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That's probably why. It will go through eventually but will take considerably longer.
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I sent a payment 1 hour and 13 minutes ago to somebody. No confirmations so my purchase hasn't gone through. I received a payment earlier at 4:26PM eastern standard time and it's now 9:20PM and there are only 25 confirmations on it. Is something wrong with the network...? surely these numbers can't be normal.
Did you add on a fee? How much? |
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I feel a meme of the Iraqi minister of information coming soon...
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I'm shorting S.DICE  its not crashing  What was your logic behind an S.DICE crash? hype, and its over valued because it seen as the only worthwhile bitcoin investment, i think soon many new IPOs will come out, and people will sell their over bought S.DICE to diversify into these new opportunists. also at anytime 10million more S.DICE units can be injected into the market  and think about it... S.DICE gets really unlucky one month, that means some big players got lucky, these big players quit while they are ahead, and S.DICE goes under. its not a sure bet that's for sure... Why do you think another 10 million shares injected would crash the price? If it is a good investment at the current price for the 1st 10% of the company, why wouldn't it be a good investment for the second 10% of the company? Because it's supply and demand. If you double the supply without increasing the demand, the price will go down. I think there should be a "at a certain price" somewhere in there. If evoorhees puts up a sell order of 10 million shares at the current price, that would not affect the amount of dividends I get from my shares next month. I don't need to qualify anything. He's talking about share price, not dividends. They are two entirely different things. Right, share price. If evoorhees puts up a sell order for a million shares, that would not necessarily drop the price of the stock. If it is worth buying, then if more share go up for sale there will just be more people buying shares. If nothing fundamentally changes other than an influx of new stock, the share price will decline. If it's worth buying then buyers would already be bidding up the current price. The current share price is the meeting of the CURRENT supply and demand. If you increase the supply side, the price will go down without additional demand. Current demand is already priced into the share price so like I said, unless there is a fundamental change to drive demand, increased supply will result in a lower share price. |
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You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?
Yep. Lots. It's just a matter of when. Interesting. Thanks for sharing. |
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I think it'll be back up.
As the price rises, tons of people come out of the woodwork and say "damn, I was thinking of buying bitcoins when they were cheap and I really missed out. If it goes back down a bit, I'm interested in some coins." (they say this directly to me, e.g. facebook, text messages, etc. and I think it's fair to say it's systemic and worldwide.)
Now the price retreats a bit, and these same people are saying, "OK, it's on its way down, it's probably not going to go any lower than $13 since it sat there for so long, so now's my best chance." They're gathering their funds right now and figuring out how to get them into bitcoins.
All their funds show up over the next week or two, they buy and hold coins. The price goes up and stays there.
You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market? It seems more likely there are big players here that pumped and dumped hoping to lure in more with that very psychology. In all fairness, my short-term targets have been far off so what the heck do I know  |
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I'm shorting S.DICE its not crashing What was your logic behind an S.DICE crash? hype, and its over valued because it seen as the only worthwhile bitcoin investment, i think soon many new IPOs will come out, and people will sell their over bought S.DICE to diversify into these new opportunists. also at anytime 10million more S.DICE units can be injected into the market and think about it... S.DICE gets really unlucky one month, that means some big players got lucky, these big players quit while they are ahead, and S.DICE goes under. its not a sure bet that's for sure... Why do you think another 10 million shares injected would crash the price? If it is a good investment at the current price for the 1st 10% of the company, why wouldn't it be a good investment for the second 10% of the company? Because it's supply and demand. If you double the supply without increasing the demand, the price will go down. I think there should be a "at a certain price" somewhere in there. If evoorhees puts up a sell order of 10 million shares at the current price, that would not affect the amount of dividends I get from my shares next month. I don't need to qualify anything. He's talking about share price, not dividends. They are two entirely different things. |
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Just goes to show how incredibly volatile the market still is despite the relative stability over the past few months. We're still very much in the "wild west" period, which is fun but also why you never put down more than you're willing to lose and be able to sleep at night.
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I'm shorting S.DICE its not crashing What was your logic behind an S.DICE crash? hype, and its over valued because it seen as the only worthwhile bitcoin investment, i think soon many new IPOs will come out, and people will sell their over bought S.DICE to diversify into these new opportunists. also at anytime 10million more S.DICE units can be injected into the market and think about it... S.DICE gets really unlucky one month, that means some big players got lucky, these big players quit while they are ahead, and S.DICE goes under. its not a sure bet that's for sure... Why do you think another 10 million shares injected would crash the price? If it is a good investment at the current price for the 1st 10% of the company, why wouldn't it be a good investment for the second 10% of the company? Because it's supply and demand. If you double the supply without increasing the demand, the price will go down. |
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What government? Bitcoin does not need any government support or permission.
