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Not in a bubble? $2,500. In a bubble? $10K.
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I did a quick pessimistic exponential curve fit and came up with $2670. That is completely ridiculous for sure, but it's what I answered for the poll. If that is the price on 12/31/13, I predict that it will then crash and we'll all be able to pick up some cheap coins at $500.  Not bad, eh? Sure I overshot the top, but wouldn't you like a coin for $500? |
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I am here to try and gain perspective into why people think that bitcoin is such a solid investment. In the real world there is no such thing as guaranteed returns, yet so many people here are applauding every time a man sticks his entire retirement fund into bitcoin or a kid who has been saving up for college hears about how bitcoin can double his money in a week decides it would be a good idea to put in all into bitcoin. You welcome these vulnerable naive people with open arms. It is you sir who is deplorable.
you're a dick, everyone knows bitcoin is volatile and most enter with only what they are willing to lose - there is mention of weak hands being played here, I don't think there are that many - more like greedy hands and greedier hands, selling on the way down with the intention to buy back in but I guess we'll see within a couple of days. you also talk about the top 50 owning 30%, I don't know if that's true but in the fiat world the top 1% own 41%, the top 10% own 86% and we know they are for the most part, evil mother fuckers so bitcoins distribution is still a definite improvement. I guess that puts me somewhere between deplorable and meh. |
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Out of curiosity, who's got the lowest buy order in?
Buy at $710, coming up fast. More coins for me! |
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Excuse me people!Can we please join forces and discredit this article written on ABC news website? http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/bitcoins-virtual-currency-explained-idiot/story?id=20926230It's the first result on google trends today. Everybody's reading it! The writer is a total douche, the article is crap, he doesn't know the faintest idea of what he talks about or he maybe conveniently talks shit about bitcoin, misinforming. If we politely write comments below the article dissing what he wrote and explaining all the positives that have been left aside, I think it would be a real contribution to the community. Please, take 1 minute and leave a positive, polite and productive comment in favor of bitcoin! Everybody will appreciate this. Quote this message in your replies here so everybody reads and helps Already done. I also sent in a complaint to ABC News on the feedback form. |
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when I look at the sell wall there seems nothing to sell after $500 to about $1000+ as if no one is selling??
Don't worry, I'll be selling on the other side. Others will be too. The price just hasn't gotten high enough to take a position yet. |
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What you are missing is that the spread is not due to the relative value of the Bitcoins, it's due to the relative value of the $.
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I'm sorry, but I really am not understanding all of that the post
What about this (sort of based on that)
Each ticket is given a number, which equals (100/(S+1))*P, where S=Number of tickets sold and P=place which the ticket was sold, so first sold is 1, second is 2...The +1 is in there so the lowest and highest numbers will be evenly spaced from 0 and 100
Then, the winner is the person whose number is closest to the number formed by combining the last two digits of the most recent block's hash. If the number was closer to zero or 100 than the lowest ticket number, the next block will be used (or else first and last tickets would be more likely to win)
In the example you linked to, the numbers would be:
20 nikto
40 boba
60 spork
80 azrael
And the last two digits of the block would be 7 and 2, making the number 72, so azrael would win
This seems like it would be fair to me
There are too many odd cases for this to be verifiable. Also the block hashes are reported in hexadecimal. You are not going to get a number evenly distributed between 0 and 99. My original idea was to use a third party as a random number source, which required the salt and the hash. If you can get a random number from a future source, like a block hash, then you don't need to keep the file contents secret. Thus all you really need here is to turn a block hash into a random number and then use that to select a ticket. In order for this to be provably fair it is absolutely necessary that you state the rules for doing this precisely and unambiguously before you know what the random number is. Here is a straightforward plan. Make a list of tickets in a spreadsheet. If someone has more than one ticket, put their name in the spreadsheet twice. Give each line a number starting with 0. So, assuming boba has two tickets: 0 nikto 1 boba 2 boba 3 spork 4 azrael Post the spreadsheet in this thread. It turns out I can't resist a good math problem. I put together a Google Docs spreadsheet that turns block hashes into a random number, and then into a row selector: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AsBByTjGFrPUdFYwSVhJYmJRb2lqbEJRSmZBQTNhSWc&output=htmlIt is a small improvement on tescomatty's idea. I cut up the 256-bit hash into eight 32-bit chunks, XORed them together, then took the modulus of that and the number of entries to get a random number between 0 and the number of entries minus one. If anyone with a CS or cryptography background cares and wants to double-check my work, I would appreciate it. When you post your spreadsheet, announce a block number a good 20 links higher than the newest one. When the block is generated, post its hash to the thread. PM me. I will update the spreadsheet with the hash, and it will spit out a number matching one of the entries in your spreadsheet. If there is actual money at stake here and you are planning to run a fair and verifiable giveaway, it would also benefit you to post the address of the wallet you will be distributing the coins from. |
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I'm sorry to say that I didn't exactly go through all 15 pages of my last thread and didn't see your comment until now. Right now, I have a spreadsheet of all entries, but not the hashes system. What if I just had an unbiased hero member look at my spreadsheet and use a random number generator to choose the winner, then post the name in the thread?
