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I made one yesterday - however it was designed to have only 80000000 blocks, so it's over already.
Onkel Paul
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I just received a text message alert from my wallet stating I've received .25 bitcoins
Sender:
1BW9AYABR72GEWY4gwe5nXwNsAoZkJmxhL
Me:
1ARESQKa1AjMvRPfiBGkrc4981uzu8ecbd
That was in error. It should have gone to my wallet. Please forward it to the address in my sig. (SCNR  ) Onkel Paul |
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The algorithm in the bitcoin network adjusts difficulty to match the hashing power, so that on average every 10 minutes one block gets mined.
6 blocks per hour corresponds to 2016 blocks per two weeks.
The difficulty increase depends on the hashing power added during the previous two weeks / 2016 blocks. It is impossible to predict the difficulty increase using just technical analysis. A better estimate would be to take the current wave of ASICs in the delivery pipeline and add their hashing power to the total hashing power curve. However, it's hard to guess when they will be delivered and how fast they will be activated.
Onkel Paul
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...aber ist man bei euch nicht solange unschuldig, bis einem das Gegenteil bewiesen wird?
So weit ich weiß, gilt die Unschuldsvermutung im Wesentlichen im Strafrecht. Steuern gehören aber zunächst mal ins Zivilrecht, das funktioniert anders. Onkel Paul |
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we won't have an accurate idea until all the asic plug up
You're absolutely right, it is impossible to accurately predict how difficulty will develop. My guess is that the difficulty increase predicted by exponentially extrapolating recent data is a conservative guess - it will probably be quite a bit stronger once masses of ASICs start rolling in. And then profitability calculation might look entirely different. Onkel Paul |
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We had a bug in the calculation of break-even considering reduction and time to deliver (which was ignored), this is fixed now.
In addition, we'll add more hardware options when we collected relevant data points...
Onkel Paul
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Unfortunately, its still greatly miss-leading at this point as ASIC's have not started to flood in. And it will likely be a month or more before the Tsunami.
You're right. The difficulty raise estimation can only take into consideration previous data, but it can not anticipate future events. You can change the "difficulty increase per day" field if to see how different values will affect the outcome. However, the actual development will most likely deviate from a purely exponential curve, and that wouild be very hard to model with a simple calculator such as this. One additional thing that we do not yet take into account is the future development of exchange rates. If USD/BTC continues to follow a roughly exponential curve, too (give or take a few bubbles and crashes), profitability for miners looks a bit different since even diminishing BTC results might still translate into reasonable USD values. However, I did not really calculate that through, it is well possible that this effect is dwarfed by the difficulty increase. Onkel Paul |
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Hey, to the OP any chance you can add the BTC calculation in as well? (BTC paid, ROI, profit .. etc...)
BTC paid is already possible (select BTC as the investment currency). For the other fields, I will probably add currency selectors, too, with options for more currencies. We are already thinking about a general BTC/currency converter tool to add anyway. Onkel Paul |
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At the end of May, we will begin a ripple (aka XRP) giveaway May isn't over yet in most parts of the world :-) And at the end of May, they will begin the giveaway, not complete it... But I'm waiting for it, too - not for speculation but for development... Onkel Paul |
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Ripples can be subdivided to one millionth, and the current transaction fee is 0.00001 XRP, so with ripples for just a few dimes you should be able to do all the transactions for a lifetime.
You need some as a reserve, though, for keeping accounts, credit lines and trade offers. These are not consumed but must be present to be able to use the system.
Both of these mechanisms do not make transactions or accounts expensive, but they should deter some forms of misuse.
In my opinion, the current XRP price is way too high, people are speculating but they don't realize that XRP is pre-mined and there's a lot of it. I don't consider this a bad thing, it just means that XRP are not comparable to bitcoins, they serve a different function.
Onkel Paul
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We'll look into it. Thanks for the heads-up!
Onkel Paul
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$ ls -alct /|tail -1|awk '{print $6, $7, $8}'
Aug 25 2006
$
Ok in the meantime I've updated the operating system more often than I can remember, there's a new mobo in the machine, but still the first HD and graphics card (you can bet that I can't mine with it).
Onkel Paul
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 Oops  We're looking into it. This should not happen! Onkel Paul Update: Fixed now
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We've seen the rapid increase in mining power during recent weeks, and many mining result calculators still provide estimates based on a fixed difficulty which can be quite misleading. Here's a mining calculator that takes difficulty increases into account (it calculates estimated daily difficulty change based on the last 10 actual difficulty changes): http://coinish.com/calc/Try it, you'll be surprised by the results! Onkel Paul We're open for suggestions and improvements! |
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We are proud to present our new bitcoin info web site:  coinish.comThe site is mainly targeted at bitcoin newbies and provides basic information to get started with bitcoin. In addition, we have built an enhanced mining calculator which takes estimated difficulty increase into account. Try it, the results are very interesting! More tools will be added soon. Onkel Paul Working again |
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Ok, also angenommen 1,2 mio AES-Schlüssel pro Sekunde.
Bei 72^12 möglichen Schlüsseln wären das geschmeidige 500 Millionen Jahre, die eine nvidia-Karte da so dran rumrechnen müsste (ok, statistisch ist sie nach der Hälfte der Zeit fertig, also 250 Millionen Jahre).
Damit's schneller geht, nehmen wir ein Botnetz mit 10000 Rechnern mit passender Hardware und hoffen, dass wir das lange genug laufen lassen können, ohne dass den Besitzern was merkwürdig vorkommt. Dann kommen wir auf 25000 Jahre - ich hoffe mal, die Botnetz-Rechner haben die extra haltbare Version der Karten eingebaut, die Consumervariante macht's nicht so lange.
Genauso gut könntest du versuchen, den Stillen Ozean auszulöffeln, und damit es schneller geht, nimmst du statt eines Sandkasteneimerchens einen Braunkohlenbagger (die sind nämlich echt groß). Fertig wirst du aber auch mit dem nicht.
Onkel Paul
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Due to the rapid increase of difficulty (and corresponding decrease of mining returns) any mining rig that does not pay for itself within a relatively short time will not be very profitable at all.
Onkel Paul
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For $3000 I would sell the baby.
If the difficulty increases at its current rate you will not make that much in block rewards.
Onkel Paul
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Unlike an exchange rate bubble that can easily lead to a crash, a hash rate explosion will not be followed by a significant drop unless mining results drop so much that even mining with high-performance gear does not yield enough profit. Then miners will probably switch off hardware until difficulty goes down far enough to make it profitable again.
And yes, if ASIC developers really deliver the hardware that's currently in the pipeline, hash rates will skyrocket.
Onkel Paul
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