Proof of stake is literally the saying ‘he who has the gold makes the rules’ implemented in crypto coin form. It’s basically the most centralizing force in crypto that in my opinion goes against the principles that crypto was founded on. It ensures those with the most gold always make the rules though, so if you think that’s a good thing, you might be a PoSer.
It is very much like banking with no regulations other than what the top 5 coin holders want. I simply ask this question if satoshi was found and put in prison by China or Russia or USA and then found a suicide in his cell what happens to BTC? Not much maybe it even causes mass rioting in the country that did that. But for ETH if MR V. was jailed and found dead in his cell I am pretty sure the coin dies as others fight to control what's left. POS = piece of shit
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May be old and from South America frankly as long as you mine in any other country but china it is a boost for you. My btc earnings are 2x My ltc/doge earnings are 1.5x My eth earnngs are 1.3x actual coins not usd value. Since my exit from mining will be say 2027 when I reach 70 I am not very concerned about this. I am stacking coin as much as I can.
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Beanie Baby Bitcoin going full tulips in the coming 18 months. Anybody still hodling or did you take Billy’s advice & dump those bags? The only use for your digital tokens is pedophile material & drugs online. Don’t get left holding your bags. Bitcoin going to $0.
weeeeeee
I just setup a 201 usd dca purchase on the 1st and 15th of the month. Thank you for your advice. to all 1btc = 1btc https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/12M8G8N48u1DqFqFUVh7N2axGFWSLh16Pk
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Excuse my provocative title ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I am finding that except for a narrow range of BTC price rise, it is better to buy BTC than to mine it. I have been looking at buying Antminer S19j Pro 100 TH (3250W) from compassmining using their hosting ($.0624/kWH) and F2 pool (1.2%) It costs 8000 (after 3% credit card fee). Assuming a starting BTC price of $30,000, with starting difficulty at 1.4363, with both increasing at 4.4% per month: After 3 years: - ROI of mining - 181% - ROI of purchasing BTC - 351% Change the BTC price rising to 6.5% per month, which corresponds to BTC doubling every year: - ROI of mining - 337% - ROI of purchasing BTC - 806% If BTC rises only 1% per month, then the ROI of each about the same. - ROI of mining - 40% - ROI of purchasing BTC - 42% At less than 1% rise per month, mining does better than purchasing. So, you can't mine BTC profitably at current miner prices and hosting fees at compassmining. Prove me wrong! Okay your math is good but I can cherry pick and show opposite numbers with ease. here goes I take cash and buy an s19pro when btc was 10k I am charged .25 btc but I purchased the miner with cash via my bank. So pretend I purchased the coin and hodl. I now have .25 btc = 7875 usd or I got the miner On Jan 1 2021 it has mined steady since then or about 195 days. Now 110th x 195days = 21450th in a day if you please. coin price and earning price has been all over the place. Up down left right but 21450 x 28 cents = 6006 My mining dealing is 1/2 goes to the host or 3003 So I have 3003 in my pocket and a used s19pro which I can sell right here right now for over 5000 So 3003+5000 = 8003 and I put in 2500 if I did coin the coin is 7875 So I am better off with the gear as of today. Never mind my tax breaks I get for mining over buy and hold the coin. Of course you can say I could of sold the .25 btc for as high as 16k. yeah the s19pro used was over 14k. Now if the s19pro breaks on me I am fucked but if btc tanks to 10k I am back to where I was. So basically as long as your gear does not break and turns daily profits you are not fucked mining. Actually mining is a completely different animal than buy and hodl. I'd like to run your numbers through my spreadsheet. What is the 28 cents? Your mining pool takes 50%?? What is your electricity rate? my power rate is ½ the coins mined. 28 cents is current viabtc payout for 1 th of hash rate. so a 110th is really 55th as i gave ½ the coins. I know that since i got the machine in jan i have been paid as high 50 cents a th and as low as 17 cents a th. so 110 x 195 days of mining = 21450 th x 28 cents is 6000 usd worth of coin divide by 2 you get 3000 usd. why because I pay ½ the coin i mine which is ½ of 6000 or 3000 so i used 2500 bank order when coins were 10000. i could have 7875 in coin buy and hodl. or. 3000 from mined coin and a s19pro that i can get 5000 easy peasy thus i have 8000 . actiualy really more as i could get more like 6000 for the unit which would be 9000 and in coin i would have 7875. the math is correct as it really happened for me with the one s19pro i own. but if the gear broke i would be fucked . Simply put if you cherry pick you can make either one mining or buy and hodl. Miners tend to not hodl coin. we take sure profit and less risk. buy and hodl can be a killer. buy a coin at 10k and it shot to 64k you kept hodling and now it is 32k ugh. meanwhile i mine prices drop from 64k to 32k but diff dropped from 25 to 14.3 my cash earnings are about 500 a day for the mine. my may earnings last time coins were 64 k were about 500 a day. no loss in cash. my coin earnings were .0047 a day in may my coin earnings are about 0.0088 a day in july. so as a miner i am still in bull mode. i hodl some of my coins and right now that is bearish. so i have a built in hedge that a coin buyer. does not have.
