little vid of me firing on bitcoin video poker with a blockchain wallet on multiple devices to demonstrate how awesome this experience is with this site and the blockchain.info mobile wallet http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AC-M3kMRkNAYou should be careful not to show the URL at the top of the page in any videos or screenshots. Anyone can type in the address and withdraw the balance of your account. I hope you withdrew the balance before posting the video. Your account was empty when I looked. |
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But, you can bet more than 2 BTC if the bet is split between 2 numbers. E.g. you can bet up to 4 BTC on the 1,2 split. The maximum is 2 BTC stake on an individual number.
Here's how you explained it when I asked a while ago. It looks like the max bet on red has doubled twice since you wrote this though: The overall max is always 10 BTC. This means you can bet 10 BTC on red itself, as long as you have no other wagers. If instead you bet 1 BTC on anything else, then you can bet up to 9 BTC on red.
For individual numbers, the maximum you can bet is more complicated. Basically, the maximum stake you can have in any single number is 1 BTC. So, you can bet up to 2 BTC on the 1,2 Split, and up to 4 BTC on the 1,2,4,5 Corner. This calculation can get somewhat complicated at times: for example, if you have a 0.1 BTC wager on 1 Straight, then you can only wager up to 1.8 BTC on the 1,2 Split - because any more would give you too much stake in the 1. Note though, that we don't count "outer wagers" toward individual numbers in this formula. This means you can wager 1 BTC on Odd, and still wager up to a full 1 BTC on the 1 (even though you technically already have 1/18th BTC stake on the 1).
Also, I just tried looking at the max bets in blackjack but was shown this error page:  |
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I just clicked the 'kitty' game and saw 'too late' as my time, even though I thought I clicked in time. Then I saw the chat. It told me (three times) that I won: [16:41] sprinkles: !!! QUIZ FAIL !!! no one guessed fortran lets try again in 10 min-ish?
[16:41] sprinkles: welcome MajorCal45... good luck
[16:41] sprinkles: welcome to the game DrLex67!
[16:41] sprinkles: welcome to the game DrLex67!
[16:41] sprinkles: welcome to the game DrLex67!
[16:47] sprinkles: everyone say hi to DrLex67!
[16:47] sprinkles: everyone say hi to DrLex67!
[16:47] sprinkles: everyone say hi to DrLex67!
[16:49] sprinkles: competition time look up to win
[16:49] sprinkles: competition time look up to win
[16:49] sprinkles: competition time look up to win
[16:49] sprinkles: MajorCal45 clicks it at 12
[16:49] sprinkles: MajorCal45 clicks it at 12
[16:49] sprinkles: MajorCal45 clicks it at 12
[16:49] sprinkles: woo! MajorCal45 gets 10 CREDITS from Kitty with the time 12
[16:49] sprinkles: woo! MajorCal45 gets 10 CREDITS from Kitty with the time 12
[16:49] sprinkles: woo! MajorCal45 gets 10 CREDITS from Kitty with the time 12
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I tried working out the payout of the red-white-blue slot. I was curious about whether the large (16k) jackpot made it +EV to play or not. According to my calculations it doesn't. It looks to me like the pot needs to be around 23100 chips before it's +EV to play. Is that right? The code I wrote to calculate the payout is at http://pastie.org/5624193 but I'm not sure it's right. It calculates the payout as 98.09% for the standard jackpot of 8100, which is pretty close to what has been written in this thread above:
1 ( 0.0004%) 8100 0.0103 red 7, wht 7, blu 7
3 ( 0.0011%) 4050 0.0154 red 7, red 7, red 7
42 ( 0.0160%) 675 0.0360 wht 7, wht 7, wht 7
42 ( 0.0160%) 525 0.0280 blu 7, blu 7, blu 7
1199 ( 0.4574%) 300 0.4574 any 7, any 7, any 7
180 ( 0.0687%) 165 0.0378 1 bar, 2 bar, 3 bar
210 ( 0.0801%) 120 0.0320 3 bar, 3 bar, 3 bar
378 ( 0.1442%) 90 0.0433 2 bar, 2 bar, 2 bar
432 ( 0.1648%) 30 0.0165 1 bar, 1 bar, 1 bar
113 ( 0.0431%) 75 0.0108 red, white, blue
7977 ( 3.0430%) 15 0.1521 any 3 bars
2127 ( 0.8114%) 6 0.0162 any 3 same colour
32768 (12.5000%) 3 0.1250 3 blanks
216672 (82.6538%) 0 0.0000 lose
------ ------
262144 (17.3462% win) 0.9809 payout per 1 chip
As you can see, each 8k in the pot adds about 1% to the payout, so an extra 16k is needed to bring the payout up to 100%, making a total pot of around 24k. |
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Oh, and dooglus, thanks for keeping up the analysis. It's especially useful to have those current month charts  You're welcome. Today's report is a little later than usual, but here it is: Total of 4 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-04 04:21pm (up to block 215196)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 61688 | 0 (0.00000) | 60582 | 1106 | 521.76 | 0.01 | 85.47 | 521.74 | 0.004
