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961  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: October 13, 2023, 11:16:51 AM
~snip~
Messi will definitely be involved with the Argentina football team in 2026 but there are doubts about whether he will take the field as a player. Lionel Messi's age has not affected his performance. He left Europe last season, if he hadn't left Europe he could have stayed in Europe for a few more seasons. Recently I heard some rumors that Lionel Messi will return to Europe again he will return to his old club Barcelona but I don't know how true these rumors are. If Lionel Messi plans to play in the 2026 World Cup then he must come back to Europe again because no matter how good his performance is in the league he is in now, his performance against European teams is nothing, so if he is to play in the 26th World Cup, it must be a tough fight to pass three years.

Playing for four years in the US and his increased age will definitely lower his performance.

I don't think it would be a good idea for Messi to play in the 2026 World Cup, he could do marketing, ads, etc. But playing?, much better to give a chance to the next generation.

Messi already won everything there is to win. No need to try again in 2026. He will probably just keep playing in the US for a bit to make some extra cash, and then retire.
962  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: October 13, 2023, 11:14:35 AM
~snip~
Of course because some of the games that @Lucasgabd has mentioned are games that require gambler skills there are several opportunities that can be created and then exploited to win.
But unfortunately not all gamblers like this game because it requires intelligence and skill to be able to master the game.

Things like counting cards for example were easier and more effective to do a long time ago. Nowadays most casinos have changed their rules and make most of these techniques almost useless.

For example, they would use multiple decks of cards, and reshuffle often, and in roulette they have added a double zero along the zero, making it more difficult to win.

Winning in casinos has been getting harder and harder over time.

Even with the most skilled player, the odds are against them in the long term.

Of course some people might get lucky and they might stop gambling then and have a win, but those are really rare. Most people will lose, or if they win, they will continue playing until they lose.
963  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Slots 101: Basics, Strategies, and Discussion (with poll) on: October 13, 2023, 11:10:53 AM
~snip~
It is not necessarily so. Saying from my own experience of almost a decade of gambling online, indeed, I finally lost all my balance on several sites, but I won and withdrawn on several occasions either. And I personally in profit from all my gambling, but I know it was just luck, I know you can lose everything, but I can't agree that a gambler will necessarily end up losing their money.

It is just math and probability. Most gamblers will end up losing more than they win.

Also, keep in mind that a lot of people tend to forget their losses, and exaggerate their wins, so that's also another thing to consider.

At the end of the day, casinos are making a lot of money, and that money comes from somewhere.
964  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The madness of gambling addicts. on: October 13, 2023, 11:07:19 AM
~snip~
Stopping gambling must be done by gamblers who have been gambling for a while because by stopping gambling, they can calm themselves about the results they obtained previously and think about what they should do. If their previous results were losing, it might be a good time to stop gambling and leave the casino. And if their previous result was a loss, they also have to stop immediately because continuing to gamble will only trigger their emotions to increase and there will be thoughts of getting the next win.

For this reason, a person must be able to control himself during and after gambling to see that he has had enough gambling. That will prevent him from experiencing more losses and also prevent him from developing a gambling addiction.

Yeah, that's the thing, pretty much all gamblers will end up losing more than what they win. But it is the few small wins that make them interested in trying again and again.

It's a tricky thing to get out of because everything in the casino is designed to keep the gamblers playing and betting as much as possible.
965  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are successful gamblers seen as addicts? on: October 13, 2023, 11:01:10 AM
~snip~
Successful gamblers can be as you say, but some say that successful gamblers win more often than other gamblers. They can regulate their gambling and not be as passionate as other gamblers. And they can get the win but don't chase the win like other people. They can stop thinking there is still another win when they have already won.

This group of successful gamblers who have been gambling for years can make more money than other gamblers. They can learn from their mistakes and estimate their chances if they continue gambling. They will not be greedy in expecting another win and can think about when they should stop, especially after getting their win. They can also enjoy their winnings more often than other gamblers because they can stop on time after winning.

They can prevent their gambling addiction and are not tempted by other promotions. They think they have to control their thoughts so they don't become addicted to gambling.

That would just be random then, basically a gambler A winning more times than a gambler B is just random.

But in the end, even if the gambler A wins more, the casino will win even more, so the gambler will end up losing some or all their money.

