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9541

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: December 30, 2012, 10:17:30 PM

Quote from: dooglus on December 30, 2012, 07:38:20 PM

So it must just be that the winning bets happened to be higher stakes on average than the losing bets.

I'll look at the actual bets and see what I find.

As of now, there have been 1021 winning bets and 20953 losing bets.

The total staked on the winning bets is 436.16236956 BTC, making an average of 0.42719 BTC per winning bet. The total profit from the winning bets was 8859.71980712, making the average payout 21.313x. That's a little lower than the current payout, because the house edge used to be a bit higher than it is now.

The total staked on the losing bets is 7783.09448172 BTC, making an average of 0.37145 BTC per losing bet. The total losses from the losing bets was 7750.01507560, a little lower than the amount staked, since a small percentage is returned to losing players.

So the winning bets averaged 15% higher than the losing bets.

That's why the house is doing so badly; on average the winning bets were bigger than the losing bets.

Here's a breakdown of the bets on lessthan 3000. The 4 columns are:

* the number of bets of each size
* the size in bitcoins
* the percentage this size represents
* the cumulative percentage so far

For winning bets (for example, the first line means "there were 71 winning bets of 0.001 BTC. That represents 6.95% of all the winning bets, and 6.95% of winning bets were for this amount or less"):

Code:

#bet      stake   percent cumulative%
  71      0.001  6.953967   6.953967
   4    0.00102  0.391773   7.345739
   1     0.0015  0.097943   7.443683
   4      0.002  0.391773   7.835455
   2     0.0025  0.195886   8.031342
   2      0.003  0.195886   8.227228
   1 0.00373426  0.097943   8.325171
   6      0.004  0.587659   8.912831
   2     0.0045  0.195886   9.108717
   5      0.005  0.489716   9.598433
   2      0.006  0.195886   9.794319
   1 0.00751093  0.097943   9.892262
   5      0.008  0.489716  10.381978
   1     0.0083  0.097943  10.479922
   4 0.00899999  0.391773  10.871694
 256       0.01 25.073457  35.945152
   1      0.011  0.097943  36.043095
   2 0.01116071  0.195886  36.238981
   2 0.01157625  0.195886  36.434868
   1 0.01215506  0.097943  36.532811
   2      0.013  0.195886  36.728697
   1      0.014  0.097943  36.826641
   1   0.014071  0.097943  36.924584
   3      0.015  0.293830  37.218413
   1 0.01551328  0.097943  37.316357
   2 0.01628895  0.195886  37.512243
   1 0.01649073  0.097943  37.610186
  37       0.02  3.623898  41.234084
   1    0.02142  0.097943  41.332027
   1 0.02164236  0.097943  41.429971
   1      0.022  0.097943  41.527914
   1    0.02205  0.097943  41.625857
   1 0.02232143  0.097943  41.723800
   2      0.023  0.195886  41.919687
   1  0.0231525  0.097943  42.017630
   3      0.025  0.293830  42.311459
   1 0.02680191  0.097943  42.409403
   1      0.027  0.097943  42.507346
   2 0.02954911  0.195886  42.703232
  23       0.03  2.252693  44.955926
   3    0.03125  0.293830  45.249755
   2      0.032  0.195886  45.445642
   1      0.033  0.097943  45.543585
   1      0.034  0.097943  45.641528
   2      0.035  0.195886  45.837414
   1 0.03762747  0.097943  45.935357
   1 0.03959863  0.097943  46.033301
   6      0.045  0.587659  46.620960
  56       0.05  5.484819  52.105779
   1       0.06  0.097943  52.203722
   2     0.0625  0.195886  52.399608
   1      0.064  0.097943  52.497551
   4       0.07  0.391773  52.889324
   1       0.08  0.097943  52.987267
 148        0.1 14.495593  67.482860
   1     0.1075  0.097943  67.580803
   1       0.11  0.097943  67.678746
   3      0.125  0.293830  67.972576
   3       0.15  0.293830  68.266405
  39        0.2  3.819785  72.086190
   2       0.22  0.195886  72.282076
   2       0.25  0.195886  72.477963
  42        0.3  4.113614  76.591577
   1       0.33  0.097943  76.689520
   7        0.4  0.685602  77.375122
  75        0.5  7.345739  84.720862
   2        0.6  0.195886  84.916748
  14        0.7  1.371205  86.287953
   1       0.95  0.097943  86.385896
  73          1  7.149853  93.535749
   1        1.5  0.097943  93.633692
  17          2  1.665034  95.298727
   6          3  0.587659  95.886386
   1      4.999  0.097943  95.984329
  40          5  3.917728  99.902057
   1          6  0.097943 100.000000

and for losing bets:

Code:

