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And which stocks get this lucky prop-up for nothing? Let me guess, Goldman?
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The dollar strengthened... Buy SDS if you're scared.
I would consider SH as an alternative. SDS is better for day traders or short-term shorts. Long-term, holding a double inverse is generally not a good idea because it tracks the index very poorly. |
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KBundy,
I think you're the only one that has a solid understanding of the stock market here on these forums. Props for posting the chart and for attempting to inject reason into this looney bin.
On a side note, P/E of financial stocks is so incredibly low now that they're the best buy of the 21st century, second only to March 2009 (I tripled my money in one day on Citigroup!). This, combined with great earnings, an improving job market, falling oil prices, and the simple fact that banks are far, FAR more capitalized than they were in the fall of 2008, should lead to a gentle bull market.
If you had your buy button ready last week, you should be sitting on 15-20% solid gains on financials right now. Bitcoin is still in the sub $10 crapper. I'm waiting for that supposed bitcoin price rally...
The S&P is still overvalued by historical standards. http://www.multpl.com/I know you're specifically talking about financials but for a bit broader spectrum, there's the chart. Had you been long financials yesterday and today you would have gave most of that gain back. Had you been short a few weeks ago you could've easily surpassed those gains. Hindsight is nice like that. I'll give you that the banks are better capitalized now than in 2008. I'm assuming we're talking about US banks. But the US is still on the cusp of a recession and soverign default is a very real concern for MULTIPLE European countries. That's enough to bring everything down, financials (as well as small cap, biotech, etc.) will be hit the hardest. I said it before on this board, the only bank I'm really looking at right now is WFC. And I think it will go cheaper so I'll wait. Then again I could be wrong, afterall, only one person on this board is apparently qualified to understand the stock market. |
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ty was right, gold has entered the blowoff parabola IMO and has broken up and out of the longterm trend channel. this IMO is a terminal ending pattern and screams caution. even if you're a bull you should be taking down some positions to profit just in case. thats prudent. the question is when will it break? this is when trading gets fun but also painful. gold is going straight up and that is a huge warning sign for me esp. in light of the carnage elsewhere. Yup gold has broken out of its longterm trend channel. I'm concerned. Lets say gold is at $1750 and you expect a 20% decline, so target is $1400. I would wait for the downtrend before going short. Even at $1700 you would capture 17.6% of the decline, a more than generous return by any metric (you could easily increase that return with leverage obviously). So you missed out on the top 2.4%, at least you didn't get steamrolled if gold trends higher. I know you're a fan of Mish although I'm not sure how long you've been following him. In the early days, Mish was predicting the housing bubble and subsequent pop before most. He was spot on with his analysis. Problem is he was YEARS early with that prediction. You can try to time the market perfectly but I find very few individuals who are able to do it successfully. And most who seem to be able to do so, will only tell you about the time they've predicted successfully and not all the times they've been burned. You've obviously done very well for yourself so I'm not trying to tell you how to invest your money but that's my investment stance. you're very wise. btw, i went long ERX and TNA yesterday but just closed them out for a nice profit. i hope you wrote those puts on WFC, up 7.60%?  i've followed Mish since 2006? he's good but kooky at times. i think he drinks. no guts no glory on this short which could be the one of a lifetime. don't try this at home!!! Nope didn't write the puts unfortunately. Was hoping for a spike in the VIX today or a decline in the market, neither of which happened. I did buy a bunch of LEAP calls on BAC yesterday @ $2. Sold 'em today for $2.25. 12.5% gain for a 1-day trade, yeah I can live with that.  BAC scares the crap out of me but short-term it looked really oversold so I rolled the dice. I probably should have held longer but I'm leaving for Vegas tomorrow so I don't really want to worry about the market, plus making trades while drunk is only going to end up in trouble. |
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ty was right, gold has entered the blowoff parabola IMO and has broken up and out of the longterm trend channel. this IMO is a terminal ending pattern and screams caution. even if you're a bull you should be taking down some positions to profit just in case. thats prudent. the question is when will it break? this is when trading gets fun but also painful. gold is going straight up and that is a huge warning sign for me esp. in light of the carnage elsewhere. Yup gold has broken out of its longterm trend channel. I'm concerned. Lets say gold is at $1750 and you expect a 20% decline, so target is $1400. I would wait for the downtrend before going short. Even at $1700 you would capture 17.6% of the decline, a more than generous return by any metric (you could easily increase that return with leverage obviously). So you missed out on the top 2.4%, at least you didn't get steamrolled if gold trends higher. I know you're a fan of Mish although I'm not sure how long you've been following him. In the early days, Mish was predicting the housing bubble and subsequent pop before most. He was spot on with his analysis. Problem is he was YEARS early with that prediction. You can try to time the market perfectly but I find very few individuals who are able to do it successfully. And most who seem to be able to do so, will only tell you about the time they've predicted successfully and not all the times they've been burned. You've obviously done very well for yourself so I'm not trying to tell you how to invest your money but that's my investment stance. |
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I think current system is still quite flawed, the money do not flow to the most needed place. The banks sitting at the top. They can get 0 interest loans, but that does not really help the economy, the mass demand typically come from the consumer. If every consumer at the bottom of the society can get 0 interest loans, the economy will be back on track right away. I doubt it. I'm a firm believer that a financially responsible person will be responsible no matter the amount of money they have and vice versa. Giving a financially irresponsible person more money only compounds the problem. There's a reason why so many lottery winners and sports athletes go bankrupt. The amount of money they have doesn't matter, they're financially unable to manage any amount and a fool and their money eventually part ways. The average american is swallowed up in debt. Not just a mortgage on a home they can't afford but credit cards and overpriced gas guzzlers. Our savings rate is pathetic. Giving them free leverage would only compound the problem. I'm not saying the banks should get a free pass or that they are not a major part of the problem but more free handouts is not the way to curb excessive spending. |
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No doubt the Fed hasn't exactly earned the reputation of trustworthy. I hear you loud and clear hugolp. This is a highly risky/speculative bet on my part but that's what I devote about 10% of my portfolio towards. This play (if I decide to do it) will fall in that small basket so even if I'm wrong, it's not like it will wipe me out or anything.
