I do see on double down you draw max cards on 3rd card dealt so that would explain the loss dealer 17 beats 12.
"double down" is when you get to double your initial bet and then get dealt exactly one more card with no option to get a 4th card. He got a Q, making a total of 12, which the dealer went on to beat. |
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For example, Kraken appears to be a pure scam.
I put 100 BTC into Kraken when it first opened, since it was advertised as being "less safe than Starfish, but more safe than Pirate" or words to that effect. Then I received the first bulletin, which said that almost all funds were invested in Pirate's scam. I complained, saying that I understood Kraken wasn't going to be used for Pirate deposits and got my 100 BTC returned immediately. I don't understand why he would return my deposit if it was intended as a scam from the outset. |
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Newbies have to make 5 posts in the newbie forum before they're allowed to post anywhere else. I expect that "sketchy" post was him just having to say something to get his 5 posts done. With 99.5% payouts, big jackpots, and lots of free credits to play with I'd say your site is anything but sketchy.  |
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txid:n block date game (lucky - result ) address stake payout profit cumulative profit
------------------ ------ ------------------ ------ ----- --------- ---------------------------------- ----- ------ ------ -----------------
1c00068ac1bd8c9b:0 215621 13:07:57 Jan-07-13 <32768 (11058 - WIN ) 168Nt1JoLtPo97fgmBtXvfjKLPrHDxtkuV 0.84 1.64 0.80 0.80
41391737873fe6ee:1 215621 13:07:57 Jan-07-13 <32768 (33266 - LOSE ) 12nTHxQMem9ciUyWhsG8raAdDPn3azv4hJ 1.65 0.01 -1.64 -0.84
63b8b8f26d07e54a:0 215621 13:07:57 Jan-07-13 <48000 (54152 - LOSE ) 1KyQrWyqFwbaPkdWR1sVTCm82JFyhVyiNy 0.17 0.00 -0.17 -1.01
e19b23ea4533bb97:1 215621 13:07:57 Jan-07-13 <32768 ( 8309 - WIN ) 1Cao4JaCAuRKTP8kHh5fM8fUAQhWAknZnz 0.01 0.02 0.01 -1.00
----- ----- -----
2.67 1.67 -1.00
Total of 4 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-07 01:10pm (up to block 215621)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 63376 | 0 (0.00000) | 62254 | 1122 | 544.75 | 0.01 | 86.85 | 544.73 | 0.004
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3170 | 0 (0.00000) | 2678 | 492 | 46.58 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 46.58 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5140 | 1 (0.00021) | 4721 | 418 | 68.88 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -91.07 | 232.204
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7731 | 2 (0.00027) | 7309 | 420 | 111.74 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 95.65 | 14.399
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9474 | 1 (0.00011) | 9066 | 407 | 260.19 | 4.47 | 18.65 | 255.71 | 1.719
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9501 | 3 (0.00033) | 9109 | 389 | 539.13 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 235.62 | 56.295
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12360 | 12 (0.00100) | 11950 | 398 | 810.43 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 654.74 | 19.210
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15333 | 28 (0.00188) | 14878 | 427 | 1866.33 | 1318.94 | 48.31 | 547.38 | 70.670
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17241 | 73 (0.00433) | 16793 | 375 | 2175.16 | 3209.55 | 13.16 | -1034.38 | 147.555
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25231 | 186 (0.00757) | 24377 | 668 | 4295.89 | 3955.64 | 9.94 | 340.24 | 92.080
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 75074 | 1155 (0.01547) | 73482 | 437 | 19274.98 | 17129.98 | 1.91 | 2145.00 | 88.872
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19746 | 461 (0.02377) | 18937 | 348 | 6390.09 | 6445.80 | 15.06 | -55.71 | 100.872