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Pepper Your Angus
Sub $30,000 today.
Pepper your angus? Is that like "smack the pony"? No it is like butter your baguette
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no transformers not safe.
the apw3++ can do only 850 watts on 120 volts.
the transformer is costly as fuck. and will melt wires if it is quality and can pull a lot more watts on you 120 volt line.
just plug in 1 hashboard.
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Excuse my provocative title ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I am finding that except for a narrow range of BTC price rise, it is better to buy BTC than to mine it. I have been looking at buying Antminer S19j Pro 100 TH (3250W) from compassmining using their hosting ($.0624/kWH) and F2 pool (1.2%) It costs 8000 (after 3% credit card fee). Assuming a starting BTC price of $30,000, with starting difficulty at 1.4363, with both increasing at 4.4% per month: After 3 years: - ROI of mining - 181% - ROI of purchasing BTC - 351% Change the BTC price rising to 6.5% per month, which corresponds to BTC doubling every year: - ROI of mining - 337% - ROI of purchasing BTC - 806% If BTC rises only 1% per month, then the ROI of each about the same. - ROI of mining - 40% - ROI of purchasing BTC - 42% At less than 1% rise per month, mining does better than purchasing. So, you can't mine BTC profitably at current miner prices and hosting fees at compassmining. Prove me wrong! Okay your math is good but I can cherry pick and show opposite numbers with ease. here goes I take cash and buy an s19pro when btc was 10k I am charged .25 btc but I purchased the miner with cash via my bank. So pretend I purchased the coin and hodl. I now have .25 btc = 7875 usd or I got the miner On Jan 1 2021 it has mined steady since then or about 195 days. Now 110th x 195days = 21450th in a day if you please. coin price and earning price has been all over the place. Up down left right but 21450 x 28 cents = 6006 My mining dealing is 1/2 goes to the host or 3003 So I have 3003 in my pocket and a used s19pro which I can sell right here right now for over 5000 So 3003+5000 = 8003 and I put in 2500 if I did coin the coin is 7875 So I am better off with the gear as of today. Never mind my tax breaks I get for mining over buy and hold the coin. Of course you can say I could of sold the .25 btc for as high as 16k. yeah the s19pro used was over 14k. Now if the s19pro breaks on me I am fucked but if btc tanks to 10k I am back to where I was. So basically as long as your gear does not break and turns daily profits you are not fucked mining. Actually mining is a completely different animal than buy and hodl.
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I have been using both mynode & raspiblitz for a while. Been discussing it on and off in a few of the LN threads.
Both are sold products. But regardless of what people say I really feel both are pushing the limits of what you can do with an RPi. I setup the mynode as a VM with 4GB of RAM using a 7200RPM drive that is being used for other things on the PC and it just feels better then the 8GB RPi with an SSD. Can't explain it past just how the web browser or SSH feels when using it.
But, enjoy, you will learn a lot. And having your own lightning node is good to. And you can also use it as your own personal electrum server :-)
-Dave
Frankly I was interested in it on the rasp pi level, but and this is big I think that buying the firmware for 100 and running it on a unit like this one below is better. https://www.ebay.com/itm/284352530843?I am not there yet but will be playing around with the mynode for a while. I want to see if simply buying the firmware and getting an image for a pc from them is feasible. but that will be down the road from now. I think I will end up running a dell with virtual box much like you are. I have a very nice dell with an i7 8700 inside it. it is a 32gb ram micro pc. much like this one. https://www.ebay.com/itm/164666727891?It has 2 tb ssd in it. and the 32gb of ram. I am thinking it smokes the rasp pi.
