So, some recent problems I've been working on:
...
2) We were running out of available funds, which means we would pay with pending funds which can lead to a very poor user experience. I've made a change such that once the available funds drops below a certain point Satoshidice will only process bets that meet our isLegit() check. This check passes if the transaction is confirmed or if the transaction and all its UNCONFIRMED parents are known by Satoshidice and have a fee of at least 0.0005 BTC and if the depth of unconfirmed parents is less than 8. This can lead to a delay, but I think it makes sense when available funds are running low to use them on the transactions most likely to confirm soon first.
You haven't paid an adequate minimum fee, you must be sending with a non-standard client. Double-spend prevention logic dictates that nobody accept your transaction until it is confirmed by being included in a block: Two things: 1) the quote from fireduck doesn't say that he's checking that the fee is big enough according to the network rules, just that he's checking that it is at least 0.0005 BTC 2) http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/txlist/ agrees that the transaction is "low priority", ie. the inputs are too small and/or new to not require a fee, and so the transaction requires a fee of 0.0005 BTC per kB or part kB. Your transaction is 2.2 kB, so requires a fee of at least 0.0015 BTC according to the satoshi client. edit: forgot to include screenshot of the transaction from the above link:  |
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The 2k BTC loss seems to be a result of the following bets: Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <16000 216040 8eb91d1671e6420d:3 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 250.00000000 WIN 750.67350000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <16000 216040 9097d27a3cbc86b5:3 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <16000 216040 c461c71759e3963b:3 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <16000 216040 c753775f14383778:3 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <16000 216040 e0a0a276a8f3f746:3 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 250.00000000 WIN 750.67350000
Thu Jan 10 19:20:12 2013 <24000 216041 8eb91d1671e6420d:2 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 250.00000000 WIN 417.53216666
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <24000 216040 9097d27a3cbc86b5:2 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 250.00000000 WIN 417.53216666
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <24000 216040 c461c71759e3963b:2 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk BET 250.00000000 WIN 417.53216666
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <24000 216040 c753775f14383778:2 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <24000 216040 e0a0a276a8f3f746:2 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <32000 216040 8eb91d1671e6420d:1 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 100.38430000
Thu Jan 10 19:20:12 2013 <32000 216041 9097d27a3cbc86b5:1 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 100.00000000 LOSE -99.50050000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <32000 216040 c461c71759e3963b:1 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk BET 100.00000000 LOSE -99.50050000
Thu Jan 10 19:49:00 2013 <32000 216042 c753775f14383778:1 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 100.38430000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <32000 216040 e0a0a276a8f3f746:1 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 100.38430000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <32768 216040 8eb91d1671e6420d:0 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 100.00000000 LOSE -99.50050000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <32768 216040 9097d27a3cbc86b5:0 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 95.69950000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <32768 216040 c461c71759e3963b:0 1B5h9sf6xNLYGa3NBk48hwYbxyNZ22PRJk BET 100.00000000 WIN 95.69950000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <32768 216040 c753775f14383778:0 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 95.69950000
Thu Jan 10 19:19:35 2013 <32768 216040 e0a0a276a8f3f746:0 1EP4rM8hLZCRSWPNZDWJp9zdvmoWYkkgbQ BET 100.00000000 LOSE -99.50050000
Links to the transactions at satoshidice.com: http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=8eb91d1671e6420dhttp://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=9097d27a3cbc86b5http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=c461c71759e3963bhttp://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=c753775f14383778http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=e0a0a276a8f3f746 |
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txid:n block date game (lucky - result ) address stake payout profit cumulative profit
------------------ ------ ------------------ ------ ----- --------- ---------------------------------- ----- ------ ------ -----------------
88543aa66caddaa9:0 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <48000 (50204 - LOSE ) 12evzTZQ1GmrrxMr5UKj32gBr3RXkW8N7X 0.75 0.00 -0.75 -0.75
88543aa66caddaa9:1 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <32768 (18502 - WIN ) 12evzTZQ1GmrrxMr5UKj32gBr3RXkW8N7X 0.75 1.47 0.72 -0.03
88543aa66caddaa9:2 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <32000 (38389 - LOSE ) 12evzTZQ1GmrrxMr5UKj32gBr3RXkW8N7X 0.75 0.00 -0.75 -0.78
88543aa66caddaa9:3 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <24000 ( 1741 - WIN ) 12evzTZQ1GmrrxMr5UKj32gBr3RXkW8N7X 0.35 0.93 0.58 -0.19
88543aa66caddaa9:4 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <16000 (58245 - LOSE ) 12evzTZQ1GmrrxMr5UKj32gBr3RXkW8N7X 0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.44