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 44358 | 1375 (0.03126) | 42607 | 376 | 20535.58 | 17740.06 | 9.31 | 2795.51 | 86.387
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22705 | 1031 (0.04624) | 21267 | 407 | 8376.04 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.36 | 112.612
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28456 | 1728 (0.06151) | 26367 | 361 | 6168.80 | 5678.93 | 31.25 | 489.87 | 92.059
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32580 | 3018 (0.09374) | 29178 | 384 | 13122.57 | 14678.81 | 7.11 | -1556.24 | 111.859
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 134305 | 16482 (0.12312) | 117391 | 432 | 52245.49 | 50721.53 | 100.18 | 1523.95 | 97.083
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 51020 | 9396 (0.18570) | 41201 | 423 | 83822.02 | 82643.17 | 3314.63 | 1178.85 | 98.594
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 158709 | 38562 (0.24367) | 119691 | 456 | 176505.11 | 176728.29 | 1617.02 | -223.18 | 100.126
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 132216 | 48518 (0.36830) | 83218 | 480 | 172904.21 | 169639.95 | 1012.86 | 3264.26 | 98.112
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 832674 | 406055 (0.48844) | 425281 | 1338 | 555397.89 | 546582.98 | 2923.90 | 8814.90 | 98.413
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 361580 | 180122 (0.49923) | 180676 | 782 | 392612.70 | 383789.60 | 5720.12 | 8823.09 | 97.753
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 241194 | 177126 (0.73591) | 63565 | 503 | 244566.71 | 239023.65 | 5454.76 | 5543.06 | 97.734
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43314 | 34109 (0.79469) | 8812 | 393 | 48671.59 | 47728.63 | 1187.12 | 942.96 | 98.063
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32718 | 27649 (0.85635) | 4638 | 431 | 45288.57 | 44661.42 | 400.12 | 627.15 | 98.615
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 39899 | 36162 (0.91561) | 3333 | 404 | 49793.38 | 49463.51 | 0.10 | 329.86 | 99.338
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11630 | 10797 (0.98101) | 209 | 624 | 21377.65 | 21029.06 | 239.42 | 348.58 | 98.369
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2351645 | 955588 | 1382650 | 13407 | 543211.69 | 531759.31 | 205.07 | 11452.37 | 97.892
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 79090 | 38464 | 40338 | 288 | 1384560.90 | 1360482.41 | 22123.70 | 24078.48 | 98.261
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2430735 | 994052 | 1422988 | 13695 | 1927772.59 | 1892241.73 | 22328.77 | 35530.85 | 98.157
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 35530.85250800 BTC (1.843%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1626.18877500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 33904.66373300 BTC (1.759%)
Pending Liabilities: -1.00139025 BTC
Final SD Profit: 33905.66512325 BTC (1.759%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 7959268 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4463481 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 3387.8 : SatoshiDice MB: 1834.3 (54.1%)   |
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Hmm I just tried to verify it myself and get bad signature too... Not sure what I'm doing wrong? That link has a bunch of HTML around the file. You need to 'download as text' using the link on that page ( http://paste.ubuntu.com/1503353/plain/) and that requires you to sign in to ubuntu's launchpad. If you do all that, the signature verifies just fine: gpg: Signature made Sun 06 Jan 2013 06:32:45 AM PST using DSA key ID F1B69921
gpg: Good signature from "MP Stock Exchange (Visit http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/) <office@polimedia.us>"
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I made a post in the newbie forum's satoshidice thread, but didn't get any replies. Maybe this is a better place to post it? The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.