#bet      stake   percent cumulative%
1494      0.001  7.130244   7.130244
  13 0.00100001  0.062044   7.192288
  64    0.00102  0.305446   7.497733
   1    0.00106  0.004773   7.502506
   3     0.0011  0.014318   7.516823
   2     0.0012  0.009545   7.526369
   3     0.0013  0.014318   7.540686
   1   0.001329  0.004773   7.545459
   1 0.00138329  0.004773   7.550231
   1     0.0014  0.004773   7.555004
  12     0.0015  0.057271   7.612275
   1     0.0016  0.004773   7.617048
   1     0.0017  0.004773   7.621820
   2     0.0018  0.009545   7.631365
 171      0.002  0.816112   8.447478
  21     0.0025  0.100224   8.547702
   1     0.0027  0.004773   8.552475
   1    0.00275  0.004773   8.557247
   1     0.0029  0.004773   8.562020
  64      0.003  0.305446   8.867465
   1     0.0031  0.004773   8.872238
   1   0.003177  0.004773   8.877010
   1     0.0033  0.004773   8.881783
   1     0.0035  0.004773   8.886556
   4     0.0036  0.019090   8.905646
  24 0.00373426  0.114542   9.020188
 141      0.004  0.672935   9.693123
   1 0.00429439  0.004773   9.697895
  16     0.0045  0.076361   9.774257
 156      0.005  0.744523  10.518780
   1     0.0055  0.004773  10.523553
   1 0.00584955  0.004773  10.528325
  14      0.006  0.066816  10.595142
   1     0.0065  0.004773  10.599914
   3 0.00653124  0.014318  10.614232
   7     0.0067  0.033408  10.647640
   1     0.0069  0.004773  10.652413
   1 0.00692305  0.004773  10.657185
   9      0.007  0.042953  10.700138
   1     0.0075  0.004773  10.704911
   2 0.00751093  0.009545  10.714456
   1 0.00778233  0.004773  10.719229
  54      0.008  0.257720  10.976948
   1   0.008002  0.004773  10.981721
   1     0.0083  0.004773  10.986494
   1     0.0085  0.004773  10.991266
   3 0.00863757  0.014318  11.005584
   1     0.0089  0.004773  11.010357
 130 0.00899999  0.620436  11.630793
   6      0.009  0.028636  11.659428
   6     0.0095  0.028636  11.688064
5030       0.01 24.006109  35.694173
   1    0.01001  0.004773  35.698945
   1 0.01003588  0.004773  35.703718
   1 0.01009985  0.004773  35.708490
   1 0.01012191  0.004773  35.713263
   1 0.01039657  0.004773  35.718036
   1 0.01041177  0.004773  35.722808
  12     0.0105  0.057271  35.780079
   1  0.0108034  0.004773  35.784852
   1    0.01091  0.004773  35.789624
   1 0.01092729  0.004773  35.794397
  81      0.011  0.386579  36.180976
   9   0.011025  0.042953  36.223930
   1     0.0111  0.004773  36.228702
   1  0.0111296  0.004773  36.233475
  11 0.01116071  0.052498  36.285973
   1     0.0112  0.004773  36.290746
   1   0.011331  0.004773  36.295519
   1 0.01142318  0.004773  36.300291
   1   0.011575  0.004773  36.305064
   7 0.01157625  0.033408  36.338472
  28      0.012  0.133632  36.472104
  14 0.01215506  0.066816  36.538920
   1 0.01217875  0.004773  36.543693
   1     0.0122  0.004773  36.548466
  15     0.0123  0.071589  36.620054
   1    0.01234  0.004773  36.624827
   1    0.01245  0.004773  36.629600
   2     0.0125  0.009545  36.639145
   1     0.0126  0.004773  36.643917
   5 0.01276282  0.023863  36.667780
   1 0.01281269  0.004773  36.672553
  17      0.013  0.081134  36.753687
  17 0.01302083  0.081134  36.834821
   5 0.01340096  0.023863  36.858684
   1 0.01347832  0.004773  36.863456
   1  0.0134796  0.004773  36.868229
   2     0.0137  0.009545  36.877774
   1     0.0138  0.004773  36.882547
   2     0.0139  0.009545  36.892092
   4      0.014  0.019090  36.911182
   4   0.014071  0.019090  36.930273
   1     0.0141  0.004773  36.935045
   1 0.01417724  0.004773  36.939818
   1 0.01455739  0.004773  36.944590
   2     0.0147  0.009545  36.954135
   1 0.01471534  0.004773  36.958908
   9 0.01477455  0.042953  37.001861
   1  0.0149111  0.004773  37.006634
  32      0.015  0.152723  37.159357
   1 0.01515274  0.004773  37.164129
   1 0.01525252  0.004773  37.168902
   5 0.01551328  0.023863  37.192765
   1 0.01566666  0.004773  37.197537
   1 0.01568165  0.004773  37.202310
   1     0.0157  0.004773  37.207083
   1     0.0158  0.004773  37.211855
  26      0.016  0.124087  37.335942
   4 0.01628895  0.019090  37.355033
   1  0.0165375  0.004773  37.359805
   3     0.0167  0.014318  37.374123
   1 0.01677549  0.004773  37.378896
   4      0.017  0.019090  37.397986
   1 0.01710339  0.004773  37.402759
   3      0.018  0.014318  37.417076
   1     0.0188  0.004773  37.421849
   1 0.01885649  0.004773  37.426621
   2      0.019  0.009545  37.436167
   1 0.01912406  0.004773  37.440939
   1 0.01979932  0.004773  37.445712
   1 0.01999999  0.004773  37.450484
 756       0.02  3.608075  41.058560
   4     0.0202  0.019090  41.077650
   1  0.0202464  0.004773  41.082423
   6     0.0204  0.028636  41.111058
   3     0.0206  0.014318  41.125376
   2   0.020808  0.009545  41.134921
  13      0.021  0.062044  41.196965
   1   0.021012  0.004773  41.201737
   1  0.0211111  0.004773  41.206510
   1   0.021212  0.004773  41.211282
   2   0.021218  0.009545  41.220828
   2     0.0214  0.009545  41.230373
  10      0.022  0.047726  41.278099
  15    0.02205  0.071589  41.349687
   1 0.02215939  0.004773  41.354460
   1 0.02216183  0.004773  41.359233
   5 0.02232143  0.023863  41.383095
   1    0.02247  0.004773  41.387868
   1 0.02292018  0.004773  41.392641
   3      0.023  0.014318  41.406958
   1 0.02314836  0.004773  41.411731
  11  0.0231525  0.052498  41.464229
   1      0.024  0.004773  41.469002
   1 0.02406619  0.004773  41.473775
   1   0.024255  0.004773  41.478547
   9 0.02431013  0.042953  41.521501
   1 0.02443342  0.004773  41.526273
   1     0.0246  0.004773  41.531046
 126      0.025  0.601346  42.132392
  10 0.02552563  0.047726  42.180117
   3      0.026  0.014318  42.194435
   6 0.02604167  0.028636  42.223071
   1 0.02674114  0.004773  42.227843
   8 0.02680191  0.038181  42.266024
   7      0.027  0.033408  42.299432
   1      0.028  0.004773  42.304205
   8 0.02814201  0.038181  42.342385
   1     0.0285  0.004773  42.347158
  11 0.02954911  0.052498  42.399656
 329       0.03  1.570181  43.969837
   1      0.031  0.004773  43.974610
   6 0.03102656  0.028636  44.003245
  55    0.03125  0.262492  44.265738
   6      0.032  0.028636  44.294373
   1 0.03202647  0.004773  44.299146
   3 0.03257789  0.014318  44.313463
   4      0.033  0.019090  44.332554
   2     0.0333  0.009545  44.342099
   1 0.03406901  0.004773  44.346872
   5 0.03420679  0.023863  44.370735
  33      0.035  0.157495  44.528230
   1 0.03514243  0.004773  44.533002
   2 0.03591713  0.009545  44.542548
   3      0.036  0.014318  44.556865
   2 0.03771298  0.009545  44.566411
   1   0.037778  0.004773  44.571183
   3      0.038  0.014318  44.585501
   1      0.039  0.004773  44.590273
   1  0.0391398  0.004773  44.595046
   1     0.0395  0.004773  44.599819
   2 0.03959863  0.009545  44.609364
 105       0.04  0.501122  45.110485
   4 0.04157856  0.019090  45.129576
   1     0.0417  0.004773  45.134348
   1      0.042  0.004773  45.139121
   2      0.043  0.009545  45.148666
   1 0.04393789  0.004773  45.153439