88543aa66caddaa9:5 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <12000 (62352 - LOSE ) 12evzTZQ1GmrrxMr5UKj32gBr3RXkW8N7X 0.03 0.00 -0.02 -0.47
88543aa66caddaa9:6 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <1000 (12375 - LOSE ) 12evzTZQ1GmrrxMr5UKj32gBr3RXkW8N7X 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.48
88543aa66caddaa9:7 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <1 (49889 - LOSE ) 12evzTZQ1GmrrxMr5UKj32gBr3RXkW8N7X 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.49
d778d7e8ca012e62:1 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <6000 (40834 - LOSE ) 17got1CjrA38kL4dmRiGfAmPdKqmURY3Kx 5.12 0.03 -5.09 -5.58
f89388ec0b7e2c9a:1 216060 17:04:18 Jan-10-13 <32000 (38250 - LOSE ) 1GikKbKaUVsXhxYghZRUjddGe2SjfDHHg5 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -6.08
----- ----- -----
8.51 2.44 -6.08
Total of 10 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-10 04:52pm (up to block 216060)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 64243 | 0 (0.00000) | 63113 | 1130 | 560.96 | 0.01 | 87.62 | 560.94 | 0.004
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3275 | 0 (0.00000) | 2783 | 492 | 47.80 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 47.80 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5294 | 1 (0.00021) | 4875 | 418 | 70.74 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -89.21 | 226.098
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7854 | 2 (0.00027) | 7432 | 420 | 113.20 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 97.11 | 14.214
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9700 | 1 (0.00011) | 9292 | 407 | 282.68 | 4.51 | 18.65 | 278.16 | 1.598
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 10208 | 3 (0.00031) | 9816 | 389 | 549.12 | 303.51 | 1.36 | 245.60 | 55.273
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12434 | 12 (0.00100) | 12024 | 398 | 811.48 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 655.79 | 19.185
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15400 | 29 (0.00194) | 14944 | 427 | 1871.02 | 1323.95 | 48.31 | 547.07 | 70.761
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17302 | 73 (0.00431) | 16854 | 375 | 2177.96 | 3209.55 | 13.16 | -1031.59 | 147.365
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25339 | 187 (0.00758) | 24484 | 668 | 4298.33 | 3956.89 | 9.94 | 341.43 | 92.057
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 75514 | 1157 (0.01541) | 73920 | 437 | 19339.94 | 17131.52 | 1.91 | 2208.41 | 88.581
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19813 | 463 (0.02379) | 19002 | 348 | 6394.33 | 6446.66 | 15.06 | -52.33 | 100.818
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 44901 | 1385 (0.03111) | 43140 | 376 | 20673.69 | 18226.99 | 9.31 | 2446.69 | 88.165
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22922 | 1038 (0.04610) | 21477 | 407 | 8400.08 | 9443.33 | 25.08 | -1043.25 | 112.420
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28540 | 1732 (0.06146) | 26447 | 361 | 6214.57 | 5919.52 | 31.25 | 295.04 | 95.252
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32757 | 3035 (0.09375) | 29338 | 384 | 13258.17 | 14774.58 | 7.11 | -1516.41 | 111.438
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 134944 | 16553 (0.12306) | 117959 | 432 | 52606.61 | 51237.25 | 100.18 | 1369.36 | 97.397
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 51720 | 9521 (0.18561) | 41776 | 423 | 84640.26 | 82806.23 | 3314.63 | 1834.02 | 97.833
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 160846 | 39051 (0.24348) | 121339 | 456 | 182053.11 | 181178.18 | 1617.02 | 874.93 | 99.519
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 135299 | 49640 (0.36820) | 85179 | 480 | 177309.11 | 175436.64 | 1012.86 | 1872.46 | 98.944
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 843615 | 411375 (0.48841) | 430902 | 1338 | 560784.80 | 551285.40 | 2923.90 | 9499.39 | 98.306
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 371965 | 185368 (0.49940) | 185815 | 782 | 397516.93 | 388849.05 | 5720.12 | 8667.88 | 97.819
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 246877 | 181327 (0.73598) | 65047 | 503 | 245708.82 | 240183.09 | 5454.76 | 5525.72 | 97.751
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43947 | 34615 (0.79476) | 8939 | 393 | 48863.95 | 47922.20 | 1187.12 | 941.75 | 98.073
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 33382 | 28211 (0.85615) | 4740 | 431 | 45889.24 | 45284.98 | 400.12 | 604.26 | 98.683
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 41828 | 37932 (0.91570) | 3492 | 404 | 50564.53 | 50212.25 | 0.10 | 352.28 | 99.303
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11731 | 10896 (0.98100) | 211 | 624 | 21402.49 | 21053.87 | 239.42 | 348.62 | 98.371
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2391826 | 974798 | 1403613 | 13415 | 550397.95 | 538591.76 | 205.84 | 11806.18 | 97.855
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 79824 | 38809 | 40727 | 288 | 1402006.09 | 1377930.28 | 22123.70 | 24075.81 | 98.283
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2471650 | 1013607 | 1444340 | 13703 | 1952404.05 | 1916522.04 | 22329.54 | 35882.00 | 98.162
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 35882.00615605 BTC (1.838%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1667.32267500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 34214.68348105 BTC (1.752%)
Pending Liabilities: -6.07891689 BTC
Final SD Profit: 34220.76239794 BTC (1.753%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 8100534 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4540835 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 3450.7 : SatoshiDice MB: 1865.8 (54.1%)   |
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I noticed there are other games on the site besides JOB9/6 like Deuces Wild Tens or Better etc. From what I can discern the JOB9/6 is still the best payout. AMIRITE?
