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981  Economy / Gambling / Re: #3 Bitcointalk Poker Series (0.05 BTC & BIG BTC Ticket sponsored by SwC Poker) on: June 26, 2020, 07:14:27 PM
The lottery idea as an incentive for lower players has gone a bit wrong now you made it back into a stealth prize for the same old faces.

Better to just give one ticket  to every player who enters any game, and again each time they do.

A genuine lottery prize. Not 10 tickets for the winner 1 for a loser etc. like that

I think you misunderstood the lottery or I didn't explain properly Wink I posted how it would have looked for series #2:



You joined two tournaments without getting into the (internal) points, so would have gotten 20 tickets for 2,800 fees. If you joined all 8 tournaments without finishing in the points in all of them, you would have gotten 80 tickets. The most tickets for one player were 117, so you having 80 is not too shabby then and gives you a good chance of getting a good portion of your buy-ins back.

And if you join at least 5/8 tournaments, you will not only accumulate some tickets, but also be eligible for small final (if you think your chances for Grand Final are non existent).
982  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [EDUCATIONAL] The Business Model of White Label Betfair Exchanges & More on: June 26, 2020, 05:25:14 PM
could anyone point me to an URL where I can see the allowed countries for betfair right now? I searched and even talked to betfair but they did not provide the info. Betfair says changes for allowed countries are quite often so I would need to try to register to find out if my country is accepted. This was not a satisfying answer as I maybe would move to an allowed country.

There isn't that one list unfortunately and the response from Betfair is kind of reasonable. Just last year Betfair closed all their agent accounts and they don't do that for fun; there is always something going on regarding certain countries, new regulations and the risk Betfair is willing to take, to not lose more customers. And you have to be careful, if you read somewhere that country XY is allowed at Betfair, because there is a difference between the Betfair Sportsbook and the Exchange. You can use the sportsbook in a lot of countries, but both sportsbook & exchange in not that many (thats why WLE's have some success Wink ). In the end I think you will only be safe longterm, if you move to UK/Ireland. UK is better than Ireland then again because of Brexit.

You can also check out ACC-EX. The last time I talked to them, they had 1,000 Euro minimum deposit, 50,- quarterly membership fee and 6% transfer fees (a lot).
983  Economy / Gambling / Re: #3 Bitcointalk Poker Series (0.05 BTC & BIG BTC Ticket sponsored by SwC Poker) on: June 26, 2020, 04:51:56 PM
No offence but you need to shift it to either Tuesday or  Wednesday. Sunday is very busy for regular players like me because of big tourneys on poker stars.

Problem is, there are players from very different time zones and weekdays a lot of people have to work. But I get your point Wink Saturdays would maybe be better in that regard, but a lot of people go out on Saturday evenings/nights. There is a reason, why PokerStars has their big tourneys on Sundays Smiley

If you pay the fees but don't register then you are ineligible for tickets which I think is fair because you have a authority to claim refund so people may try to get free tickets this way.

Even if you don't request a refund, it would make no sense to award (the 10 participation) tickets, because then I could just send 3,200 chips to efialtis and have 80 tickets for lottery, where I could win double the amount or more. So the tickets need to always be tied to actual participations imo. It's not 100% perfect, but it's very rare, that a player pays the extra fees and doesn't join then. And we can always shift it to the next tournament then (unless the player paid for all 8 tournaments upfront).
984  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Betting & Discussion] Chinese Basketball Association - Rest of 2019/2020 Season on: June 26, 2020, 12:11:36 AM
I will post some bets here, please follow at your own risk; this league is crazy and there is a lot of match fixing going on.
So, this is true?

I can't give you any proof, but if you follow this league closely, there are a lot of strange things happening, sometimes even caught on camera (at the sidelines). The CBA has their own dynamics with all these special rules, but still there are crazy things going on on a regular basis, which can only be explained with match fixing. Just today there was this rather strange game between Guangzhou and Tongxi (check the Match History tab, especially Q4 with pre-match odds and HT1 result in mind) and this happens quite often. Pre-match the odds/HC-lines/over-lines are often quite volatile, where you can play middle and more often than not, the teams manage to land just in the middle of things Grin You then have a team intentionally fouling with 1sec left in Q4 albeit they could just let the clock run out. With the following FT's they get a certain result (which they also were already chasing all the time in Q4).