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Note. to modes I separated this post for clarity So I created the LN wallet. it is easy peasy just click create wallet up pops this page ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJoFICef.png&t=664&c=Epjyg0elqo3v2Q)
The click create wallet. it will pop with this the seed save it.. hit continue and it asks for that seed to be entered ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FfZ3Vjwr.png&t=664&c=YrO-ivTaDS5WrQ)
here is page you reenter seed ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FQPsqMpV.png&t=664&c=6YmSfLdH_Q3jkQ) once you do that you go to next page
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FOWK0fPk.png&t=664&c=p4p2mk5hhrvl-g)
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Okay the down load of my build from kit is done. I did no Tor I used an 8gb rasp pi I used 2gb from the ssd The download takes over 3 days and 11 hours. Just 5 blocks short of the download ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fk0RrdoP.png&t=664&c=o2EJ19BdSFn3mg) About 2 or 3 minutes later up pops the next screen ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNfohhPO.png&t=664&c=106CD01_CFCVNg)
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Had breakfast 🍳 and coffee ☕️ so I have awakened.
I have a back story here goes I lived in New York City 🌆 I moved to The suburbs in New Jersey in 1992.
In 1996 I met a bank owner and his partners. I have hung out with them since then. I watched them turned a struggling two branch bank in to a successful 7 branch bank. I saw the usa federal laws and regs plus the New Jersey laws they had to obey.
I also saw how banks get into trouble with shifting interest rates.
The pos/pol industry is in direct competition with banking.
Not many regs. My fears are if they do well various countries well make strict laws.
New York state made laws against running a NY based pool for pow mining ⛏.
I used to mine at BtcGuild they had to shut down because they were a usa company.
I simply see a lot of worldwide banking pushback against pos/pol.
But then again I thought ipads were a bad idea. I also thought smart phones were a bad idea.
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I may be overly optimistic, but I think that we've already had the bottom for this year. However, as said, who cares? Especially as it's agreed that we're still in the bull market. And no matter what, on the long term (~4 years) it will surely rise (too) big time, so we're just fine.
I'm an optimist too, and since I'm going long term, I don't care much about this sideways. What I do wonder is what would happen if for whatever reason the price goes below $20K. It would be breaking a historical trend, and there some predictive models would have to be rethought. In any case, I don't think it will happen. I also think we've already hit the bottom and when the price goes up and breaks $40K again, we're going to $100K easy. The diff dump from 25.04 to 14.? which will soon be to 13.9 is an historical trend that has been broken. This is new territory. MY btc mine is earning almost 2x the coin it was in may with no gear expansion. My btc mine is earning almost the exact amount of fiat if I were to cash the btc as I was in may. For any gear owner that has paid off gear this is still bull. A paid off s17 makes 50 x 29cent or 14.50 usd a day power is 60kwatts or 6 dollars at 10 cent power that is 14.5-6 = 9.50 a day he can sell 7.50 of the coin. pay the power pocket 1.50 and hodl 7 usd worth of coin. The market is holding together due this happening. (my guess) For instance I can hodl 1 btc in this address https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/12M8G8N48u1DqFqFUVh7N2axGFWSLh16Pkas long as I want and simply cash the rest of the coins. My worries are not about price dropping to 20k they are about the diff and where it goes for the next 2 months.
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I was asked via pm to look at this thread. It is the first thing I did as I just woke up 5 minutes ago.
My position on pos or pol mining has always been negative. I know the op a long time he has handled a lot of mining equipment for years. With good reviews and pretty honest.
So I am going to monitor the thread and watch it develop. Maybe he has an angle in POS/POL crypto that is good.
I will say this I am in the POW camp and I have stated many times that this is my position.
I am running BTC,LTC/DOGE,ETH gear. Asics and GPUS. I would love to see if pos/pol can work. So I posted here as a skeptic that wants to believe.
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We are in year 12 but I do expect to hear this idea more and more and more as rewards shrink and stale addresses grow.