That's just how it works, it's math and probabilities in games designed by the casino, which is just maximizing their wins.
966  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How was your first experience with gambling? on: October 12, 2023, 02:41:10 AM
~snip~
Yes large capital does not guarantee a good winning because your luck doesn't shine every day,  there are times that you will have to build up that energy to be able to set a limit no matter what your capital or luck is because in continuing, you tend to risk more even,  so best you allocate limit to each gambling outing and if online there should be a clear demarcation between when gambling and when not to gamble because doing other wise will limit your overall performance and may lead to a more severe and bad outcome.

Nevertheless, as a gambler one also can go overboard and over-excited to go more further but the outcome of that has not always been a friend and since we have to understand what it means to be addicted,  so we know the risk of getting too much involved in gambling.

Yeah, the amount of money the gambler has doesn't really matter too much because there are maximum and minimum bets on every game.

The only thing the gambler needs to do is to avoid financial ruin. And that can happen very quickly if they start increasing their bets.

And in every single bet the casino has an advantage, so that basically means that the gambler will almost inevitably run out of money eventually...
967  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: October 12, 2023, 02:35:53 AM
~snip~
I have never thought of this but it may as well be very much possible after some time and of course no human being can check that many resources in such a short amount of time,it can help make better decisions when placing live bets and that could be a good start for AI helping humans winning a bit in sport betting.Of course that AI would be used by the casinos too and they would put mechanisms in place to protect themselves by changing the odds faster and thus leaving many of us without the possibility of betting.

I think that only when AI will be developed to check a lot of resources before a game starts and make a decision that statistically will be the best,that would be a good start.

At the moment there is no reliable way to determine if a text was written by AI or a human.

In the same way, there will probably be no way of determining a bet was the output of an AI or a human intuition.

Casinos will probably will have to keep an eye on someone winning too much money, but they won't be able to know why, and all their checks would come back reporting that the gambler has done nothing wrong.
968  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: October 12, 2023, 02:33:33 AM
~snip~
there are card games like blackjack, poker, so forth and so on
I think these are the only hope for those who want to have an edge

and on online casinos there's sports betting, you can probably have an edge with these too.

Yeah, those games are as close to parity to the casino as possible, but still, there is an edge for the casino, even if it's a small one it will make a difference.

Sports betting might eventually show sometimes an advantageous bet for the skilled and knowledgeable gambler, but it will probably only work from time to time, not in reliable way for the long term.
969  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How will you feel if it happens to you just like this? on: October 12, 2023, 02:31:10 AM
I have tough losses all the time or games that I KNOW I should have bet but didn't or forgot to.  It happens to me ALL the time.  That said, I try not and take it any further than that weekend.  If you sit and let it stew, you're just going to drive yourself nuts unnecessarily, and whats the point of doing that.


Just make simple easy bets is all I can say.  Don't stress so much.

The thing is that you probably also have not bet on things that you would have lost, but you don't remember those as much as the ones where you would have won.

At the end of the day it's all about probabilities, you will simply win less times than the times you will lose. That's just how the thing works.

And the mind will only remind you of the times you missed your opportunity to win big, and ignore the times you lost without betting on it.
970  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: October 12, 2023, 02:27:40 AM
~snip~
I am not that sure whether he will be interested in playing. Just a few months ago, he rejected a billion plus USD offer from Saudi Arabia and chose to move to the United States instead. His wife wanted to settle down in the US, and that was one of the reasons why he made that decision. Given all this, I don't think that he will continue to play for another 3 years. My guess is that he wants another year or so with the Major League Soccer (MLS), and after that he is going to retire from professional football.

Yeah, that's what I think as well.

Relocate to the US with a company paying for it, get some extra money for a couple of years or so, and then retire to make ads for whoever pays the most.

He would be able to make the ads from anywhere in the world really, or at least it would be a simple short trip and back for a nice amount of money.

Pirlo and Salgado for example have been making ads for Dubai.
971  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The madness of gambling addicts. on: October 11, 2023, 12:35:02 AM
~snip~
Losing is the result that most gamblers get because they think that with one more play and they will win a lot of money. That's what they think when they gamble, especially if they have too much hope in gambling to win.

The casino business is a business that can give hope to people who are desperate for money. And the promotions he carries out can make the gamblers come back more often than before. And that only happens to gamblers who are very eager to win even though winning in gambling is very difficult. They have to really control themselves so they don't experience too many losses.

Yes, you are spot on.

The casino basically sells hope, and charges a lot for it.

In the end, the gamblers usually would have gotten a much better future if they invested their money instead of gambling it away.