   5      0.044  0.023863  45.177302
   3 0.04464286  0.014318  45.191619
  85      0.045  0.405670  45.597289
   1 0.04519886  0.004773  45.602062
   1   0.045766  0.004773  45.606834
   1 0.04584037  0.004773  45.611607
   2      0.046  0.009545  45.621152
   1      0.047  0.004773  45.625925
   1      0.048  0.004773  45.630697
   1 0.04884156  0.004773  45.635470
   1      0.049  0.004773  45.640242
   1 0.04924716  0.004773  45.645015
   1   0.049437  0.004773  45.649788
1376       0.05  6.567079  52.216866
   1 0.05042546  0.004773  52.221639
   3      0.051  0.014318  52.235957
   3      0.052  0.014318  52.250274
   5 0.05208333  0.023863  52.274137
   1  0.0525252  0.004773  52.278910
   4      0.055  0.019090  52.298000
   1     0.0555  0.004773  52.302773
   1   0.057777  0.004773  52.307545
   1 0.05982513  0.004773  52.312318
  26       0.06  0.124087  52.436405
   1     0.0602  0.004773  52.441178
  32     0.0625  0.152723  52.593901
   4      0.064  0.019090  52.612991
   1     0.0666  0.004773  52.617764
   5     0.0667  0.023863  52.641626
   1      0.067  0.004773  52.646399
   1     0.0695  0.004773  52.651172
  45       0.07  0.214766  52.865938
   1 0.07121274  0.004773  52.870711
   1      0.072  0.004773  52.875483
  10      0.075  0.047726  52.923209
   1 0.07793123  0.004773  52.927982
   1      0.079  0.004773  52.932754
   1 0.07980875  0.004773  52.937527
  41       0.08  0.195676  53.133203
   1 0.08039827  0.004773  53.137975
   6     0.0833  0.028636  53.166611
   1      0.085  0.004773  53.171384
   1 0.08709104  0.004773  53.176156
   1      0.088  0.004773  53.180929
   2 0.08928571  0.009545  53.190474
   9       0.09  0.042953  53.233427
   1 0.09290347  0.004773  53.238200
   2      0.095  0.009545  53.247745
   1      0.098  0.004773  53.252518
   1 0.09852058  0.004773  53.257290
   1     0.0995  0.004773  53.262063
3170        0.1 15.129098  68.391161
   1      0.101  0.004773  68.395934
   2 0.10416667  0.009545  68.405479
  16       0.11  0.076361  68.481840
   1 0.11318846  0.004773  68.486613
   1  0.1145361  0.004773  68.491385
   8       0.12  0.038181  68.529566
  23      0.125  0.109769  68.639336
   2      0.128  0.009545  68.648881
   3       0.13  0.014318  68.663199
   1      0.132  0.004773  68.667971
   2     0.1333  0.009545  68.677516
   1      0.135  0.004773  68.682289
   1     0.1356  0.004773  68.687062
   1 0.13625449  0.004773  68.691834
   4       0.14  0.019090  68.710924
   1  0.1407124  0.004773  68.715697
  96       0.15  0.458168  69.173865
   1      0.151  0.004773  69.178638
   1      0.155  0.004773  69.183410
   7       0.16  0.033408  69.216819
   4     0.1667  0.019090  69.235909
   1      0.169  0.004773  69.240682
   2       0.17  0.009545  69.250227
   1      0.175  0.004773  69.254999
   4       0.18  0.019090  69.274090
   4       0.19  0.019090  69.293180
 898        0.2  4.285782  73.578962
   1      0.201  0.004773  73.583735
   2 0.20833333  0.009545  73.593280
   1       0.21  0.004773  73.598053
   1   0.212121  0.004773  73.602825
  14       0.22  0.066816  73.669642
   1      0.222  0.004773  73.674414
   2       0.24  0.009545  73.683959
  47       0.25  0.224312  73.908271
   1 0.25342271  0.004773  73.913043
   1 0.25530287  0.004773  73.917816
   1      0.256  0.004773  73.922589
   1 0.25861035  0.004773  73.927361
   1       0.28  0.004773  73.932134
   2       0.29  0.009545  73.941679
   1      0.296  0.004773  73.946452
 736        0.3  3.512623  77.459075
   1       0.31  0.004773  77.463848
   3       0.32  0.014318  77.478165
   9       0.33  0.042953  77.521119
   2     0.3333  0.009545  77.530664
   3       0.34  0.014318  77.544982
   7       0.35  0.033408  77.578390
   5       0.38  0.023863  77.602253
   1       0.39  0.004773  77.607025
  80        0.4  0.381807  77.988832
   3     0.4167  0.014318  78.003150
   1       0.42  0.004773  78.007922
   1       0.43  0.004773  78.012695
   1      0.432  0.004773  78.017468
   4       0.44  0.019090  78.036558
   1      0.445  0.004773  78.041331
   2       0.45  0.009545  78.050876
   1       0.46  0.004773  78.055648
   2       0.48  0.009545  78.065194
   1       0.49  0.004773  78.069966
1415        0.5  6.753210  84.823176
   1       0.51  0.004773  84.827948
   5       0.55  0.023863  84.851811
   1      0.555  0.004773  84.856584
   1       0.58  0.004773  84.861356
   9        0.6  0.042953  84.904310
   1      0.618  0.004773  84.909082
   1       0.65  0.004773  84.913855
   6       0.66  0.028636  84.942490
   2       0.68  0.009545  84.952036
 269        0.7  1.283826  86.235861
   4       0.75  0.019090  86.254952
   1     0.7504  0.004773  86.259724
   1 0.77272797  0.004773  86.264497
  19        0.8  0.090679  86.355176
   1       0.89  0.004773  86.359948
   6        0.9  0.028636  86.388584
   1       0.93  0.004773  86.393357
   1       0.94  0.004773  86.398129
   1       0.95  0.004773  86.402902
   1 0.98400844  0.004773  86.407674
   6       0.99  0.028636  86.436310
   1     0.9925  0.004773  86.441082
   1      0.998  0.004773  86.445855
1804          1  8.609746  95.055601
   1      1.001  0.004773  95.060373
   1       1.04  0.004773  95.065146
   7        1.1  0.033408  95.098554
   1 1.11122222  0.004773  95.103326
   1       1.13  0.004773  95.108099
   1       1.14  0.004773  95.112872
   1       1.16  0.004773  95.117644
   2        1.2  0.009545  95.127189
   1       1.23  0.004773  95.131962
   1       1.25  0.004773  95.136735
   1        1.3  0.004773  95.141507
   1       1.35  0.004773  95.146280
   3        1.4  0.014318  95.160598
   1       1.45  0.004773  95.165370
   5        1.5  0.023863  95.189233
   2        1.6  0.009545  95.198778
   1       1.75  0.004773  95.203551
   1        1.8  0.004773  95.208323
   1       1.82  0.004773  95.213096
   2       1.99  0.009545  95.222641
 284          2  1.355414  96.578056
   1        2.1  0.004773  96.582828
   1        2.2  0.004773  96.587601
   1       2.32  0.004773  96.592373
   1        2.4  0.004773  96.597146
   3        2.5  0.014318  96.611464
   1       2.55  0.004773  96.616236
   1        2.6  0.004773  96.621009
   1       2.74  0.004773  96.625782
   2        2.8  0.009545  96.635327
   1       2.99  0.004773  96.640099
 146          3  0.696798  97.336897
   2        3.1  0.009545  97.346442
   1        3.2  0.004773  97.351215
   1        3.4  0.004773  97.355987
   1        3.5  0.004773  97.360760
   1        3.8  0.004773  97.365532
  18          4  0.085907  97.451439
   1        4.3  0.004773  97.456212
   6        4.5  0.028636  97.484847
   1        4.7  0.004773  97.489620
   1       4.76  0.004773  97.494392
   1        4.8  0.004773  97.499165
  18      4.999  0.085907  97.585071
 492          5  2.348112  99.933184
   3          6  0.014318  99.947502
   1          8  0.004773  99.952274
   6         10  0.028636  99.980910
   1         15  0.004773  99.985682
   1         42  0.004773  99.990455
   1         51  0.004773  99.995227
   1         57  0.004773 100.000000