That would certainly be a big improvement over what you have now. However I would doubt the sanity of an unbiased hero member who would be willing to do something like that. No, I think tescomatty had the right idea. If you need help with the math I'm sure there's plenty on this forum who can help you. |
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If there's no legitimate way to find out who's the winner, then there's actually no point in doing it and no one will ever trust you
Do you want to propose a system? As I posted in your other thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=219632.msg2332147#msg2332147See also the followup post by tescomatty for some excellent ideas. If you want, you can make this a fair and verifiable raffle. Unfortunately, you have set up a system that seems fair but is completely unverifiable. Either you are giving free money to build a good reputation (which doesn't seem to be going very well), or you are running a puppet show and collecting all the winnings. Really there is no way for an outside observer to tell the difference. |
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It is not provably fair because you must trust third party, but I agree its much better than if OP comes here and says: the winner is XY because my random number told it so = we know it was rigged Provably fair would be for example: the list of entrants is published here with numbers from 0 to max and told the random number for selecting a winner will be taken from first block hash after time X, timezone Y as the first 4 hex characters after zeros whose will be mod-ed with the max entrants Like block 238939 http://blockchain.info/block-index/388151/0000000000000049f7405dee9857490618e7536a1e28c750feef53125477eda2has hash 0000000000000049f7405dee9857490618e7536a1e28c750feef53125477eda2 and 49f7 is 18935 decimal so from your example 18935 mod 4 is 3 so winner is azrael Good idea! That's a trick that might come in handy. |
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There is a system for picking giveaway winners that is random, fair, and verifiable. Put the list of entries in a text file, sort it randomly, and then add some salt at the end. Number each entry, starting with 0. Post a hash of the file to the thread for all to see. Then get a trusted third party, like an uncontroversial hero member, to post a random number, preferably a few orders of magnitude larger than the number of entries. The trusted third party must attest that he has not seen the contents of the text file. For appearances' sake the trusted third party should also not have entered the giveaway. Mod the random number by the number of entries; this is your selector. The entry corresponding to the selector is the giveaway winner. Post the contents of the text file in such a way that the entrants can reproduce the hash.
For example, this could be the list of entries:
boba
spork
nikto
azrael
Here's the text file (secret):
0 nikto
1 boba
2 spork
3 azrael
g3qnuqnjkfrenfduvrbequig5q34b/,mcsm,/hachm,/atm,/a
The hash (public):
MD5 (giveaway.txt) = f139f1c4069cfa99022a2fbea534431b
Trusted third party "weeboo" says he has not seen the secret and has no conflict of interest. He provides the number 42.
Post the secret file. 42 mod 4 is 2, so the winner is spork.
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It is now one week past the end of the giveaway. No prize has been awarded. Traade has not posted since 5/14. I'm ready to call it. This was not a legitimate contest. Has anyone received any coins in exchange for their phones? Would whoever is behind this like to post in their defense?
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I did a quick pessimistic exponential curve fit and came up with $2670. That is completely ridiculous for sure, but it's what I answered for the poll. If that is the price on 12/31/13, I predict that it will then crash and we'll all be able to pick up some cheap coins at $500. |
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Still no award for the contest winner, now three days since the end of the giveaway.
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Smashing-bitcoins has not received his award yet.
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UPDATE: We are experiencing delays in transferring our bitcoins from Mt.Gox, the contest will be extended for 1 more week.
A: This makes no sense. Literally. B: Huge red flag for potential customers, and I want no part of it. Please remove my nine entries from the contest. Bitcoin address 13cXfiuWgRgCRr9K3JqVZ8zGgiraWit7Ry. |
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Give BitMinter a try. They have a downloadable mining client that might work with your graphics card.
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