And a huge technical barrier, which should become support after passage.

Um, I thought you were waiting for it to go down?  I was even on the fence, to be honest.  The resistance at $5 was strong. 

Anyone awake this early is very lucky to have a last opportunity to get in before $5.

We are the market makers.  And we are the dreamers of the dream.

Yea, I suppose.  A patient trader ought to be equally patient to buy as to sell.  But a conservative trader will be quicker on the sell.  That'll protect him from a bear market, but in a bull market he'll tend to lose potential gains.  During the infamous bubble of April-June, my risk profile was upside-down (lost gains during the bull, then was unprotected for the bear), which only helped to inflate the bubble.

Being conservative is smart, but that's easy to forget when you're chasing a rally.  If you have an appetite for risk, better to let it taper off as your gains increase, rather than build up as they pass on by.


I guess I'll agree here.  Whether you buy into a rising market or sell into a falling one, you're equally guilty of pushing the market further from equilibrium. 


Retracing the early October drop from $5?

Sideways consolidation for now, but the moment of truth is near.


We could sail right through the red resistance, or a little drop could bounce us off the black trendline to breakout upwards.

If this first attempt to break through $5 fails, we'll correct towards $3 and bounce back up for a second attempt later.

I'm glad to hear that some people cashing out and holding USD right now.  We'll have these conservative, impatient traders to thank for pushing this thing past $5 as they're chasing the rally (if we rally, that is).

A correction is coming, but it will be from closer to $10, back down towards the new support (which will be the old resistance that we are facing now: $5).

The pattern since the 20th, broke out of a symmetric triangle (itself a continuation pattern), and has formed an ascending triangle (an even stronger continuation pattern).  So the indicator is that the trend will continue, and by now its pretty obvious what the trend is.

Yup.  Real brokerages have capital which is loaned to customers, so they can buy on margin.  If that starts running out because the customers are net long, they'll raise more by increasing the margin requirements.  

That's what COMEX did at least twice over the past year (2011), probably because traders' net positions on silver and gold were too long for them.

Each time COMEX raised margins it triggered corrections in gold and silver (some quite severe), but that's because COMEX was the market.  I wouldn't expect this Bitcoinica issue to trigger a correction in bitcoin, because bitcoinica isn't the market (MtGox is).


More people opened short positions because Zhou alerted that so many folks were long, and they wanted to be contrarians.  

Also, some folks who were long on bitcoinica probably closed their positions because of the hiccup.  Even if they withdrew their funds, less people long at 1:5 margin, is more margin available.

If you're talking about that initial pop above $4, the buy was first and it was about 10k BTC.  The sell followed immediately afterwards and it was about 9k BTC.  But then the bids filled up really quick.

Here comes Santa Claus, here comes Santa Claus
Right down Santa Claus lane..

Ah, yes it seems you are correct.  Hmm.. *ponders bot algorithm*

No, that was just a bot and it was very low volume.  

The buy took out a $30k wall at $4.0 and up to $4.10, it was over $50k in total.  And it was Santa Claus.

I think Santa just bought that $30k wall at $4.00.  

*ahem

Managing the risk of your portfolio like that is smart, and requires good discipline.  It's about your appetite for risk.

Of course, low risk equals low rewards.  But high risk can equal high losses.  That's why I stay off bitcoinica, so I never get zhoutonged if I'm wrong.

It could be considered fiat in the sense that code is law.

Well, if you had a crystal ball that told you to do that (or you were a very good trader), then you would have achieved gains much, much higher.

There's nothing easier than armchair trading.  It's pretty obvious in retrospect.

OK, now look at the weekly RSI.

(Not that the RSI and bollinger bands have been the most reliable predictors of bitcoin price changes in the past).

And as for the bounce from $4.5, I prefer to see it as very weak selling activity since then.  Similar to just before, when it was hanging around $3.20 for a while, before the pop to $4.5.

The correction already happened, from $4.5 to $3.5.

The major players are too smart to take a dump on the rally this early, me thinks.  They'll bide their time, and wait till $10, at the least.  If we're going there, it will be sooner rather than later.

Well, IF you can double your holdings, it will be double the thousands when BTC is worth a mere $10.

But, for me the downside to daytrading isn't having to watch MtGoxLive all day.  Its the upside risk of selling.

Selling high and buying low, as a strategy to double to your holdings, works well in a downtrend.  But in an uptrend, you're more likely to be forced to buy in higher.  You'll end up halving your holdings instead of doubling them.  And the higher it goes, so increases the value of what you lost.

During a strong pop, you won't be able to buy in where you sold.  And if you trade every time you get an itch, you'll lose the spread (which is worse than the fees).  If you're confident, then just hang on tight during an uptrend.

And remember, think logarithmically.  It was $2 to $4 with a stop at $3, because that was counter-trend.  But, if/when it breaks $5, it will go to $10 ($9/$9.5 more specifically) in the blink of an eye.  You'll be very lucky if you get the chance to buy at $4.50 or $6.

Wow, awesome job.  To be honest, I was underwhelmed with BitInstant before, finding the services offered to be mostly redundant conversions within the e-currency ecosystem.

Cash deposit is a level up, and its especially good to see after MtGox suspended their cash deposits (which had the very inconvenient ID/paperwork requirements anyway).

I hope you can avoid any legal snags going forward to keep the new service as convenient as possible.

lol.  On Nov 24 I wished for $5 btc for xmas. 

I used to doubt any correlation between bitcoin and the mainstream markets.  But with bitcoin possibly going quasi-mainstream, I can see it looking quite attractive to adventurous retail investors, next to the non-performing stocks and gold/silver.