20 x $5M (nice sounding average?) x 22 (working days in a month) = $2.2 BILLION looking to make its way into the BTC market per MONTH!
$2.2B x 12 = $26.4B
At $90 (ish), we're at a $1B market cap.
Prepare for 1 BTC = $2,376.00 within 12 months. And this is just with current demand - as the price continues to rise, more and more asset managers with even larger balances will be calling and requesting to invest in BTC. $2,376 is just the bottom end. O.O
Talk to your kids about extrapolation, before someone else does. Hey, I can dream, can't I?  It appears that it is Exante that is dealing with the large loads:
"Exante, a Malta-based asset manager, set up a Bitcoin fund last year that was largely intended as a fun punt. Wealthy investors each put in $1,000 when Bitcoins were trading at $13 on the understanding they could lose the original investment. Exante predicted that public and media interest would take off when Bitcoins were trading at $100. Managing partner Gatis Eglitis claims they are now getting 20 calls a day from large asset managers looking to invest up to $100m."
If anyone here truly believes that a $100MM inflow into BTC is forthcoming, then you have clearly never been involved in the due diligence process that would precede that type of investment. The liquidity issue is a real problem as is the systematic risk. In theory there are probably several money managers that would consider BTC. But if one scratches the surface, most will quickly see that the logistics would be next to impossible. This market moves erratically at low volumes..... Tradehill dark pools... Not just Tradehill dark pool, there are many ways to buy offline, actually the "dark" market of bitcoin maybe larger than the "bright" one. Good luck finding the millions of coins needed for institutional and large hedge fund investments without driving the price to absurd heights. This little-known corporation alone has sold 250,000 bitcoins. But yes, there is no reason the price would not be driven up many-fold. Why should they expect to get them cheap? There are only so many coins, and anyone holding a large percentage of them is a potential market manipulator. Hence why they would not invest in large numbers. Do you think hedge fund managers are stupid? They typically don't chase performance. They would never indiscriminately start buying Bitcoins into the stratosphere. They already think this is a bubble..... Sure they may be doing the research now for purchases when a retracement occurs. |
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Hmmm.....how much bigger is gold's market? Can a part of gold price's erosion be attributed to ...Bitcoin?
Absolutely. That has been my contention since day one. As for proof, you haven't been listening. I'm the proof. Living proof since, what, April 2011? I'm a case where $ that would have gone into PMs did not. I was looking to diversify beyond USD (and USD-coupled instruments) and real estate about a yr+ ago. I really did not like where gold and silver were at that point; it seemed like buying in near the top. I was reintroduced to bitcoin (had dismissed it as a bubble during the 2011 media frenzy) via a Scientific American article and so the investment went here. But due to the risk at that time I invested a whole lot LESS then i should have!  I guess what I'm trying to say is goldbug conversion is great, but converting new investment is gonna make a big difference and is a lot easier... that's b/c you weren't listening to me and one time called me something like a "lunatic"?  I don't remember doing that. Searching for lunatic and my username comes up blank... you sure you have the right person? My only question around your thought processes is around USD deflation/biflation -- and by that I mean buying power against a basket of typical consumer goods that are not themselves deflating (so not consumer electronics). And I think that that boils down to you thinking that the fed has it all under control and aren't going to piss in their own well, whereas I wonder if they are stretching a rubber band too far. Its gonna snap back and flood the system with liquidity. |
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Hmmm.....how much bigger is gold's market? Can a part of gold price's erosion be attributed to ...Bitcoin?
Absolutely. That has been my contention since day one. As for proof, you haven't been listening. I'm the proof. Living proof since, what, April 2011? I'm a case where $ that would have gone into PMs did not. I was looking to diversify beyond USD (and USD-coupled instruments) and real estate about a yr+ ago. I really did not like where gold and silver were at that point; it seemed like buying in near the top. I was reintroduced to bitcoin (had dismissed it as a bubble during the 2011 media frenzy) via a Scientific American article and so the investment went here. But due to the risk at that time I invested a whole lot LESS then i should have! I guess what I'm trying to say is goldbug conversion is great, but converting new investment is gonna make a big difference and is a lot easier... |
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Where the hell is zerg?