Plotting the cumulative percentage against the stake we can see where the distribution of the winning bets is different than the losing bets:

The two lines are pretty much on top of each other until the 1 BTC point, at which point the losing bets goes ahead. It stays ahead until the 5 BTC point, where the winning bets line catches up.

What this means is that the 1 BTC bets lost more than they should have, and the 5 BTC bets won more than they should have, and all the other stakes are pretty much insignificant.

1 BTC bets:

73 won, 1804 lost, 1877 total. only 3.889% of 1 BTC bets won when it 'should' be 4.578%, or 86 winning bets.
We would expect players to have won 13 more 1 BTC bets than they did.

5 BTC bets:

40 win, 492 lost, 532 total. 7.519% of 5 BTC bets won when it 'should' be 4.578%, or 24 winning bets.
We would expect players to have won 16 less 5 BTC bets than they did.

These two together pretty much explain the overall house loss on lessthan 3000.

9542

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: December 30, 2012, 07:44:13 PM

Quote Results: 2012-Dec-30 11:38am (up to block 214370) Address Target Should Win \| #Bets \| Win \| Lose \| Refunds \| BTC In \| BTC Out \| Refund \| Profit \| RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 \| 59856 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 58856 \| 1000 \| 484.31 \| 0.01 \| 73.78 \| 484.29 \| 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 \| 3089 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 2598 \| 491 \| 44.54 \| 0.00 \| 15.23 \| 44.53 \| 0.008 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 \| 4952 \| 1 (0.00022) \| 4536 \| 415 \| 64.53 \| 159.96 \| 7.44 \| -95.42 \| 247.864 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 \| 7638 \| 2 (0.00028) \| 7219 \| 417 \| 107.38 \| 16.08 \| 9.01 \| 91.29 \| 14.983 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 \| 9121 \| 1 (0.00011) \| 8714 \| 406 \| 216.11 \| 4.35 \| 18.65 \| 211.75 \| 2.017 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 \| 9167 \| 3 (0.00034) \| 8775 \| 389 \| 511.09 \| 303.46 \| 1.36 \| 207.62 \| 59.377 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 \| 12029 \| 12 (0.00103) \| 11623 \| 394 \| 792.55 \| 155.67 \| 55.70 \| 636.87 \| 19.642 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 \| 14992 \| 28 (0.00192) \| 14539 \| 425 \| 1761.66 \| 1318.49 \| 48.31 \| 443.16 \| 74.844 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 \| 16746 \| 70 (0.00428) \| 16301 \| 375 \| 1911.33 \| 2658.76 \| 13.16 \| -747.42 \| 139.105 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 \| 24037 \| 175 (0.00749) \| 23195 \| 667 \| 3834.72 \| 3472.68 \| 9.94 \| 362.04 \| 90.559 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 \| 70524 \| 1094 (0.01561) \| 69000 \| 430 \| 17225.50 \| 14474.98 \| 1.90 \| 2750.51 \| 84.032 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 \| 19331 \| 457 (0.02407) \| 18528 \| 346 \| 5993.98 \| 6247.54 \| 15.06 \| -253.55 \| 104.230 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 \| 41082 \| 1281 (0.03147) \| 39426 \| 375 \| 15722.73 \| 14195.42 \| 9.30 \| 1527.31 \| 90.286 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 \| 22382 \| 1021 (0.04646) \| 20954 \| 407 \| 8219.26 \| 9328.96 \| 25.08 \| -1109.69 \| 113.501 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 \| 28144 \| 1713 (0.06165) \| 26071 \| 360 \| 6044.04 \| 5482.22 \| 31.25 \| 561.82 \| 90.704 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 \| 31606 \| 2926 (0.09370) \| 28300 \| 380 \| 12151.17 \| 12818.30 \| 7.11 \| -667.13 \| 105.490 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 \| 129595 \| 15893 (0.12304) \| 113278 \| 424 \| 42929.55 \| 41369.58 \| 100.16 \| 1559.97 \| 96.366 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 \| 47534 \| 8751 (0.18570) \| 38374 \| 409 \| 41465.97 \| 40161.42 \| 114.63 \| 1304.55 \| 96.854 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 \| 153598 \| 37292 (0.24350) \| 115857 \| 449 \| 124591.16 \| 122112.82 \| 617.02 \| 2478.33 \| 98.011 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 \| 123772 \| 45404 (0.36824) \| 77897 \| 471 \| 133595.59 \| 129578.74 \| 212.84 \| 4016.85 \| 96.993 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 \| 807563 \| 393913 (0.48858) \| 412324 \| 1326 \| 516039.87 \| 508059.55 \| 2923.87 \| 7980.32 \| 98.454 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 \| 343862 \| 171283 (0.49923) \| 171809 \| 770 \| 355985.76 \| 346571.17 \| 5320.08 \| 9414.59 \| 97.355 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 \| 234809 \| 172419 (0.73585) \| 61893 \| 497 \| 234530.31 \| 229739.65 \| 5454.74 \| 4790.66 \| 97.957 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 \| 41656 \| 32807 (0.79484) \| 8468 \| 381 \| 45225.96 \| 44964.65 \| 1187.11 \| 261.31 \| 99.422 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 \| 31374 \| 26534 (0.85743) \| 4412 \| 428 \| 43915.56 \| 43271.28 \| 400.11 \| 644.27 \| 98.533 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 \| 37165 \| 33695 (0.91637) \| 3075 \| 395 \| 47408.49 \| 47190.11 \| 0.06 \| 218.37 \| 99.539 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 \| 11410 \| 10595 (0.98129) \| 202 \| 613 \| 21204.17 \| 20859.64 \| 239.40 \| 344.52 \| 98.375 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) \| 2261661 \| 920308 \| 1328179 \| 13174 \| 524889.31 \| 513887.18 \| 188.74 \| 11002.13 \| 97.904 big (bets >= 4 BTC) \| 75373 \| 37062 \| 38045 \| 266 \| 1157088.10 \| 1130628.45 \| 16723.70 \| 26459.65 \| 97.713 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \| 2337034 \| 957370 \| 1366224 \| 13440 \| 1681977.42 \| 1644515.63 \| 16912.44 \| 37461.78 \| 97.773 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SD Profit before fees: 37461.78502591 BTC (2.227%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1531.96407500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 35929.82095091 BTC (2.136%) Pending Liabilities: 0.25574000 BTC Final SD Profit: 35929.56521091 BTC (2.136%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7650884 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4293918 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 3258.8 : SatoshiDice MB: 1763.3 (54.1%)

9543

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: December 30, 2012, 07:38:20 PM

Quote from: Bowjob on December 30, 2012, 11:22:37 AM How come S.Dice 4% keeps on losing BTC? Sorry, I got your private message asking the same and was planning to look into it. I suspect that what happened is that one (or very few) big bets had a lucky win, and there's not been enough volume on that address to counteract that win. If you look at the stats for lessthan 3000, you'll see that 4.578% of bets should win, and 4.629% of bets actually did win, so that's working out about right; the actual win rate is only 1.1% higher than it should be: Code: >>> 100 * (4.629 - 4.578) / 4.578 1.1140235910877951 So it must just be that the winning bets happened to be higher stakes on average than the losing bets. I'll look at the actual bets and see what I find.

9544

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: December 29, 2012, 07:37:11 PM

