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981  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 01, 2017, 11:12:10 PM
And here's a missing piece of the puzzle I've been trying to figure out for a while.  I've always thought the FOFOA idea of revaluing gold at $55,000 was kind of absurd since India and the Arabs have so much of it.  The west would just be transferring power to 3rd world nations.  It makes zero sense.  However, since nobody has big stockpiles of silver (or maybe they do as this article claims), they could utilize silver in a currency in some manner without making 3rd world nations rulers of the world.

The idea that JP Morgan has all this silver has been going on for a while.  Some people thought they bought it solely to dump on the market to control price when it starts to rise, while others think they really have zero.  It's also possible JP Morgan is acting as an agent for the US govt in acquiring all the silver for some type of usage in currency:

http://www.silverseek.com/article/another-interview-silver-guru-ted-butler-16218

982  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2017, 07:47:22 PM
When start legendary shill accounts fud and dump coins ?



983  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2017, 07:38:28 PM
When start legendary shill accounts fud and dump coins ?

984  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 01, 2017, 06:49:03 PM
Objectivity is not your passion.

Objectivity is knowing that through all of history, paper was just a valueless receipt used to go claim your real money which was metals.  Just like this Bill Holter guy says, that is Harry Dent and Armstrong's main malfunction is make believing that fiat paper is money residing on the base of Exter's pyramid when paper was always a derivative of metals, not vice versa.  Paper money backed by nothing is just some temporary blip on the radar and he pretends like that is the norm.

Anyone who isn't a grade F trader can see how insanely manipulated downwards the metals markets are, especially recently with 8000 tons (3 years of global gold production) of non-existent paper gold being dumped in a span of 3 days in November.  Armstrong is a complete fraud and shill and anyone who promotes him is also a fraud with these clowns claiming no metals manipulation exists and the price is only naturally going down LOL.  It's a complete joke.

The Federal Reserve's number one reason for existing in the first place is to manipulate the price of metals because otherwise the free market would organically create it's own gold/silver standard in very short time, rendering the fiat completely worthless.  Anyone who doesn't understand this fact doesn't need to be talking.  And that is what occurs in all of these charts you see, the free market attempting to do exactly that, then central bankers smashing it down until there's finally a run on fractional reserve metals.

Do you really believe this scam artist Armstrong actually quantifies how much fractional reserve leverage central bankers can pull on metals (or even bank paper deposits) before the whole thing implodes?  Of course not.  Even if you buy his absurd "the world is deterministic and everything is capital flows!" claim, the price of gold would logically be at it's low when all capital flowed against it, and it is at this time that a whale market maker would just buy it all, because that's what big money does, buy's metric tons of things when it's cheap.  

Yet, Armstrong's garbage bullshit about capital flows would only provide data about aggregate traders and NOT outlier, lone wolf whales such as this.  So even if Armstrong predicted gold will "bottom at X", instead of being a buying opportunity, that's likely when one mega whale comes in and buys everything up and causes the fractional reserve metals system to collapse in one purchase.  Or if not him, his next friend that comes in.  There is no "bottom" to buy in a dangerous fractional reserve system.  The whole thing can just vaporize at any second whether the price is low or high.
985  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2017, 05:57:25 PM
The JIDF really doesn't want this going over $1000.  China's quota on how much money they can send overseas reset on January 1st, so I doubt anyone is stopping this from going higher.

986  Economy / Speculation / Re: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A! on: January 01, 2017, 05:42:51 PM
The MatDerKater account guy claims he's MatTheCat and that his old account was hacked, but he's refusing to sign a message to prove it

The 'new' matthecat writes like a typical google translate moron.

Was MatTheMat kidnapped by the NSA due to his reverse indicator being too accurate?
987  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2017, 04:29:35 AM
Only a complete fool is going to try and claim Bitcoin is more "anti-fragile" than metals that took two neutron stars to create.

Ok, WRT precious metals (like Gold), please think of this:

1)  PM derivatives market has driven up speculative price of Gold many orders of magnitude above any sensible speculative value based on Average Joe supply/demand, and far beyond any intrinsic value

2)  Any new large Gold deposits discoveries over the last 50+ years (which could be massive!) would *never* be disclosed to the public

3) No transparency in Gold holdings (i.e., vaults, federal reserves, bank reserves, personal holdings, etc.) so no feasible way to definitively audit.  Much of the Gold supposedly backing federal and bank reserves could be completely a myth, or at least a tiny fraction of what is reported to be held.

4) Gold easily faked with Tungsten

And you want to say PMs like Gold are anti-fragile???