OMFG. ZERG RUSH!!!!!!All human inspiration and invention progresses from a clever application of a natural phenomenon to a carefully designed, optimized solution to the problem. Fire becomes the gas lamp (constrained fire), the incandescent light bulb (heat without burning) which turns into LEDs (pure photon emission). Stone building blocks become reinforced concrete, and then steel I beams. Gold becomes bitcoin. Just because I want to, I'm going to use the high we hit last night. And now.....the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4): Bitcoin is 147.00. Gold is 1570.60 Bitcoin: 2622.22% Gold: -7.07% Diff: 2829% advantage Bitcoin and Growing |
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not to worry sellers will come...
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The Mt. Gox smoothing mechanism just kicked in. I heard that's why their fees are so high. Premium technology, folks. Something weird is going on... I have listentobitcoin, bitcoinity and my own database engine running and the lag is inconsistent -- different feeds lag at different times. 13k to $150 :-) |
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time for an update, zerg.  Heh, I just popped into this thread to post a teaser... I was thinking to torture you all a bit :-). But since we are all glued to the charts anyway: Bitcoin: Holy sh*t! Gold: Hammered. the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4): Bitcoin is 111.50. Gold is 1573.00 Bitcoin: 1964.81% Gold: -6.92% Diff: 2118% advantage Bitcoin and Growing |
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If you, a bitcoin newbie sitting on your ass surfing the web, think you found a problem with Bitcoin... think again. You merely found a problem with your understanding.
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Gold is not having such a good day today.  But... HOW is that POSSIBLE? Its the PURRRFECT form of money! "Experts" all agree! LOL Gold is SO easy to verify against counterfeiting. All you need is an extremely accurate scale, a graduated fish tank, and quite a lot of time.  |
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Its pretty embarrassing that the bitcoin board doesn't have a tipbot. We should make a generic tipbot backend that can be taught via plugins to scan different web formats --SMF, facebook, whatever. So it is completely unconnected to the site itself. And I'm not sure how "binding" people take bounty announcements but I would also vote to let erik off the "hook" WRT the original bounty amount. Its been a long time since the OP and there is lost opportunity if the project is not done in a timely fashion. And of course BTC has exploded  |
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With those amounts, you will have to submit identity documents and get verified to use MtGox. Not that big of a deal, but the current queue is huge, so it could potentially take months for them to process you. Bitfloor is great, but the liquidity isn't there yet. If you put down a 10k buy wall, it might show up though.
As for storing bitcoins, I would only trust an exchange if my only other option was a windows PC. Ideally, I store bitcoins offline. You can either set up a cheap linux box with armory to hold your wallet or use paper wallets or physical bitcoins.
hum maybe i will just buy a few at a time, probably not a 10k wall. just use bitinstant if they have a "high roller" deal and buy everyday for a while. I dont like the idea of wating months on end for me to get the coins. If in usa try campbx. Mail them a check. Worked gr8 4 me 1 yr ago. You may still need validate but was just few days. |
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I will post the MtGox way just because that is the way that I know. Go to http://www.dwolla.com and sign up for an account. Link your dwolla account to your bank account. (this will take a few days) Go to http://www.mtgox.com and sign up for an account. You will have to fill out a bunch of verification information (scanned drivers license, utility bill, etc). (this will take a few days) Once your dwolla account is verified, go to dwolla and add funds from your bank account. (this will take a few days) Once funds are in your dwolla account go to MtGox and do "add funds", choose dwolla. Click on the code they provide and follow the steps. You will have funds in your MtGox account at that point after a few hours up to a day or so. From there you can trade at .56% or so. Takes 1 month after dwolla signup before they let you xfer to a virtual currency exchange |
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the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin: yaaaaahoooooo!
Gold: sitting on its ass doing nothin'...
