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8861  Economy / Speculation / Re: zOMG SellOff! on: November 23, 2012, 10:16:07 PM
15K BTC sold from ~$5.14 to ~$4.99.

As I'm posting, the spread is so big that it actually bounced back up to $5.14 afterwards.

LOL wow a whole 15 cent spread.

hahahahaha this is funny in hind sight.

wtf, smoothie? necroposting like that is pretty low, dude. Noone notice you any more? Maybe your ignore-score is the problem.

apart from that: you have a very good point: in bitcoin, as in any other bull market, the best strategy is to hold you position on the way up.
8862  Economy / Speculation / Re: zOMG SellOff! on: November 23, 2012, 10:13:19 PM
15K BTC sold from ~$5.14 to ~$4.99.

As I'm posting, the spread is so big that it actually bounced back up to $5.14 afterwards.

LOL wow a whole 15 cent spread.

hahahahaha this is funny in hind sight.

wtf, smoothie? necroposting like that is pretty low, dude. Noone notice you any more? Maybe your ignore-score is the problem.


8863  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 23, 2012, 10:11:18 PM

its ineradicable they flood the market with fake gold bars and still the damn thing goes up

lol

and: thanks for teaching me some vocabulary.
8864  Other / Off-topic / Re: BFL Power efficiency argument fallacy on: November 23, 2012, 10:10:03 PM
Who would lose if Bitcoin went to $100 today?
Why nickel and dime the miners who are the machine?
Early people who preordered mining hardware would be screwed if BTC jumped to $100, unless they paid with fiat. People who just recently purchased pre-order hardware would be doubly screwed.

when I did the jalapeno->"little single whatever" upgrade, BFL wanted FIAT via paypal only. The jalapeno was payed in bitcoin, true, but when I buy things using bitcoin, I replenish the supply by buying more using FIAT.
8865  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold - is it really safe investment? on: November 23, 2012, 07:02:15 PM

I personally do no live my life on the expectation of apocalypse - I live it on the basis of exponential technological progress. That's why bitcoin is the future.

The real meaning of the word apocalypse is simply change.

I take this to mean "change to the status quo" and in my case, I see world economic slavery ending all around us.

It's a good thing. :-)

-p

your words my friend. let's do this!
8866  Other / Off-topic / Re: BFL Power efficiency argument fallacy on: November 23, 2012, 06:11:12 PM
just one comment: If difficulty rises exponentially (let's say it doubles every 2 weeks) a mining rig will make 50% if its lifetime profits within the first 2 weeks.

It used to be like that (sometime around Mai/June/July 2011) and I think it might be like that again.

I think an exponential trend can only be sustained for finite period of time. (Unless the price per BTC goes up with a compelling trend as well).

True, a finite period of time... but (kind-of by definition) that will be a time when a lot of people buy their rigs, so it's relevant to many. Just wanted to drop this in here anyway.
8867  Economy / Economics / Re: When I hear "people should spend all of their money" instead of saving... on: November 23, 2012, 03:35:40 PM
Hello lets all go back to basics. The reason why we are having this problem is due to the wealth being diluted through inflation. Fractional reserve banking has been banned before.

The fractional reserve banking has been allowed to run its course and it hit the iceburg in 71 and since then whatever had given a positive value to what we had in our pockets has been removed. It is now a negative value or aka debt.

How do you save in a wealth vacuum other than PM's . The problem is everyone feels this shit we have in our pocket is worth something. Actually it is worth something, its only worth paying taxes with it. I would never give up my gold or silver to pay state taxes.

Yes I know we are given interest for the currency we hold in banks but at a level that is below inflation and can't even hold a flame against their creative fees that eat away at our lives.

nuff said. BANKS ARE THE CANCER AND THE PROBLEM

If people had a place to put money that was safe and honest I think little Johnny would spend less and save more.   

"Banks are the cancer" is too simplisitc, I would differentiate a bit:

  • sound commodity money: very good
  • banks (depository and lending services with sound money): not bad
  • banks (fractionally operating) and currency not fully backed: slippery slope to bad
  • a banking cartel, fiat currencies with no backing, existence of a lender of last resort. all controlled by a small group of men: very bad

so i think we will go from the last point (we currently have this) to the first one (with bitcoin a contender for the money to be used)
8868  Economy / Economics / Re: When I hear "people should spend all of their money" instead of saving... on: November 23, 2012, 03:28:25 PM
If you save a lot of gold, then comes natural disaster, what is the use of those gold if all the factories have been wiped out in an earthquake?

I remember some old german woman on youtube being interviewed. She said something like this (paraphrasing): "Let me tell you: money is worth nothing! I tell you a story: after the war [I'm assuming WW2], my cousin and his child [or someone else, don't remember] went to a new city. After one week, they had a car and a bicycle... why? Because he had SILVER!"

After a disaster, there will be rebuilding and that requires some form of money... cigarettes, gold, silver, whatever will be used. If you have it: bingo. It's probably not going to be laundry detergant, but who knows.
8869  Economy / Economics / Re: When I hear "people should spend all of their money" instead of saving... on: November 23, 2012, 03:23:09 PM
People saying we should spend more and save less need a quick lesson in macro (Keynesian) economics.