#1 - The Crimex only has to account for physical delivery of around 1-2% of it's order books per month, which along with the ETFs is how they manage to fractional reserve metals.  Meaning everything in the paper markets is used to depress the price, NOT increase it.  Unallocated gold has no value.  It's like storing your Bitcoin on MtGox and having Mark Karpeles sell it while you're not looking.

#2 - The earth is for all intents and purposes a closed ecosystem.  We already know in general how much is out there.

#3 - Which is why the statement exists "If you don't hold it you don't own it" and is the same for Bitcoin.

#4 - There's plenty of easy methods to detect fakes, especially for coins where the dimensions have to match as well as weight and maker's marks

Anyway, let's not even get into the fact that through all of history paper currency has been a derivative of metals, NOT paper competing with metals.  Paper represents nothing.  Bitcoin is competing against metals, not the USD.  As for upside, silver has far higher upside potential than gold.
988  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 31, 2016, 10:08:48 PM
Discussion showing how big of a fraud Martin Scamstrong is where he said gold was manipulated and highly undervalued before going to jail then does a 180 afterwards claiming the opposite:

http://youtu.be/mir1hyg066w?t=494

but we do know based on GATA that gold is and was always manipulated by central banks especially the commercial banks in the US (the market makers). Just one reason to be out of it imo.

Not really.  The goal for them is to devalue it to the max possible to prop up the debt based scam dollar, while also attempting to avoid anyone from actually purchasing it from them.  This is obviously accomplished by fractional reserve paper markets but those eventually break down.  They say at the Crimex they only have to account for 1-2% of stuff on the books being demanded for delivery, so that's where your 100:1 fractional reserve comes from and why the value goes to the moon when it breaks on both gold and silver with a "run" on the Crimex.  I assume they'd likely do a new revaluation/Bretton Woods at this point too.  It seems to overall be an asymmetric trade on a long enough timeline.
989  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: December 31, 2016, 09:56:49 PM
The true battle is not over who gets to be chief parasite but in how we can eliminate parasitism and replace it with freedom.

The earth is for all intents and purposes a ship floating in space.  If there is no captain running the ship, or sections of the ship all operating independently run by their own captains, it turns into a fatal tragedy of the commons scenario and it ends.  There is no way out of the "rulers" paradigm, only a question of if there will be one ruler or lots of rulers.  That's as much decentralization you're getting in a closed ecosystem and why libertarianism is generally a joke in practice.  The idea of libertarianism is that you can do anything you want as long as it doesn't negatively effect your neighbor, but that idea is null and void in a closed ecosystem.

If you try to create a system where every piece of land and atom of "things" on earth is owned by someone and they are in charge of it to try and avoid tragedy of the commons, it just turns right back into rulers governing the ruled when the Pareto principle plays out.
990  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2016, 09:34:03 PM
This thread is going downhill with people posting random dollar values or "bitcoin moon" slogans with no fundamental or technical reasoning behind them.  If you're going to say the price is going to be X, at least post a chart or reason why you think it's going to do so.  

For instance, I think it's possible Bitcoin could hit $10-20k each in current state, but anything higher than that and you'd probably be running into things like $20 - $100 transaction fees and start to severely limit it's use cases.  At that point I think you'd either need things like financial institutions themselves to adopt it as part of infrastructure, or you'd need something like Lightning Network or a larger block size to go further.

For the Lightning Network, there's a lot of unanswered questions with things like routing and garbage collection (closing out channels).  If a bunch of people close out channels simultaneously through either normal usage or an attack and overflow the 1.6 MB block size, it kind of throws a wrench in things there.  The price to close channels would probably be set artificially high to try and avoid situations like this and create an ever increasing bid war where everyone is bid off of the main chain quickly and forced onto LN to do anything for all intents and purposes, so it's kind of important what pros and cons it has over current Bitcoin if you're going to be forced to use it.  

Nobody really knows how all these variables will play out yet.

TLDR:  Bitcoin is probably good for another 10x in current state but might need more throughput to go further, or for financial institutions to adopt it and use it in place of something like the SWIFT network.  Otherwise it would probably hit $10-20k then new capital might all bleed off into something like Litecoin.


How much does it cost to send $100 dollars worth of bitcoin today vs. $100 worth of Bitcoin in July of 2013? Isn't the tx fee 0.0001 BTC/kB?

Also 0.0001 * $20,000 = $2 not.... $20

I'm kind of making the assumption here that the price will eventually have to be backed by actual, somewhat inelastic commerce instead of speculation to sit at and maintain a high price.  At a price of say $10-20k, a lot of speculators are going to say, "Ok, this looks like a good place to bail out for me", then they start to sell half or more.  You then require a number of buyers greater than one on average to come in and replace the position of that one whale who held a windfall profit position.  