Quote txid:n block date game (lucky - result ) address stake payout profit ------------------ ------ ------------------ ------ ----- --------- ---------------------------------- ----- ------ ------ 31f863350a52231f:0 213417 01:56:49 Dec-24-12 <32768 (11722 - WIN ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah 250.00 489.25 239.25 Total of 17 bets unaccounted for. Results: 2012-Dec-29 11:19am (up to block 214207) Address Target Should Win \| #Bets \| Win \| Lose \| Refunds \| BTC In \| BTC Out \| Refund \| Profit \| RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 \| 59610 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 58612 \| 998 \| 478.78 \| 0.01 \| 73.78 \| 478.76 \| 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 \| 3088 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 2597 \| 491 \| 44.53 \| 0.00 \| 15.23 \| 44.52 \| 0.008 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 \| 4823 \| 1 (0.00023) \| 4407 \| 415 \| 61.96 \| 159.96 \| 7.44 \| -97.99 \| 258.144 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 \| 6704 \| 2 (0.00032) \| 6285 \| 417 \| 97.94 \| 16.08 \| 9.01 \| 81.85 \| 16.427 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 \| 7421 \| 1 (0.00014) \| 7014 \| 406 \| 197.69 \| 4.35 \| 18.65 \| 193.33 \| 2.203 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 \| 9166 \| 3 (0.00034) \| 8774 \| 389 \| 511.08 \| 303.46 \| 1.36 \| 207.61 \| 59.378 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 \| 12008 \| 12 (0.00103) \| 11602 \| 394 \| 792.05 \| 155.67 \| 55.70 \| 636.38 \| 19.655 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 \| 13446 \| 23 (0.00177) \| 12999 \| 424 \| 1745.84 \| 1293.51 \| 48.30 \| 452.33 \| 74.091 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 \| 16743 \| 70 (0.00428) \| 16298 \| 375 \| 1910.81 \| 2658.76 \| 13.16 \| -747.94 \| 139.143 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 \| 23669 \| 172 (0.00748) \| 22830 \| 667 \| 3828.87 \| 3468.93 \| 9.94 \| 359.94 \| 90.599 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 \| 69733 \| 1076 (0.01553) \| 68227 \| 430 \| 17088.73 \| 14233.29 \| 1.90 \| 2855.44 \| 83.291 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 \| 19320 \| 457 (0.02409) \| 18517 \| 346 \| 5993.60 \| 6247.54 \| 15.06 \| -253.93 \| 104.237 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 \| 40723 \| 1269 (0.03145) \| 39079 \| 375 \| 15329.05 \| 13852.63 \| 9.30 \| 1476.42 \| 90.368 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 \| 21406 \| 972 (0.04629) \| 20027 \| 407 \| 8206.00 \| 9317.88 \| 25.08 \| -1111.88 \| 113.550 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 \| 28127 \| 1713 (0.06169) \| 26055 \| 359 \| 6043.01 \| 5482.22 \| 31.25 \| 560.79 \| 90.720 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 \| 31347 \| 2903 (0.09374) \| 28064 \| 380 \| 12145.45 \| 12813.94 \| 7.11 \| -668.49 \| 105.504 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 \| 128975 \| 15823 (0.12309) \| 112730 \| 422 \| 42163.55 \| 41030.97 \| 100.15 \| 1132.57 \| 97.314 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 \| 47269 \| 8711 (0.18589) \| 38149 \| 409 \| 40353.65 \| 39534.48 \| 114.63 \| 819.16 \| 97.970 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 \| 152883 \| 37129 (0.24357) \| 115307 \| 447 \| 123044.78 \| 121085.02 \| 617.01 \| 1959.75 \| 98.407 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 \| 122839 \| 45065 (0.36827) \| 77306 \| 468 \| 131863.84 \| 128488.02 \| 212.83 \| 3375.82 \| 97.440 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 \| 805103 \| 392758 (0.48864) \| 411023 \| 1322 \| 513773.94 \| 506066.91 \| 2923.86 \| 7707.03 \| 98.500 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 \| 341956 \| 170323 (0.49921) \| 170865 \| 768 \| 353434.26 \| 343842.21 \| 5320.08 \| 9592.05 \| 97.286 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 \| 233617 \| 171559 (0.73591) \| 61565 \| 493 \| 229555.42 \| 224389.85 \| 5454.73 \| 5165.57 \| 97.750 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 \| 40900 \| 32230 (0.79533) \| 8294 \| 376 \| 45041.82 \| 44804.70 \| 1187.10 \| 237.12 \| 99.474 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 \| 31113 \| 26316 (0.85759) \| 4370 \| 427 \| 43746.14 \| 43121.85 \| 400.11 \| 624.29 \| 98.573 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 \| 36789 \| 33345 (0.91617) \| 3051 \| 393 \| 46990.58 \| 46777.92 \| 0.06 \| 212.65 \| 99.547 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 \| 11367 \| 10556 (0.98122) \| 202 \| 609 \| 21171.41 \| 20826.76 \| 239.40 \| 344.64 \| 98.372 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) \| 2245101 \| 915529 \| 1316431 \| 13141 \| 522942.84 \| 511879.36 \| 188.64 \| 11063.47 \| 97.884 big (bets >= 4 BTC) \| 75044 \| 36960 \| 37818 \| 266 \| 1142672.06 \| 1118097.67 \| 16723.70 \| 24574.38 \| 97.849 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \| 2320145 \| 952489 \| 1354249 \| 13407 \| 1665614.90 \| 1629977.04 \| 16912.34 \| 35637.86 \| 97.860 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SD Profit before fees: 35637.86088376 BTC (2.140%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1515.05847500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 34122.80240876 BTC (2.049%) Pending Liabilities: 238.81425726 BTC Final SD Profit: 33883.98815150 BTC (2.034%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7606230 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4264011 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 3240.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 1751.4 (54.0%)

9545

Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game

on: December 29, 2012, 07:18:41 PM

Quote from: Bowjob on December 29, 2012, 11:51:20 AM Is there a way to bet on Satoshi once, but different bets? For instance, I want to do satoshi 73%, but then I want it so I do like 10 different bets, but one single transaction? Each transaction gets a single "lucky number". If you make multiple payments to the same satoshidice address in a single transaction, they'll all get the same lucky number. It acts just as if you made a single large payment to that address with the following exception: if you exceed the max bet with a single payment, the payment is returned to you and your bet doesn't count, but if you break your payment into multiple smaller amounts then they will be processed until their sum exceeds the maximum bet. So for example if you send a single 10 BTC payment to an address with a max bet of 5 BTC it will be returned, but if you send 10 single 1 BTC payments to the same address, 5 of them will be processed and the other 5 will be returned.

9546

Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game

on: December 28, 2012, 09:17:34 PM

Quote from: GernMiester on December 28, 2012, 08:48:02 PM http://blockchain.info/tx-index/39420845/9ea71aa39c1541d6a45dfe81c0826fd5437ffe73b1bf7d451bcaba167be407ac I turned $0.13 into $130.00 USD... This is a clearer view of the same bet: http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=b50c82a7d94598470f3c693183c74653734b2805c5b9f179a07b9768e62aec24

9547

Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game

on: December 28, 2012, 08:19:02 PM

Quote from: Gyrsur on December 28, 2012, 09:50:41 AM what does this payout of 0.0000775 mean? a loss or a win? does this mean it is a win and the pot is running out of cash? http://blockchain.info/tx-index/39708736/67c62117b8a8c2a6a5d78c2bc9dbe749706a377477fb686e9437ed4b84c2856d thanks! EDIT: the bet was 0.1155 with a fee of 0.0005 (http://blockchain.info/tx-index/39708718/8429a00bbc6b2bd4788636a44f698d4b0bac8991e5cbf405d9d21ad751606ca2). if it is a loss then the payout should be 0.00000001 with a fee of 0.0005. if it is a win then the payout should be 0.23094444 with a fee of 0.0005. You bet 0.1155 and lost. Losing bets pay out 0.005 times the bet, minus a fee of 0.0005 (or 0.00000001, whichever is greater) Code: (0.1155 * 0.005) - 0.0005 = 0.0000775

9548

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: December 28, 2012, 07:57:11 PM

