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$8500 just crossed the tape, 40c - 44c
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Should read "Stop the fed, use bitcoins instead."
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thank you for the help. I am happy to work on it.
If anyone who knows what they are doing creates a similar page, I won't feel slighted in the least.
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Are the bets on the price of bitcoins supposed to be closed? And if so what are the chances of opening some more up?
Thank you for the interest. The January 31st settlement wagers are closed. There will be February 28th 2011 wagers opening soon. good luck |
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I am looking to corner the bitcoin wagering market.
I will bid 123 BTC.
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I bumped this to say that there has been some activity on the MtGox ending price of January 2011. Currently about 5,000+ coins if anyone has an opinion. Zero fees for this new contract, so feel free to bet both sides.
The price will be settled with an average price weighting at MtGox for all trades at MtGox on January 31st 2011 Eastern Time. Note this is a weighted price average. I will post all MtGox trades for Jan 31st on bitcoinsportsbook.com.
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Could you please post the NCAA bowl games if possible. I was kind of disappointed that when I started using BitcoinSportsBook they stopped taking bets on NCAA football games.
Certainly! Good luck. |
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There are anonymous safety deposit boxes: http://www.24-7privatevaults.com , why not an anonymous parcel box? Pay cash for a box, no ID required. Have package shipped to: John Smith Anonymous Parcel Box #5000 my city, ST 12345 Wouldn't need all the secret codes. |
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I had a similar idea - bitcoin graffiti - create a large blank canvas If you want to paint on a canvas, you can use BitPixel: http://bitpixel.bitcoin.nl/You can't paint over other people's pixels, but hardly any pixels have been taken so it's mostly a blank canvas. Maybe thats where I got the idea from  coins have increased in value, the site is a bit expensive. |
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I'm a little confused on a couple parts of the site. Your first post says that everything'll be explained by the site, but I don't see a help page there. Maybe I'm just missing it. And maybe part of it is I'm just unfamiliar with traditional sports betting as well.
When do bets close? For instance, I just placed a bet on the MtGox price by the end of the year. Should I have waited closer to the end of the year before doing that? Is the potential payoff the same whether I bet now or at 11:58 pm on 12/31? I suddenly feel like I made a terrible mistake. Can I un-place my bet and wait until the time gets closer?
Is the current "line" the number my bet gets multiplied by if the thing I bet on "wins"? And this is set purely by "the market" of what bets have been placed thus far, and not by some external force guessing? That is, if the fee is 0.0%, then all the money bet gets split proportionally amongst the "winners" according to how much they each bet?
The "MtGox USD Price" section heading says "(see rules)". Where are the rules?
Thanks.
Thank you for visiting the site. I need to create the help page - this is my fault. Wagering closes at the DATE/TIME indicated on the bet. All wagers are pari-mutual, meaning you wager with other participants on the site. If you are familiar with horse race betting, it is the same. The timing of your bet in this case is similar to placing a bet at a horse racing track with 30 minutes until close - there are few wagers at the moment. Once the time becomes closer, more wagers are attracted. Everyone will get the same line upon close. I'm not sure of your exact wager, but if you bet on mtgox over 0.30 for 10 coins, you can freely bet up to 10 coins on the under 0.30 right now in margin (most you can lose is only 10 coins total). Once the wager closes on 12/31, you'll only need to maintain a worst-case scenario and can freely withdraw the balance of the coins. We have a market maker who will price out each contract and put 1000+ coins or so on each side when the wager is close to going off. You understand how the line works. If there are 100 coins on wager A and 200 coins on wager B, then those 300 coins will be split proportionately among the winning bets. Rules for MtGox USD Price for Jan 2011 close eastern time: A settlement will be given for price action for trades that take place on january 31st, 2011. All trades that day (eastern time) will be price weighted. So, 1000 coins trade at 0.25 and 100 coins trade at 0.26, the settlement would be (1000*.25 + 100*.26)/1100 = 0.250909. |
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I had a similar idea - bitcoin graffiti - create a large blank canvas, say 20,000 x 20,000 pixels (400 million total pixels) and charge 0.0001 btc to edit each pixel (1btc gives you 10,000 edits). This would be 40,000 btc to change the entire picture at once.
cool page
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How is that possible? The site has to confirm the payments were received first before it's possible to download the file. Your other suggestions were all good, and I've updated the site now. A file for 2 BTC costs 2 BTC. The uploader receives 1.96 BTC. It said that it was taking a share before but I had that line commented out.  I'm lurking #pokerface when not on #bitcoin-dev so let me know of anything else if I don't respond here. This was just a weekend project. We're working on something else: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/rake-free-open-poker-room-run-poker-community-938389/Come to our meeting tomorrow 2200 GMT on #pokerface ... good to share ideas. cya I'm a long time reader of 2+2. I see a lot of people 'seeing the light' about bitcoins in that thread. Best of luck to you. |
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I got a bunch of green with the validator. Does it work now?