There are 6 games. Here are the expected returns of each, taken from pages linked from http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/ : In the order listed on site: 99.5439% jacks or better 99.1388% tens or better 99.1660% bonus poker 99.1065% double bonus 98.9808% double double bonus 99.4179% deuces wild Sorted by expected return: 99.5439% jacks or better 99.4179% deuces wild 99.1660% bonus poker 99.1388% tens or better 99.1065% double bonus 98.9808% double double bonus In short, you were rite.       |
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Sorry if I missed this. When the bet size is .005, does the single bet qualify for the progressive, or only the 5 bet, which would be a .025 bet?
If not, then it would be far preferable to do "max bet" on the .001 bet than a single bet with .005, and it would be pointless to do any betting from the .05-.2 range.
The paytable clearly shows that you only get the jackpot if you play 5 credits at a time. So you're right that it never makes sense to play a single 0.005 credit when you always have a better expectation from playing 5 0.001 credits. It's hard to make the case that it's "pointless" to bet 2 0.005 chips per spin. The expected return isn't much different either way, but the variance is higher with higher stakes. In most cases the expected return is slightly negative either way, and so arguably it's all "pointless". |
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I see there is a progressive for the RF now for 5 coin bets. At 4888 payout for the RF the game becomes 100% payout.
Only if you modify your playing strategy optimally, taking the size of the jackpot into account. If you only know how to play optimally for a 4000 jackpot and always play that way then the pot has to reach 4921 before the game is expected to pay out 100%. And if you're using the auto mode then it probably has to be even higher than that, since auto mode doesn't even play optimally when the pot is 4000. |
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I do not seem to be able to login to the user that I was previously.
https://www.xavoa.com/login lets you try to log in, but gives me an error when I try. It looks like he's trying to allow users to get started immediately without registering (like bitcoinvideopoker.com and instawallet do) by assigning them a secret URL. |
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Off by being non-optimal, or off by not being the Wizard of Odds' strategy? The Wizard's strategy is only very slightly non-optimal.
"dial it in so it plays real 99.xx% payback" All the wizardofodds strategies achieve 99.xx% payback, so I guess he's not complaining that it's using the wrong one. |
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txid:n block date game (lucky - result ) address stake payout profit cumulative profit
------------------ ------ ------------------ ------ ----- --------- ---------------------------------- ----- ------ ------ -----------------
529492091c4b56c2:1 215878 09:36:07 Jan-09-13 <32768 (37936 - LOSE ) 1BC4ZE7QydQXigB6Ks8TccvRB1j8tMaN1n 6.50 0.03 -6.47 -6.47
----- ----- -----
6.50 0.03 -6.47
Total of 1 bet unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-09 09:44am (up to block 215879)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 63831 | 0 (0.00000) | 62704 | 1127 | 555.63 | 0.01 | 87.32 | 555.61 | 0.004
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3241 | 0 (0.00000) | 2749 | 492 | 47.37 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 47.37 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5254 | 1 (0.00021) | 4835 | 418 | 70.16 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -89.79 | 227.967
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7796 | 2 (0.00027) | 7374 | 420 | 112.40 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 96.31 | 14.315
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9587 | 1 (0.00011) | 9179 | 407 | 272.07 | 4.50 | 18.65 | 267.56 | 1.656
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9747 | 3 (0.00032) | 9355 | 389 | 542.91 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 239.40 | 55.904
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12400 | 12 (0.00100) | 11990 | 398 | 810.93 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 655.25 | 19.198
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15361 | 28 (0.00187) | 14906 | 427 | 1869.35 | 1318.95 | 48.31 | 550.40 | 70.557
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17260 | 73 (0.00432) | 16812 | 375 | 2177.29 | 3209.55 | 13.16 | -1032.26 | 147.410
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25265 | 186 (0.00756) | 24411 | 668 | 4296.78 | 3955.64 | 9.94 | 341.13 | 92.061