In other words, price growth backed by actual commerce usage instead of branching from one speculator to two speculators, to four speculators, etc.  Somewhere along the line the utility of the system overrides speculation for price and one of the main variables that determines utility is the transaction fee.  When you extrapolate further with this reasoning and notice there is no way Bitcoin resides lower on Exter's pyramid than gold and silver, you will see the ability to do frictionless commerce at scale becomes a lot more important than trying to pretend to be a store of value when it can't actually compete with metals in that regard.  

Only a complete fool is going to try and claim Bitcoin is more "anti-fragile" than metals that took two neutron stars to create.  This is why the transaction fee or throughput starts to become a big indicator of possible market cap.  If the price exploded to say $100k, yet transaction fees did not also skyrocket with it and maintain that level, it just means it would be in a bubble that's going to collapse because you're still in a speculation scenario and nobody is actually using it for anything.
991  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 31, 2016, 08:32:15 PM
Discussion showing how big of a fraud Martin Scamstrong is where he said gold was manipulated and highly undervalued before going to jail then does a 180 afterwards claiming the opposite:

http://youtu.be/mir1hyg066w?t=494
992  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2016, 07:56:45 PM
This thread is going downhill with people posting random dollar values or "bitcoin moon" slogans with no fundamental or technical reasoning behind them.  If you're going to say the price is going to be X, at least post a chart or reason why you think it's going to do so.  

For instance, I think it's possible Bitcoin could hit $10k-20k each in current state, but anything higher than that and you'd probably be running into things like $10 - $100 transaction fees and start to severely limit it's use cases.  At that point I think you'd either need things like financial institutions themselves to adopt it as part of infrastructure, or you'd need something like Lightning Network or a larger block size to go further.

For the Lightning Network, there's a lot of unanswered questions with things like routing and garbage collection (closing out channels).  If a bunch of people close out channels simultaneously through either normal usage or an attack and overflow the 1.6 MB block size, it kind of throws a wrench in things there.  The price to close channels would probably be set artificially high to try and avoid situations like this and create an ever increasing bid war where everyone is bid off of the main chain quickly and forced onto LN to do anything for all intents and purposes, so it's kind of important what pros and cons it has over current Bitcoin if you're going to be forced to use it.  

Nobody really knows how all these variables will play out yet.

TLDR:  Bitcoin is probably good for another 10x in current state but might need more throughput to go further, or for financial institutions to adopt it and use it in place of something like the SWIFT network.  Otherwise it would probably hit $10k-20k then new capital might all bleed off into something like Litecoin.
993  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: December 31, 2016, 07:22:45 PM
Coincube, you have no idea what you're talking about.  Things like Feminism and Communism didn't just randomly arise, they were crafted as weapons by the Jews in order to destabilize and destroy nations:

"6. Political freedom is an idea but not a fact. This idea one must know how to apply whenever it appears necessary with this bait of an idea to attract the masses of the people to one's party for the purpose of crushing another who is in authority. This task is rendered easier if the opponent has himself been infected with the idea of freedom, SO-CALLED LIBERALISM, and, for the sake of an idea, is willing to yield some of his power. It is precisely here that the triumph of our theory appears; the slackened reins of government are immediately, by the law of life, caught up and gathered together by a new hand, because the blind might of the nation cannot for one single day exist without guidance, and the new authority merely fits into the place of the old already weakened by liberalism."


"14. In any State in which there is a bad organization of authority, an impersonality of laws and of the rulers who have lost their personality amid the flood of rights ever multiplying out of liberalism, I find a new right - to attack by the right of the strong, and to scatter to the winds all existing forces of order and regulation, to reconstruct all institutions and to become the sovereign lord of those who have left to us the rights of their power by laying them down voluntarily in their liberalism."
994  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: December 31, 2016, 08:35:42 AM
Hitler was not a great military leader, the Nazis defeated themselves is how I read their mistakes and misfortune.  The German army under other elements might have won or at least taken on less harm and not lost totally.
Hatred is self destructive first and foremost, its not a religious point more generally true they gained nothing in their needless destruction and lost what might have been a restoration of a wider German empire.     I would compare that to the thread topic by saying I think the largest economic changes long term are naturally occurring not political moves or forced through in some way, no great belief in people or doctrine is required to see changes that are probable to occur
His iq was high he knew what to do... he failed in execution not high enough apparantly

Not sure why Coincube keeps making up this stuff that "god" is on the Jews side of WW2:

995  Economy / Economics / Re: Jim Rickards: Is now the right time to invest in gold? on: December 31, 2016, 08:25:10 AM
Physical assets like real estate would retain their worth (and appreciate in fiat terms) if the currency system collapses.

