Surprisingly bullish  (relatively) view by stock trader on BTC, just watching their live facebook talk



They dont see this as fatalistic or 'done and dusted' move.    Roughly described as an indecisive area until we lose 6400 to confirm a break.   I'll have to watch this back and revise exactly how they intend that interpretation but I agree in general terms the move is still arrested not really moving like I'd expect a genuine break


China has the 'problem' of rising wages, Vietnam now undercuts China for general labour costs.   I imagine you will find some very cheap opportunities in Vietnam however its most definitely communist and not a good currency base.   I hear they buy houses by agreeing a price in gold bars, who knows they might take BTC could be ideal

I dont use the words scam or similar but failure is quite normal in possibilities, I dont know thats whats happened.  Communication of events and advance in the protocol usage is going to be vital to part of establishing something of this depth and range.
Sometimes media exposure is the most important part of the success overall of a launch.   Maybe they were blocked in this to some extent by sanctions and actually other parts are proceeding, I dont know and people assume the worst of course.
I had hoped the whole thing could be a positive for the people however unlikely that might appear to some its possible for inadvertent positives to occur, the magic of the blockchain however people might disagree on the technical details used it could have been a developing situation leading to secondary progress.   At this point if they were having problems I would just hope the country is using crypto far more and stops trying to restrict the freedom of its people to adapt to difficulties they encounter just doing normal trade.   Let them use crypto, it may be growth which is badly needed and technology can be a surprising positive resource, unclip the wings of those that might fly.  
afaik it would be unique to have a crypto national currency so would be sad from that aspect to hear nothing about its progress

On an imgur link, if you add g just before the .jpg then it posts the smaller resized version.  Thats a default option, so  graphg.jpg   would be smaller then graph.jpg the original
Or can just post the link itself of course.

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FDfYDvEAU8AAYmmA.jpg&t=589&c=7yVC--rznvWk4A

With this one, a price can cross trend line but it must close below to have greater significance.   Dont know if thats the case there but its not been a full day yet.  

I already had it below a trend from this time last year (the diagonal line on the graph) but I also expected better confirmation of that break.  So close below and then find previous trend as a ceiling

I hope to see more of these threads, please write how something must happen.   Its a great sign it probably wont.    Its very hard to assess the overall consensus feeling for BTC because its so diverse and distributed across the globe.

That positive decentralisation also makes it a snake with many heads, not easy to see exactly where it'll move next.   I will need more convincing then just exchange pricing, I think thats the tail that is following a direction set in motion by other means and reasons.

In any other market, whales swim in a very big ocean.  They do not set tides despite their appearance to us as large they are just the largest visible occupants.    Point me to the moon
I do keep reading about how about all prices in BTC are not real but also it has the lowest number of big holders of all the crypto blockchains.   I do not believe 'whale' anything tbh, keep looking

In commodities 10% I rate as a very possible move, I dont know its correct place but thats where I place BTC in volatility for comparison.    So the way oil can spike on changes, big politics and all that, it seems to fit the background to what might drive BTC also.  
Oil is going up btw because Venezuela and couple other places are underperforming (greatly).   Yea OPEC restricted production some but these other factors have been a tail wind that helped oil higher rather then opposed which was very possible.  Iraq for example has production and reserves could in theory out size Saudi Arabia, long term oil should not spike but of course dollar is weak.   Theres always story behind price movements, unintentional usually.
When Venezuela falls over, its probably a sell for oil longs only then


Whales dont determine the market despite their size.  If BTC is all about the largest elements being the most important factor then Im in the wrong place anyway and I dont expect crypto to amount to much in that case.   Capitalism itself is capital and production with the people, not top down evil Megacorp like most people think how capitalism must be a negative.  Thats all we know within this generation or so but a correct economy would be from bottom up.   Even now you shouldn't have to go far to find that the fastest growth will always come from the smallest participants in a market, people, small enterprise and so on.  