And it's not always the players or some syndicates doing this, but the bookmakers are also involved. This was witnessed more than once by friends of mine, mainly in pre-season, when they were present live at the games. B*t*6* faked their internal scoreboard and the odds accordingly to fool punters into some bets that could never win.
And then you have live odds that just make no sense in a non-fixed match. Whatever happens on the court, doesn't reflect in the odds, because the bookmaker "knows" the final outcome. So he offers apparently very good odds for something that looks very likely to happen, but will never happen in reality, because it's fixed. You have to be very cautious - something that looks too good to be true, is very likely fixed in CBA Cheesy

All in all this is a pretty dirty league, but still profitable to bet, if you know what is going on and accept certain things as part of the (dirty) game. And match fixing is going on everywhere, not only in CBA. But in CBA it's extreme imo and often times they don't make a lot of effort to even cover it up Wink
985  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [EDUCATIONAL] The Business Model of White Label Betfair Exchanges & More on: June 25, 2020, 11:43:26 PM
Does these white label sites support some APIs like BDP Stream API?

Could you send me some URLs to check them? As I'm working on crypto reviews right now and this is an interesting option/alternative.

Hi there Smiley No, as far as I am aware these exchanges have no public API at all. I used to do everything with GeeksToy at Betfair and I am dearly missing this option with the WLE's.

You can check out yourself: https://orbitexch.com
986  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Bitcointalk Poker Series format discussion - Let's keep them all in one place. on: June 25, 2020, 08:55:23 PM
Everything will be fine Smiley I have pimped the spreadsheet already to easier keep track of our lottery, so ready to go. I also added some flags, to show the internationality of our series. I might have missed some flags, since I don't know the nationality of all players or the country they live in. If your flag is missing and you want to have it added, just make a peep. And I am not sure about that UK flag tbh, but I think at least one of the regular players is from UK (?).

Not sure, if people like to have those flags there in general, I can delete them again if wanted.
987  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Betting & Discussion] Chinese Basketball Association - Rest of 2019/2020 Season on: June 25, 2020, 07:48:53 PM
Two bets for tomorrow:

Guangdong - Tianjin HC1 -29.5 @1.89 3/10

Not a fan of these huge handicaps, but Guangdong is just in a league of its own and Tianjin is poor.

-

Zhejiang Guangsha - Beijing HC2 -7.5 @1.85 4/10

Was hoping for a slightly lower HC, so reduced stakes, but Beijing is the better team right now and it's an important game for them regarding the Playoffs.
988  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [EDUCATIONAL] The Business Model of White Label Betfair Exchanges & More on: June 25, 2020, 06:27:57 PM
I can't really speak to this as I don't really go for in-play, especially not Betfair markets or the like, but I'm sure, since there are humans involved, there is always value to be found (which is really what I do as well, hunt for values, bookies that overextend, price boosts that are 50% more than anything else etc).

There are also lots of trading bots, but they are set up by humans I assume/hope. Every now and then you have a bot go wild, just like can be seen sometimes on crypto exchanges. There is value too in pre-match of course, but I feel more comfortable with inplay nowadays. And from my observations, you will get better odds inplay 90% of the time for what you considered to play pre-match anyway.
You will miss out on some good pre-match bets due to very early goals, but when you get 20-30% better odds 9/10 times, it pays off to wait for higher odds live.

But as you said.....

It's definitely a style to consider, but I assume it's time-intensive, which I can't accommodate =)

.....it's time-consuming. You are waiting like a sniper for opportunities to arise and somtimes you "lie" there like a moron and can't pull the trigger Grin Thats the nice thing with pre-match betting. You can place your bets and just go away and check the results later. It all has its pros and cons.
989  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: June 25, 2020, 04:29:11 PM
Good feedback @Darkoth89 Smiley

Of course, Bremen has to attack no matter what but don't you think that you overestimate Bremens attacking power a bit. On paper they should have the personnel to score a lot, I totally agree with you here. But they had this potential for the whole season, and still they have the second worst offensive this season with only 36 goals scored. Only Dusseldorf and Paderborn are that bad or even worse.

It's all about tactics and Kohfeldt isn't the right coach for Werder imo. Werder's DNA was always to play attacking football. They had seasons where they scored like a Top3 team and conceded like a team that will relegate. Kohfeldt always took a much more defensive approach and thats not Werder. He got away with it in 17/18 and 18/19, but this season things didn't click and Werder is in danger of relegating now after 40 years.