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 75216 | 1156 (0.01546) | 73623 | 437 | 19308.40 | 17130.76 | 1.91 | 2177.64 | 88.722
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19761 | 461 (0.02375) | 18952 | 348 | 6393.01 | 6445.81 | 15.06 | -52.80 | 100.826
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 44468 | 1379 (0.03128) | 42713 | 376 | 20585.62 | 17743.21 | 9.31 | 2842.40 | 86.192
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22722 | 1031 (0.04620) | 21284 | 407 | 8376.33 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.06 | 112.608
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28479 | 1729 (0.06149) | 26389 | 361 | 6177.09 | 5679.15 | 31.25 | 497.94 | 91.939
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32653 | 3024 (0.09371) | 29245 | 384 | 13130.27 | 14681.94 | 7.11 | -1551.66 | 111.817
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 134551 | 16506 (0.12307) | 117613 | 432 | 52383.00 | 50931.42 | 100.18 | 1451.58 | 97.229
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 51300 | 9441 (0.18557) | 41436 | 423 | 84421.21 | 82746.31 | 3314.63 | 1674.89 | 98.016
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 159923 | 38844 (0.24359) | 120623 | 456 | 180449.12 | 178925.96 | 1617.02 | 1523.15 | 99.156
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 133548 | 48985 (0.36812) | 84083 | 480 | 175711.91 | 173100.46 | 1012.86 | 2611.44 | 98.514
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 838151 | 408703 (0.48840) | 428110 | 1338 | 558420.21 | 548791.82 | 2923.90 | 9628.38 | 98.276
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 366807 | 182756 (0.49930) | 183269 | 782 | 395076.84 | 386144.18 | 5720.12 | 8932.66 | 97.739
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 243823 | 179040 (0.73582) | 64280 | 503 | 245112.05 | 239589.69 | 5454.76 | 5522.35 | 97.747
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43624 | 34347 (0.79450) | 8884 | 393 | 48762.85 | 47819.18 | 1187.12 | 943.66 | 98.065
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 33023 | 27913 (0.85644) | 4679 | 431 | 45719.61 | 45118.45 | 400.12 | 601.15 | 98.685
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 40954 | 37132 (0.91571) | 3418 | 404 | 50060.72 | 49721.93 | 0.10 | 338.78 | 99.323
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11686 | 10852 (0.98102) | 210 | 624 | 21386.52 | 21037.94 | 239.42 | 348.58 | 98.370
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2370926 | 964951 | 1392563 | 13412 | 546995.17 | 535320.06 | 205.54 | 11675.10 | 97.866
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 79505 | 38654 | 40563 | 288 | 1395234.60 | 1368844.55 | 22123.70 | 26390.04 | 98.109
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2450431 | 1003605 | 1433126 | 13700 | 1942229.77 | 1904164.61 | 22329.24 | 38065.15 | 98.040
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 38065.15637365 BTC (1.960%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1646.00407500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 36419.15229865 BTC (1.875%)
Pending Liabilities: -6.46800000 BTC
Final SD Profit: 36425.62029865 BTC (1.875%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 8032834 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4500418 (56.0%)
Blockchain MB: 3421.5 : SatoshiDice MB: 1849.4 (54.1%)   |
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quick question: those of you posting the "number of bets, winnings" stuff, where are you finding that? i just pulled my transaction history for my payout address and i THINK i'm up about 1 btc, but i'd like to see that somewhere if it's available.
I think that was from the official satoshidice client program "SatoshiRoller" that they released a while back. Where is this client? The only link I found directs you back to satoshidice. Looks like I was wrong, and it's the blockchain.info wallet's SD feature that was tracking overall profit. You can see that SatoshiRoller has a similar but different display:  You can get the client from http://satoshidice.com/roller/ - though I can't find it linked anywhere on their site. There's a forum thread announcing the client here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=124093.0 |
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exactly. and they changed also something in the logic to become more profitable. my experience is bad from the start of the change. they changed also the min. bet from 0.001 to 0.01 without any explanation. my guess is that they want to prevent systematic bets and have more bets of real players because they risk more without any logic.
