Bitcoin will be shut down from within if any scenario was viable in that way.    The way that some miners have forked away to another blockchain type is how the original protocol would most likely end.    I dont see it ending from external means otherwise, just one government is not a reason as Bitcoin is a global transfer system and remains anyway.

A bit like how Dollars were banned in the old USSR system, they were used anyway at least on the edges of that empire because regardless this was a good system or better system then the communist operated rouble at that time.    The reason to doubt Bitcoin would be for internal reasons, I did see the fees being so high as a possible end but it has been resolved and luckily it was seen correctly as a problem for long term viability.

Could I please change my segwit address on the spreadsheet details to:
 3HnKiDGKh27vaXbxbACdzoNYySxkiHJRPo 



Best flag in the world



I believe there is alot more depending on the browser or maybe its the forum software perhaps not sure.  These below may not all display sadly 😞

☺ 😊 😀 😁 😂 😃 😄 😐 😯 😉 😈 😇 😆 😅 😑 😕 😠 😬 😡 😢 😴 😨 😧 😦 😥 😤 😣 😮 😩 😰 😟 😱 😲 😳 😵 😜 😛 😍 😒 😞 😷 😶 😝 😋 😗 😙 😘 😚 😎 😓 😏 😪 😔 😖 😌 😭 😫 🙋 🙌 🙍 🙅 🙆 🙇 😻 😹 😸 😼 😺 🙏 🙎 😽 😿 😾 🙀 🙈 🙉 🙊 👴 👩 👨 👧 👦 👶 💩 👵 💏 💑 👪 👫 👬 👭 👯 💂 💁 👷 👮 👥 👤 👰 👸 🎅 👼 👱 👲 👳 👺 👹 👻 💅 💇 💆 💃 👽 👾 👿 💀 💪 👀 👂 💙 ❤ 💋 👅 👄 👣 👃 💚 💛 💜 💓 💕 💖 👎 👍 💟 💟 💝 💘 💗 👌 ✊ ✌ ✋ 👊 ☝ 👆 👐 👏 👋 👉 👈 👌

Price should not matter as much as the underlying product being usable on a regular basis.   Since December we've had both a price drop but also the fees have dropped far more to become of no impediment to business once again.  The fees part of this is far more important in answering your question. 

Speculators may dislike the drop but also people can speculate on a drop in price also, I dont see the price is a reason to no longer have an interest in crypto.

I understand the basic idea is to formalise registration, avoid bots.  To require money is a step away from free speech that this forum clearly supports.
I'd say no for the same reason I think Bitcoin fees should always be as low as possible for at least the slowest transactions.  Its a global product and for true growth and to enable the whole story behind Bitcoin you have to include everyone in the story even the poorest countries.  Even where the person on this forum might not even own a computer, might just be using a library for 10 minutes.   Someone who is a teenager even who is very young without proper banking access is very common in developing countries.
  Look at the guy who setup ETH at a very young age, I would not want to see anyone excluded or discouraged from joining because we in the West presume its easy; its a negative really.

The merit system requires the forum member to spend a minute editing a post and thinking of reasonable points to make, everyone on the planet can do this.  Since they are including local boards, anyone can pass this bar and thats how Bitcoin should always be.   I do think its a requirement for success longterm to be inclusive and Im sad when BTC takes any bias towards serving the largest transactions excluding the smallest.

There needs to be a set process to KYC so that Identity documents cannot be sold on as a commodity by these businesses demanding KYC information from their customers.   Like we saw with Facebook recently this is always possible that personal information can be used for commercial reasons to target certain users.

Hopefully it should be the case criminals can obtain this information but also there should be a protocol to KYC agreed on by all crypto participants where documents are destroyed after processing and confirmation of that person.  That seems best rather leaving it a liability for the consumer to deal with and also for the business who must now avoid being hacked of this info.

A business should not be able to profit from KYC demands.  I understand if a company must comply with some regulation but its also possible they seize funds and never enable the customer to regain access which should never be possible.

I'll be starting a petetion to gather signatures from the crypto community on this issue, so a due process is agreed across the industry.

A trend to go straight up or straight down does not exist long in any real adjusted market.   Certainly Bitcoin does have a use and utility to it that is recognised worldwide so zero is unlikely.
If you wanted a simple answer to this its no, trends vary and there is always many threads woven into an overall picture you are seeing. 
A market never moves in a straight line because it would be handing out free money to whoever wants to short or go long.   Its never that easy, also we have millions involved in bitcoin with their own priority to buy or sell at that moment and not all are speculators.

I always think its safest when we have the many over the few.   The reason being a few people may agree at the same time and crash the price.   A great many people will not agree often and the price remains a mix and useful in matching some buyers to some sellers.  It takes on a source of liquidity and the coin is useful in matching those varying interests.  Like any trade, someone has too much of a product and wants to swap to another product they have none of.
Bitcoin matches this idea and it wont go to zero ever so far as I can tell.  Just worry about the core protocol, if thats good the price is secondary to its prime use.  Fees are way down, Bitcoin is more useful now!