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3129 | 0 (0.00000) | 2637 | 492 | 45.91 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 45.90 | 0.010
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5113 | 1 (0.00021) | 4694 | 418 | 67.88 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -92.07 | 235.642
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7706 | 2 (0.00027) | 7284 | 420 | 111.39 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 95.30 | 14.445
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9321 | 1 (0.00011) | 8913 | 407 | 231.62 | 4.39 | 18.65 | 227.23 | 1.898
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9393 | 3 (0.00033) | 9001 | 389 | 534.00 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 230.49 | 56.836
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12249 | 12 (0.00101) | 11839 | 398 | 805.35 | 155.67 | 55.70 | 649.67 | 19.330
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15249 | 28 (0.00189) | 14794 | 427 | 1862.30 | 1318.93 | 48.31 | 543.36 | 70.823
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 16951 | 71 (0.00428) | 16505 | 375 | 2017.32 | 2909.06 | 13.16 | -891.74 | 144.205
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25079 | 183 (0.00750) | 24228 | 668 | 4283.68 | 3929.39 | 9.94 | 354.29 | 91.729
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 73573 | 1132 (0.01548) | 72004 | 437 | 19187.01 | 16975.60 | 1.91 | 2211.41 | 88.474
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19700 | 461 (0.02382) | 18891 | 348 | 6386.73 | 6445.79 | 15.06 | -59.06 | 100.925
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 43386 | 1341 (0.03118) | 41669 | 376 | 20449.30 | 17618.11 | 9.31 | 2831.19 | 86.155
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22660 | 1030 (0.04629) | 21223 | 407 | 8364.31 | 9417.42 | 25.08 | -1053.11 | 112.591
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28397 | 1725 (0.06153) | 26311 | 361 | 6155.78 | 5670.90 | 31.25 | 484.88 | 92.123
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32391 | 3008 (0.09398) | 28999 | 384 | 13062.40 | 14621.86 | 7.11 | -1559.46 | 111.939
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 133225 | 16351 (0.12313) | 116443 | 431 | 52047.40 | 50562.91 | 100.18 | 1484.48 | 97.148
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 49859 | 9169 (0.18547) | 40267 | 423 | 83630.16 | 82390.71 | 3314.63 | 1239.44 | 98.518
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 156905 | 38117 (0.24364) | 118332 | 456 | 176065.51 | 176285.68 | 1617.02 | -220.17 | 100.125
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 129086 | 47361 (0.36826) | 81246 | 479 | 172067.32 | 168793.04 | 1012.85 | 3274.27 | 98.097
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 824185 | 401957 (0.48850) | 420890 | 1338 | 549893.39 | 541052.14 | 2923.90 | 8841.25 | 98.392
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 356741 | 177702 (0.49922) | 178257 | 782 | 389166.79 | 380144.06 | 5720.12 | 9022.73 | 97.682
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 239032 | 175545 (0.73595) | 62984 | 503 | 243277.31 | 237788.01 | 5454.76 | 5489.30 | 97.744
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 42929 | 33809 (0.79483) | 8727 | 393 | 48583.24 | 47635.97 | 1187.12 | 947.27 | 98.050
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32303 | 27307 (0.85677) | 4565 | 431 | 44547.03 | 43898.65 | 400.12 | 648.38 | 98.544
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 38841 | 35197 (0.91568) | 3241 | 403 | 48643.47 | 48444.10 | 0.09 | 199.36 | 99.590
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11560 | 10728 (0.98098) | 208 | 624 | 21300.30 | 20951.43 | 239.42 | 348.86 | 98.362
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2322145 | 944100 | 1364657 | 13388 | 537213.00 | 525605.43 | 203.68 | 11607.56 | 97.839
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 78506 | 38141 | 40077 | 288 | 1376095.78 | 1351888.06 | 22123.70 | 24207.71 | 98.241
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2400651 | 982241 | 1404734 | 13676 | 1913308.78 | 1877493.50 | 22327.38 | 35815.27 | 98.128
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 35815.27597646 BTC (1.872%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1596.06607500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 34219.20990146 BTC (1.788%)
Pending Liabilities: -1.96051998 BTC
Final SD Profit: 34221.17042144 BTC (1.789%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 7852791 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4407687 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 3343.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 1811.4 (54.2%)   |
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why are you guys doxing him? who cares. Hopefully today will be a wake up call for dank.