That's interesting. I looked into this, and found a surprising result: If I bet on "lessthan 8000", and keep increasing my bet each time I lose such that my overall profit when I win is constant, and commit to making 19 bets if necessary, I am effectively placing a large bet on "lessthan 60012.5": >>> (1-(1-8000/65536.0)**19)*65536
60012.49314412828
That's a little easier to win than "lessthan 60000", which pays out 1.071x. Since I'm placing multiple bets, and getting a slightly easier-to-win bet than "lessthan 60000", you would expect my payout in the event of a win to be a little less than 1.071x, but it's actually a little higher: win on turn 1 : bet = 18.34444122, spent = 18.34494122, win = 146.76222078, lose = 0.09122220, back = 0.00000000, profit = 128.41727956 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn 2 : bet = 20.95186542, spent = 39.29730664, win = 167.62263649, lose = 0.10425932, back = 0.09122220, profit = 128.41655205 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn 3 : bet = 23.92990113, spent = 63.22770777, win = 191.44808952, lose = 0.11914950, back = 0.19548152, profit = 128.41586327 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn 4 : bet = 27.33122595, spent = 90.55943371, win = 218.66002143, lose = 0.13615612, back = 0.31463102, profit = 128.41521874 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn 5 : bet = 31.21600495, spent = 121.77593866, win = 249.73977624, lose = 0.15558002, back = 0.45078714, profit = 128.41462472 (52.155% to lose all)
win on turn 6 : bet = 35.65295485, spent = 157.42939351, win = 285.23711477, lose = 0.17776477, back = 0.60636716, profit = 128.41408842 (45.789% to lose all)
win on turn 7 : bet = 40.72055959, spent = 198.15045311, win = 325.77993920, lose = 0.20310279, back = 0.78413193, profit = 128.41361802 (40.199% to lose all)
win on turn 8 : bet = 46.50845857, spent = 244.65941167, win = 372.08539985, lose = 0.23204229, back = 0.98723472, profit = 128.41322290 (35.292% to lose all)
win on turn 9 : bet = 53.11903225, spent = 297.77894393, win = 424.97258068, lose = 0.26509516, back = 1.21927701, profit = 128.41291376 (30.984% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet = 60.66921318, spent = 358.44865710, win = 485.37698775, lose = 0.30284606, back = 1.48437217, profit = 128.41270282 (27.202% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet = 69.29255432, spent = 427.74171142, win = 554.36709722, lose = 0.34596277, back = 1.78721823, profit = 128.41260403 (23.881% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet = 79.14159147, spent = 506.88380289, win = 633.16325523, lose = 0.39520795, back = 2.13318100, profit = 128.41263334 (20.966% to lose all)
win on turn 13 : bet = 90.39054140, spent = 597.27484429, win = 723.15926428, lose = 0.45145270, back = 2.52838895, profit = 128.41280894 (18.407% to lose all)
win on turn 14 : bet = 103.23838355, spent = 700.51372784, win = 825.94703784, lose = 0.51569191, back = 2.97984165, profit = 128.41315165 (16.160% to lose all)
win on turn 15 : bet = 117.91237969, spent = 818.42660753, win = 943.34475917, lose = 0.58906189, back = 3.49553356, profit = 128.41368520 (14.187% to lose all)
win on turn 16 : bet = 134.67209391, spent = 953.09920144, win = 1077.42904272, lose = 0.67286046, back = 4.08459545, profit = 128.41443673 (12.455% to lose all)
win on turn 17 : bet = 153.81398395, spent = 1106.91368539, win = 1230.57166670, lose = 0.76856991, back = 4.75745591, profit = 128.41543722 (10.935% to lose all)
win on turn 18 : bet = 175.67664520, spent = 1282.59083059, win = 1405.48152682, lose = 0.87788322, back = 5.52602582, profit = 128.41672205 ( 9.600% to lose all)
win on turn 19 : bet = 200.64679995, spent = 1483.23813054, win = 1605.25255315, lose = 1.00273399, back = 6.40390904, profit = 128.41833165 ( 8.428% to lose all)
I'm risking 1483.23813054 BTC in total, to win 128.41 BTC. That's a payout of 1.0866x: >>> 128.41833165 / 1483.23813054 + 1
1.0865797129981056
How can it be that committing to 19 "lessthan 8000" bets gets me a bigger chance of winning than placing a single "lessthan 60000" bet, but at the same time gets me a higher payout multiplier, as well as a bigger effective "max bet" (it's not possible to bet 1483 BTC on "lessthan 60000" directly, but using Martingale betting I can effectively do just that). tldr: Using Martingale betting it seems to be possible to effectively bet far more than the maximum bet, increase your chances of winning, and increase the payout multipler too - Win/Win/Win. Is there a flaw in my reasoning here? |
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You can figure that out from this + thisThe wizard of odds page has the exact same number of possibilities per outcome as I calculated, so I guess my analysis was correct, and that the pot has to be around 23100 before the game is +EV. |
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I think what may have happened is you accidentally clicked "Double Down", got a non split hand, and the 200 chips loss is a result of the 3rd card queen of diamonds being dealt which pushed over 21.
