Kia is that short or code for Lambo ?


J/K 

Proof of stake is literally the saying ‘he who has the gold makes the rules’ implemented in crypto coin form. It’s basically the most centralizing force in crypto that in my opinion goes against the principles that crypto was founded on. It ensures those with the most gold always make the rules though, so if you think that’s a good thing, you might be a PoSer.

China crushing miners?

https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain/status/1415946983219466241

Beanie Baby Bitcoin going full tulips in the coming 18 months. Anybody still hodling or did you take Billy’s advice & dump those bags? The only use for your digital tokens is pedophile material & drugs online. Don’t get left holding your bags. Bitcoin going to $0.

weeeeeee

I'd like to run your numbers through my spreadsheet.

What is the 28 cents?

Your mining pool takes 50%??

What is your electricity rate?

I just pulled the trigger on an S19. I was planning to plug it in instead of my dryer on the 220 outlet. I notice it has two power inputs. How are people powering these in the US?

Pepper your angus? Is that like "smack the pony"?

Excuse my provocative title 

I am finding that except for a narrow range of BTC price rise, it is better to buy BTC than to mine it.

I have been looking at buying Antminer S19j Pro 100 TH (3250W) from compassmining using their hosting ($.0624/kWH) and F2 pool (1.2%)

It costs 8000 (after 3% credit card fee).

Assuming a starting BTC price of $30,000, with starting difficulty at 1.4363, with both increasing at 4.4% per month:

After 3 years:

 - ROI of mining - 181%
 - ROI of purchasing BTC - 351%

Change the BTC price rising to 6.5% per month, which corresponds to BTC doubling every year:

 - ROI of mining - 337%
 - ROI of purchasing BTC - 806%

If BTC rises only 1% per month, then the ROI of each about the same.

 - ROI of mining - 40%
 - ROI of purchasing BTC - 42%

At less than 1% rise per month, mining does better than purchasing.

So, you can't mine BTC profitably at current miner prices and hosting fees at compassmining.

Prove me wrong!
 

I am posting as an aside I received a late payment for the second run I did.

I am attempting to fix the error.

I owe 0.01000002 to

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/35DdGaFXVKT8GX4NNoyqwn1KjvmLBLUVSB

this address paid me in time for first run see here:

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/d65a2148236de4c70cffb3f9965b8123476abab57fe520b1f90f804461012013


and paid me late for second run

see here July 7

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/20da66a62bca83261fc017bf54c62f7654f2a77663ecb8dd0f220b0cc165aeb6

So I owe 0.01000002 to that address.
I won't mention the member but will will get this fixed.
I am waiting for member to tell me I can pay 0.0100 0002 to the :


https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/35DdGaFXVKT8GX4NNoyqwn1KjvmLBLUVSB


Since he was able to use it on June 24 and July 7 I assume he controls it.

I have been using both mynode & raspiblitz for a while. Been discussing it on and off in a few of the LN threads.

Both are sold products. But regardless of what people say I really feel both are pushing the limits of what you can do with an RPi.
I setup the mynode as a VM with 4GB of RAM using a 7200RPM drive that is being used for other things on the PC and it just feels better then the 8GB RPi with an SSD.
Can't explain it past just how the web browser or SSH feels when using it.

But, enjoy, you will learn a lot. And having your own lightning node is good to. And you can also use it as your own personal electrum server :-)

-Dave

I'm an optimist too, and since I'm going long term, I don't care much about this sideways. What I do wonder is what would happen if for whatever reason the price goes below $20K. It would be breaking a historical trend, and there some predictive models would have to be rethought.

In any case, I don't think it will happen. I also think we've already hit the bottom and when the price goes up and breaks $40K again, we're going to $100K easy.

Anything can happen in the future, I sincerely doubt that we will reach a consensus to touch dormant addresses, but even if that happened, the effect of burning or reusing 1M coins won't change the fact of "diminishing returns".

I am not making this up, it's in the chart:

Bitcoin went up from low to high as follows:

55617% (2010-2013)
12700%  (2014-2017)
1700%   (2018-2021)

For "diminishing returns" theory to be invalidated bitcoin will need to up with at least one of those cycles, meaning, it has to go to $16,000,000 this cycle to stay in line with the 2010-2013 cycle or at least goes to 400k to keep up with 2014-2017 cycle, the first one is out of the question, I hope that nobody expects bitcoin to go to 16M by the end of this cycle, you might debate the 400k is doable but I would bet the house against it, and then even it magically happened, for the next cycle it needs to be above 10M, I honestly don't think that its remotely possible by any means.

So as it stands right now based on the facts that we have before us, the price growth will slow down, the difficulty will also slow down but most likely go up, mining profitability, in the long run, is going to go down, I don't present to know the future, but this has been the case for 10 years and I see no reason as to why it has to change.



-----------------------


Ok, if the period I picked didn't work for you, how about 10 years' worth of data?  

10 years ago difficulty was 1.5M and the price was $14, 10 years later price is $64,000 and difficulty is 23T, to put that in number digits it's  23,000,000,000,000 now vs 1,500,000 then.

Price went up by 457,042% while difficulty went up by 1,533,333,233% , and thus difficulty outperformed price by 335,390%, you can make of that what you want.


No one, but I should ask you the same question, what will take bitcoin price 50x in the next 10 years?

The price peak was 64k and difficulty was 23T, right? so OP is talking about the difficulty of 46T and price of about 100k, so I think that is possible? very possible, and then in 2023, difficulty sits at 84T and price at 150k? also possible, do I think this can go on forever? of course not and I have said that I agree with your point, but because I know that bitcoin won't be putting 50% up every year, this difficulty doesn't have to put in 100% for OP's projection to be accurate.

If you look at the past data in the right way, I believe these numbers have actually been the case or very close, you can't look at 3k vs 60k and say oh well price went 2000%, the 60k was so brief, even the 19k and the 1.5k before it, you need to work with something like the average yearly price by taking the daily close of all candles within that year and divide it by the number of days in the year.

For example, the average yearly price for the 2017 peak was 2.8k and not 19k, the average of the previous year was 0.5k (( I used 365 daily moving average on trading view to get that), so realistically speaking, the gains of 2017 was merely 460%, you need to compare that against the average difficulty (can't find an easy way to get but it's doable if someone is willing to).

Of course, this can't go on forever, both price and difficulty growth will have to slow down, I can't tell for sure if it's going to be 50% vs 100% or any other ratio, but in the long run, the difficulty will outperform "profitability" assuming price here is somehow irrelevant when another halving hit the place because once the rewards are halved for the next 4 years, the difficulty doesn't need to go up by 100% to keep OP's numbers in check.