No-one's doxxed him [...] My name is Sean Martin, from Raleigh, NC.
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You're a bit late I'm afraid - the show's already over.
I think Dank's probably just having a hard time getting online from DankFest. Apparently it was much more successful that he anticipated and consequently the cellphone coverage he put in place was woefully inadequate. |
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Dooglus, he has to follow the forum rules to receive the bonus.
Fair enough. I think he's having trouble understanding how to escape newbie jail: (09:40:41 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: hello (09:40:44 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: can i help you (09:40:51 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: can you help me ? (09:41:22 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ has buzzed you! (09:42:06 PM) Chris: hi (09:42:09 PM) Chris: what's up? (09:42:22 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: Dooglus, he has to follow the forum rules to receive the bonus. (09:42:23 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122073.180(09:42:28 PM) Chris: aah (09:42:54 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: the next ? (09:43:01 PM) Chris: it means you need to post yourself, not me (09:43:16 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: ?? (09:43:19 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: i don't know (09:43:25 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: what they need ? (09:43:30 PM) Chris: you have to post on their thread (09:43:33 PM) Chris: I can't post for you (09:43:36 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: What do they need? (09:43:39 PM) Chris: stop being a newbie there (09:43:52 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: i can't post  (09:44:01 PM) Chris: once you have 5 posts and 4 hours you can (09:44:16 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: @@ (09:44:21 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: i can't post (09:44:23 PM) Chris: what's @@? (09:44:23 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: @@ (09:44:27 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: what 5 post ?@@ (09:44:34 PM) Chris: any 5 posts on the newbie forum (09:44:41 PM) Quy Ẩn Giang Hồ: yes (09:45:28 PM) Chris: go to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=39.0(09:45:32 PM) Chris: you can post there I expect he'll work it out eventually... |
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I actually had this same thought about this back when we were implementing it. I'll bring the topic up again with the other programmer -- do you think that adding the 440 credits is important?
To be honest when I first did the math it ended up in a jackpot of 8000 credits, not 440. Then spotted my mistake and fixed the maths. I'm thinking the 440 credits isn't enough to make a difference, no. You're right! This looks like a bug, but it's my fault. I was already following that simple strategy you recommended and I considered A-2-3-4 to be an outside straight draw (because of the 5). Obviously, that's silly now that I think about it, since odds of drawing that 5 is equal to drawing a 3 in a A-2-4-5 inside draw. I'll fix this and put up a patch ASAP.