This is completely wrong.  Real estate prices are entirely a function of the debt markets.  If cost is stretched out over 30 year loans, it sends the price to the moon.  When the debt/credit markets freeze and you have no 30 year loans, the prices collapse to nothingness.
996  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2016, 03:40:41 AM
Reaching $10K vs. staying there are two entirely different things...

Dollar value is kind of irrelevant when you look at the following factors.  Energy output plateaued in 2004 with peak conventional crude oil.  Human labor output has also peaked with every nation that matters reaching a plateau in population for working demographic.  Take into account that debt based currency requires infinite growth or infinite printing and you already have your answer about what's going to happen.

This is where contingency plans come in.  Governments all already know debt based currency has run it's course and have to transition into something to service more of a steady state economy.  They don't want anyone using metals because metals are inherently anti-big government.  They want to be able to fund infinite wars and their pizzagate lifestyle, and it's difficult to steal money from people to do so when ownership is obfuscated and they can't use hidden subterfuge like inflation tax.

Then you have Bitcoin/digital currency.  The goal here is basically for the government to come in and either completely co-opt it, or just act as gatekeepers where they track every dime spent on the planet and come after it all.  They can simply create an alias system wrapper around Bitcoin and mandate everyone has to use it or be considered a felonious money launderer.  The alias system wrapper would probably even directly deduct taxes in addition to whatever else they feel they can take from you to fund Marxism.

Overall, Kaczynsky was generally right about everything and we are probably fucked if digital currency wins over metals, but you might make some money along the way before transitioning into full dystopia.  Silver has around the same upside potential as Bitcoin, so if you could invest then play god and pick the winner to replace debt based fiat, it would be a hard sell picking anything but silver when the other options have all these potential dystopian 1984 features.

I am hedged for both outcomes so you can't call me biased.  I'm just 100% positive that no matter how "good" any digital currency starts out as, these malevolent entities in the world (aka the Jews) are going to turn it into a dystopia just like their current debt based system when there are so many angles for them to do so as I mentioned above.  They honestly seem to not only have no fear of Bitcoin, they have people like Larry Summers and Bernanke embracing it, while mentioning the word silver makes their hair stand up and face turn white like vampires being exposed to sunlight.

Their Marxist banking cabal/cult follows a literal interpretation of some made up book called the Torah and believe every Jew is entitled to 800 "goyim" slaves:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCLtAbULUtw

Whatever scam they try to implement to replace the current system doesn't matter.  Too many "goyim" know what's going on now and we'll be coming for them in the end regardless.





997  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 29, 2016, 02:19:57 AM


998  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 29, 2016, 12:42:37 AM
Sold my coins at $500  each.
I feel ill.
 Embarrassed

Bitcoin, master of the shakeout.
999  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 28, 2016, 05:33:11 PM
Vinny Lingham explaining, in part, why rising US rates impacts gold negatively but not (yet) bitcoin, something relevant to the ongoing discussions here.

Gold went to the moon in the 70's/80's even with 20% interest rates.  Money velocity is low right now unlike then, so by raising interest rates they just engineer a crash on purpose.  It's either a symbolic bluff and they will back out, or they really are trying to cause collapse and it comes down to the choice of:  Would I rather hold Bitcoin or gold and silver when the day of bank holidays comes?

Some people like to make believe that bank holidays and collapses are bullish for people hoarding physical dollars, but when everyone already knows the currency is backed by nothing and can be printed to infinity at any second, the banks imploding just undermines faith in the currency and sends the comparative value of metals higher.  So the nanosecond that you see banks refusing to let people withdrawal is the pivot point that sends metals to the moon because they already know the govt is going to try and print their way out of it.

Buying metals or even Bitcoin at that point will also be very difficult due to capital controls and a freeze in all digital accounts.  You won't be able to just log onto APMEX and buy metals.  APMEX will not want your digital fiat that they can't withdraw from a bank.  That money doesnt' exist as far as they are concerned.  So if you want metals or Bitcoin, you have to own it before the deflationary implosion actually happens.  There is no "buying the dip".  You can gamble and hoard physical dollars in hopes of buying locally at some pawn shop or something, but good luck with that.

1000  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 28, 2016, 12:01:23 AM
Armstrong is a great bullshit artist:

Quote
This will come to a head in 2029, but the end of Marxism may not unfold until 2072.

Predicting the death of Marxism on the exact date of 2072 (LOL).  How can anyone take this guy seriously?
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