Bitcoin is 105.99. Gold is 1600.80
Bitcoin: 1862.78%
Gold: -5.28%
Diff: 1972% advantage Bitcoin and Growing
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Clearly a user might not want UTXOs to be consolidated b/c that could break privacy. And personally I think that private keys are a great way to make paper wallets so I don't see them disappearing any time soon. Many articles have been written abt how paper may actually be a more robust long-term storage then electronic formats (try to read that 8" floppy... do you even know that they existed?) so whether you agree w/ this or not it is clear that many people will.
So, how about the wallet by default does UTXO consolidation, etc, and generally allows you to access it exactly as you do today, but there is an option that allows you to create a new "wallet section" (this sort of gets you into an "expert" mode without forcing the explicit request onto you). If you create a new section (and name it something else), then private keys, UTXOs, etc do not cross the section. Also, you can select which wallet section to pay out of. You might ask why not just pop up 2 copies of the client... but there is the issue then of 2 blockchains on fully validating clients, and also why does firefox give you tabs, why do all doc programs let you open multiples at the same time. There is clear value.
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how easy would it be to buy for <100 on mtgox, send btc to these sites, and sell for 100+? seems like there is money to be made if mtgox is behind the rest of them
its kinda hard, because just because the ask at Virwox is ~$101 doesnt mean the fish are biting. ...And circling the fiat back around to Gox keeps your money out of BTC for several days which could add up to a much higher gain. You can't just put more $ in play because of the counterparty risk of having USD on these unregulated exchanges -- while impossible to quantify, is clearly much higher then holding the amount in a bank insured by a CB (although that risk assessment # is clearly changing ATM). |
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I hope someone comes along soon and takes the market off them with all the trimmings a big exchange needs for the upcoming big players, Trade Hill maybe?
The other thing we need is an easier way for new U.S. investors to get started. Coinbase would be a great service if it worked. All they ever say is, "Sorry, Coinbase has reached its maximum number of bitcoin purchases for the moment. Please try again later. We'll continue raising this limit over time." If your're willing to keep trying the button hour after hour, they might eventually allow you to buy 10 BTC per day. Whoopee. Sending international wire transfers to Japan is too expensive, both in time and money. Dwolla takes forever to set up, limits the size of your transfers, and is down today due to Dos attack. Other services seem to charge ridiculous fees, if they accept USD at all. Why all the entry barriers? I've been trying to buy bitcoins for weeks with very limited luck. Can someone tell me a good way to get USD to some exchange where I can actually buy some serious bitcoin? One thing that's stopping the growth of Bitcoin is how difficult it is to actually buy them! Try campbx in atlanta. U can mail them a check, dwolla, wire xfer |
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Quick look shows both bid and ask depth increasing. Looks like we are going to have a slug fest over the mid-90s. The numbers still favor the bulls though, so the bears will (once again) fight a losing fight that no one understands.
Hmmm... could be. But it's also the start of a long weekend. If we end the weekend Monday evening anywhere above 80, next week will be epic. Also, if we can go another weekend with out some idiot trying to dump everything and pushing the price down $30 in one go it'll be more epic. I think a lot of people are sitting hoping for another chance to buy super cheap. Hmm... its a hard call but I'm guessing no dip this weekend. Judging by the recent time of day of the price appreciation and which market are leading the charge, USA seems to be selling more volume then buying. Which makes sense b/c (I've heard) they had the most coins. So a distribution is to be expected. There's enough fiat on the exchange. And lots of buyers primed to catch a flash crash since we had a big one recently. So we'll have a lot of sellers who are too busy with church and family, etc to be making BTC decisions, and a lot of net buyers (Asia and Europe to a lesser extent) who are still raring to go! |
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On the other hand, at that time it was a well known and highly publicized fact that if you added up all the projections of all the companies in some market, you'd end up with a total market size many orders of magnitude higher then the most optimistic projection for that market. That is, looking at an entire market, 95% of the companies had to fail. But people still invested b/c they thought that THEIR company would be the one to succeed.
Today's equivalent would be if LiteCoin, NVC, terracoin, and 20 others ALL were trading near 10000 USD and the summation of all these coins' market caps was 10x the size of the projected sum of the online payment, gambling and PM valuations 5 years from now.
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