J-Q-K-A is similarly not an outside straight draw (just in case...) |
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I was just approached by a stranger on Yahoo IM. They've signed up but aren't able to post on this thread on account of being a newbie: (07:31:54 PM) Chris: go to www.LuckyBitcoinCasino.com and sign up (07:32:01 PM) Chris: then tell me your username there (07:32:08 PM) only_love15042002: yes i can sign up (07:32:17 PM) only_love15042002: I signed up this morning (07:32:24 PM) Chris: what username? (07:33:15 PM) only_love15042002: here (07:33:31 PM) Chris: on www.LuckyBitcoinCasino.com(07:33:32 PM) only_love15042002: they sent mail to me (07:33:45 PM) only_love15042002: Your username: only_love15042002@yahoo.com.vn(07:33:48 PM) only_love15042002: @@ (07:33:58 PM) Chris: who sent you that? (07:34:06 PM) only_love15042002: Lucky Bitcoin Casino Support (07:34:14 PM) only_love15042002: flooraccount@gmail.com(07:34:14 PM) Chris: oh, ok Could you give them their bonus please? And it's been weeks since I received my 8th signup bonus from you guys...  Thanks. Edit: (07:35:27 PM) only_love15042002: can you help me ? (07:36:58 PM) Chris: I posted in the thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122073.msg1433559#msg1433559(07:37:09 PM) Chris: what is your bitcoin address? (07:37:20 PM) Chris: I forgot - you're meant to tell them that too (07:37:26 PM) only_love15042002: ^^! (07:37:46 PM) only_love15042002: thank you very much (07:37:51 PM) Chris: you're welcome (07:38:00 PM) Chris: but they will need me to tell them what address to send the signup bonus to (07:38:14 PM) only_love15042002: 1KAuN88V4TnnPM7DLgMVfyuUcjpF7Mmn29(07:38:20 PM) only_love15042002: that is my bitcoin address (07:38:23 PM) Chris: ok (07:38:27 PM) only_love15042002: ^^! (07:38:28 PM) only_love15042002: tks |
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The site was bought out by Andrew Bitcoiner and seems to have stopped paying out. I think there was an issue where the site was letting you double-down (and possibly split, as well?) for free, which lead to people being able to make vast profits. There are lots of posts about it in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=39591 |
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What's going on here? I was using the auto play feature, got dealt Ah 3d Tc 4h 2d and it auto-held and played the off-suit A234. That's never right is it? Not even using a very basic strategy. Here's a screenshot, along with the expectation of holding various cards, according to http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/hand-analyzer/ This was GameID: e293696f9774d0f61b477111b2f13f8d. Here's a simple strategy: http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/jacks-or-better/9-6/simple/It suggests holding 4 to an outside straight in preference to just holding a high card, but A234 isn't an outside straight draw. I don't know if this is a bug, or if you're deliberately holding the wrong cards sometimes, but either way I think it should be fixed. |
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I fixed the post numbers and added the new players:
ID NICK RECEIVED BY POST_ID_AND_COMMENTS
1 Garr255 189JHV6KPzvnPmjYCGPbvMMmZUWppere7h #2
2 the joint 17EVRSvdPJGhk7uKHCpY9ghnWnx7j3pPAs #3
3 sadpandatech 13YmfB6TeLzyCdnwsVZ5MdYVCLnfm5eNGF #4
4 nimda 1KiZGitw2zEr4uPzZsT7dh7F6e5yoKGvE7 #5
5 Al the Alpaca 1EWRJ5BeibZxMguujPLzqM8WWiHpFJtLLx #6