EDIT: wow max. bet is changed to 500 BTC. seams to me they have to become more profitable to pay out a good interest to the shareholders. so nothing realy new in the bitcoin world. if money comes into the game the old rules rule.
There's no change "to become more profitable" if by that you're suggesting that they're cheating. You have the same chance of winning now as you did before. and the site is still "provably fair"; you can check that they're not cheating you by calculating the hashes for yourself The only change is for people who make multiple bets in a single transaction. You used to get the same lucky number for all bets in a transaction, so you could bet 250 BTC on "lessthan 56000", another 250 BTC on "lessthan 52000" and so on, and end up with a huge bet of several thousand BTC. All the bets would get the same lucky number, so if the number was low enough they would all win. That was very risky, and caused huge swings in the profit/loss of the site. The min bet was increased because people were making thousands of min bets, and the system was unable to keep up with them. The current min bet is only about 13 US cents. The max bet changing to 500 BTC is a direct result of people now being unable to make multiple bets against the same lucky number. Since you now can't place thousand-BTC bets against a lucky number, it's safe to increase the max bet a bit. |
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I would be interested to see information about bet sizes. I understand you probably don't want to reveal it, or you would have done. I'm interested to see if there are really people playing for 20 BTC per hand, or whether the majority of the action is in the microcoin area (where I tend to play).
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So again it's better to martingale a series of high-multiplier bets than to play a single large low-multiplier bet.
Why??
I think I found the reason: I have to choose between two seeming equivalent betting strategies: a) I commit to betting 1, 2, 4 on a bet that pays out 2x with a 1/2 probability of winning each time, and that the house takes 2% of everything I stake as a service charge. I'm committed to risking up to 7 to win 1. b) I bet the 7 all at once on a bet that pays out (8/7)x and which has a 7/8 probability of winning. Again, the house takes its 2% service charge of all stakes. In both cases I risk 7 to win 1. In both cases I have a 1/8 probability of losing 7 chips. The difference is in the service charge. In a) there's a good (75%) chance that I won't need to bet the 4, because either the 1 or the 2 will win. So I'll be paying less service charge. In b) I pay 2% of the full 7 chips. There's no service charge at satoshidice, but there's a house edge, which is effectively the same thing. Breaking a single low-multiplier high-stake bet up into a martingale series of high-multiplier low-stake bets means on average I'll be staking less to achieve the same result. So while it's true that martingale betting can't reduce the house edge, it's also true that martingale betting can be used to give a higher expected return than placing a single large equivalent bet by reducing the average amount that needs to be staked to achieve the desired return. |
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I still find it hard to believe that some of the addresses, particularly Satoshi less than 3000 consistently lose all the time. The amount of money wagered shouldn't make a difference.. it still bothers me. I mean, if I scale it up with 750 BTC, you mean I could make some decent profits out it? Unfortunately, I can't afford to lose 10 grand so.. I can't test it for sure.
I just went through the last 6 pages of this thread and pulled out all the 'lessthan 3000' lines from the reports: Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
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1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20511 | 934 (0.04645) | 19173 | 404 | 8154.32 | 9295.88 | 25.08 | -1141.55 | 113.999
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20515 | 934 (0.04644) | 19177 | 404 | 8154.89 | 9295.88 | 25.08 | -1140.98 | 113.991
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20560 | 937 (0.04649) | 19219 | 404 | 8156.33 | 9297.20 | 25.08 | -1140.86 | 113.988
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20791 | 949 (0.04655) | 19438 | 404 | 8164.30 | 9306.36 | 25.08 | -1142.06 | 113.989
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20898 | 950 (0.04636) | 19544 | 404 | 8167.00 | 9306.90 | 25.08 | -1139.89 | 113.957
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20917 | 951 (0.04636) | 19562 | 404 | 8167.47 | 9307.11 | 25.08 | -1139.64 | 113.953
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20959 | 954 (0.04641) | 19601 | 404 | 8168.57 | 9307.96 | 25.08 | -1139.38 | 113.948
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20988 | 956 (0.04644) | 19628 | 404 | 8168.97 | 9308.39 | 25.08 | -1139.41 | 113.948