Y = C + I + G + X

Y is total spending (GDP), C is consumption (a.k.a. consumer spending), I is investment (a.k.a. savings), G is government spending, and X is exports (less imports).

Please note that if you increase C by decreasing I, Y does not change. In other words, spending more and saving less does not increase GDP. Furthermore, growth of GDP depends on I. So, if a country wants to increase GDP, they need to increase savings and decrease spending (both consumer and government).

This assumes saving == investment. OP talked about hoarding, though, which means "putting under matress". That money is not available to the economy.

hoarding != saving
8870  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold - is it really safe investment? on: November 23, 2012, 03:19:26 PM
there doesn't have to be industrial demand for something to be valuable (*points at bitcoin*)

I think gold is safe, but maybe not a good investment.

Consider silver or bitcoin, for a collapse: water, food, cigarettes, gas,...
8871  Other / Off-topic / Re: BFL Power efficiency argument fallacy on: November 23, 2012, 02:54:25 PM
just one comment: If difficulty rises exponentially (let's say it doubles every 2 weeks) a mining rig will make 50% if its lifetime profits within the first 2 weeks.

It used to be like that (sometime around Mai/June/July 2011) and I think it might be like that again.
8872  Economy / Speculation / Re: #1 most popular Bitcoin Price Forecasts (subscribe here: bitcoinbullbear.com) on: November 23, 2012, 02:23:59 PM
Wait until the fiscal cliff guys, then you'll see a real price movement on Bitcoin.

we went off the cliff a long time ago

+1

We have been in free-fall for a while now. The impact that happens once we hit the bottom is what matters.

quick! commence opening of bitcoin parachute!



bitcoin, meep meep!
8873  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanity Pool - vanity address generator pool on: November 23, 2012, 11:20:33 AM
Mining something that's 7812 times as profitable as regular bitcoin mining is turning out to be too good to be true.

how do you come up with that number?

From Pool's main page. I calculate the mining ratio with equations that can be found here:

https://vanitypool.appspot.com/faq

currently when I start the miner, it says: 0.000008 BTC/Gkey.

using the 16MKey/s my lowly card puts out, I get: 0.000008 * 0.016*60*60*24 = 0.011 BTC/day

comparing that to 0.0896 BTC/day (300 MHash/s) traditional mining it looks to me vanity mining is currently 11% as profitable as traditionl mining.

Am I making some mistake?
8874  Other / Meta / Re: Pirate PMs on: November 23, 2012, 11:14:21 AM
Texas. It's the same IP he used in August, in fact.

Crazy, I always figured he'd use some kind of proxy.

and why would it not be a proxy?
8875  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: November 23, 2012, 10:51:18 AM

awesome, "and the blockchain goes on and on".
8876  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanity Pool - vanity address generator pool on: November 23, 2012, 10:30:09 AM
Mining something that's 7812 times as profitable as regular bitcoin mining is turning out to be too good to be true.

how do you come up with that number?
8877  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stability of bitcoin? on: November 22, 2012, 10:50:38 PM
Trust me, every person that bought at $30, has sold by now. No one could've held the investment all the way down to $2 and not have sold.

I know someone who bought at $30 and never sold. He'll simply not sell at a loss and it's not the worst way to go about it in the end.
8878  Economy / Speculation / Re: what the heck triggered that spike? on: November 22, 2012, 10:35:12 PM
wrong - no more than 15K... check the data

i think he took 2 days and 12 hours time period.

so youre both right.

how do you guys figure it was just one buyer? That makes no sense whatsoever.
8879  Economy / Speculation / Re: #1 most popular Bitcoin Price Forecasts (subscribe here: bitcoinbullbear.com) on: November 22, 2012, 10:32:24 PM
Wait until the fiscal cliff guys, then you'll see a real price movement on Bitcoin.

we went off the cliff a long time ago
8880  Economy / Economics / Re: Reserve Bank of #India Looks for Alt Reserve on: November 22, 2012, 10:16:46 PM
Quote
The governor pointed out that one alternative was to have a menu of reserve currencies. "But this cannot happen by fiat. To be a serious contender as an alternative, a currency has to fulfill some exacting criteria. It has to be fully convertible and its exchange rate should be determined by market fundamentals; It should acquire a significant share in world trade; The currency issuing country should have liquid, open and large financial markets and also the policy credibility to inspire the confidence of potential investors. In short, the 'exorbitant privilege' of a reserve currency comes with an 'exorbitant responsibility'," he said.

Sounds about right

Except a good part of the criteria are not currently being fulfilled by bitcoin:

  • fully convertible: don't know, what does that mean, exactly?
  • exchange rate determined by market: CHECK
  • there is a issuing country: FAIL
  • should acquire a significant share of world trade: FAIL
  • should have liquid financial market: MAYBE
  • should have open financial market: CHECK
  • should have large financial market: FAIL
  • policy credibility: CHECK (maybe even good enough to make lack of issuing country not an issue?)
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