I was thinking the same - looks just like he hit 'double down' instead of 'split'. But there's no way to bust when doubling-down on AA since A is 1 or 11. AAQ is worth 12, as shown on his screenshot. |
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Then about 3 or 4 19's I got beat on, and 5+ hands of 13,14,15. Fastest $40.00 I've ever spent in my life.
If this was a regular casino you might start to suspect they were cheating you. That's what's so cool about the provable fairness at bitZino - you can check each hand out and be sure that you just got unlucky. |
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Results: 2013-Jan-06 02:46pm (up to block 215473)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 62395 | 0 (0.00000) | 61284 | 1111 | 533.84 | 0.01 | 85.94 | 533.82 | 0.004
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3164 | 0 (0.00000) | 2672 | 492 | 46.38 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 46.38 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5133 | 1 (0.00021) | 4714 | 418 | 68.27 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -91.68 | 234.279
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7717 | 2 (0.00027) | 7295 | 420 | 111.59 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 95.50 | 14.419
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9426 | 1 (0.00011) | 9018 | 407 | 249.67 | 4.43 | 18.65 | 245.23 | 1.778
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9498 | 3 (0.00033) | 9106 | 389 | 539.06 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 235.55 | 56.302
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12344 | 12 (0.00100) | 11934 | 398 | 810.09 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 654.40 | 19.218
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15277 | 28 (0.00189) | 14822 | 427 | 1864.10 | 1318.93 | 48.31 | 545.16 | 70.755
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17229 | 73 (0.00433) | 16781 | 375 | 2173.31 | 3209.54 | 13.16 | -1036.23 | 147.680
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25209 | 186 (0.00758) | 24355 | 668 | 4295.54 | 3955.64 | 9.94 | 339.89 | 92.087
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 74566 | 1147 (0.01547) | 72982 | 437 | 19250.01 | 17119.07 | 1.91 | 2130.94 | 88.930
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19741 | 461 (0.02377) | 18932 | 348 | 6389.90 | 6445.80 | 15.06 | -55.90 | 100.875
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 44015 | 1365 (0.03128) | 42274 | 376 | 20495.34 | 17696.45 | 9.31 | 2798.88 | 86.344
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22695 | 1031 (0.04626) | 21257 | 407 | 8375.60 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.79 | 112.618
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28432 | 1728 (0.06156) | 26343 | 361 | 6160.80 | 5678.90 | 31.25 | 481.89 | 92.178
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32531 | 3016 (0.09382) | 29131 | 384 | 13119.58 | 14677.64 | 7.11 | -1558.05 | 111.876
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 134019 | 16442 (0.12308) | 117145 | 432 | 52171.42 | 50664.06 | 100.18 | 1507.36 | 97.111
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 50645 | 9318 (0.18554) | 40904 | 423 | 83689.14 | 82450.96 | 3314.63 | 1238.17 | 98.521
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 157849 | 38334 (0.24356) | 119059 | 456 | 176226.72 | 176449.36 | 1617.02 | -222.63 | 100.126
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 131447 | 48233 (0.36828) | 82734 | 480 | 172535.80 | 169292.01 | 1012.86 | 3243.78 | 98.120
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 830117 | 404824 (0.48846) | 423955 | 1338 | 554276.92 | 545583.85 | 2923.90 | 8693.07 | 98.432
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 359541 | 179084 (0.49918) | 179675 | 782 | 391799.92 | 382927.35 | 5720.12 | 8872.56 | 97.735
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 240445 | 176584 (0.73594) | 63358 | 503 | 244200.16 | 238667.14 | 5454.76 | 5533.01 | 97.734
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43198 | 34023 (0.79484) | 8782 | 393 | 48633.26 | 47687.04 | 1187.12 | 946.22 | 98.054
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32565 | 27527 (0.85663) | 4607 | 431 | 44690.71 | 44055.50 | 400.12 | 635.20 | 98.579
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 39569 | 35851 (0.91538) | 3314 | 404 | 49736.99 | 49411.33 | 0.10 | 325.65 | 99.345
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11601 | 10769 (0.98105) | 208 | 624 | 21356.39 | 21007.76 | 239.42 | 348.63 | 98.368
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2341410 | 951657 | 1376357 | 13396 | 540958.80 | 529573.42 | 204.16 | 11385.38 | 97.895
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 78958 | 38386 | 40284 | 288 | 1382841.85 | 1358797.13 | 22123.70 | 24044.71 | 98.261
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2420368 | 990043 | 1416641 | 13684 | 1923800.66 | 1888370.55 | 22327.86 | 35430.10 | 98.158
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 35430.10370197 BTC (1.842%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1615.81567500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 33814.28802697 BTC (1.758%)
Pending Liabilities: 0.63098455 BTC
Final SD Profit: 33813.65704242 BTC (1.758%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 7922239 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4444261 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 3372.1 : SatoshiDice MB: 1826.4 (54.2%)   |
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The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.
