This outlines why obvious conclusions are wrong.  I can make money shorting or betting against bitcoin, maybe half a dozen providers will allow me to do this with very little capital required by myself.   Free money if all its going to do is go down.
Even better the profits from such a bet is tax free, great I live in a really liberal part of the world that does not mind me winning bets.  They tax the company instead and like I say theres half a dozen opportunties for me to short bitcoin.

However I'm not short Bitcoin even on a 'sure thing'   Mostly I cannot do this knowing markets do not move in simple straight lines, I need a better set of reasoning to do this and blindly shorting something that can move so powerfully doesnt seem best.

The problem for me is we are under obvious resistance, the 200 day moving average and I know its pulled back.  A few times its failed to pass that mark but the BTC price when it does move upwards in a bullish way it often does so in an extremely sharp quick movement.  I could lose a thousand in just a few minutes even if I was watching it all the time.    I dont like that idea, I would rather go negative on BTC price especially when there is no gloomy threads saying all we can do is go down.

You get my reasoning, when its all negative its not the time to join the crowd on that bet.   The profit will come from the surprise to the upside.    This guy could even be right negatively projecting price long term but it wont be in a super obvious way.  

ETH and BTC are the two main crypto currencies I would say in general but to buy PTR now would be done on an exchange.  Im not sure I know of any open exchanges now or even planned which are listing PTR, Im sure there must be something in the works but Ive not spotted that stated on the thread.
  It should be in the OP if there are any, since there is the sanction question there has been a lack of news generally.   I would expect to hear far more of PTR considering its size under normal circumstances


Quoted from the OP, Im not a fan when the OP fails to be updated with new info as anything can get lost in discussion back and forth and of course many commentating here have no interest in actively trading so would not know these details.    
Ive scanned their various media accounts but I see no recent information

Hiring a millionaire or billionaire to get involved doesnt sound cheap.   I think Herocoin is going to win support on its merits longer term and when its a good working system it should find more natural supporters pop up and esports does have a ton of varied personalities some of whom just want to be involved in something that is doing whats its supposed to.   Theres a ton of hype in every LAN, tournament and even online games and some of that will come to Herocoin when it allows betting on each games outcome.
  Also actively marketing something still in development would be pushing something without first fixing the wheels back on, its the wrong timing not the best use possibly.

Always pays to have a plan before sitting down I think, I agree there is a mental endurance that is paired with more successful attempts.  After some time people just become their own worst enemy, its not a gamblers mindset so much as an inability to walk away and take whatever winnings or losses you might have with you   Going back to reality and a boring non gambling scenario can be too much of a wrench for some possibly.  Stepping back and just recognising you are tired or not at your best, I would rate this as a good skill in gambling or perhaps any activity.

    Anyone running can recognise tiredness easily but perhaps its more tricky for a gambler with most of the action more virtual, its a special danger to online gambling because it never closes or has a set timetable I think.   Its more apt to a nonsensical plan or lack of any plan for the days gambling, bad risk ensues

^^  I have read that and its very true, most of us will be coming from an investment stand point but in trading its best to enter and exit in a far more rapid way then normal market involvement.
A good tip that keys into that is to actually alot more time not being in trade but possibly planning or watching for ideal entry then you also plan the exit pricing.     Hence when I look at a graph now I try to state possible ceiling but also underlying support below current pricing.

Another further idea is to scale in but also out of a position so that your gain or loss is not absolute and you do not get caught with too much 'size' at a weak price.   Its probably a far more important idea for those traders successful enough to be trading in larger amounts that might get noticed on an order book.

I agree but I also disagree that governments should operate this way.   The most profitable way for a country to benefit from exchange and production within its borders is by free markets and some limited taxation system.

If taxes are too high or control on a market too restrictive then we see the market try to create alternative routes or even that exchange could die off altogether as it has become too expensive.  A country which relies on printing money to finance its budget is near to its end as viable.    To rely on controlling every citizens worth in this way strongly discourages private enterprise and undermines the secure worth of that currency by allowing some in power the free ownership of workers labour.

Not every government thinks this way, I see most of them as just bad debtors with no other choice and so it represents failure.

It very much qualifies as money for the reasons you state.   Just because people regularly acccept it as value in exchange of goods and especially because its done the world over.   Even the most bearish of critics of Bitcoin I have heard declare Bitcoin is money.   Business is way less important then the confidence of the people, thats why they are always trying to advertise things to us and convince of the quality of some product where is Bitcoin is accepted off the back of its own qualities in use.

The bearish critics dont have any real belief in Bitcoin lasting as a high value exchange of worth.   They believe there is better alternatives but even the most negative view will accept its used as money and so it is money.  The confidence and regular exchange of a secure token happens and so BTC equates to money.