Even with Rashica probably out, they still have Selke, Sargent, Osako, Klassen, Bittencourt, Pizarro (as sub - he will score on Saturday Cheesy). Not the offensive power they used to have in recent years, but this bet is also 50% about Cologne. They won't show up imo and have a poor defense, they will want Werder to score (but not make it too obvious Grin)

This is like a cup/KO game for Werder, what happened in the past is in the past, it's just about this one game, which they have to win with big margin; it's their duty after a horrible season and they have an opponent who doesn't care.

But let's just hope you're right and I am wrong, Bremen wins and stays in the league.

It's not in their hands anymore, they can just do their job and then have to see what happens in Berlin Wink And it's not about being right or being wrong, it's about value and discussing things here a bit. You don't win odds of 9 just like that, so most likely you will be "right" Wink
990  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: June 25, 2020, 11:09:01 AM
Two days to go until the grand final. The Weserstadion at Bremen saw many miracles in the past and maybe we will see another one on Saturday. For this to happen, Bremen will most likely have to win by big margin against Cologne:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/standings/UoXxkTs4/dAfCUJq0/#table;overall

If Düsseldorf loses at Berlin, any home win will do the trick for Bremen. If Düsseldorf wins at Berlin, Bremen can do whatever they want. If Düsseldorf draws at Berlin, then Bremen can only catch up and overtake them, if they work a bit on their goal differential - they would have to win by a minimum of four goals against Cologne. Bremen has had a poor season and imo they will throw everything they have at Cologne to do their homework and then pray for Berlin to take points.

Cologne and Düsseldorf are rivals (not only when it comes to football) and they wouldn't shed a tear, if Düsseldorf goes back to 2. Bundesliga. I expect them to not show big effort to avoid losing big time.

Rashica is still questionable for Bremen; would help a lot, if he was available.

I will play Bremen HC-3 for odds around 9-ish. Over bets and Werder team totals are good as well imo, but maybe better for inplay. Unless Berlin has a safe lead against Düsseldorf, Bremen will relentlessly attack and they are capable of scoring a lot, they have the personnel for it. Even if Düsseldorf leads like 1-0 at Berlin and Bremen is only at 2-0, they won't stop pushing for goals, because Berlin can equalize at any time.
991  Local / Altcoins (Deutsch) / Re: PEAQ - first tokenization built on IOTA (nicht mehr IOTA, sondern eigener DAG) on: June 25, 2020, 10:31:58 AM
Welches Datum munkelt man denn?

Das darf ich glaube ich öffentlich nicht sagen Wink Ich bekomme derlei Informationen auch nur über ein paar Ecken und behandel sie dann lieber vertraulich, um niemanden in Schwierigkeiten zu bringen. Aber dauert schon noch ein bisschen und die Zeitangabe war auch recht vage. Wenn man dann noch den üblichen "crypto-delay" miteinrechnet...... Grin
992  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Betting & Discussion] Chinese Basketball Association - Rest of 2019/2020 Season on: June 24, 2020, 07:21:11 PM
This 24h post rule is a bit inconvenient for such kind of threads, so sorry for that little chaos, if anyone even noticed the edits for new bets Cheesy

Shandong - Beijing HC2 -5.5 @1.79 5/10
Shandong - Beijing under 207.5 @1.73 5/10

Both won, with good Q4 effort from Beijing, 94-103 FT, +7.60 here.

Shanghai - Liaoning HC1 +12,5 @1.85 5/10
Shanghai - Liaoning ML Shanghai @7.40 1/10

Shanghai was competitive for three of the four quarters, but they didn't show up for Q3 and lost that one 10-34, which also lost both bets then. A very one-sided quarter isn't a rare event in CBA, but it still annoys me every time it happens against my team Cheesy 87-104 FT, -6.00 here.

Xinjiang - Beijing HC2 +7.5 @1.89 5/10
Xinjiang - Beijing ML Beijing @3.60 1/10
Xinjiang - Beijing under 193.5 @1.91 3/10

No sweat here, Beijing was leading 95% of the time, biggest lead of Xinjiang was 2 points. 67-78 FT, +9.78.