That's interesting. I looked into this, and found a surprising result: If I bet on "lessthan 8000", and keep increasing my bet each time I lose such that my overall profit when I win is constant, and commit to making 19 bets if necessary, I am effectively placing a large bet on "lessthan 60012.5": >>> (1-(1-8000/65536.0)**19)*65536
60012.49314412828
That's a little easier to win than "lessthan 60000", which pays out 1.071x. Since I'm placing multiple bets, and getting a slightly easier-to-win bet than "lessthan 60000", you would expect my payout in the event of a win to be a little less than 1.071x, but it's actually a little higher: win on turn 1 : bet = 18.34444122, spent = 18.34494122, win = 146.76222078, lose = 0.09122220, back = 0.00000000, profit = 128.41727956 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn 2 : bet = 20.95186542, spent = 39.29730664, win = 167.62263649, lose = 0.10425932, back = 0.09122220, profit = 128.41655205 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn 3 : bet = 23.92990113, spent = 63.22770777, win = 191.44808952, lose = 0.11914950, back = 0.19548152, profit = 128.41586327 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn 4 : bet = 27.33122595, spent = 90.55943371, win = 218.66002143, lose = 0.13615612, back = 0.31463102, profit = 128.41521874 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn 5 : bet = 31.21600495, spent = 121.77593866, win = 249.73977624, lose = 0.15558002, back = 0.45078714, profit = 128.41462472 (52.155% to lose all)
win on turn 6 : bet = 35.65295485, spent = 157.42939351, win = 285.23711477, lose = 0.17776477, back = 0.60636716, profit = 128.41408842 (45.789% to lose all)
win on turn 7 : bet = 40.72055959, spent = 198.15045311, win = 325.77993920, lose = 0.20310279, back = 0.78413193, profit = 128.41361802 (40.199% to lose all)
win on turn 8 : bet = 46.50845857, spent = 244.65941167, win = 372.08539985, lose = 0.23204229, back = 0.98723472, profit = 128.41322290 (35.292% to lose all)
win on turn 9 : bet = 53.11903225, spent = 297.77894393, win = 424.97258068, lose = 0.26509516, back = 1.21927701, profit = 128.41291376 (30.984% to lose all)
win on turn 10 : bet = 60.66921318, spent = 358.44865710, win = 485.37698775, lose = 0.30284606, back = 1.48437217, profit = 128.41270282 (27.202% to lose all)
win on turn 11 : bet = 69.29255432, spent = 427.74171142, win = 554.36709722, lose = 0.34596277, back = 1.78721823, profit = 128.41260403 (23.881% to lose all)
win on turn 12 : bet = 79.14159147, spent = 506.88380289, win = 633.16325523, lose = 0.39520795, back = 2.13318100, profit = 128.41263334 (20.966% to lose all)
win on turn 13 : bet = 90.39054140, spent = 597.27484429, win = 723.15926428, lose = 0.45145270, back = 2.52838895, profit = 128.41280894 (18.407% to lose all)
win on turn 14 : bet = 103.23838355, spent = 700.51372784, win = 825.94703784, lose = 0.51569191, back = 2.97984165, profit = 128.41315165 (16.160% to lose all)
win on turn 15 : bet = 117.91237969, spent = 818.42660753, win = 943.34475917, lose = 0.58906189, back = 3.49553356, profit = 128.41368520 (14.187% to lose all)
win on turn 16 : bet = 134.67209391, spent = 953.09920144, win = 1077.42904272, lose = 0.67286046, back = 4.08459545, profit = 128.41443673 (12.455% to lose all)
win on turn 17 : bet = 153.81398395, spent = 1106.91368539, win = 1230.57166670, lose = 0.76856991, back = 4.75745591, profit = 128.41543722 (10.935% to lose all)
win on turn 18 : bet = 175.67664520, spent = 1282.59083059, win = 1405.48152682, lose = 0.87788322, back = 5.52602582, profit = 128.41672205 ( 9.600% to lose all)
win on turn 19 : bet = 200.64679995, spent = 1483.23813054, win = 1605.25255315, lose = 1.00273399, back = 6.40390904, profit = 128.41833165 ( 8.428% to lose all)
I'm risking 1483.23813054 BTC in total, to win 128.41 BTC. That's a payout of 1.0866x: >>> 128.41833165 / 1483.23813054 + 1
1.0865797129981056
How can it be that committing to 19 "lessthan 8000" bets gets me a bigger chance of winning than placing a single "lessthan 60000" bet, but at the same time gets me a higher payout multiplier, as well as a bigger effective "max bet" (it's not possible to bet 1483 BTC on "lessthan 60000" directly, but using Martingale betting I can effectively do just that). tldr: Using Martingale betting it seems to be possible to effectively bet far more than the maximum bet, increase your chances of winning, and increase the payout multipler too - Win/Win/Win. Is there a flaw in my reasoning here? |