   Here in this picture is a demonstration of other systems existing over many years as forms of money in various parts of the world:

Fortune might be an overly ambitious description of most peoples worth unfortunately!   I know many young people are here because high growth is very much required when the initial capital is quite low and crypto remains a high risk, specialised knowledge area which does in a good way open it up to those most able to familiarise themselves with new terms in technology.


If anyone did really gain alot like maybe the OP has done ok then I also agree with the idea of diversifying away from purely ICO investment.  Its not good to rely on just one thing and of course overall for 2018 ETH has declined some, that doesnt mean long term it would only do that and I still think high growth is possible on each business case examined. 

  Thats the positive thing to consider, new ideas are appearing and taking an interest and investigating possible growth is still well worth doing.   However in a bear market or pullback like 2018 has seen, it becomes harder that is for sure

You are repeating here what was already declared possible, is actually happening now in Venezuela by their government and also I believe will definitely happen in future.

The past declaration was made by the head of the IMF.    This is not well know but the IMF already operates a currency standard known as the SDR.  When or if USD ever fails then SDR would be the replacement.   If you think of it roughly as a global EURO then thats not far off, its a way to balance various reserve currencies for the purpose of international trading.

The present implementation of government currency would be Petro which is offered by the Maduro regime in Venezuela.   This is a sanctioned resource centrally dictated by that nation not of independent or freely traded worth, I would not exactly call it a proper cryptocurrency and if you live in a western country it would be simpler personally to avoid it or least check the stance of your government regarding trade with this country.  I believe it might become a corporate exchange token perhaps.

In future I think the SDR and/or IMF crypto will appear at some point as I think USD has ongoing problems it does not appear ready to address.   As USD is the backing to all world trade to a large extent this is what underlines a strong possibility for alternatives being required including crypto currency tendered by various governments, democratic and otherwise.    Its very possible future events will resemble this.

Well said, think I agree with this on the basis that everyone wants to know what will happen next in the world but not everyone is open to the truth and possibly how it might not benefit them personally.  Just the power of knowing or having the correct anticipation and imagination possible growth in the world, this means alot especially in investment or even just trading.

We want knowledge but also humans can oppose truth because its alot to take in.   The truth is all of us here could have bought bitcoin five years ago and actually I was here five years ago but I failed to have enough optimism or foresight to save more of my Bitcoin.

I saved a tiny bit but if I had more belief and maybe done more homework I might have saved enough by now to buy a house or just be generally more involved with crypto and better off .  That would have been cool, can I correct my mistakes now and be more open to growth and have the right attitude to risk vs reward?

Seems very basic reasoning, a guess even.   I could guess we see a new ATH but only a five year basis so 2022 December.   I'm still being bullish but really some would sell if they read and believed this prediction were accurate, mostly people are quite commonly wanting to believe in the most satisifying outcome for them personally and usually in the nearterm.

The most positive thing for Bitcoin overall might well be that it takes the full five years to over come the last ATH.   The reason I say that is that steady growth is more likely to involve more people and accumulate volume at various price points.  
In trading terms at least we could momentarily reach 25k or higher but only on the lighest volume as it 'spikes' on a sudden surprise to the market in some way.   Supply could greatly lag demand for some reason, call it a flash spike if you like.  Its possible but I wouldn't rate this especially positive for the protocol or worlds use of BTC generally.

 I would rather see us take five years to be honest, I know its more boring but its also more likely to succeed and be something we can build on individually in various industries not just crypto solely, ie. more integrated.

Continued growth is most likely as there is a fair premise for Bitcoin business, its not just some random lottery or ponzi type scheme without any use at all.   All the most negative criticism I've seen and talk of dramatic failures and zero worth ignores the basic utility that bitcoin brings.

If nothing else consider that long before Bitcoin people were talking about just such a system and how it was needed on the internet.   I used the net alot before we had such ideas as search engines to find websites, that wasnt always around and HTTP format itself was only invented around the start of the 90's

Even around this early time in the starting part of consumer involvement, people wanted this system of exchange.  Now we finally have it, some cant do anything else but suggest its not going to last.    All Bitcoin has to do to get growth is to continue development in a positive way, it surely can do this.

Driving through a fresh patch of even muddy ground can be far easier then the time it takes to retrace your steps with great big tyre tracks now in the way.    We wont be returning to 20,000 quite as easily as that, its well trodden ground now.

More power is needed second time around, more traction and involvement from all parties to get through previous volume of trend which easily represents resistance to price accumulation.   This is just standard market progress unfortunately and it allows sellers to take part in the market and raise volume generally.