6 pirateat40 1CR5BadHQt8wd4t98mE4rw9hUfSGQ4ZGDg #19
7 rjk 17qypELtTKqr716m937wLWbapnFG6i4fyZ #20
8 NothinG 1BjMLLGrwYk3hrcnSqEUEeGchkx9tiykfY #21
9 PatrickHarnett 1KwECAhJGr8BPGgn6mezf5Z3jT7vG1HaAZ #27
10 pekv2 12NcNYb2oEh6ANo95AakEjPqQdgbcxh4m9 #32
11 unclemantis 12kM9BocNb5zSG7RMKp9wPxopK5NpayrMZ #33
12 mb300sd 1HVmv5EtQZtcsFfXe6Crz972BrB1MwsNCM #38
13 rudrigorc2 1MSPwixhqiwMLXxw3WXtNjg2nst6qVWhCX #43
14 Brunic 16Hz2xA4NmAp4CU3Mr9aJy8H9D5XqXupHG #48
15 fatigue 1Fj4QZbavJeKfagjDqUPFqQ4iJ4bHqFAMG #51
16 Phraust 15UJrPbxd6ULPJaxASUoWUp6xc473T7mww #87
17 adamstgBit 15nutdfqcS38hXdZoL7LNz5wBt8Aq4wCUT #88
18 bluefirecorp 1PsQ8qFp6ZY94gXvFLP4cqcmoLQSDCqLJc #89
19 Drakahn 1C1UMHsdPxgsWGWBhdaTC47kibJjFgWnhb #90
20 Gladamas 1FVySmZNZ6LUvz1mKkt9zgRWjBzvkM4Roh #91
21 phantitox 1GtGFJskG47Q6Q1NFsfMLWfNV9ivabbyab #92
22 John (johnthedong) 1Cm2ymVqiHA42jv31rtyze684oWTDkreza #97 instawallet addy, DON't REUSE
23 Keefe 1BZy1xxwcxQyRZErcYUFke72TSU7cV5Ptf #106
24 Otoh 1G5apmPvo2iTtmkNWAHTCET7Y842Ufijs8 #109
25 [Tycho] 1VayNert3x1KzbpzMGt2qdqrAThiRovi8 #74
26 Dalkore 12SSYCcvaHadm8Myxb3mUTzyv96VNhyzeZ #66
27 payb.tc 14no5MUE4ur2gyyEE3BHpHhV82gKm8NLbH #132
28 damnek 17xbiU6EWdaf74rmwxPv9AQZc1MeKMWh5n #114
29 Tril 1Xgeo7EQgrk22paxmKVrhNVSmauczL6EE #116
30 Scott J 18UVSvCAb6QGjPSdiXxveeu56ujmu3kTt4 #117
31 honest bob 14x3n2ntSAGN4gGvGoLhi6NbUuuoWwvfdL #139
32 giszmo 1KLYFWyv5aeci2PwJQs9aTRN1JRzDDL96o #142
33 arklan 1F4j4Lha8BjL4wxwFVbGaQwMJ4Kd1brfXb #144
34 dooglus 1BooBz2AEwUd6JepB7NhNsnAe58Q6obpcu #157
35 riX 155gBnpiBQcpnP6coTX6V7znSK3G73uNjK #158
36 RyNinDaCleM 1Bgi9fX1TD9cnuzBvWGLfm7D7sNVEq96UU #173
37 hongus 1APyqdvGMvjfEMPKCo3oHSJ4CkJuXhTCy1 #238
38 flatfly 1337sfeChyyzZLzdHLewXzcaAaJSNTM893 #243
39 URSAY 1MzjNVW8z5SuMsGPgQfWZoyKaxsc1VkLXh #248
40 nckrazze 111mamKazi1ofZ854rKTcAxhTVuGDPhhL #257
41 TYDIRocks 1PowhrA8kxnn9UBj2ESg7GQzkwTpcg44zm #272
42 Gyrsur 1FSfmWAMUsuBzUTrXgKaTE9TsSjJw1knvw #274
43 OneEyed 1MJS3FuUrWmyfvvRnm5gUYvpuFkYDzxCP4 #277
44 Namworld 14x36ktcNuf3CNrkVH1XY7vXwGHb9mCZwF #281
45 augustocroppo 161gEQewAVp6CFnoY5198vHchrbWLQytG7 #284
46 CornedBeefHash 1FvXoLCFmmRTAHJv5xMZLoMoeKBJHMCLnY #291
47 theboss 1EQfkKVZndiesJcwThRe5AAq15dZ56mZku #293
48 Maidak 14bsB5cugXFYaVZWsuoEYABd9gvkowv42a #296
49 scintill 1jCU7tevhLNaY3nDL4tinNu8NuSzDtwKh #299
50 chrisrico 1Mn7mjk69WJY85Ukwd4sFSRMALokoni13L #301
51 jasinlee 1AvxDf5WPWvrUgLsPLpb6a8mYsPXNYxNMr #304 +.01BTC
52 fabrizziop 1MFfixQTJJ4v2PUKrz5kotQq1dPSJFUA71 #311 +.0001BTC
53 sethsethseth 1K42vUtvmg8hW6M6UjubCFhmJLv4jLby4C #314
54 Spenzert 19nPdToTaAh2jVUuotaiDhPBxcPLuLEuXD #319 signed his message, +.0001BTC
53 sethsethseth 1K42vUtvmg8hW6M6UjubCFhmJLv4jLby4C #322 <- keeping it in place of #54
55 Fjordbit 1KZnfWkXXLdEjvQKYALbEsjbeWpvSG9NWB #328 +.0001BTC
56 danieldaniel 17QAPwXnqXX771j2CB7y2ahuoX76X4aipv #340
57 caffeinewriter 13373CuvtwQGgDWYv28pm3mTxy2bGS5U4D #342
58 stan.distortion 13TasmL5GRp27JfbuTpGBAx1iDYyygb4gP #356
59 MKEGuy 12Zu56v2CENZREzQnaEia37CeBEEDG96fK #358
60 ianbakewell 1Q1k2uTUZ1ZSSufH2w9xnCnPPzC1QmreEa #371
61 squall1066 1ES9YKx3RHSsFLsGAKJva4cG8W7xG4kHok #373 "Rounded up to 2.27BTC"
62 Gavin Andresen 12r6DPnX5TNK4PhnTiShmuK6o4jE8Yh28C #377 "rounded up to 3.11 BTC (because eleven is my favorite number)"
63 dreamwatcher 1JYMASNzjSPhQZi6zjpb2duBLo3wXPSWLj #380 "Upped it to 3.5 BTC"
64 lightlord 13cjE1VDsiF5SjFEt5kg2izYmcvUmpwTi5 #381
65 kwoody 1CvU9yqNQHKLHVrJnwgVQcoUJ9GfUzS8Ad #382 "Sent 3.66666420 to Carlos L."