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Weird! I just checked out the site and all 3 royal flush winners are there. When did you take that screenshot? We had some minor bug that wasn't getting all the correct data for leaderboards but we fixed that one yesterday. Take another look and see if they're there for you.
I took it at 01:10:24 PM Pacific time on 5th Jan, shortly before posting it. The top of the screen was saying there were 3 royal flushes. I see all 3 now too. Maybe it was a caching issue. How are people setting their names on your site? I'm always known as an ugly string of hex characters. Edit: never mind; I just noticed this in the on-site chat window: d6808edd64: how do you customize a handle if you want to?
Admin2: click the portrait icon below the chat box
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quick question: those of you posting the "number of bets, winnings" stuff, where are you finding that? i just pulled my transaction history for my payout address and i THINK i'm up about 1 btc, but i'd like to see that somewhere if it's available.
I think that was from the official satoshidice client program "SatoshiRoller" that they released a while back. |
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The top of the screen says there have been 3 royal flushes, but the "big wins" shows only 2. Does this mean that the winner of the other royal flush tried to double it and lost?  |
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Results: 2013-Jan-05 10:43am (up to block 215298)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 62099 | 0 (0.00000) | 60993 | 1106 | 530.40 | 0.01 | 85.47 | 530.38 | 0.004
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3142 | 0 (0.00000) | 2650 | 492 | 46.04 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 46.03 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5116 | 1 (0.00021) | 4697 | 418 | 67.91 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -92.04 | 235.538
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7708 | 2 (0.00027) | 7286 | 420 | 111.41 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 95.32 | 14.442
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9324 | 1 (0.00011) | 8916 | 407 | 231.78 | 4.39 | 18.65 | 227.39 | 1.897
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9412 | 3 (0.00033) | 9020 | 389 | 534.40 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 230.89 | 56.793
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12257 | 12 (0.00101) | 11847 | 398 | 806.52 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 650.83 | 19.303
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15259 | 28 (0.00189) | 14804 | 427 | 1862.88 | 1318.93 | 48.31 | 543.95 | 70.801
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 16962 | 71 (0.00428) | 16516 | 375 | 2017.59 | 2909.06 | 13.16 | -891.47 | 144.185
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25092 | 184 (0.00753) | 24240 | 668 | 4284.37 | 3941.88 | 9.94 | 342.48 | 92.006
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 73807 | 1134 (0.01546) | 72236 | 437 | 19195.57 | 16982.65 | 1.91 | 2212.91 | 88.472
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19718 | 461 (0.02380) | 18909 | 348 | 6388.43 | 6445.80 | 15.06 | -57.37 | 100.898
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 43580 | 1344 (0.03111) | 41860 | 376 | 20452.79 | 17621.95 | 9.31 | 2830.84 | 86.159
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22672 | 1030 (0.04626) | 21235 | 407 | 8364.65 | 9417.42 | 25.08 | -1052.77 | 112.586
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28416 | 1727 (0.06156) | 26328 | 361 | 6157.32 | 5675.69 | 31.25 | 481.62 | 92.178
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32451 | 3011 (0.09390) | 29056 | 384 | 13070.09 | 14626.68 | 7.11 | -1556.59 | 111.910
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 133429 | 16378 (0.12315) | 116619 | 432 | 52060.12 | 50569.22 | 100.18 | 1490.90 | 97.136
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 50094 | 9208 (0.18538) | 40463 | 423 | 83649.94 | 82407.32 | 3314.63 | 1242.61 | 98.515