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20998 | 956 (0.04642) | 19638 | 404 | 8179.64 | 9308.44 | 25.08 | -1128.79 | 113.800
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21013 | 957 (0.04644) | 19651 | 405 | 8179.81 | 9308.65 | 25.08 | -1128.84 | 113.800
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21021 | 957 (0.04642) | 19659 | 405 | 8179.90 | 9308.65 | 25.08 | -1128.75 | 113.799
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21051 | 957 (0.04635) | 19689 | 405 | 8187.80 | 9308.68 | 25.08 | -1120.88 | 113.690
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21090 | 958 (0.04632) | 19726 | 406 | 8189.94 | 9311.03 | 25.08 | -1121.08 | 113.689
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21165 | 964 (0.04644) | 19795 | 406 | 8192.48 | 9314.22 | 25.08 | -1121.74 | 113.692
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21192 | 964 (0.04638) | 19822 | 406 | 8194.11 | 9314.23 | 25.08 | -1120.11 | 113.670
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21206 | 964 (0.04635) | 19835 | 407 | 8195.82 | 9314.23 | 25.08 | -1118.40 | 113.646
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21220 | 965 (0.04637) | 19848 | 407 | 8196.73 | 9316.36 | 25.08 | -1119.63 | 113.660
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21406 | 972 (0.04629) | 20027 | 407 | 8206.00 | 9317.88 | 25.08 | -1111.88 | 113.550
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22382 | 1021 (0.04646) | 20954 | 407 | 8219.26 | 9328.96 | 25.08 | -1109.69 | 113.501
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22387 | 1022 (0.04650) | 20958 | 407 | 8219.41 | 9329.17 | 25.08 | -1109.75 | 113.502
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22402 | 1023 (0.04651) | 20972 | 407 | 8219.68 | 9329.38 | 25.08 | -1109.70 | 113.501
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22558 | 1028 (0.04641) | 21123 | 407 | 8353.23 | 9416.33 | 25.08 | -1063.09 | 112.727
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22568 | 1028 (0.04639) | 21133 | 407 | 8353.56 | 9416.33 | 25.08 | -1062.76 | 112.722
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22660 | 1030 (0.04629) | 21223 | 407 | 8364.31 | 9417.42 | 25.08 | -1053.11 | 112.591
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22672 | 1030 (0.04626) | 21235 | 407 | 8364.65 | 9417.42 | 25.08 | -1052.77 | 112.586
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22695 | 1031 (0.04626) | 21257 | 407 | 8375.60 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.79 | 112.618
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22705 | 1031 (0.04624) | 21267 | 407 | 8376.04 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.36 | 112.612
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22712 | 1031 (0.04622) | 21274 | 407 | 8376.23 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.16 | 112.609
That covers the last 4 weeks. 4 weeks ago the house was 1141.55 BTC down on "lessthan 3000" overall. Now they're only 1056.16 BTC down on the same bet. That means the house has won around 100 BTC on "lessthan 3000" in the last 4 weeks. If you look at the profit column, you'll see the negative number is pretty consistently getting less negative day by day. That means the house is consistently winning on lessthan 3000. They just had a bad run of large bets some months ago and didn't recover from it yet. |
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Total of 28 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-08 11:42am (up to block 215756)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 63618 | 0 (0.00000) | 62496 | 1122 | 549.83 | 0.01 | 86.85 | 549.81 | 0.004
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3230 | 0 (0.00000) | 2738 | 492 | 47.26 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 47.26 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5242 | 1 (0.00021) | 4823 | 418 | 70.03 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -89.92 | 228.401
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7788 | 2 (0.00027) | 7366 | 420 | 112.31 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 96.22 | 14.326
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9552 | 1 (0.00011) | 9144 | 407 | 267.35 | 4.49 | 18.65 | 262.85 | 1.681
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9509 | 3 (0.00033) | 9117 | 389 | 539.44 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 235.93 | 56.263
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12389 | 12 (0.00100) | 11979 | 398 | 810.72 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 655.03 | 19.203
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15347 | 28 (0.00188) | 14892 | 427 | 1867.79 | 1318.94 | 48.31 | 548.84 | 70.615
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17248 | 73 (0.00433) | 16800 | 375 | 2176.63 | 3209.55 | 13.16 | -1032.92 | 147.455
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25255 | 186 (0.00756) | 24401 | 668 | 4296.39 | 3955.64 | 9.94 | 340.74 | 92.069
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 75148 | 1155 (0.01546) | 73556 | 437 | 19296.96 | 17130.07 | 1.91 | 2166.89 | 88.771