-

Profit: +11.38   
Yield: 45.52%   
W-L: 5-2
Win rate: 71.43%   
Average Stake: 3.57   
Average Odds: 2.88   



Looks like there is nothing tempting for tomorrows games. If there is some more movement in the markets, opportunities might open up and I will post bets then.
993  Local / Altcoins (Deutsch) / Re: PEAQ - first tokenization built on IOTA (nicht mehr IOTA, sondern eigener DAG) on: June 24, 2020, 03:19:17 PM
danke für die Infos, die Advisors und Mitgliedschaften habe ich auch mitbekommen, der digital programmierbare Euro ist mir neu.

Kannst ruhig irgendwelche News hier posten, wenn du welche findest und Zeit/Lust hast. Ich schaue bei peaq regelmäßig vorbei, aber nicht ständig, und poste dann normalerweise einfach was in der Zwischenzeit so anlag in einem Abwasch.

-

Ich bin sehr gespannt was peaq da letztendlich auf die Beine stellt und ob sie in Sachen "Akzeptanz" und Partnerschaften Boden auf IOTA gutmachen können, die ja zumindest in diesem Bereich führend in Sachen DLT IoT sind, was man so öffentlich mitbekommt. Die große Frage ist bei IOTA halt die technische Seite; wenn die einmal steht und einwandfrei funktioniert, wird es schwierig für andere Projekte. Aber das wird trotz der letzten Erfolsmeldungen noch ein wenig dauern, wenn es denn jemals dazu kommen wird, was ja auch immer wieder angezweifelt wird.
Aber peaq hat auch noch einen langen Weg vor sich. Habe ein Datum gehört, wann die Tokens released werden sollen und das ist nicht allzu bald Cheesy Gut Ding will Weile haben.
994  Local / Altcoins (Deutsch) / Re: PEAQ - first tokenization built on IOTA (nicht mehr IOTA, sondern eigener DAG) on: June 24, 2020, 01:55:00 PM
Ordentlich was los bei peaq Shocked

2 neue Advisor in Xavier Sarras und Friedrich Neumann. Advisor sind Advisor und deren Rolle wird mMn oft überbewertet, aber sie öffnen Türen und es ist immer gut solche Leute zu seinem Netzwerk zählen zu können.

Dann ist peaq jetzt Mitglied bei der International Token Standardization Association (ITSA) e.V, des Oracle Global Startup Ecosystem und bei Blockrocket European Blockchain Labs. Auch hier sollte man nicht gleich in Euphorie verfallen - IOTA ist auch bei unzähligen "Organisationen" Mitglied - denn auch das bedeutet nichts im Endeffekt, ausser Netzwerkeffekte. Aber es geht voran.

Und dann gibt es einen Vorschlag bzw. eine Roadmap für einen digital programmierbaren Euro, der zahlreiche, und darunter einige mehr oder weniger namhafte Unterstützer, hat:

Quote
Peter Busch, Robert Bosch GmbH
Simon Seiter, Deutsche Börse AG
David Gnadt, Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW)
Joachim Erdle, Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), www.lbbw.de
Holger Köther, IOTA Foundation, www.iota.org
Ramin Ghafari, Siemens, www.siemens.de
Quelle: https://medium.com/@philippsandner/open-letter-roadmap-towards-a-digital-programmable-euro-ab4ede44bac5
995  Local / Altcoins (Deutsch) / Re: welche bountys signaturen lohnen sich am meisten??? on: June 24, 2020, 12:21:39 PM
~snip~

Herzlichen Glückwunsch Smiley Du kommst ja auch so aus "meiner" Generation, die sich 2017/Anfang 2018 hier registriert haben und da haben wir jetzt schon einige Leute, die die höheren Ränge erreicht haben (bct_ail, aundroid, Lakai01, mole0815, sorry an alle, die ich jetzt vergesse). Der Sprung von Senior zu Hero ist mMn der Größte all things considered.

Merit brauchst mir für diesen Post nicht geben, falls du das in Betracht gezogen hast - gib es lieber an die Leute, die noch welche brauchen und regelmäßig gute Beiträge schreiben.
996  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Bitcointalk Poker Series format discussion - Let's keep them all in one place. on: June 24, 2020, 11:55:33 AM
I hope for that too. What's needed is around 35 participants playing most of the games, or 25 playing all the qualifiers. I think it looks realistic.

Series #1 had 26 players per tournament on average, which would have resulted in 41,600 chips lottery pool and 5 prizes á 8,320 chips. Series #2 had only ~18 players on average then. My guess is, that we will have something inbetween for Series #3, but hope for more.