Quote txid:n block date game (lucky - result ) address stake payout profit cumulative profit ------------------ ------ ------------------ ------ ----- --------- ---------------------------------- ----- ------ ------ ----------------- 31f863350a52231f:0 213417 01:56:49 Dec-24-12 <32768 (11722 - WIN ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah 250.00 489.25 239.25 239.25 0e92e4dd0578f246:1 214071 11:40:47 Dec-28-12 <32000 (51701 - LOSE ) 166Ug4Q9bExUdWFgj6KSzXY65Q2dErNLb2 0.01 0.00 -0.01 239.24 b4e24152a3c448b5:1 214071 11:40:47 Dec-28-12 <24000 (53947 - LOSE ) 1Ac7iPEShzgcQSE1cvvC4qskSWmwpMb9xt 0.01 0.00 -0.01 239.23 ----- ----- ----- 250.02 489.25 239.23 Total of 3 bets unaccounted for. Results: 2012-Dec-28 11:50am (up to block 214071) Address Target Should Win \| #Bets \| Win \| Lose \| Refunds \| BTC In \| BTC Out \| Refund \| Profit \| RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 \| 59132 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 58137 \| 995 \| 473.57 \| 0.01 \| 73.78 \| 473.55 \| 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 \| 3088 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 2597 \| 491 \| 44.53 \| 0.00 \| 15.23 \| 44.52 \| 0.008 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 \| 4812 \| 1 (0.00023) \| 4396 \| 415 \| 61.73 \| 159.96 \| 7.44 \| -98.22 \| 259.114 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 \| 6702 \| 2 (0.00032) \| 6285 \| 415 \| 97.94 \| 16.08 \| 7.01 \| 81.85 \| 16.427 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 \| 7416 \| 1 (0.00014) \| 7009 \| 406 \| 195.55 \| 4.34 \| 18.65 \| 191.20 \| 2.223 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 \| 9163 \| 3 (0.00034) \| 8772 \| 388 \| 509.07 \| 303.45 \| 1.36 \| 205.61 \| 59.611 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 \| 11984 \| 12 (0.00104) \| 11579 \| 393 \| 788.81 \| 155.66 \| 55.70 \| 633.15 \| 19.734 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 \| 13425 \| 23 (0.00177) \| 12978 \| 424 \| 1741.64 \| 1293.49 \| 48.30 \| 448.14 \| 74.269 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 \| 16737 \| 70 (0.00428) \| 16293 \| 374 \| 1905.74 \| 2658.74 \| 13.16 \| -752.99 \| 139.512 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 \| 23562 \| 170 (0.00743) \| 22725 \| 667 \| 3822.22 \| 3466.41 \| 9.94 \| 355.81 \| 90.691 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 \| 68793 \| 1062 (0.01553) \| 67304 \| 427 \| 17066.38 \| 14216.63 \| 1.90 \| 2849.74 \| 83.302 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 \| 19315 \| 457 (0.02409) \| 18512 \| 346 \| 5987.50 \| 6247.51 \| 15.06 \| -260.00 \| 104.343 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 \| 40422 \| 1264 (0.03156) \| 38784 \| 374 \| 15312.90 \| 13844.60 \| 9.30 \| 1468.29 \| 90.411 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 \| 21220 \| 965 (0.04637) \| 19848 \| 407 \| 8196.73 \| 9316.36 \| 25.08 \| -1119.63 \| 113.660 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 \| 28110 \| 1713 (0.06173) \| 26038 \| 359 \| 6034.37 \| 5482.18 \| 31.25 \| 552.19 \| 90.849 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 \| 31205 \| 2892 (0.09382) \| 27933 \| 380 \| 12132.65 \| 12811.22 \| 7.11 \| -678.57 \| 105.593 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 \| 128517 \| 15764 (0.12306) \| 112333 \| 420 \| 42120.76 \| 41016.27 \| 100.13 \| 1104.49 \| 97.378 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 \| 46626 \| 8585 (0.18575) \| 37632 \| 409 \| 40289.28 \| 39457.71 \| 114.63 \| 831.56 \| 97.936 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 \| 151991 \| 36908 (0.24354) \| 114637 \| 446 \| 122300.38 \| 120182.04 \| 617.01 \| 2118.34 \| 98.268 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 \| 122219 \| 44837 (0.36827) \| 76914 \| 468 \| 131731.46 \| 128285.89 \| 212.83 \| 3445.56 \| 97.384 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 \| 802815 \| 391645 (0.48864) \| 409852 \| 1318 \| 513275.48 \| 505834.26 \| 2923.84 \| 7441.22 \| 98.550 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 \| 340471 \| 169601 (0.49925) \| 170110 \| 760 \| 352808.08 \| 343211.29 \| 5320.05 \| 9596.79 \| 97.280 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 \| 231645 \| 170083 (0.73580) \| 61070 \| 492 \| 228567.52 \| 223218.37 \| 5454.73 \| 5349.14 \| 97.660 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 \| 40412 \| 31847 (0.79538) \| 8193 \| 372 \| 44673.02 \| 44641.56 \| 1187.09 \| 31.45 \| 99.930 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 \| 31004 \| 26224 (0.85764) \| 4353 \| 427 \| 43682.70 \| 43057.51 \| 400.11 \| 625.18 \| 98.569 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 \| 36243 \| 32850 (0.91629) \| 3001 \| 392 \| 46532.57 \| 46336.03 \| 0.06 \| 196.53 \| 99.578 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 \| 11338 \| 10532 (0.98118) \| 202 \| 604 \| 21158.92 \| 20814.23 \| 239.39 \| 344.69 \| 98.371 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) \| 2233436 \| 910607 \| 1309726 \| 13103 \| 521340.26 \| 510349.47 \| 186.54 \| 10990.78 \| 97.892 big (bets >= 4 BTC) \| 74931 \| 36904 \| 37761 \| 266 \| 1140171.36 \| 1115682.46 \| 16723.70 \| 24488.89 \| 97.852 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \| 2308367 \| 947511 \| 1347487 \| 13369 \| 1661511.62 \| 1626031.94 \| 16910.24 \| 35479.68 \| 97.865 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SD Profit before fees: 35479.68478723 BTC (2.135%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1503.30617500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 33976.37861223 BTC (2.045%) Pending Liabilities: 239.22900002 BTC Final SD Profit: 33737.14961221 BTC (2.031%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7568906 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4244116 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 3223.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 1742.6 (54.1%)

9549

Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Solve a riddle, guess a 4 char password and add 10 BTC to your xmas stocking!

on: December 28, 2012, 08:51:03 AM

Quote from: K1773R on December 28, 2012, 08:48:30 AM

Quote from: sveetsnelda on December 28, 2012, 08:47:03 AM

what was the four char password?

dunno, the gpg passphrase is 41087438dbac5b77c3922cbe1f4d2f529ae3a4eb96a7534e4803361f1437f7e7

So was one of the 'equations' I PM'ed you a couple of days ago right? I'm a bit confused by your new PM. You seem to be suggesting that one of them was right but that you didn't test it at the time?

Quote from: dooglus on December 27, 2012, 05:20:42 AM

Quote from: K1773R on December 27, 2012, 12:55:10 AM

For those who dont have enough hashing power, u can send me patterns per PM and il test em, if they match u get a portion of the 10BTC (going to distribute it fair to all who helped, including me).

Here are a few to try:

Code:

password="${password}+${password}=2${password}@L3AsT"
password="${password}+${password}=2.${password}@L3AsT"
password="${password}+${password}=2*${password}@L3AsT"
password="${password}+${password}=2x${password}@L3AsT"
password="${password}+${password}=2 ${password}@L3AsT"
password="${password}+${password}=2 . ${password}@L3AsT"
password="${password}+${password}=2 * ${password}@L3AsT"
password="${password}+${password}=2 x ${password}@L3AsT"
password="${password}+${password}=2${password}(at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2.${password}(at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2*${password}(at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2x${password}(at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2 ${password}(at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2 . ${password}(at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2 * ${password}(at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2 x ${password}(at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2${password} (at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2.${password} (at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2*${password} (at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2x${password} (at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2 ${password} (at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2 . ${password} (at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2 * ${password} (at least)"
password="${password}+${password}=2 x ${password} (at least)"

9550

Economy / Gambling / Re: luckco.in, the social bitcoin casino | free credits, prog. jackpots & contests!

on: December 27, 2012, 09:39:55 PM

Quote from: abrkn on December 27, 2012, 08:23:34 PM I'm currently seeding jackpots very high to attract new customers. At some point this will no longer be unnecessary as the users will increase the jackpots quickly themselves. Back to my question, how can a referral scheme reward real users inviting real friends and not reward abusers? I don't think it can. There's no way you can tell whether the people I'm referring are real friends and not just new accounts I made myself. I've been on the wrong end of this before, referring friends in good faith and being accused of being a liar as a result. I referred 2 or 3 people, encouraged them to make deposits, and got myself banned as a result because the site operator thought the people were all just copies of myself. I guess it's a tough call trying to decide who's legit and who isn't, and it's easy to get it wrong. But it looks bad when you do.