Thats healthy and certainly the exchanges appreicate the extra business I dont doubt.  Even to take a trip to 11,803 is going to take a bit more then what we've seen so far.  The main reasoning or most obvious is we must cross the 200 day average which might be the most widely watched indicator the world over.

roach you remind me of Bobby Fisher with your obsession.     Why would you only be concerned with just one section of the world that may oppose you, seems far too optimistic when it could just be everyone at least to some extent.   I dont give any great credit to any nation or section of the world population to be my sole enemy and only concern to problems ongoing.   You ever consider if the world looks purple and off-colour, you might want to remove the tinted glasses you are viewing everything with.
  Usually the greatest problems come collectively that we are all partly flawed and the worst mistakes are when every person overlooks that error and so its duplicated to an extent where a flaw can become a crevasse.    The information you mention is already considered many times over

If you wont take any criticism at least avoid repeating yourself, I got the message previously.


Of course you can do this.   All those things exist nearby to me, send them to me immediately is perfectly possible in many cities.    The payment transaction to justify the movement of the goods is more select technology.   I send gold grams all the time, its not decentralised but I'll trust that provider I guess as its in their interest.   To provide a global exchange system is far more ambitious.

Are you saying FIAT cash in paper or cotton notes is cheaper to process then crypto because I dont think thats the case.  Crypto should beat all systems of exchange for both speed and efficency without great trouble.   I hope Bitcoin continues to allow very cheap exchange even if the processing is not immediate presumably for the very smallest amounts it would not longer need the 6 block confirmation time and so be quite easy to sign off based on the initial show on the blockchain.

Only a country without communications or electricity is really too poor to take part, even then mobile phones could be used some.

Gragal you can usually take part across all different social media platforms.   This is just the best forum for general discussion and long term criticism and development of a project I think.   Lots of ICO have a basis in Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and theres a few others also.   However I think this forum is the most hospitable and some platforms in theory have banned the idea of fund raising or even discussion because of legal fears I think.

I would keep on looking and reading and you should find you can take part.

This is seriously based on the project itself.    I dont know if its the majority of startups where the value shown might be highest at the ICO point and it never forfills its potential.  Thats a cynical point of view but also possible.

It also depends where you will take the value you first received and if you know of a better place to hold that capital in order that it might appreciate to a greater extent.   So this is the classic Tide change between BTC the biggest longest blockchain and all the diverse alternatives out there.   

I think many recognise the highest growth comes from the smallest projects and most unknown names.  This is where you come in, the little guy who can understand the smallest dynamic might build into great value.  Your judgement could be very important and rewarding.  I would even say as far as its best to always hold on and hope its a big gainer.   It is possible your one big gain on a project no one knew could outweigh all the little losses from projects not as big or even went to zero.

Crypto is a massive growth area, I would not recommend pessimism as the best attitude for long term gains by proof of past and I think also there is more to gain in future. 

Standard business cycle is six years, the flip side to being part of an ICO or bounty experience as per the thread title is that you may need to see out this long term perspective to actually receive the full value to your bounty payment.

Its unfortunate maybe as many people dont have the finances to wait out six years but also you could look back at six years ago in Bitcoin; how it was little and rarely counted as anything much back then.   Pick your ICO involvement carefully as you may get stuck for this long possibly.
   I would hope there are alternatives, exchanges or some means to receive an earlier benefit but I'd also say its normal for even six months not to get anything back exactly.  

Russia seems to be keep alternating between bans with the communist hive mind that anything they dont have under their boot is an enemy and the other extreme of promoting crypto envolvement as business growth.  Perhaps they only wish to support alternatives to the dollar and they view Telegram as politically far too freedom orientated and diverse from the Russian national government interests.

Its sad to see as Russia is a country which needs to transition more then any of the Eastern European former USSR bloc countries away from the old fixed military based economy over to a technology developed and capable dynamic economy.   Banning things outright that have no relation to illegal activity is pointless backwards thinking and Im wary of any country prone to this unilateral thinking

Its still possible, success doesn't exclude the idea of failure.   Some people take the view its only with some failure do you see the true character and test of a standard, I've read a few view crypto as a whole like this.    We only exist in the gaps between recessions, coming after the great 2008 shake out; so now crypto is untested vs the worst extremes in finance hence the bubble criticism.


I dont think any individual has 77% of ETH but its good to ask the questions at least.   I would hope anyone reliant on a system for value and even their whole business would ask these questions every day or every week at least.   Some of these types of accusations are FUD, people trying to cause some selling on an exchange perhaps.   Works alot better with the smaller alt coins then it might with ETH.

I like that blockchains are mostly open and this data should be apparent not assumed or assured by some central body.