As of now, the tournament isn't scheduled on SwC. Are we playing this Sunday or not? Smiley

From all I know efialtis is at it, but waiting for response/confirmation from SwC.
997  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [EDUCATIONAL] The Business Model of White Label Betfair Exchanges & More on: June 24, 2020, 11:35:23 AM
In the end, though, I still scout for best odds -- and I'm finding that with new bookies entering their market, their offers are these days better than going P2P.

My "problem" is, that I am doing 95% of my bets inplay these days and 80% of that is trading. Pre-match you will find the same odds or even slightly better odds at bookmakers than at Betfair & Co, but when it comes to inplay and trading, there is no way around Betfair imo. So I am rarely urged to look for other solutions, because Betfair is just #1 for me and no one comes close (yet ?). Only thing I dearly miss at these WLE's is the possibility to use trading software. So weary without it and you have to adapt your trading style a lot.

There is so much more value to be found inplay that I basically don't bother with pre-match bets anymore, unless there is a horribly wrong priced one or if I want to gamble on some multi/system. But each person has his own style of betting and there is a lot of ways to be successful.

I've really liked how Fairlay does its markets -- they're not completely bug-free of course, and until today I still have some unresolved issues with a couple of my bets which refuse to appear in Unsettled (it happened when I tried to set my own markets, support can't fix the visual of it but it's otherwise fine balance wise). We've even got a user danshan who has his own markets, using an app for us to find them.

Yes, I am lurking in that thread, without engaging Wink
998  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [EDUCATIONAL] The Business Model of White Label Betfair Exchanges & More on: June 23, 2020, 08:44:08 PM
I have a Fairlay account but IMO you can't compare it to betfair. I don't get used to Fairlay exchange and I am not able to use it as I used once Betfair

Same here. If you grew up with Betfair, it's very hard to get accustomed to Fairlay and their UI (and I am a bit lazy in that regard as well tbh). And Fairlay has the same problem as all exchanges that are not Betfair or powered by them: low volume.

I will take a look at correct score market as you suggest, but to be frank right now I would not know what to look for but maybe time and watching the pre match moves will tell

Don't rush Smiley Take your take to monitor and observe the markets; how they move. With time you will maybe find an angle or certain patterns. If you have good information or insight, you can use this to your advantage as well. Start small and protect your bank, but be prepared to lose money in the beginning - don't get discouraged by it though, hard work will pay off in this business Wink
999  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [EDUCATIONAL] The Business Model of White Label Betfair Exchanges & More on: June 23, 2020, 04:38:36 PM
I asked Orbit about KYC and they said KYC is a must to open an account. As a BTC user I am not very eager for KYC. BTC deposit and withdrawals are accepted

Yes, you will have a hard time to find a Betfair WLE without being forced to do KYC. Even Exbet will have KYC as I learned the other day. You can check out Fairlay, they only do KYC in rare cases, where they suspect fraud/cheating.

I like Tennis and Soccer. Soccer is IMO better than Tennis for pre match trading

Pre-match trading for Tennis is literally not possible, since the markets only fill up very late. The day/night/hours before the match starts, there is very low volume and not much movement - everyone is waiting for inplay Wink The side markets have very few volume even inplay. It's a bit better in the latter stages in a GS or the big Masters, but otherwise it's a weary task.

what do you mean with correct score market? I mean do you suggest to look at this market for pre match trading?

Yep, I recommend to have a look not only at the 1X2 markets, but also at the correct score market for pre-match trading in football. There are quite a lot of traders there even days before kick-off, so you have good chances of opening a trade and closing it again. You can also do cross-trading with the over/under markets - these markets are all dependant - and create some nice free bet scenarios.
1000  Other / Meta / Re: sMerit faucet, maybe? on: June 23, 2020, 01:39:55 PM
~snip~

There is already a sMerit faucet and it's called writing good, useful, helpful, whatever posts Smiley I know it's not easy, and also depends a bit on your rank, in which boards you normally post and individual time constraints, but it's doable and in your own hands more or less.

The user who created the post you want to merit probably put some effort into writing that post, so you could put more effort in your posts then as well to receive merit and reward the effort the other user has taken. It's in your power, if you want to go that route and if you feel it's worth the hassle for being able to merit a post every now and then. Sounds a bit harsh, sorry if too harsh Smiley, but it's a domino system in the end and the starting point are always good posts.
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