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Matthew,
I'll PM you because it would be a re-post to the board and it's not really on topic with the title.
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I'll probably catch some flak for this because I know how much everyone here hates the banks but if they keep selling off, I've got an eye on a few. WFC being at the top of that list. The Fed has committed to near zero interest rates until mid-2013. Buffet also very bullish. Obviously there are strong headwinds, which is why they are tanking, but I see potential opportunity.
I may start writing some puts soon, especially if the VIX continues to rise.
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Well as I believe there wil be more price inflation because of the monetary inflation. http://www.chartingstocks.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/money-supply.gifAdjusted Monetary Base: The sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories Does this graph not scare anyone? You lot like to talk about price technicals but ignore the fundamentals it seems. I think the better way to look at it is the increase in money supply (M1, M2, and M3) in comparison to GDP. This was already posted but for your reference: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dataIf you believe John Williams' view that GDP growth is actually negative and M3 is positive, this would be inflationary. |
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Why would something go down harshly just because it has gone up a lot, is what I mean. Something does not have to go down simply because it has been rising. However, as price rises you need to ask yourself if the increase in price is justified. There is a very strong tug of war between inflation and deflation right now. You will find vastly diverging points of view. None of us have crystal balls so we each do our own due dilligence and invest accordingly. By sharing information with one another we can (hopefully) make more informed decisions. But in the end, we're just relatively anonymous posters on a messageboard so the onus is on you to decide how you want to go forward. |
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APPL is high. Is that going to crash too?
Are you asking me? A couple posts up you said there will be a "major stock market correction." I don't know how you define crash but in a major correction, AAPL will not be spared. |
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its a matter of timing. It is. With gold now at $1800, I think you're wise to step out of the way of the train. The old saying the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid remains true. The higher gold goes, the harder the fall will likely be. But there's no reason to get creamed as it continues its ascent. |
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@cypherdoc:
You are soooo right.
Gold will surprise almost everyone when it goes down hard against the USD. We have have seen already the top today (went short at 1766 $ today) . But even if not, it will start from a bit higher levels and still has huge downside.
Based on my chart analysis, 1300-1400 is the first target, but will fall soon to lead then to 1000-1100. And then we will see. If this does not hold, 600-800 are next.
Can you expand a little on what you're seeing? The bull run in gold has been long, so a correction makes sense, I just don't see it yet. All I see is it trending within its channel as it has at 1400, 1500, 1600..... Outside of the charts, I can see some evidence. No QE3. Both the AUD and CAD (ie. the commodity currencies) basically back to parity. Then again CHF still taking off... Speaking of which, are you short CHF? Seems to be the safer play to me. If gold drops, so will CHF. The Swiss have come out publicly and stated they're trying to devalue on top of that. Seems like more avenues for success. |
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I agree that it's a long-shot right now. Wall St. has more than enough assets to play with and manipulate, I don't think BTC is on their radar at this point. Then again, the BTC market is so small it really only takes one or two big investors.
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yeah, no PPT here. just straight down. damn, i covered too many shorts too soon. to me the signal is "let it go down" b/c they have an objective. Yup looking at the futures and the Asian markets it looks like I may have covered too soon as well. I'm not going to beat myself up over it though, anyone short over the last week or two made out like bandits. I'm content with picking the low hanging fruit. Looks like covering was the right call afterall. I expect the market to rally further tomorrow maybe a little longer then back down. This wont' be a V-bottom. My guess is it won't be the downgrade but Europe that will weigh on the market short-term. Italy is out of cash by next month unless they have access to the funding markets. |
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FOMC: Keep rates low until mid-2013.
Gold still trending upwards within its channel. Not buying or selling at this point, just holding on for the ride.
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yeah, no PPT here. just straight down. damn, i covered too many shorts too soon. to me the signal is "let it go down" b/c they have an objective. Yup looking at the futures and the Asian markets it looks like I may have covered too soon as well. I'm not going to beat myself up over it though, anyone short over the last week or two made out like bandits. I'm content with picking the low hanging fruit. |
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HAHA To fund nuclear arms huh? In a little less than two years, the police said, the organizers made $6 million. OMG $3 million per year. They'll have an ICBM in no time! ROFLMAO |
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FLAT
Within your + or - 50 cent threshold
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