66 Carlos L. 18zSd8Ra4bioqQAfSVMqr8J6MtaY58xA31 #388 <-- currently has coins
67 x0Jakeyboy0x 1JvRuTLAo3hMbEqEDZ5V6V9YbvhjbfhkuX #391
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I just realised the 'edge' lines on my charts have been wrong since they first appeared. They were showing 1.9% of the total amount received, including amounts which were refunded for being over max-bet or under min-bet (minus fees paid). I've fixed the bug now, and so in future the 'edge' lines will be a little lower. Here's a fixed version of this month's graph. The edge lines show the expected profits after fees for the given house edge. Note that the current profit-before-fees is 1.913%, slightly higher than expected, but in the previous graph the edge line was higher than the actual profit. That's what tipped me off to the bug. Now the profit line is slightly higher than the 1.9% edge line, as it should be:  |
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Corrected  Yeah, it's working for me again now. Thanks for the bonus. I turned my 13 deposit + 100 bonus into a 137 withdrawal. I used martingale betting, and almost lost it all, but won shortly before running out of chips:  That's a quick way of clearing the bonus requirement too... |
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State-regulated casinos have enormous expenditures (even online casinos have to pay drastic license fees and taxes), but anyway they have just 1-2% house edge in average. In the Bitcoin world with negligible expenditures, more than 99% of the revenue goes to the site owner as pure profit and I am sure that SatoshiDICE would be still profitable with 0.1%, or even 0.01%, house edge.
Do some research into "risk of ruin" and variance. The house edge isn't guaranteed income. The actual profitability of a gambling site goes up and down dramatically. The smaller the house edge, the bigger the chance of them being unable to pay out their winning players. The bigger the house edge, the bigger the max bet they can safely offer. You don't want to be playing on a site with a 0.01% house edge because they'll eventually go bust, and be unable to pay you out when you win. If you look at my chart of the satoshidice profits for the first few days of this year, you'll see that they started the year about 33k BTC up, and have experienced swings of 25% of their entire bankroll, both up and down. That's huge, and probably too dangerous to be sustainable. That's probably why they changed how their lucky numbers are generated yesterday, effectively reducing their max bet without reducing the amount that people are allowed to bet. It will reduce their variance and corresponding risk of ruin. |
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Results: 2013-Jan-03 11:38am (up to block 215013)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
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1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 61238 | 0 (0.00000) | 60153 | 1085 | 514.95 | 0.01 | 83.62 | 514.93 | 0.004
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3108 | 0 (0.00000) | 2616 | 492 | 44.72 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 44.71 | 0.008
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5079 | 1 (0.00021) | 4660 | 418 | 66.89 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -93.07 | 239.137
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7692 | 2 (0.00028) | 7270 | 420 | 110.26 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 94.17 | 14.593
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9253 | 1 (0.00011) | 8845 | 407 | 227.62 | 4.38 | 18.65 | 223.23 | 1.928
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9320 | 3 (0.00034) | 8928 | 389 | 530.80 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 227.29 | 57.178
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12213 | 12 (0.00102) | 11804 | 397 | 804.31 | 155.67 | 55.70 | 648.63 | 19.355
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15087 | 28 (0.00191) | 14633 | 426 | 1765.92 | 1318.51 | 48.31 | 447.40 | 74.664
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 16926 | 71 (0.00429) | 16480 | 375 | 2016.67 | 2909.06 | 13.16 | -892.39 | 144.251
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25024 | 183 (0.00751) | 24173 | 668 | 4281.67 | 3929.39 | 9.94 | 352.28 | 91.772
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 72975 | 1122 (0.01547) | 71418 | 435 | 19072.37 | 16505.67 | 1.91 | 2566.69 | 86.542
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19588 | 458 (0.02380) | 18782 | 348 | 6325.85 | 6334.66 | 15.06 | -8.81 | 100.139
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 42678 | 1323 (0.03128) | 40979 | 376 | 20333.61 | 17599.93 | 9.31 | 2733.68 | 86.556
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22568 | 1028 (0.04639) | 21133 | 407 | 8353.56 | 9416.33 | 25.08 | -1062.76 | 112.722
