Ого, на кону квартира в российском городе-миллионнике не буду опережать события - 3000$, круто. Точно поучаствую, так как судя по результатам предыдущего конкурса видно, что победителем может стать далеко не самый талантливый участник )) |
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A dice bet on 1.01 is "safer" to me than a football bet on 1.01 or any sports actually. OR even 1.1x on dice you are for sure getting a chance of almost 90% to win, whereas in football these 1.1x odds are never 9 out of 10 games, just always a draw to kill you when you least expect it. Which is why I never go below 1.5x in football (where even that is not easy).
Yes, that's true. I noticed that at extremely low odds (as well as at extremely high odds), the "honesty" of the results is lost. This is probably because many betters like "reliable" bets and bookmakers give unfairly low odds - that is, instead of 1.1 they give 1.05, etc. The same happens at extremely high odds - instead of 70, bookmakers give only 50, and so on. Really fair odds with fair bookmaker margins can only be found in the middle range. |
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I'm not sure that Fury is technically superior to Usyk, but he is very much superior to him in physical strength. I can well imagine that Usyk will box with Fury on equal terms (and it seems to me that Usyk is faster than Fury), but I can hardly imagine that Usyk will be able to keep Fury away for all 12 rounds and prevent him from delivering his crushing blows.
The thing is I think Usyk despite being technical, doesn't carry the same knockout threat, and outboxing Joshua isn't exactly a massive achievement, in a technical way at least. Joshua isn't technical, and hes never been a traditional boxer like Usky, instead he won his fights because of his power. Now, ever since he was dropped by Ruiz, hes backed away from fire fights, which has been his undoing. He seems to lack that confidence he once had. If Joshua gets that back, I see him beating Usyk, but he will absolutely not out box him. Same with Fury, except I believe Fury could match him toe to toe in a technical boxing match. Another problem is that if Usyk outboxes Joshua without a knockout, then everyone will take it for granted because in the first fight he destroyed Joshua and the result of the fight was impossible to dispute. But if Usyk can "survive" the entire fight against Fury and even be ahead "on fair points", then he will not be given the victory because the challenger must be clearly stronger than the champion. As for Whyte, if he manages to pull off a victory against Fury he will have to beat him twice (after the rematch) to have a chance of fighting the winner of the Usyk vs Joshua rematch. Heavyweight boxing is looking a little more exciting these days  If Fury really loses these two fights (it will already take at least a year) and Wilder has time to return to business, then with any outcome of the Usyk-Joshua fight, the situation will again become as confused as possible. It would be really epic and interesting. |
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Italy's defeat against North Mecodonia was completely unexpected. North Macedonia was not a strong opponent. Nevertheless, they showed us surprise and were able to win 1-0 against Italy. The next match against Turkey is not an important match. Yet I think Italy will want to win this match. After a humiliating defeat against Macedonia, the win could give their spectators some peace of mind.
It is difficult to predict how the defeat from Macedonia will affect the Italian team. As you wrote, this is an unimportant match, so there may be problems with motivation and, as a result, a draw or even a defeat. But most likely a draw, since the Turkish national team is also in an incomprehensible state and it is difficult to expect a game from it with full dedication. |
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I also saw information that Usyk is starting to train. It will not be easy for him to train now, he was in the ranks of the Ukrainian army and defended his country along with the soldiers. Psychologically, it can be difficult to train when you know that the wor is still going on in your country and civilians are dying every day. But he is a professional and understands that he must defend his title.
Yes, I saw this news too. I understand that he is a professional and to some extent the war will give him motivation (to support the country and maybe earn more money to financially support the country), but it is so difficult for me to imagine his psychological state. Even now it is very difficult for me to break away from the endless stream of terrible news and get down to work. It is even harder for him because he was directly in the war and his work (upcoming fight) requires maximum concentration. |
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Most sites are just stirring up some fake news so I think it is started by one of these kind.
Yes. The French and Spanish media seem to be giving completely contradictory information. While the French L'Equipe reported the sensational news on Thursday that Barcelona had joined the race for the world's most sought-after striker, Mundo Deportivo, via its sources at Barca, reports that "there has been no contact with Mbappe". It is very difficult to navigate the news, half of which journalists most likely just invent. Today I read the news that Haaland has turned down an offer from Manchester City and is waiting for Real Madrid to make a better offer. I don’t even want to talk about the “saga” with Mbappe - it seems that it is endless. I hope that he will soon sign a contract and all these endless conversations will stop. |
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Когда я вижу приписку "курс пляшет" и потом цены указанные с точностью до копейки, поневоле закрадываются сомнения в надежности (и существовании) поставщика.