Anything can happen in the future, I sincerely doubt that we will reach a consensus to touch dormant addresses, but even if that happened, the effect of burning or reusing 1M coins won't change the fact of "diminishing returns". I am not making this up, it's in the chart: Bitcoin went up from low to high as follows: 55617% (2010-2013) 12700% (2014-2017) 1700% (2018-2021) For "diminishing returns" theory to be invalidated bitcoin will need to up with at least one of those cycles, meaning, it has to go to $16,000,000 this cycle to stay in line with the 2010-2013 cycle or at least goes to 400k to keep up with 2014-2017 cycle, the first one is out of the question, I hope that nobody expects bitcoin to go to 16M by the end of this cycle, you might debate the 400k is doable but I would bet the house against it, and then even it magically happened, for the next cycle it needs to be above 10M, I honestly don't think that its remotely possible by any means. So as it stands right now based on the facts that we have before us, the price growth will slow down, the difficulty will also slow down but most likely go up, mining profitability, in the long run, is going to go down, I don't present to know the future, but this has been the case for 10 years and I see no reason as to why it has to change. ----------------------- If we pick random dates yeah, of course, we can do it but if we spread that period with 3 months in each direction what will happen? You picked a peak in price and if we move two months the price goes down to 1/3 , the hashrate simply didn't had time at that point to adjust with the ever-growing price, remember that at the start of the year the price was 1k, dif at 0.3? So to December, it went 20x times in price and 6 times in difficulty.
Ok, if the period I picked didn't work for you, how about 10 years' worth of data? ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) 10 years ago difficulty was 1.5M and the price was $14, 10 years later price is $64,000 and difficulty is 23T, to put that in number digits it's 23,000,000,000,000 now vs 1,500,000 then. Price went up by 457,042% while difficulty went up by 1,533,333,233% , and thus difficulty outperformed price by 335,390%, you can make of that what you want. Of course, but who will produce 1000x of the current gear in the next 10 years?
No one, but I should ask you the same question, what will take bitcoin price 50x in the next 10 years? The price peak was 64k and difficulty was 23T, right? so OP is talking about the difficulty of 46T and price of about 100k, so I think that is possible? very possible, and then in 2023, difficulty sits at 84T and price at 150k? also possible, do I think this can go on forever? of course not and I have said that I agree with your point, but because I know that bitcoin won't be putting 50% up every year, this difficulty doesn't have to put in 100% for OP's projection to be accurate. If you look at the past data in the right way, I believe these numbers have actually been the case or very close, you can't look at 3k vs 60k and say oh well price went 2000%, the 60k was so brief, even the 19k and the 1.5k before it, you need to work with something like the average yearly price by taking the daily close of all candles within that year and divide it by the number of days in the year. For example, the average yearly price for the 2017 peak was 2.8k and not 19k, the average of the previous year was 0.5k (( I used 365 daily moving average on trading view to get that), so realistically speaking, the gains of 2017 was merely 460%, you need to compare that against the average difficulty (can't find an easy way to get but it's doable if someone is willing to). Of course, this can't go on forever, both price and difficulty growth will have to slow down, I can't tell for sure if it's going to be 50% vs 100% or any other ratio, but in the long run, the difficulty will outperform "profitability" assuming price here is somehow irrelevant when another halving hit the place because once the rewards are halved for the next 4 years, the difficulty doesn't need to go up by 100% to keep OP's numbers in check. you are missing the factor of efficiency to get profitably so 1,533,333,233% needs to be divided by a large number 250 watts would do .5gh 250 watts does 10 th so 2x = 1 gh 20x = 10gh 200x = 100gh 2000x = 1 th 20000x = 10th so shrink the 1,533,333,233 by 20,000 that is the profitability number. the price number does go up so that 1,533,333,233 fits the diff
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What did you think can be the lowest price of bitcoin in 2021 from June to December. The price of bitcoin has been within $30,000 and $35,000 for long, if the price go beyond $35,000, it is not still passing $40,000. Now that the price is always very close to $30000, I am think it is possible for the price of bitcoin to go below $30000. Is it possible for the price of bitcoin to decrease beyond this level?
Who cares? I don't care about the price in 2021 or 2022 or 2023 or 2024 even 2025 but in 2026 the wife will be 70 I will be 69 and driving a 160 miles round trip to work on the mine maintenance will be pretty old. So It better be 200k by 2026. I would be looking to retire by then.