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19754 | 461 (0.02376) | 18945 | 348 | 6392.27 | 6445.81 | 15.06 | -53.53 | 100.838
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 44400 | 1376 (0.03126) | 42648 | 376 | 20579.07 | 17740.59 | 9.31 | 2838.47 | 86.207
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22712 | 1031 (0.04622) | 21274 | 407 | 8376.23 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.16 | 112.609
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28467 | 1728 (0.06148) | 26378 | 361 | 6173.72 | 5678.95 | 31.25 | 494.76 | 91.986
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32637 | 3022 (0.09370) | 29231 | 384 | 13130.03 | 14681.40 | 7.11 | -1551.37 | 111.815
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 134407 | 16496 (0.12313) | 117479 | 432 | 52362.72 | 50904.08 | 100.18 | 1458.63 | 97.214
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 51163 | 9412 (0.18549) | 41328 | 423 | 84392.38 | 82709.33 | 3314.63 | 1683.04 | 98.006
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 159171 | 38673 (0.24366) | 120042 | 456 | 177874.34 | 177835.60 | 1617.02 | 38.73 | 99.978
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 132800 | 48722 (0.36821) | 83598 | 480 | 174919.57 | 172451.25 | 1012.86 | 2468.31 | 98.589
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 835135 | 407257 (0.48844) | 426540 | 1338 | 557610.42 | 548062.95 | 2923.90 | 9547.46 | 98.288
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 364002 | 181330 (0.49923) | 181890 | 782 | 394004.16 | 385119.70 | 5720.12 | 8884.45 | 97.745
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 242574 | 178144 (0.73592) | 63927 | 503 | 244853.15 | 239313.11 | 5454.76 | 5540.04 | 97.737
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43449 | 34213 (0.79462) | 8843 | 393 | 48699.62 | 47756.76 | 1187.12 | 942.85 | 98.064
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32910 | 27814 (0.85637) | 4665 | 431 | 45389.11 | 44762.89 | 400.12 | 626.22 | 98.620
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 40464 | 36686 (0.91578) | 3374 | 404 | 49891.53 | 49564.97 | 0.10 | 326.55 | 99.345
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11680 | 10847 (0.98110) | 209 | 624 | 21386.33 | 21037.76 | 239.42 | 348.57 | 98.370
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2360751 | 960122 | 1387222 | 13407 | 545125.12 | 533553.42 | 205.07 | 11571.69 | 97.877
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 79300 | 38551 | 40461 | 288 | 1390944.36 | 1366198.21 | 22123.70 | 24746.15 | 98.221
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2440051 | 998673 | 1427683 | 13695 | 1936069.48 | 1899751.64 | 22328.77 | 36317.84 | 98.124
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 36317.84369285 BTC (1.876%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1635.60487500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 34682.23881785 BTC (1.791%)
Pending Liabilities: 40.68659544 BTC
Final SD Profit: 34641.55222241 BTC (1.789%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 7994821 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4480860 (56.0%)
Blockchain MB: 3404.2 : SatoshiDice MB: 1841.5 (54.1%)   |
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Hmmm, what I think you're seeing is actually satoshidice fudging the payout multiplier and to make nice even numbers
I wasn't using the published multipliers, because as you say they're rounded. I was calculating the actual multipliers using a formula which I derived like this: (lessthan * payout + (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) / 65536 = 0.981 (multiply both sides by 65536)
(lessthan * payout + (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) = 0.981 * 65536 (subtract (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005 from both sides)
(lessthan * payout) = 0.981 * 65536 - (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005 (divide both sides by lessthan)
so, payout = (0.981 * 65536 - (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) / lessthan
If you compare the values that gives you for the payout multiplier with the published values, you find it's very close in every case except for the "lessthan 1", where the site is actually a little over generous (but that's deliberate - they state the hose edge is slightly smaller for that bet): >>> for (lessthan, actual) in [(64000, 1.004), (60000, 1.071), (56000, 1.147), (52000, 1.235), (48000, 1.338), (32768, 1.957), (32000, 2.004), (24000, 2.670), (16000, 4.003), (12000, 5.335), (8000, 8.000), (6000, 10.666), (4000, 15.996), (3000, 21.326), (2000, 31.987), (1500, 42.647), (1000, 63.968), (512, 124.933), (256, 249.861), (128, 499.717), (64, 999.429), (32, 1998.853), (16, 3997.701), (8, 7995.397), (4, 15990.789), (2, 31981.573), (1, 64000.000)]:
... print "lessthan %5d payout %9.3f (error %9.6f)" % (lessthan, actual, actual - (0.981 * 65536 - (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) / lessthan)
...
