hawking should know better.

Conquer by violence or Conquer by technology or Conquer by intelligence, they are all the same, technology is just one of the tools

Hawking means that instead of everyone can have a luxurious leisure life, now 99% is working to death to serve the 1%, and when the day robot arrives, they will just become unemployed, maintain their living by social security check

Imagine that a group of multi-nation corporation that can produce almost everything that human needs, the question is that why do they need rest of the human?






872  Economy / Economics / Re: Why bitcoin will appreciate forever on: October 12, 2015, 12:46:40 PM

Ruble need a couple of years to loose it majority of his value against dollar but have you checked the BTC price it can go upto 1000+ and can come back to 100 within a couple of months.

You can't compare a small community based economy like bitcoin with the biggest nation in world (land wise), in fact it proved that how stable bitcoin is

No matter how large an economy is, there will always be large whales manipulating the market. In Ruble's case, the FED is such manipulator, they printed trillions of money, those money went to middle east and sent the oil price above $120, and then they stopped printing, crashed oil price and dragged down Ruble

So you can anticipate that exchange rate manipulation will always happen regardless how large the economy is, since the fiat money can be created at will. But in bitcoin's case, since no one can create coin out of thin air, if it is widely used, the degree of market manipulation will be magnitudes lower
873  Economy / Economics / Re: The $1 Million Dollar Bitcoin on: October 12, 2015, 05:03:06 AM
In my signature there is a detailed analysis

Even all the existing person have already fully invested in bitcoin, there are still 370,000 babies born every day. Suppose that each day same amount of person start to invest in bitcoin after they get their first job, then they are competing for those 5000 coins supply per day, they would averagely get 0.0135 coin per person per life time

Suppose that each person need $1,350,000 for a comfortable retirement, and they put all those savings into bitcoin and get 0.0135 coin, e.g. 1,350,000 satoshi, this means 1 Satoshi = 1 USD,  1 BTC will worth 100 million dollars, this might be the highest possible value bitcoin can achieve
874  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Reversion to the mean on: October 10, 2015, 04:33:03 PM
http://www.coindesk.com/could-card-networks-take-bitcoin-mainstream/

Simply sign a service agreement with VISA/Mastercard/AE and be done with the micro transaction capacity debate
875  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: The fee income is the future for bitcoin on: October 10, 2015, 04:25:00 PM
Whatever fee is decided, it MUST be below current competitor services like Western Union / Money Gram for remittance and lower than MOST banks, or people will simply use those

services and not Bitcoin. Make it too low and the miners will stop mining, make it too high, and the people will stop using it.  Tongue

The low fees are ONE of the most important advantages Bitcoin has at the moment over other payment methods.

Most of people use bitcoin for long term saving and international remittance, both are not fee sensitive. Currently the fiat money international remittance is slow and the fee is around 3% at best, much less competitive than bitcoin

When it comes to daily spending, there are already 0 fee mobile payment solutions out there, and there will be more, bitcoin is impossible to compete in that space

876  Economy / Economics / Re: Stephen Hawking: ‘technology is driving ever-increasing inequality" on: October 10, 2015, 02:44:42 PM

What's really driving inequality is the state-bank alliance (anchored by the central bank) of the modern system, that's designed to take wealth from the rest of society.  Technology or any other pro-growth (or more correctly pro-hyper-growth) mechanism is only a middleman in this process.


Exactly, the reason that technology improvement drives inequality is mainly because fiat money based economy, where you must pay some fiat money in exchange of something else, so the one who creates the fiat money will control all the productivity in the entire country

But even under a gold standard, the market based exchange would still give power to those who can mass produce useful things, eventually those producers will become the super power. Today, those producers are limited by the central bank and government regulators

877  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Man Behind Week-Long Bitcoin Attacks Reveals Himself on: October 09, 2015, 02:00:09 PM
http://statoshi.info/dashboard/db/transactions

Just one month after the coinwallet spam, here is another one. Currently my mempool is 25MB and I have not raised the minrelayfee

This proved that you must have a very small block size to make sure the network and CPU can handle this kind of spam

And I think default fee should raise to 0.0005 to make this kind of attack more expensive
878  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Reversion to the mean on: October 08, 2015, 11:46:05 PM
What level of fee people are comfortable with?

As far as I know, currently no one complains about the fee since they are almost neglectable if you are transacting anything more than 0.1 bitcoin

I tell you a real world example: A professor from china just visited me, and I told her to send me bitcoin for all her expenses so that I will give her euro to spend during her trip in Europe, and that will save her lots of time and fee from international bank transfer/exchange. But she complains a lot while she is opening an account in chinese bitcoin exchange. She doesn't want to save a couple of day's time and a couple of percent fee just because large bank makes her feel more comfortable

So you can see, even a wise professor would still not care about those fee of 3 percents when she is doing international transactions, how come the average people complain about the fee of bitcoin which is almost non-existent?

I think the pain point of fee for average people is around 5%, but the lower the education level, the higher it is. Many people trust western union to send money to their home country with ridiculously high 10+% fee, and they are still fine with it

So the fee still have magnitudes of room to rise without causing problem for adoption. And if some people think fee is too high, they would just combine several transactions and reduce the transaction frequency. So when the block is full, if everyone cut down their frequency by half, the block will immediately become half empty again. So a full block will not cause any problem for users, but will first cause problem for nodes if they have any infrastructure weakness
879  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: sending bitcoin to users in china on: October 08, 2015, 11:26:12 PM
Depends on how much bitcoin it is about, I think anyone in china can exchange 100 bitcoin without too much trouble, they have a foreign currency exchange quota of $50000 per year per person
880  Economy / Economics / Stephen Hawking: ‘technology is driving ever-increasing inequality" on: October 08, 2015, 11:03:46 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-questions-with-stephen-hawking-technology-is-driving-ever-increasing-inequality-2015-10-08

Question: Have you thought about the possibility of technological unemployment, where we develop automated processes that ultimately cause large unemployment by performing jobs faster and/or cheaper than people can perform them?

Hawking: If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality
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