9551

Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Solve a riddle, guess a 4 char password and add 10 BTC to your xmas stocking!

on: December 27, 2012, 09:31:17 PM

Quote from: CIYAM Pty. Ltd. on December 27, 2012, 03:29:22 PM EDIT: Oops I thought that would add to the bounty but apparently it didn't (I guess Bitcoin sent the output to the input) Yes, the client chose the best-fitting output for your new payment and it just so happened that the same 10 BTC you sent the first time was the best fit for the second payment, so it re-sent the same 10 BTC output again.

9552

Economy / Gambling / Re: luckco.in, the social bitcoin casino | free credits, prog. jackpots & contests!

on: December 27, 2012, 07:26:12 PM

Quote from: abrkn on December 27, 2012, 12:46:30 AM I've been asked about referral programs. How do you guys feel about this? I think it's a good idea, but I don't know how you would afford to pay it given that your games already have such a tiny (often negative) edge anyway.

9553

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: December 27, 2012, 07:23:23 PM

Quote txid:n block date game (lucky - result ) address stake payout profit cumulative profit ------------------ ------ ------------------ ------ ----- --------- ---------------------------------- ----- ------ ------ ----------------- 31f863350a52231f:0 213417 01:56:49 Dec-24-12 <32768 (11722 - WIN ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah 250.00 489.25 239.25 239.25 8f8d7d31840f8835:0 213893 11:02:23 Dec-27-12 <32768 ( 3304 - WIN ) 1GD9QxvZKRqrw7Eu9b6aJxPGiqBcqo7kCT 0.20 0.39 0.19 239.44 ----- ----- ----- 250.20 489.64 239.44 Total of 2 bets unaccounted for. Results: 2012-Dec-27 11:07am (up to block 213893) Address Target Should Win \| #Bets \| Win \| Lose \| Refunds \| BTC In \| BTC Out \| Refund \| Profit \| RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 \| 58739 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 57745 \| 994 \| 461.44 \| 0.01 \| 73.78 \| 461.42 \| 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 \| 3084 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 2593 \| 491 \| 44.40 \| 0.00 \| 15.23 \| 44.39 \| 0.008 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 \| 4794 \| 1 (0.00023) \| 4378 \| 415 \| 61.04 \| 159.96 \| 7.44 \| -98.91 \| 262.034 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 \| 6693 \| 2 (0.00032) \| 6276 \| 415 \| 97.75 \| 16.08 \| 7.01 \| 81.66 \| 16.458 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 \| 7402 \| 1 (0.00014) \| 6995 \| 406 \| 195.21 \| 4.34 \| 18.65 \| 190.86 \| 2.227 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 \| 9154 \| 3 (0.00034) \| 8763 \| 388 \| 507.28 \| 303.45 \| 1.36 \| 203.83 \| 59.819 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 \| 11916 \| 12 (0.00104) \| 11511 \| 393 \| 787.99 \| 155.66 \| 55.70 \| 632.33 \| 19.754 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 \| 13387 \| 23 (0.00177) \| 12941 \| 423 \| 1740.79 \| 1293.49 \| 48.30 \| 447.29 \| 74.305 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 \| 16727 \| 69 (0.00422) \| 16284 \| 374 \| 1905.54 \| 2651.99 \| 13.16 \| -746.45 \| 139.173 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 \| 23519 \| 170 (0.00744) \| 22682 \| 667 \| 3820.89 \| 3466.41 \| 9.94 \| 354.48 \| 90.722 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 \| 68404 \| 1054 (0.01551) \| 66924 \| 426 \| 16701.79 \| 14204.02 \| 1.90 \| 2497.77 \| 85.045 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 \| 19305 \| 457 (0.02410) \| 18502 \| 346 \| 5986.07 \| 6247.50 \| 15.06 \| -261.43 \| 104.367 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 \| 40094 \| 1253 (0.03155) \| 38467 \| 374 \| 14856.88 \| 13513.53 \| 9.30 \| 1343.35 \| 90.958 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 \| 21206 \| 964 (0.04635) \| 19835 \| 407 \| 8195.82 \| 9314.23 \| 25.08 \| -1118.40 \| 113.646 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 \| 28068 \| 1710 (0.06171) \| 25999 \| 359 \| 5811.54 \| 5224.27 \| 31.25 \| 587.27 \| 89.895 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 \| 31134 \| 2884 (0.09377) \| 27871 \| 379 \| 12128.79 \| 12806.28 \| 7.10 \| -677.49 \| 105.586 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 \| 126720 \| 15498 (0.12271) \| 110803 \| 419 \| 41165.49 \| 40190.38 \| 100.12 \| 975.11 \| 97.631 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 \| 44844 \| 8214 (0.18485) \| 36221 \| 409 \| 39016.94 \| 38114.08 \| 114.63 \| 902.85 \| 97.686 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 \| 148579 \| 36044 (0.24332) \| 112092 \| 443 \| 120659.59 \| 118914.50 \| 616.99 \| 1745.09 \| 98.554 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 \| 121103 \| 44444 (0.36841) \| 76193 \| 466 \| 130078.30 \| 126868.69 \| 212.81 \| 3209.60 \| 97.533 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 \| 798702 \| 389633 (0.48864) \| 407755 \| 1314 \| 510598.11 \| 503422.44 \| 2923.84 \| 7175.67 \| 98.595 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 \| 338371 \| 168548 (0.49923) \| 169065 \| 758 \| 350809.84 \| 341676.86 \| 5320.05 \| 9132.97 \| 97.397 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 \| 230040 \| 168919 (0.73587) \| 60630 \| 491 \| 228057.11 \| 222712.54 \| 5454.73 \| 5344.56 \| 97.656 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 \| 39894 \| 31440 (0.79535) \| 8090 \| 364 \| 44372.57 \| 44332.35 \| 1187.08 \| 40.22 \| 99.909 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 \| 30781 \| 26045 (0.85799) \| 4311 \| 425 \| 43506.38 \| 42875.17 \| 400.11 \| 631.20 \| 98.549 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 \| 35803 \| 32447 (0.91625) \| 2966 \| 390 \| 46264.93 \| 46065.70 \| 0.05 \| 199.22 \| 99.569 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 \| 11318 \| 10518 (0.98116) \| 202 \| 598 \| 21144.90 \| 20800.16 \| 239.37 \| 344.74 \| 98.370 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) \| 2215394 \| 903575 \| 1298751 \| 13068 \| 518570.08 \| 507641.72 \| 186.45 \| 10928.35 \| 97.893 big (bets >= 4 BTC) \| 74387 \| 36778 \| 37343 \| 266 \| 1130407.42 \| 1107692.48 \| 16723.70 \| 22714.94 \| 97.991 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \| 2289781 \| 940353 \| 1336094 \| 13334 \| 1648977.51 \| 1615334.21 \| 16910.15 \| 33643.30 \| 97.960 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SD Profit before fees: 33643.30297189 BTC (2.040%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1484.70427500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 32158.59869689 BTC (1.950%) Pending Liabilities: 239.44040000 BTC Final SD Profit: 31919.15829689 BTC (1.936%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7520035 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4212983 (56.0%) Blockchain MB: 3202.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 1729.1 (54.0%)

9554

Economy / Gambling / Re: luckco.in, the social bitcoin casino | free credits, prog. jackpots & contests!

on: December 26, 2012, 10:34:42 PM

Here's a screenshot from the winner of the jackpot: Quote from: medji on December 26, 2012, 10:28:04 PM Thats that we folks call a royal flush.