No China is more important because China has an economy where business is heavily intergrated into government and does not exist properly without the control of central communist leaders.  Obviously there is a thriving private Chinese business 'underground' but its very bearish if these companies are to be seized at any point.

I would say the surprise is to the upside for China in general as they have already ruled against it quite heavily.  I thought the great Chinese firewall was more of an obstacle then that, to small consumer movement maybe not but any attempt at a bigger business is affected by Chinese policy.   Since China is such a large country with over a billion, its going to affect us all to some extent



Its a mistake but its also not something a government should be ruling upon anyway.    Do they have ruling on magic the gathering trading cards also, these are exchanged for money.   Is this also a problem that must be made illegal.
The whole thing is nonsense if considering people should be free to use their private capital as they wish in a legal peaceful way.
The historic thing to mention with India is they have often not been an especially free society, elements in the country are still in favour of communism.   I'm happy to hear if they do respect indivuals and free capital but they are not yet close to the western system so far as I know.

I buy with zero confirmation on bitcoin all the time.  Its a gold price fix for deposit, I guess if it were fraud or incorrectly displayed they could just reverse it anyway.   My purchase is not for instant delivery so its not really a problem, surely this is the case in lots of transactions.    The problem of buying a cup of coffee even doesnt seem that great as they can just ban you from your local and the shop has only lost a disposable cup really.

With say buying shopping, my local supermarket has a system to checkout your items as you take them off the shelf and put them into the trolley.   By the time you come near to the exit of the shop, the items would have already gone past more then 1 confirmation I guess so that system could work with bitcoin also (its been done via some FIAT mobile phone app currently).


Alot of commoditys expire after some time, even copper can degrade.   I dont really agree with the idea of ransom, its utility people are paying for.   In any case most commoditys are obtainable via alternative means, cornering the market seems quite unlikely in most situations.   Platinum I read is unlikely to ever become a monetised commodity because the reserves are too centred to Russia apparently.    I'm bullish on gold but theres a ton of the stuff out there, banks are buying this up actively but it still wont ever actually be rare howver demand could outstrip supply over a decade.      Thats comparable to growth in bitcoin, supply is lower then likely population growth of users.
  A feasible scenario leading to likely price rises, with gold the higher prices enable greater production ditto oil and many other commodity types but bitcoin supply growth never occurs hence the price dynamic we've all become accustomed to.

Maybe he has edited it since but seems readable enough and ok points made about the background to a price on various factors.    Not that I feel massively compelled to give merit there but if I find the poster is brand new but has made a reasonable post, put effort into it and is below 10 merit as in this case then Im far more likely to award merit.   I think thats the point of the system partly, 'what we're supposed to do'.
  Most of the merit I give without thinking is often to other Legend members just because they are way more likely to post something in my own line of thinking but actually those guys dont need it so I feel obliged slightly to give some to the new members who actually make an effort.

Also good job by OP

I can hand a free tip to anyone wanting merit and thats to use chrome browser for this forum and select English as the primary language and allow it use a dictionary on all your posts.   Every time you post, click preview and it will highlight all the words that got mistakenly misspelt.  

I dont think a grammar check is as easy to do but just correcting the basic mistakes is a good start.    I cant really merit anything that isnt laid out properly or edited out mistakes.   I mean if your post is pure gold then sure it can be over looked some and my writing is definitely not perfect but usually poorly written equates to worthless content unfortunately, its quite simple.   People wont read it nevermind give merit.

Its good news that local boards will have merit sources, so long as its not exploited or has some oversight.

I dont know if someone better placed wants to correct this guy but his idea of Proof of stake seems to be incorrect.  He says Ether is proof of stake ?  He does respond on twitter occasionally I think
https://youtu.be/I4xpZm7JlqU?t=1160

He is giving lectures in many places and is an economist specialised in macro economics.  Formally council for LTCM (foreshadow to Lehmans), he has involvement with the FED but backs gold to take over from Dollar reserve.  He says crypto is money but believes it will fail anyway, would good if he changed his mind on this particular point anyway.  He says byzantine consensus is better then POW or POS

If the point is true it still stands, I dont know if they are trying to misdirect and imply BCH is the last bastion but the idea is a general one anyway.    Ive heard before the idea consensus forms the basis of money and value exchange.  This is one point I heard made by an economist who says Bitcoin or any other crypto will (nearly) completely fail.  He still makes the point that BTC is money because of that idea, a collective valuation and fungibility also I guess

https://youtu.be/I4xpZm7JlqU?t=137

There is no maths behind his prediction.  At best it could be called exponential growth, it would make more sense if he tried to predict the total crypto market capitalisation.  If he really thinks crypto will take over from conventional markets entirely I guess the hype would be justified some.