But that's the high they get, the probability to win a lot of money in a short amount of time. Even though at the end of the day most gamblers will lose it all.
972  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? on: October 11, 2023, 12:33:19 AM
~snip~
We are talking about a presidential poll, and this is for aggregate of polls. In this case, I would say that the +1.0% lead shown for Trump is not very insignificant. And as a matter of fact, different poll agencies have published POTUS polls for the last few days. And out of the last 17 polls, only three have shown Biden in the lead. All the other polls have shown either Trump in the lead, or a tie. Given this, I would say that Trump is clearly having an advantage right now. And also, the electoral college system will amplify that advantage.

Still it is not a massive difference, and many things can change in the time we have until the election day.

In any case, it can go either way I think, either Trump or Biden might end up being the next president.

A 1% difference in a poll is still too small in my mind.
973  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread on: October 11, 2023, 12:31:52 AM
~snip~
Maybe Messi won't get anything in the next World Cup, but what some users here have mentioned is that Messi is still Messi, a football superstar who has become the idol of footballers all over the world and that also includes Argentinian footballers. Messi won't get anything, but young Argentine national team players will get something very valuable in their lives, namely playing football with Lionel Messi. It is possible that in the 2026 World Cup there will be several new faces in the Argentina national team and we can confirm that their average age is 20-29 years which means they are football players born in 1997-2006 and it is certain that they will be very motivated for every match.

Yes, but I think it is time to leave the space so that other promising younger player get the chance to play.

If Messi goes to the world cup, then they will definitely put him on the team, leaving the younger players with less experience.

I think it's his time to retire at the peak.
974  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are successful gamblers seen as addicts? on: October 11, 2023, 12:30:14 AM
~snip~
As much as luck remains the primary determinant of a gamblers fate, we could still bank some on skill as, there are a few games that uses a bit of skill and know well in a fair play situation to determine who wins. Games such as we have in sports betting. It’s almost normal for the elite teams to take the lead and shine on every time with some few cases where you can have even an almost relegated team come up with some surprises and be the victor.

Another game for the casino board games is the game of poker and even blackjack. Play your cards right and you just might find yourself winning impressively.

Still, there is a luck factor attached as, you never can accurately speculate when those surprises are going to come or not. So, you don’t ho all in at any point. It could easily turn out to be a big mistake.

Yes, but at the end of the day you could have a naive gambler that played a crappy game that has high odds for the casino, and still managed to win because of luck.

On the other hand, an experienced gambler playing a game like blackjack which has a lower advantage to the casino might lose their entire stack.

It's true that skill might be needed, but at the end of the day it is still a random event.
975  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election on: October 11, 2023, 12:28:10 AM
~snip~
Ironically, lately Biden has done nothing to prevent more sections of the wall to be build, approved the deportation of people from Venezuela back to their country of origin,etc.
Biden may be in his golden ages, but as a politician he is not stupid, he knows people from New York (a democrat/blue location, is suffering for the immense inflow of migrants without having a proper preparation and he does not want to be pointed out as responsible for all the chaos, specially as close as we are from the election day.

This all situation is nothing but a softball for the political rethoric of Trump and the Republican party, I would not be surprised his in the following polls Trump started to even take lead over Biden by some points. Because, whether we like it or not, Trump is good enough at using others mistakes against themselves, for his own political benefit..

I think Trump has a real possibility to become president again in the next elections.

The people in the US are getting extremely polarized and they don't seem happy with the current situation.

At least around half of the people said they would vote for Trump, so that's something that will make it very close on election day.
976  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How will you feel if it happens to you just like this? on: October 10, 2023, 04:41:01 AM
~snip~
It happens often, but surely not always. The probability of losing is just slightly higher than  that of winning, so the casino can't  know for sure that if the gambler stays longer he'll lose all his money. We all know that there were cases when very lucky gamblers were asked to leave and were forbidden from entering the casino again. In some cases those gamblers were cheaters, but often they were just lucky and stupid casino managers were afraid of them winning more and more. All this was happening in the past and in land-based casinos. Today online casinos are rather interested in someone's winning big on their platform. Word will spread and more people will be playing on their site, and the volume will do its job for them.
Well, yes, the probability in some games is close to say 50/50, but with a slight advantage to the casinos

Other games have a way larger advantage for the casinos.
Games like dice give a player a 49% chance of winning a bet if the odds are set at 2x, and that doesn't include the house edge as that is cut from the amount if you win the bet. If we talk about slots, most of them have a lower than 97% RTP (Return To Player), so there is basically no chance for a player to get back the complete amount even if the slot gives back to them unless the player is extremely lucky and they manage to win more bets than losing.