9555

Economy / Gambling / Re: luckco.in, the social bitcoin casino | free credits, prog. jackpots & contests!

on: December 26, 2012, 10:20:40 PM

The jackpot was won at last!

9556

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: December 26, 2012, 07:16:09 PM

Quote from: Bugpowder on December 26, 2012, 06:36:17 PM While the payout issue caused the spikes earlier in the month, I was watching the Dec 24th spike as it happened, and it was real. Oh yes, of course. Otherwise the report on the 24th would have mentioned the large pending liability.

9557

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: December 26, 2012, 07:13:07 PM

Quote txid:n block date game (lucky - result ) address stake payout profit ------------------ ------ ------------------ ------ ----- --------- ---------------------------------- ----- ------ ------ 31f863350a52231f:0 213417 01:56:49 Dec-24-12 <32768 (11722 - WIN ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah 250.00 489.25 239.25 Total of 6 bets unaccounted for. Results: 2012-Dec-26 10:40am (up to block 213731) Address Target Should Win \| #Bets \| Win \| Lose \| Refunds \| BTC In \| BTC Out \| Refund \| Profit \| RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 \| 58376 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 57386 \| 990 \| 456.90 \| 0.01 \| 73.67 \| 456.88 \| 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 \| 3083 \| 0 (0.00000) \| 2593 \| 490 \| 44.40 \| 0.00 \| 15.23 \| 44.39 \| 0.008 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 \| 4786 \| 1 (0.00023) \| 4371 \| 414 \| 60.87 \| 159.96 \| 7.44 \| -99.08 \| 262.783 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 \| 6670 \| 2 (0.00032) \| 6255 \| 413 \| 96.99 \| 16.08 \| 7.01 \| 80.90 \| 16.587 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 \| 7316 \| 1 (0.00014) \| 6909 \| 406 \| 193.48 \| 4.34 \| 18.65 \| 189.14 \| 2.245 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 \| 9086 \| 3 (0.00034) \| 8695 \| 388 \| 504.75 \| 303.44 \| 1.36 \| 201.30 \| 60.118 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 \| 11783 \| 11 (0.00097) \| 11380 \| 392 \| 786.34 \| 145.66 \| 55.70 \| 640.68 \| 18.525 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 \| 13336 \| 23 (0.00178) \| 12890 \| 423 \| 1738.02 \| 1293.48 \| 48.30 \| 444.53 \| 74.423 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 \| 16722 \| 69 (0.00422) \| 16279 \| 374 \| 1904.87 \| 2651.99 \| 13.16 \| -747.11 \| 139.221 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 \| 23511 \| 170 (0.00744) \| 22674 \| 667 \| 3820.26 \| 3466.41 \| 9.94 \| 353.85 \| 90.737 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 \| 67578 \| 1042 (0.01552) \| 66110 \| 426 \| 16624.64 \| 14134.57 \| 1.90 \| 2490.06 \| 85.022 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 \| 19296 \| 457 (0.02411) \| 18494 \| 345 \| 5985.51 \| 6247.50 \| 15.05 \| -261.99 \| 104.377 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 \| 39487 \| 1233 (0.03152) \| 37880 \| 374 \| 14733.65 \| 13444.67 \| 9.30 \| 1288.98 \| 91.251 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 \| 21192 \| 964 (0.04638) \| 19822 \| 406 \| 8194.11 \| 9314.23 \| 25.08 \| -1120.11 \| 113.670 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 \| 27193 \| 1648 (0.06141) \| 25186 \| 359 \| 5670.31 \| 5077.04 \| 31.25 \| 593.27 \| 89.537 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 \| 31030 \| 2872 (0.09370) \| 27780 \| 378 \| 12118.50 \| 12794.21 \| 7.10 \| -675.71 \| 105.576 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 \| 125722 \| 15364 (0.12261) \| 109939 \| 419 \| 40422.50 \| 39362.29 \| 100.12 \| 1060.20 \| 97.377 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 \| 43905 \| 8027 (0.18455) \| 35469 \| 409 \| 38782.40 \| 37647.21 \| 114.63 \| 1135.19 \| 97.073 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 \| 147438 \| 35758 (0.24326) \| 111239 \| 441 \| 120335.32 \| 118328.43 \| 616.98 \| 2006.88 \| 98.332 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 \| 120072 \| 44062 (0.36839) \| 75546 \| 464 \| 129395.78 \| 125968.34 \| 212.81 \| 3427.44 \| 97.351 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 \| 795384 \| 388050 (0.48868) \| 406023 \| 1311 \| 508966.34 \| 501668.36 \| 2923.83 \| 7297.98 \| 98.566 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 \| 335323 \| 167024 (0.49922) \| 167543 \| 756 \| 349197.77 \| 339801.02 \| 5320.04 \| 9396.75 \| 97.309 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 \| 228160 \| 167546 (0.73592) \| 60124 \| 490 \| 227513.79 \| 222176.73 \| 5454.73 \| 5337.06 \| 97.654 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 \| 39251 \| 30936 (0.79547) \| 7954 \| 361 \| 44021.21 \| 43987.02 \| 1187.07 \| 34.18 \| 99.922 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 \| 30457 \| 25758 (0.85769) \| 4274 \| 425 \| 43433.64 \| 42805.04 \| 400.11 \| 628.59 \| 98.553 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 \| 35213 \| 31903 (0.91615) \| 2920 \| 390 \| 45691.07 \| 45496.60 \| 0.05 \| 194.46 \| 99.574 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 \| 11282 \| 10485 (0.98110) \| 202 \| 595 \| 21118.99 \| 20774.15 \| 239.36 \| 344.84 \| 98.367 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) \| 2198492 \| 896745 \| 1288707 \| 13040 \| 515392.39 \| 504484.67 \| 186.28 \| 10907.71 \| 97.884 big (bets >= 4 BTC) \| 74160 \| 36664 \| 37230 \| 266 \| 1126420.14 \| 1102584.24 \| 16723.70 \| 23835.90 \| 97.884 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \| 2272652 \| 933409 \| 1325937 \| 13306 \| 1641812.53 \| 1607068.91 \| 16909.99 \| 34743.61 \| 97.884 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SD Profit before fees: 34743.61948668 BTC (2.116%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1467.55857500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 33276.06091168 BTC (2.027%) Pending Liabilities: 240.24491619 BTC Final SD Profit: 33035.81599549 BTC (2.012%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7476258 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4182788 (55.9%) Blockchain MB: 3182.9 : SatoshiDice MB: 1716.3 (53.9%)

9558

Economy / Gambling / Re: XAVOA - Online Bitcoin Casino

on: December 26, 2012, 06:44:47 PM

Hey, nice work on making the game provably fair now! One thing that's a little annoying is I'm not allowed to put spaces into the client seed. Or question marks, exclamation marks, etc. People like to use client seeds like "let me win!!!" for example.

9559

Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

on: December 26, 2012, 06:07:43 PM

Quote from: JWU42 on December 26, 2012, 04:42:02 PM Big spike there in your 24th report and then back down a bit. The trend continues upward, however... I suspect the spike isn't real, but is a result of the way that SatoshiDice sometimes pays out losing bets faster than it pays out big winning bets, so it looks like they've made a big profit but really they just have a bunch of pending liabilities. At some point I'll fix the graph so that pending liabilities are taken into account.

9560

Economy / Gambling / Re: luckco.in, the social bitcoin casino | free credits, prog. jackpots & contests!

on: December 26, 2012, 03:37:33 AM

Quote from: jcortez1594 on December 25, 2012, 11:13:03 PM So close never been dealt JQKA same suit on first deal before. I've only seen that once and I've played thousands of hands trying to win the jackpot. Be aware that you only get the jackpot if you're playing for 5 chips per hand by the way...

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