Ничего личного просто ремарка.
Краем уха слышал об увеличении порога беспошлинного ввоза обратно до 1000 долларов (или евро), это уже ввели или нет? Т.е. получается что теоретически с CU можно по хорошим ценам будет покупать (когда логистика восстановится какая-то)?
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An average person trying to imitate the rich is as old as time itself, it is just that this is even more prominent in this age as people are more aware than ever of all the things that those that are rich and famous are doing, still as long as people gamble responsibly this is not a problem, the issue comes when people try to gamble more what they can afford to lose and then they try to blame the casinos for their losses when it was them the ones that were irresponsible in the management of their money.
I have never heard of such a thing )) If average people imitate someone, then rather those who got the money in a relatively easy way. Even a cursory glance at Drake's biography is enough to understand that he is not "just a lucky guy" but one who has worked all his life and continues to do so even after he has achieved success. I agree with you about shifting responsibility, this is really common for all people (not just gamblers). Few people are ready to say: it was my mistake, I am to blame. Usually they look for any other reason just to not admit own mistakes. |
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Why only 3 teams while Juventus is also still have the chance to win the Scudetto? The gap between Juventus and Milan is 7 only while there are still 8 matches remaining, so mathematically the chance for Juventus is still open especially if they can win against Inter next month. Serie A is a league with full of surprise, big teams may lose some points against mediocre teams. I think we will need to wait till the last round to know the real winner of Serie A this season. After so many years seeing Serie A dominated by single team only, this season looks better since it is tougher now.
There are three clubs ahead of Juventus, it is almost impossible that all three clubs will play worse than Juventus. At the moment they have more points than Juventus which means they are playing better. One club can (albeit with a small probability) get into the black stripe, but not three at once. That is why the chances of Juventus for the championship are so low (if I'm not mistaken, it's about 10% in terms of bookmakers). |
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I agree that he is almost guaranteed to beat anybody, that is hard to disagree with because his biggest threat was from Wilder but Fury demolished him twice. Joshua will probably be defeated by Usyk if the rematch goes ahead in June 2022.
Whether Fury fights Usyk or Joshua for the unified heavyweight belts, as far as I am concerned he will win because he is too superior a fighter, he is on a completely different level of fighting and technicality to his opponents.
I'm not sure that Fury is technically superior to Usyk, but he is very much superior to him in physical strength. I can well imagine that Usyk will box with Fury on equal terms (and it seems to me that Usyk is faster than Fury), but I can hardly imagine that Usyk will be able to keep Fury away for all 12 rounds and prevent him from delivering his crushing blows. |
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I think this is normal behavior although it looks provocative. He understands that their chance of beating Portugal is zero, but there is no reason before the match to stop being happy that they were able to get to this stage. In fact, they have already done more than anyone could have imagined with regard to them. The departure of Italy is certainly shocking. And it's shocking how it happened - everyone was preparing for the tragedy in the match Portugal - Italy (one of the great teams does not get to the World Cup), but the tragedy happened unexpectedly earlier. |
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I'm very contented with the current look of the standings. It would have been really boring to see Manchester City becoming the champions without a problem. Now Liverpool are only one point away from them. And I feel like that they aren't going to lose any points until the game between them in the near future. And that game is going to be really hard to make a prediction certainly. Because even though it is going to be in Etihad, Liverpool can win that game too. They are already in a much better shape now.
It's good that after the pause in the championship caused by the national teams, both clubs will play two very easy games: Liverpool against Watford, and Manchester City against Burnley. This will allow the players of both clubs to “return” to the EPL after the matches of the national teams (including psychologically, because someone will be very disappointed with the results) and both teams will play the match on April 10 in optimal shape. |
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The Ghanian side should not be underated, likewise the Nigerian side with very many quality players plus a team that did well in the just concluded AFCON. It seems the Ghanian midfielder Majeed Ashimeru
may not play in the game due to injury, it will be a big disappointment for him and the black stars especially since he was just voted as "player of the month" for his club side. Edmund Addo, a midfielder for the black side has been ruled out as well due to injury, there's still Partey though for the black stars who is in top form. For the super eagles, the only person i know will not future is the our goalie from the AFCON Maduka Okoye, he will be replaced with John Noble who is also a very good choice. There are many Nigerian players that i will love to see their performance at the world cup level against bigger teams, i sincerely hope the Super eagles qualify for the world cup.