lessthan 64000 payout 1.004 (error -0.000424)
lessthan 60000 payout 1.071 (error -0.000052)
lessthan 56000 payout 1.147 (error -0.000199)
lessthan 52000 payout 1.235 (error -0.000060)
lessthan 48000 payout 1.338 (error 0.000435)
lessthan 32768 payout 1.957 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 32000 payout 2.004 (error 0.000152)
lessthan 24000 payout 2.670 (error -0.000131)
lessthan 16000 payout 4.003 (error 0.000304)
lessthan 12000 payout 5.335 (error -0.000261)
lessthan 8000 payout 8.000 (error -0.000392)
lessthan 6000 payout 10.666 (error 0.000477)
lessthan 4000 payout 15.996 (error 0.000216)
lessthan 3000 payout 21.326 (error -0.000045)
lessthan 2000 payout 31.987 (error 0.000432)
lessthan 1500 payout 42.647 (error -0.000091)
lessthan 1000 payout 63.968 (error -0.000136)
lessthan 512 payout 124.933 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 256 payout 249.861 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 128 payout 499.717 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 64 payout 999.429 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 32 payout 1998.853 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 16 payout 3997.701 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 8 payout 7995.397 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 4 payout 15990.789 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 2 payout 31981.573 (error 0.000000)
lessthan 1 payout 64000.000 (error 36.859000)
What happens with your strategy if you try a martingale on the less than 2 (ignoring mins and max bets for hypothetical purposes)?
Let's not ignore the mins and maxes. They're currently 0.01 and 0.1844 (though they seem to change every few seconds now). Here's a strategy to win 319 BTC betting on lessthan 2 in 91761 bets, starting at min bet and working up to max bet: win on turn 1 : bet = 0.01000000, spent = 0.01050000, win = 319.81523000, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000000, profit = 319.80473000 (99.997% to lose all)
win on turn 2 : bet = 0.01000033, spent = 0.02100033, win = 319.82573031, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000001, profit = 319.80472999 (99.994% to lose all)
win on turn 3 : bet = 0.01000066, spent = 0.03150098, win = 319.83623095, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000002, profit = 319.80472999 (99.991% to lose all)
win on turn 4 : bet = 0.01000099, spent = 0.04200197, win = 319.84673192, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000003, profit = 319.80472998 (99.988% to lose all)
win on turn 5 : bet = 0.01000131, spent = 0.05250328, win = 319.85723322, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000004, profit = 319.80472998 (99.985% to lose all)
win on turn 91757 : bet = 0.18437485, spent = 5580.49620770, win = 5896.59719089, lose = 0.00042187, back = 3.70328891, profit = 319.80427210 ( 6.080% to lose all)
win on turn 91758 : bet = 0.18438062, spent = 5580.68108832, win = 5896.78164963, lose = 0.00042190, back = 3.70371078, profit = 319.80427209 ( 6.079% to lose all)
win on turn 91759 : bet = 0.18438638, spent = 5580.86597470, win = 5896.96611411, lose = 0.00042193, back = 3.70413268, profit = 319.80427209 ( 6.079% to lose all)
win on turn 91760 : bet = 0.18439215, spent = 5581.05086685, win = 5897.15058433, lose = 0.00042196, back = 3.70455461, profit = 319.80427209 ( 6.079% to lose all)
win on turn 91761 : bet = 0.18439792, spent = 5581.23576477, win = 5897.33506029, lose = 0.00042198, back = 3.70497657, profit = 319.80427209 ( 6.079% to lose all)
It risks 5581.23576477 to win 319.80427209 and has a 6.079% chance of losing everything. That's a payout of 1.057x and has the same risk as "lessthan 61552" (if it existed): >>> 319.80427209 / 5581.23576477 + 1
1.0572999037433028
>>> 65536 * (1 - 6.079/100)
61552.06656
If satoshidice offered "lessthan 61552", they'd payout 1.044x on it: >>> lessthan = 65536 * (1 - 6.079/100); (0.981 * 65536 - (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) / lessthan
1.04417121836437
So again it's better to martingale a series of high-multiplier bets than to play a single large low-multiplier bet. Why?? |
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Do you mind sharing how the auto function works? Does it play perfect plays or was it crippled?
He already did: What's going on here? I was using the auto play feature, got dealt Ah 3d Tc 4h 2d and it auto-held and played the off-suit A234.
[...] I was already following that simple strategy you recommended [...] The simple strategy I recommended was http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/jacks-or-better/9-6/simple/Edit: so it isn't perfect, but it's pretty good. It gets a 99.46% payout, whereas it's possible to get 99.54% if you play optimally. Also, the size of the jackpot should affect your strategy, but the 'simple strategy' doesn't take that into account. Finally, the 'simple strategy' assumes the royal flush payout is 800 times the bet, which isn't the case unless you play 5 chips at once. |
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Ima go try it right now. Thanks! BTW is that pic real? did he really win all those BTC?
That picture wasn't real. It was taken by the site's developer when he was testing it. But this picture is real. Someone did get a royal flush and win a pretty big jackpot: |
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Very nice. Thanks for publishing that. |
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