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But, that aside, it makes no sense for bitcoin price to grow 50% year while the difficulty to double within the same period and this continuously over a long period of time
It does make sense, it makes sense for the price to go down 50% and difficulty to double, the difficulty will only go up as it has done for a decade, ignoring the china ban and what happened in the past a few weeks, you can easily look at the difficulty chart and see that it only goes up, it does cool down once in a while but noting like the price does. on top of my head would be the 2017 peak, diff was 1.6 and price was 19.5k, a year later price was at 3.3k and difficulty was approaching 6T, that is -83% decline in price vs 275% gain for difficulty, you might think that was me cherry-picking periods, but if you spread those periods across the years, OP's projections won't sound as crazy as you may think. I do agree with the bolded part you mention, but it isn't a direct coloration, you can't assume that if price doesn't go up so won't the difficulty, this theory has been proven to be wrong over the past decade, we have seen difficulty go up right after the halving and after major declines in price this is because the mining profitability has not gotten to it's max. Think of miners as fishers who go to the lake to fish, you can't assume that because the number of fish is going down, less fishers will come to the lake, because for one you don't know how much fish will keep every fisher happy, and two, just because it costs you too much to get to the lake and you bought an expensive fishing rod so everyone is in the same boat, yes to you and to some other people if you can't bring home 10kg of fish a day you rather sit at home, to others, they will happy with a small fish once a week. The same goes for mining, many people have access to free power or super cheap power sources, those can just keep adding inefficient cheap gears to infinity, they will squeeze every bit of the profit and cause the difficulty to go up regardless of the price. You should also not forget the fact that not every miner is going to profit, many people mine at a loss because they don't know what they are doing, if every miner was a smart person who does the math, the difficulty wouldn't be going up as it does, but remember that many people paid 15k for an S19 pro, they will most likely lose money in the long run but they will keep the difficulty up, and once those go broke other losers will join along and cause the difficulty to go up, and this is where the confusion comes in, assuming that all miners are making profit leads you to the idea that " if profits aren't great, the difficulty will go down or at least not go up", but that isn't the case, sadly. I personally know a few folks who mine at a loss as I type, their thesis is that bitcoin will go up in price so they will just hodl the mined bitcoin and sell it when it hits 100k or 200k or whatever everyone's target is, I am sure we all know a person or two that does that. One thing to mention is that price decline or price not going up does slow down the difficulty growth, but it does not stop it, on the other hand, the larger the difficulty is the harder for it to go up, and this has been my theory forever, it's why in our past predictions I have always mentioned that doubling the hashrate by year-end was not possible even if the China ban didn't occur, sometimes prices go up way to fast, the difficulty can't keep up with it, it's a simple fact, but in the long run, the difficulty will go up and price won't go up. I should also mention that the increase in price will also slow down, "diminishing returns" is real, the evidence is all over the chart, those who think bitcoin will go above 100k and will stay above it forever or even for a few months will be very disappointed. Maybe maybe not. A lot depends on the un crack ability of wallets. And if 'lost' coins are in the millions. A simple rule to free lost coins is. 40 years of zero withdrawls from and address means coins go on forfeit list. At year 50 they go back to rewards. You have time to move them to a fresh address. If you do not by by. This keeps us at 21 mill max but allows a rewards refresh for miners. We are in year 12 but I do expect to hear this idea more and more and more as rewards shrink and stale addresses grow.
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I found email the answer is no. Let me try to explain what happens to me. The email account you sent to is 23 years old. It gets 250 emails a day on a slow day. If I go back just to July 10 it is 27 pages back. So you sent it on the 11th> I read it and did not want to answer it yet. I think the price for the gear is too high. I do not like the seller. I did a few deals with him they always have a glitch. They work out but always with an issue or a scare. https://t.me/minerexpertsales/1186I prefer working directly with gracezhou1993
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Ok, July 2019 Difficulty 8T, price 11k January 2021 Difficulty 18T, price 30k. Growth in difficulty 225%, growth in price 300% July 2019 Difficulty 8T, price 11k July 2021 Difficulty 15T, price 32k Growth in difficulty 90%, growth in price 300% January 2019 Difficulty 5T, price 3k January 2021 Difficulty 18T, price 30k. Growth in difficulty 350%, growth in price 1000%. So again, when did the difficulty growth outpaced the price 100% to 50%? try December 2017 price 19.9k diff 1.87 t October 2018 price 6.4k diff 7.45 t So the diff went way up and the price dropped way down.
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