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Your matrix display is so useful. Using the 0.0025 sub-cent axis display is my favorite way to see bid/ask spread: http://www.taters.net/cgi-bin/btc/matrix.pl?axisinc=0.0025There's a page-display widget that I would like to use that will periodically refresh the matrix in a window off to the side. However, that tool doesn't like how your script doesn't return valid html -- e.g., no <html> tag, etc. Were those tags omitted explicitly? If not, would you consider adding them in? Thank you. I added some <html> and a <title>. Let me know if it needs anything else. Rolling over the quantity now gives the individual orders. Works best in non-firefox browsers  |
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+1 ribuck.
why not list a 1-month, 2-month, 3-month and 1-year contract? also, why are we dealing with years and not block numbers? call me insanely optimistic, but maybe we will be replacing the Gregorian Calendar with the Bitcoin Block Calendar sometime in the future. i digress...
That is a great idea - use block numbers instead of dates. I should switch to that. Right now I'm a majority of the market, and I might not be the most talented in predicting future difficulty levels (I will lose btc). If the contracts become self-sustaining, I'll open up more markets. |
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... betting on the difficulty factor 3 months in advance.
Three months is a long time in Bitcoin land! Three months ago, TTBit speculated that the difficulty level would be 1000 by year end. FreeMoney replied "2000 at least imo, but my guess is 8500" and here we are at over 12000 already with some difficulty adjustments still to come before year end! Those wagering on this one might be interested in the previous wager. I wonder if anyone other than TTBit took a position on difficulty factor > 50,000? I am open to suggestions. My thinking is that 1 month difficulty is almost predictable, as it is only 2 changes away. Oh for the days of triple digit difficulty and CPU generation... |
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I have received some interest in re-opening the difficulty factor wagering at bitcoinsportsbook.com (BSB) therefore:
BSB will offer pari-mutual betting on the difficulty factor 3 months in advance. Wagering closes at the end of each month. Example: Wagering is now open for March 2011 difficulty, and bets will be frozen 12/31/10 11:59pm ET. April 2011 difficulty settlement will have betting closed 1/31/11 11:59pm ET, etc. There are NO FEES with this wager at this time.
I have created an opening line for the following difficulty levels to expire 3/31/11:
25,000 98.7%
50,000 88.9%
75,000 72.1%
100,000 56.1%
125,000 42.0%
150,000 32.4%
200,000 18.6%
250,000 11.5%
I'm basing this off of my calc of a 50/50 of difficulty at 109,820.
Quick tip for pari-mutual wagering: If you don't agree with the current market, the best solution is to bet the percentage you believe it to be.
Example #1: You think the 50/50 mark is 50,000. Your best solution is to wager 20 on 'OVER' and 20 on 'UNDER' on the 50,000 wager. You are only required to put up 20 coins on this wager. Once a line is set on 12/31 you are refunded coins above the worst case scenario.
Example #2: You believe the difficulty will be over 200,000 40% of the time. Your best wager is to put 20 on 'OVER' and 30 on 'UNDER'. You need 30 coins in margin to do this. Again, you also are returned coins above the worst case scenario.
Once the betting is closed a worst case scenario is calculated and you are then free to wager/withdraw unused coins. In Example #2, if the odds went off at 2:1, you would be able to withdraw another 15 coins. (either win 40/lose 30 net +10 OR win 15/lose 30 net -15).
Good Luck!
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I am working on a generation calculator which takes the network growth into consideration: www.taters.net/btcgc It is static right now, I will collect data and make it dynamic. cost of a 5970 at $500 USD generating 0.625 ghash/sec coins at 0.19 current network size of 95 ghash/sec network growth 15.23% per 1000 blocks it would take over 50,000 blocks to pay for the 5970. |
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I don't like the tone of this post. I have nothing but praise for MtGox.
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