This is what everybody is thinking and it’s what makes me question whether or not it will happen. Everyone expects bitcoin to make a new ATH shortly after the halving.

However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.

Even if the network is empty and there are no pending transaction, it’s hard to predict when your transaction will confirm.

Sure the average is 10 minutes but sometimes it can take up to 40 minutes and other times it can take less than 5 minutes.

This is where ETH is better because if you pay enough in fees you know it will confirm within 1 minute for sure. With bitcoin you never know. Could take even an hour if the variance is bad.

I remember when bitcoin was $50K. I found some old wallets with like 0.00015BTC or 0.00025BTC and I decided after like 8 years to finally spend this dust.

When bitcoin was $200. I would just round the balances because it was worth very little back then so if I had 1.00015 BTC, I would just send the 1 BTC because it wasn’t worth typing in the rest since it was worth like a penny.

Even did this with ETH and LTC which also exploded in price.

Yeah you gotta becareful with this. If this was 12 words I think someone was able to crack it with their computer but with 24 words it’s going to take forever to get the correct order. If you lose the second part then it will be gone  forever.

You need to just give it to your loved one and trust that they won’t steal anything from you. Because you are making this very complicated and they might not understand computers as well as you and they will have issues getting to the funds.

I think the criteria will be similar to what arb did for its airdrop. Another factor can be they check other chains such as Ethereum if the address has been active or if it’s a new address. So if someone is farming they usually won’t do anything on the Ethereum network. And what happens is they might be disqualified or their score reduced as a result.

However many users might not use Ethereum for many reasons. One being it’s expensive to perform transactions on ETH. So they might check other chains like ARB or Poly and check for activity. If there is no activity then there is a high chance it’s a farmer.

Only tip I can give you is this.

If bitcoin is rising and all your friends and family are talking about it. You go outside and you see people looking at the bitcoin price on TradingView. Your Uber driver is trading and driving at the same time. You got people selling their homes to buy bitcoin. It means it’s time to Sell. It works almost every time at predicting a top.

Predicting the bottom is when bitcoin doesn’t move and everyone thinks it’s dead, like right now actually. Usually this means it bottomed and should rally from here on out.

I remember back in 2016-17 or so when I was actually more convinced he might be satoshi because he was going to prove it by signing a message from a certain address and then last minute he got cold feet and said something along the lines of “i cannot do it”. I got mixed feelings about him and figured maybe he just doesn’t want the added risk of being a target which you own over billions of bitcoin.

However years later and especially how that BSV turned out, I knew 100% he definitely cannot be the real satoshi.   I remeber there was a photo of him standing next to a Lambo. Then turns out that Lambo was a rental. The real satoshi wouldn’t do this.

Very strange it seems every month there is some DCA thread on bitcointalk.

DCA works but generally if you are unlucky and buy during the peak or DCA sell during the bottom then it won’t work out best for you.

It’s best to spread it apart, maybe few months apart. That way you aren’t like the El Salvador president who bought bitcoin near the peak and has still a long way until he breaks even. Same with Saylor. Bought large amounts near the peak and still hasn’t broken even.

Maybe post the transaction so we can look into it.

Perhaps you downloaded some fake app which has a wallet which is compromised. And as soon as it receives a payment it’s sent elsewhere.

Did the transaction confirm? Maybe they did a double spend but this is rare.

It would be interesting if they published the sales stats for year 2021 as that’s when people were still hoarding GPUs for Ethereum mining. In H2 2022, after ETH went POS, sales were already declining. So if we could see the H1 2022 and H2 2021 then it would paint a better picture into how many sales were lost.

And yes, Nvidia stock price has nothing to do with GPU sales, it’s mostly due to AI which has made stocks go to crazy highs.

Most real traders don’t care about passive income from referrals. How many Wall Street traders do you see who are publishing their affiliate links to make an extra 1%.

The ones who spam their affiliate link usually do it because they want free money for doing nothing. They pretend to trade or trade with small units and trick people into think they are some great traders.
Happens all the time in almost all markets.

Back when I used a new trader I got like 4 monitors and couldn’t make any money trading. Now I can trade from my phone and make good trades.

You don’t need many monitors like they do in the Wall Street movies. It helps to have at least 2 so you don’t need to look back and forth between windows. However if you don’t know what you are doing in the first place then having 10 monitors won’t help you at all.

All these sites do is check how many transactions, how large these transaction were, how many, how many bridges, how many different smart contracts you used and how often you made these transactions. You can basically check this yourself.

Every airdrop is different and we won’t know what the criteria will be. One new method to eliminate Sybil is to check if the address was used on the Ethereum network. If it wasn’t used at all then it has a high chance of being labeled an airdrop farmer.

Another thing that I just remembered from that movie is that they were all early to short the housing market. I remember there was a scene when they finally were into their short trade but the markets still kept going up. Every day they were going up. They were confused and upset. They called the markets being manipulated.

Then eventually it all came crashing down. It was easy to predict when it would happen. So even if the bubble will pop, it will be very difficult to predict the exact moment. Look at the Canadian housing bubble we got for like 2 decades pretty much.

The fed also wants the unemployment to increase because it’s one of the main causes of inflation. When you got labor shortages you need to pay your workers more. But if you are forced to pay your workers more you need to increase your prices. Hence why inflation goes up.

Another issue is productivity. The workers productivity is lower and hence why it takes longer to do certain jobs. With labor shortages the employers can’t do much. They can’t fire the person because they work slow becuase they will get nothing done.

All these defi air drops are getting harder and harder to get and even if you qualify the amount you get won’t be that much.

Best was 2 years ago when all you had to do was use the service once and you would qualify. But all these account farmers made it more difficult and why we have these Sybil detection in place to combat that. Hence why it’s more work and you get less rewards if there is an actual airdrop.

Wasn’t there a thread like this posted last week. I remember replying with a similar solution when it comes to trading psychology.

There is an old book called “Trading in the Zone” and it’s not really for technical analysis but it will shape how you react when you are in a trade. It’s probably 2 decades old but it’s principles still apply today and to crypto markets also. You can find this book anywhere. You will read a little bit and you will be blown away how accurate it is.

The halving is not that far off. So it needs to start pumping soon. If the etf are approved then I can see this ignite this way.

When bitcoin pumps it can double within a span of a few weeks, so going to a new ATH is not unrealistic but currently we got no momentum. It just trades sideways for weeks. Hopefully it starts to move soon.

I played around with this in the past. There is no real way to profit here. When you are entering a trade like that it means that there are massive shorts and it can go against you alot before there is a short squeeze. So depending how early you enter can put you in massive negative PnL.

You got lucky but usually you would collect the fee and the trade would start to go against you. Some people close their position right after the funding fee. So seconds after you would see a dip since longs close.

How does the Thor work exactly? Does it have bitcoin and Ethereum on both networks and it just sends it to you when you make the bridge?

I am assuming the transaction fees for this aren’t cheap. Also what is the risk here exactly?  What guarantee do you have that you will get your transfer fulfilled?