It really is not about the whales, I hope BTC reflects that and is better engaged with capitalism then dollar and the fractional reserve global system of value it has become.   If it BTC is a better match it will rise, all this price dancing about is not a determiner and the largest whale on an exchange is just a side show to a far larger global picture of trade and growth from people not government spending/debt

Very publicly selling into an exchange order book in-excess not distributed would be a great way to produce a lower price then privately exchanging the coins to another holder which would make little difference to the wider exchange pricing.
It could be the viewers are being played for a game where that person buys back their stake during the fall and with a lower price.     There was resistance and maybe they thought this was the most profitable way.  90k holding could be a managed fund, I presume that means a strategy is underway to its dealings.

Loss of momentum I thought was one signal.   Not absolute or perfectly clear but it encountered resistance probably on a few peoples screens.   One of them held alot of BTC and thought it'd be worth a sell, for all I know they are buying it back as we speak

I've been following the blue line on this chart as a momentum measure, whether we bullish or bearish from the last time we were at this price in early April.     Right now I'd just call it a reset, nothing more complicated then that

In really basic terms with a rising population of Bitcoin users the price is less relevant then the basic supply and demand.    More demand and declining supply so yea buy, double check you believe utility of BTC justifies the view of a rising population of users but if you do this advice is perfectly reasonable.

I think price on the exchange is seperate to other factors.  We had VISA deny transactions for many hours across its network nationally the other day, a major failure.   All those people stranded on toll roads and petrol stations without money did have mobile phones, an ideal situation for a crypto transfer; highlighting the benefits to alternate global networks.    We still big questions and upsets in global politics ongoing that relates to USD remaining a global reserve, allowing other competitors to likely appreciate.    A possible repeat of the 1930's trade war/tariffs that likely caused the great recession, that could be a really bad trigger.  Where as Bitcoin is not political currency.  Bitcoin transcends various regimes and their self bias.
  
However none of the long term means we have to rise here particularly but I think to average into a price is fine.    Its a general investment strategy.    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

I wish I had done this in Intel for example.  I do own some at a good price, but I should have bought into growth and now be averaging out as its a very high price now.    BTC has growth similarly

The hash rate scares me, all that money being poured into serving the network.     Im all for efficiency driven competition, the network has to stay cheap vs competitors to use so I dont want to see them with higher costs from big R&D on asic.   I guess it'll work itself out in some way
https://thecryptograph.net/sec-says-bitcoin-can-replace-sovereign-currencies-not-security-but-icos-are/

This seems massive news, taxing every single transaction and exchange of crypto is basically criminalising a population because normal people cant be paying accountants to do their books because they bought a bottle of shampoo with bitcoin.   Seems there is conflicting ideas and it cant be that people suffer from just doing normal things.

Roughly bullish action, 7720 as a short term cap and 7370 seems a good base.  yea I have 7720 already drawn in as a fib line, that'd make 8043 target upside initially

There is space for both but obviously growth requires development of the protocol, usage and interaction across the community.   People tend to have a rigid idea of a concept rather anticipating how it might change and evolve.   Only a lack of imagination would say crypto is just for gambling, too many think you must hold a whole bitcoin to take part when it is not tied down like that.
   Growth mostly relies on efficiency and adaption so any business can take part, since we have much lower fees proceeding through 2018 I'm more optimistic of growth then I was last year regardless of price action.

What is this nonsense ?  Have you ever crossed a road, you took a risk in doing so but it was necessary.    Your whole life involves risk, you must gamble your time on ventures which may not work out.     How is any of that deadly for certain, its not its just a normal life challenge.

Gambling separately for money is not a certain negative, neither online or traditionally.   Most games relate to some part of thinking or activity in other parts of life, I see gambling as part of that.

and yet Im not following Luke Dash on twitter, my mistake.   We should have an official list for twitter resource/news, the platform allows lists to be shared.  My own list is very loosely collected though and not double checked

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/De4nfriUYAAImnh.jpg
well luckily I dont take everything I read unquestioned so I dont have a problem with the random feed, clearly he has a method there somewhere.  I've heard quite a few denounce democracy on the basis of poor education and misdirection of the masses.  I think its probably the best system though its path might be ironic and failure is a natural process within that.