No, it doesn't but it would naive to think that a large government (like the US) or a coordinated government move couldn't cause significant disruption if it felt inclined. That being said, I bet if I walked down the street and asked 10 people what silk road was, chances are 10 out of 10 would have no idea. Now if I asked those same 10 people if they knew about the Sandy Hook Elementary tragedy, I'm willing to bet 9 out of 10 would know what I'm talking about. BTC has obviously come a long ways since silk road, that's not what I'm saying, what I'm saying is politicians want votes and are too busy with bigger fish to fry (right now gun control). Until BTC becomes a mainstream nuisance that can buy votes, I don't think the politicians will care very much. A ban would just bring more attention at this point, something I doubt they want. |
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No idea, but that's a cool pic.
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What percentage does he suggest? I'm guessing less than 10% He suggests what he calls a "barbell" strategy where one is better off investing at the extreme ends of the spectrum, so hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive at the same time. He argues that investing in medium risk investments is pointless because of the difficulty in computing risk. If I were to turn that into percentages, I would say for the hyper-aggressive he's advocating 10%-20%. Again, this is my interpretation of the book. It's better if you read it yourself and adapt its strategies (if you agree with the author) to your investing strategies accordingly. |
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Thanks for introducing me to the 'black swan event' concept. I'm far from understanding it properly but reckon it's worth getting Taleb's book to check it out properly (would you recommend the original 2004 book -which I like the idea of because it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis - or the later 'The Black Swan'?). It sounds to me like one of those concepts which at first seems to describe nothing new but could well be a concept that draws to itself enough distinct characteristics so as to give the concept the power to allow us to see and understand certain things better. I read the 2008 version. I think either version you will glean the basic premise of the concept. Your use of it in the case of Bitcoin is intriguing me in that you're saying 'It will likely take some sort of black swan event in order for Bitcoin to reach [high] numbers'. An example from the Wikipedia entry of black swan events is the rise of the internet yet it is also talking about these things from the perspective of 'the observer'. To those who were around the net and playing with html in 1996 I would say the rise of the internet was not a black swan event (it was neither one prior to that because it hadn't had the global impact nor since because to those who were around its rise was not unexpected).
I'm guessing if Bitcoin rises as the internet did, with respect to the financial and political worlds who know very little about it, it will indeed be seen to have been a black swan event, yet to many of us here now there would be no major surprises were it to become massive and have huge implications on the way the financial and political worlds work. And should it do so then Bitcoin being valued at $100 and $1,000 USD are merely markers predicted and expected to be passed along the way. I think you need to take a more macro perspective. A black swan event is a rare event that cannot be predicted by trends. This doesn't mean no one can predict a black swan ahead of time, it just means the vast majority of the population does not see it coming. The reason I attribute the rise in BTC price to a black swan event is because most people here subscribe to the theory of a major fiat disruption or breakdown. That would be a considerable black swan event. Or it could be similar to the internet, a revolutionary piece of technology that is slowly adopted over time. The point is not really to try and predict what the event will be (as by definition they are nearly impossible to predict) but to acknowledge that these events do occur throughout history and invest accordingly. |
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It will likely take some sort of black swan event in order for Bitcoin to reach some of the numbers being predicted here in this thread and elsewhere on the forums. If you subscribe to this, just read Taleb's book, he even tells you what percentage of your investment portfolio should be allocated toward black swan events. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory |
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How much are you offering? Just got my invite and trying to decide if I should use it or sell.
Mate, to be honest there isn't a price established yet. I've got a few for free, a few for 0.1, 0.2, but there are people selling 'em for as high as 0.5. What would be your offer? If they're going for that cheap I'll just use my code. If it helps you out, I only signed up for the beta a few weeks ago so if you're waiting on a code, you should get one soon. Goodluck. |
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Once again i'll submit to whatever the poll tells me to. ie: If 75% say yes it means i'll allocate 75% of my avail resources to bitcoin. So you're letting total strangers decide what you're going to do with your savings? Unbelievable. |
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How much are you offering? Just got my invite and trying to decide if I should use it or sell.
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I calculate again and again and still I have not enaugh bitcoins, without my work they won't make me rich enough even with price 1000$/BTC.
Do you have same feeling?
I have a feeling you're looking for a get rich quick scheme. No matter what anyone tells you Bitcoin is still very much in its infancy and still highly speculative. With great risk can come great reward so I'm not trying to scare you off, but make sure your financial priorities are in order. People tend to make foolish decisions when they're in a panic that they're going to "miss the train." You're still an early adopter by 99% of the world's standard. Don't do something stupid like over leverage yourself to get in the game quickly. |
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