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 157392 | 38223 (0.24356) | 118713 | 456 | 176118.27 | 176325.79 | 1617.02 | -207.51 | 100.118
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 129814 | 47635 (0.36831) | 81699 | 480 | 172184.82 | 168905.35 | 1012.86 | 3279.46 | 98.095
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 827324 | 403444 (0.48844) | 422542 | 1338 | 552537.34 | 543825.80 | 2923.90 | 8711.53 | 98.423
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 357837 | 178231 (0.49917) | 178824 | 782 | 390104.68 | 380959.60 | 5720.12 | 9145.07 | 97.656
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 239439 | 175848 (0.73596) | 63088 | 503 | 243748.60 | 238226.33 | 5454.76 | 5522.26 | 97.734
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43085 | 33932 (0.79481) | 8760 | 393 | 48616.03 | 47669.06 | 1187.12 | 946.97 | 98.052
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32379 | 27372 (0.85677) | 4576 | 431 | 44640.83 | 44003.11 | 400.12 | 637.71 | 98.571
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 39072 | 35407 (0.91567) | 3261 | 404 | 48768.82 | 48572.87 | 0.10 | 195.94 | 99.598
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11576 | 10744 (0.98101) | 208 | 624 | 21305.44 | 20956.59 | 239.42 | 348.84 | 98.363
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2329723 | 947169 | 1369163 | 13391 | 538204.11 | 526533.86 | 203.69 | 11670.25 | 97.832
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 78733 | 38262 | 40183 | 288 | 1379653.04 | 1355467.00 | 22123.70 | 24186.04 | 98.247
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2408456 | 985431 | 1409346 | 13679 | 1917857.16 | 1882000.87 | 22327.39 | 35856.29 | 98.130
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 35856.29460173 BTC (1.870%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1603.88207500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 34252.41252673 BTC (1.786%)
Pending Liabilities: -3.88524394 BTC
Final SD Profit: 34256.29777067 BTC (1.786%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 7881500 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4422350 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 3355.2 : SatoshiDice MB: 1817.4 (54.2%)   |
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I hope the whales are satisfied with this new setup. Maybe we can get some higher max bets then, up to 1000BTC for less than 64000, and 500 for less than 32000? We know there should be sufficient house capital to handle it now.
At 2013-01-03 00:00 GMT (In about an hour) the logic for calculating the bet hash which was hmac512(secret, bet_transaction_id) will be changed to hmac512(secret, bet_transaction_id + ":" + bet_output_index)
The change happened on the 3rd. The betting has really dropped off since then. I guess time will tell whether the change has scared the whale off or not. It's not like he was constantly betting before the change. Here's a chart showing the bet volume over the last couple of months. The whale activity is around the same time each week, and never around the weekends. The labels on the X axis are Saturdays:  |
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I don't know if you're aware of it, but both luckco.in and bitcoinvideopoker.com are currently offering video poker games with a progressive max-bet royal flush jackpot, whereas your video poker has no progressive pot. Both sites currently only allow a maximum bet of 0.005 BTC per hand, so are catering to a different market than your game I guess, but I thought I should point it out in case you weren't aware of it. Thanks for the comp. |
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I can conceivably see us unlocking 1BTC games, but that is much further down the road:)
Note that the competition is already offering 2 BTC games... No progressive pot there though. |
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I expect he'll work it out eventually...
He worked it out! |
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It looks to me like the pot needs to be around 23100 chips before it's +EV to play.
I thought I remembered you telling us that the red-white-blue slot was +EV with the current jackpot size, but can't find it anywhere now. I guess it must have been in the in-game chat. Either that or I imagined it. |
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