So, the probability of losing in slots is obviously higher than in other games and that is the reason why they eat up a lot of money even if they have good RTPs. Other games might not have any RTP, but they provide slightly higher chances for the player to win certain bets.

Yeah, I think many gamblers enjoy the slots for the lights and noises, etc.

But at the end of the day, the odds are pretty bad for the gambler.

I think blackjack is probably the best in terms of odds
977  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How was your first experience with gambling? on: October 10, 2023, 04:38:31 AM

It seems that casinos have a special algorithm that keeps gamblers hooked to keep playing, especially on games like slot machines. In addition, when we have been gambling for several months, we usually don't like small bets, as we are less excited if we hit the jackpot on a small bet. The bigger the bet, the worse our finances will be.

I think Casinos take advantage of that. Games like slots have a system like they will give you a jackpot when you have a small bet. Seriously, I think a system like that really exists. When you play a small bet, you will get a jackpot on a small bet and of course you will regret placing a large bet in the hope of getting the jackpot again.

Those things are heavily regulated, so I don't think they would actually do that.

The probable explanation is that gamblers make more smaller bets, so there is a larger probability to get a jackpot, that is it.
978  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? on: October 10, 2023, 04:34:52 AM
Speaking of Wikipedia, that's what I found there about "realclearpolitics":

"In 2020, The New York Times noted that since 2017, when a large number of its straight news journalists were laid off, RealClearPolitics has had a rightward, pro-Trump turn"


And I went to Wiki because I was suspecting something like that. Trump "is back on top" for once, and they are happy to report it.

But Trump is not "well ahead", far from it. Even if we take the data from the same site, realclearpolitics.com, it looks like this:



I wouldn't call it "well ahead", to be honest.

Many sportsbetting sites are not accepting bets on 2024 USA elections right now, so, I can't say what bettors think, unfortunately.

First of all, I wouldn't consider Wikipedia as an authentic source of information. And secondly, +1.0% lead for the GOP candidate is earth shattering. During the 2016 POTUS election, Hillary actually had a lead of 1.9% and despite that Trump swept the polls with 304 electoral votes against 227 for Hillary. A lead of +1.0% in favor of Trump would actually mean 400+ electoral votes and even lean-blue states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Maine flipping to the GOP. And I would say that the polls look fairly accurate. There is a lot of anger even in blue states, regarding the border crisis.

I think Wikipedia should be alright as a source of pointers of information, that is, there must be a link to the actual poll in the article.

But 1% is too small difference anyway
979  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The madness of gambling addicts. on: October 10, 2023, 04:33:11 AM
excessive frustration lead you to be more aggressive and instead of quitting or stopping it generate the kind of mindset that you needed to proceed and continue, more time to gamble can convert into more money to deposit, the moment you realize that you are doing wrong decision making is when you already emptied your bankroll together with your save money or money that's not supposedly for gambling and supposedly for more important things that it was saved or prepared.
Excessive frustration will only trigger a person to gamble non-stop because he will try to recover his losses and use more money to continue gambling. But it also won't guarantee he can recover his losses and he may experience more losses. But if he can manage his emotions so that they don't escalate further, he will realize that it is time to stop gambling and leave the casino so as not to suffer even more losses. He must be aware of it because he must be a responsible gambler and not spend too much money gambling. Moreover, gambling will not always give you a win, even a small win.

It is actually the most probable outcome to end up losing at casino games.

That is the math of it, it is very clear. The whole business of casinos make some people think they can end up winning, but that is the least probable outcome
980  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: I am only trying to stay safe by gambling less on: October 09, 2023, 09:17:41 AM
For me these days, I do wish I could gamble more instead of spending frivolously and indulging in cheap entertainment that cost me my funds, time and attention. Most times I don't get as much thrill and fun like when I gamble and have my blood pumping or emotions raving, but I know the importance of control and the need to instead save or reinvest my funds to solve a better need.
Investment is in the form of HODLing BTC as I have always said and perhaps in knowledge of trading and real world skill, hence why I heed to forming better money consumption habits than gambling which is easily addictive.

Yeah, gambling is really short timed, very different to actually making an investment, which is more long time focused.

Some people call gambling investing, but it is not really an investment, it is buying the small chance to win money.

And the casinos just keep collecting money from fees and their better odds.
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