Judging by the odds offered by the bookmakers at the moment, these two teams are valued equally: 2,60 - 2,95 - 2,80 Ghana is a slight favorite due to being played at home. It is very difficult to say who will be the winner in this pair, but it seems to me that based on the games in the African Cup, you can bet that not both teams will score in this game. |
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I think that Leipzig, Atalanta and West Ham are the only teams that can put up a big fight against Barcelona in the Europa League right now. I don't expect Frankfurt to be able to do too big things against Barcelona. Maybe they can keep Barcelona at a favorable level but they wouldn't do much against Barcelona in Camp Nou. And in case Barcelona eliminate Frankfurt, they are going to have matchup against the victor of the West Ham v Lyon one. And most probably, it'd be West Ham.
Frankfurt, frightened by the latest results of Barcelona, will play in a deep defense and maybe they can repeat the result of Galatasaray - a draw at the Camp Nou. I see that Barcelona play well in "open" football like with Real Madrid, but it is very difficult against teams that park the bus at their penalty area. With good discipline, Frankfurt has a chance to survive until the penalty shoot-out and then the outcome of the confrontation will be determined by chance. |
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I think that the most interesting game of the day is Portugal - Turkey. In fact, Portugal are very highly favourite team here but I still don't think that it is going to be an easy-peasy game for them. Turkey were doing well in their last games with their new manager. If they keep that level at least and even improve it more, then they could make difficulties for Portugal in this game. It seems like Cristiano Ronaldo is playing in this one definitely so his performance is going to be very crucial for his team's success in this round. I think Portugal will eliminate Turkey but it will be by a small goal gap.
The final score will depend on how the events in the match will develop. If Turkey comes forward they will try to play completely defensively and then we can see 1-0 or 1-1 in regular time. If Portugal scores the first goal, then Turkey will have to take risks and go forward, then we can see the score 4-0, 4-1 and more. In any case, although it will be an interesting match, others (except where Italy plays) look more competitive. |
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1. The theoretical possibility is one thing, the practical implementation is another. I showed a theoretical possibility. And in fact, arbitrage opportunities are not fleeting phenomena at all - for example, if you bet a week before the event, then you will most likely have the opportunity (long in time) to make an arbitrage counter-bet. If this opportunity does not appear, then you can wait for the start of a sporting event and catch such a bet in live mode.
2. The problem of the presence or absence of the necessary bankroll does not cancel the fact that there is an opportunity to make arbitrage bets.
I do not see a fundamental difference in risk, since at a distance (as I showed in the calculations in the first post), from the point of view of mathematics, such bets are equivalent to classical arbitrage.
You're right for 1. Theoretically, there is nothing different when it comes to EV and yes I do agree that some arbitrage opportunities can be long-lasting, but these are definitely rarer to come by. I disagree with your second point however. There is an inherent difference between a surebet (which returns you a profit, without risk) and what you've shown. Yes, EV is positive but you have significant variance in your outcomes. You always have a non-zero risk of losing all your bankroll with this. In the second point, a significant difference from arbitrage betting can be recognized that in certain segments the deposit will decrease, this is a fact. But I do not agree that there is a risk of losing the entire deposit - the minimum bankroll management (such as allocating no more than 10% of the deposit to the bet and adjusting the size of the bets depending on the remaining balance) protects you from this, and a positive EV ensures its growth over a distance. |
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It makes no sense (in serious games and tournaments) because computer analysis quickly reveals the use of third-party programs. Strange as it may seem, the player's chess behavior is very easy to predict, and if he "suddenly" starts to play better than his level, this immediately attracts attention.
But what if the player uses third-party programs from the very beginning? Then the computer will not be able to notice the change in the player's behavior and determine that his level of play has changed. The computer will perceive this as normal chess player behavior. Firstly, all strong chess players from the very beginning of their careers play in live tournaments where cheating is as complicated as possible, almost unrealistic. Secondly, even if you cheat all your life, you will be caught on the fact that your analysis is statistically too close (unlike other players) to the computer one. In addition, if a player plays games as first lines of chess engines, then he automatically receives a ban on almost all chess sites.
This surprises me a little. Chess engine programs are written by people and loaded into it with standard moves, combinations, debuts, that is, everything that was used or is used by chess players. Any average chess player can use one of these options, but this does not mean that he is a cheater and there is no reason to ban him. You are probably far from the world of chess and from computer analysis. Firstly, modern chess engines are neural networks that have learned themselves and have nothing to do with "learning" from people. Programs written by people still exist, but this is the previous generation. Secondly, computer programs offer such moves that ordinary "protein" players have not even dreamed of, this is easy to identify. |
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