I dont think you can pump bitcoin price at this point, he can hype it up but like you mention most of what he does is for self promotion.   He is really promoting various alt coin and token launches for payment of publicity by those enterprises.    Bitcoin rising shouldnt really be linked how viable each company on another blockchain is but somehow people view them as directly related

Karl Marx relied on his rich friend for his upkeep, his friend inherited that wealth.   Had Marx worked for a living he might have come to other conclusions based on reality
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Marx#New_York_Tribune_and_Journalism



I think its just round number-itis mostly.    Overall I rate it very bullish above 8500 and probably until 10,000 for the same reason when it might need to reconfirm previous action at that point.   9074 as a ceiling I did have drawn in, I think its the late march peak but not especially a long term solid point

9231 was the late feb low, bullish above that level would be a good measure

Dont deal with absolutes and you will have less disappointment in expectations or observations.  An immediate change in price is usually quite artificial where as the effect of less sellers occurring in concordance will be an ongoing bullish change in sentiment.    These kind of price changes are an effect underlying the normal market trade, it accumulates into a price change but its not a force that appears and waves a flag to make itself clear.

Life would simple if we could always observe exactly why, but its not a mystery either from my point of view.  I see the market as resembling chaos theory, its not random its natural but also very hard to track and predict.   Which is good because that leads to long term investment being needed to capture gains otherwise lost unexpectedly in days you didnt expect a higher price.   Market never really does what we want.

The biggest bar or move recently was linked to BTC shorts being cancelled out.  Some people called that out as impossible or fake but it kinda matches on both sides.  Where as this tax event is just a slow drip from a tap being turned off and its repeated annually anyhow, it maybe relates to the bigger changes in the last 12 months also.

I totally agree on the decentralisation point because that is vital to security and stability, independence from only one system of worth is important to value as trade.     However I do not think Japan will dominate in the way you anticipate, if we look at normal business its become part of the default model that Japan operates abroad utilising many different economies not just its own.

Demographically Japan has a falling working population, this is also true of China.   They both require involvement in the wider world in order to do effective business and production even, I doubt Japan makes Bitcoin more insular while growth in developing countries is so great.

Bitcoin as a product is more resilient then that, its just true that right now Japan is one of the richest countries on earth but I dont see that means bitcoin always must follow that precedent.

Thats super long term, very bullish.   Hard to call it that easily for such a long period, I would expect us to require hard confirmation first and probably a few times before a large rise.  Theres alot of doubters and some of them have bitcoin to sell.
I altered the previous wedge chart to underline the price by volume indicator on the right which is part of the dynamic short term, which is the volume mass centred around 8500 to 8100.   This area for this and other reasons is forming some resistance post descending wedge breakout

Those who see furthest are standing on the shoulders of giants like this man.     Here is an article written in the LA Times after Hal Finney passed away a few years back.    Its a great legacy he left, in his actions he is an immortal soul now

http://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-hal-finney-20140831-story.html

They werent very enthusiastic if they gave up just because the price fell.   Especially when factors like the end of a tax year is apparent, thats a real lousy time to sell.  I think the people who dumped either had no choice or really werent that interested in crypto overall only in the price token speculation.    I mean thats fine because people can buy for whatever reason they like but also leverage and other flaky reasons is why they dump out so fast, real weak hands.   It matters because a market will always try to take easy money in this way.   People talk of whales but its just natural action in any market not attributable to one type of participant as the cause

On the flip side its a positive also because a true market acts exactly like this, double checking solid or loose areas of the market.   Going straight up is a sure sign of fake action really, people like it but also a good market will not move just one direction like that.   now people want to say the market can only go down, but thats wrong for the same reason really.  Shorters got forced out recently, sadly this matches the smallest investors stepping back perhaps.  Shorts will of course try to step back in etc.

Last I heard the snapshot would be announced beforehand so you should just carry on as you like.   The wait could be such a long time or forever.    Really I think Rat4 is just a very independent thinker, which has its strengths and weaknesses.  IMO its better to go with a team of development open to ideas and discussion as that is more likely to succeed long term.   I dont know crypto will always have plain sailing, it might see alot of gains but also rough seas along the way.   A team of people is going to more easily succeed.

  In political terms, economic, changes to the wider worlds way of backing its FIAT, trade balance, debt situations & possible wars who knows but the world is going to change alot.    Capital controls such as China have existed in other countries during turmoil,  UK  had this extreme regulation at one point.  In the past USA set prices for food centrally for example it was illegal to sell on a free market, this was in the 70's ; my point being the world can become very uneven and uncertain and leaning on only one person for a protocol is not especially stable in extremes imo.
  Even if crypto didnt exist I expected to see great changes occur anyway, this story goes back decades for me and technology hopefully just helps progression away from bits of paper tied to debt.

The bigger struggle will always be the wider worlds challenges, thats the long term prospects to address