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28308 | 1721 (0.06158) | 26226 | 361 | 6142.17 | 5667.82 | 31.25 | 474.35 | 92.277
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32157 | 2984 (0.09391) | 28790 | 383 | 12999.30 | 14554.28 | 7.11 | -1554.97 | 111.962
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 131754 | 16159 (0.12304) | 115167 | 428 | 51872.46 | 50313.35 | 100.17 | 1559.11 | 96.994
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 49254 | 9050 (0.18533) | 39781 | 423 | 83557.73 | 82321.67 | 3314.63 | 1236.06 | 98.521
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 155976 | 37869 (0.24350) | 117651 | 456 | 175853.42 | 176042.96 | 1617.02 | -189.53 | 100.108
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 127685 | 46846 (0.36826) | 80362 | 477 | 171734.47 | 168467.75 | 1012.85 | 3266.72 | 98.098
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 819696 | 399755 (0.48848) | 418605 | 1336 | 547005.48 | 538157.80 | 2923.90 | 8847.68 | 98.383
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 351990 | 175342 (0.49925) | 175870 | 778 | 387774.08 | 378362.22 | 5320.11 | 9411.85 | 97.573
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 237721 | 174583 (0.73596) | 62636 | 502 | 242631.45 | 237143.08 | 5454.75 | 5488.36 | 97.738
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 42274 | 33282 (0.79462) | 8602 | 390 | 48220.01 | 47272.05 | 1187.12 | 947.96 | 98.034
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32114 | 27152 (0.85699) | 4531 | 431 | 44402.80 | 43753.24 | 400.12 | 649.55 | 98.537
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 38261 | 34679 (0.91596) | 3182 | 400 | 48434.43 | 48248.73 | 0.08 | 185.70 | 99.617
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11497 | 10672 (0.98106) | 206 | 619 | 21255.38 | 20910.34 | 239.42 | 345.03 | 98.377
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small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2303260 | 936381 | 1353539 | 13340 | 533690.06 | 522212.25 | 201.77 | 11477.81 | 97.849
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 78176 | 37945 | 39944 | 287 | 1372642.43 | 1347656.33 | 21723.70 | 24986.10 | 98.180
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| 2381436 | 974326 | 1393483 | 13627 | 1906332.50 | 1869868.58 | 21925.47 | 36463.91 | 98.087
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SD Profit before fees: 36463.91896943 BTC (1.913%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1576.87037500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 34887.04859443 BTC (1.830%)
Pending Liabilities: 0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit: 34887.04859443 BTC (1.830%)
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Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 7793274 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4371926 (56.1%)
Blockchain MB: 3318.5 : SatoshiDice MB: 1796.8 (54.1%)   |
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But I still very doubt if all these players would be aware about negative EV and understand what does in means, they would continue playing S.Dice.
I would be surprised if there are many gamblers who don't realise that the odds are tipped in favour of the house. The house is running a business. If the odds aren't in their favour, how does the house keep the business running, and why would they bother? |
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Here's an idea that should get you some extra traffic; I notice the site is pretty quiet at the moment...
Backdate the jackpot.
i.e. work out what the jackpot would be if you had been running a progressive pot since the site started.
When I looked in yesterday I think you had around 26000 games played and a jackpot of 4004 or so.
Now you have 37000 games played and a jackpot of 4134.
So each 11000 games adds about 130 to the pot. (How does that work exactly?)
So 37000 games should have added around 440 to the pot.
So the pot should be 4440. Hmm. Not as big as I thought it would be.
That's very rough and ready, but having a larger jackpot as a one-off promotion should encourage more people to play, and not cost you very much.
Just a thought...
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There are a few minor issues with queuing up your withdrawal: can you continue playing while waiting on a withdrawal? do we need a system where you can cancel pending withdrawals?
I think you should treat it just like a regular withdrawal, but delay the payout until you feel it's safe to do so. You instantly take the credits out of my account, so I can't play with them any more, and don't let me cancel the withdrawal. Since you only seem to wait for 2 confirmations, it shouldn't take very long - 2 hours would be pretty unusual. |
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