Drawing in a support line on the daily which I think relates to finding a bottom here.  Was the top early November and has had weight in previous action similarly I think

I'll swap memes with you.    The bottom is a process not an event, we see it in rear view maybe but rarely ahead.    So theres uncertainty for sure still, nothing is free of risk.

'The Bear'   is not one person, we are all the bear and we are all the bull.    I really hope one person isnt this market or I've completely misunderstood its potential.   We all have doubts, that part is my bear :p

Institutions are mostly tied to the dollar economy, which is leveraged and liable to recede like a tide.   I dont really look to them for growth, more likely and far more true is they look to us for growth.    The biggest growth comes from the smallest participants, its ironic but a recognised phenomena.   I do hope Bitcoin is about the small guy, is we have more of those type I'm optimistic

Lots of barts.  Reversion to mean more then any breakout move seems to be the case still



Oh what basis is it broken, I thought Nash was about game theory in competitive markets which would include variation not the idea of perfection or declaring impossible absolutes

Thanks for the spot

lol you are going way over the top there.   Alcohol is legal most places yet is a form of poison and dehydrates a person in even small amounts, yet society continues anyway and derives some benefits.  Gambling is part of life because everyone must take risks in what they do , this part is normal.    To have a gambling industry for sport or entertainment is not destructive, there is no certain conclusion there.

The main deal is not to anything to excess, alcohol, gambling even food can be a negative if you develop negative habits.   All in moderation are fine to take part in.

Yep but modern manufacturing doesnt require alot of gold apparently, its become far less though I should look for a source.

Heres a couple of pie charts, showing how silver is almost like an oppisite in its industrial emphasis.   In a way its good to have solid uses but also it provides interference to the price when recession occurs




We're back above the MA blue line for BTC momentum, its flat but generally seems constructive with higher lows.   Sideways after a fall can surprise some by effectively being a positive I find, still hear people being negative when its not going down. 

I'd expect a fakeout first, a last call for a sell, people give up.  Then you have the bottom and a rise, market usually tries to trick us many times


Gold is isolated from direct factors of economic growth but silver is an industrial metal so I agree they are not twins, its a weak relation

The Hunt Brothers had a giant counter to their plans, a strong and capable Federal reserve.   This is like the biggest most relevant point to knowing this history, compare Fed and Fiscal debt and perhaps trade balance to now.    In the 1980's the Fed raised rates to 15%

Thats a giant return for simply holding the debt of the country you live in and pay taxes to.   Its not a hard bet to just side with that, of course the FED got control.    Silver was not in use enough to be a challenger plus the Saudis do sell oil in dollars, thats a big backing plus everyone else.

So the situation now is the FED cannot ever raise rates this high.   The average term of debt owed over 20 trillion by government is just 4 years.   Raising rates this high would mean every cent spent in the white house budget would be interest payments.     Its an insolvent situation, same deal as you read with Greek or similar spikes.

What is going to happen this time is the debt is repaid with newly printed money.  The path of least resistance, I dont have to be anti government, anti anyone this is just the gravity of the situation, water rolls down hill and the economy is going to be shaped by the simple dynamic of too much debt and a weak Fed policy vs inflation.

Knowing history is great indicator to the future but various factors have developed further since then.    So far as I know people expect a strong Fed to control the situation just like previously but its impossible when there is a fiscal deficit and no possible surplus to repay debt.

The best time to quit a gamble would be after a win not a loss to be honest.  However if you no longer have a strategy to proceed with and especially if not having any fun then sure, just dont come back without fixing those two things first.    I think quitting without the resolve to alter a situation can just mean people return without a better attitude and do not do any better.  A break can be productive also

Theres nothing certain in addiction, the vast majority of players are completely casual.  This effect is over estimated, most do not believe in the game to this extent.    Quite a few expect to lose but just like the idea, similar to a fairground sideshow.   How many get addicted to that, not many because most dont try to win that hard or celebrate that massively on every victory.

Thats the big thing really, if you play the game as intended just as a small distraction from life for an evening then its going to be fine.    Arguably going out to a casino is far more of a wider experience and entertainment.   Online you might more easily meet the hardcore who have to win or dont have any fun then maybe your point is closer to true