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Date 7/22/18 VWAP $7,451.05 x 2927 y 8.916110536 a (slope) historical 0.003291732 b (intercept) historical -0.094083644 Rsq historical 0.862594 BETI historical -0.624 Expected Price historical $13,901.02 Actual price / expected price historical 53.60% Expected Date historical 1/13/18 # of Days ahead historical -189.45 Daily VWAP Rank historical 187 Next expected price historical $13,946.85 -2.25 $1,465.16 -2.00 $1,881.30 -1.75 $2,415.63 -1.50 $3,101.74 -1.25 $3,982.71 -1.14 $4,450.26 -1.00 $5,113.90 -0.75 $6,566.38 -0.50 $8,431.39 -0.25 $10,826.12 0.00 $13,901.02 0.25 $17,849.26 0.50 $22,918.90 0.75 $29,428.45 1.00 $37,786.88 1.25 $48,519.32 1.50 $62,300.04 1.75 $79,994.83 2.00 $102,715.40
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Date 7/5/18 VWAP $6,581.19 x 2910 y 8.791971424 a (slope) historical 0.003300186 b (intercept) historical -0.102321079 Rsq historical 0.861406 BETI historical -0.708 Expected Price historical $13,361.35 Actual price / expected price historical 49.26% Expected Date historical 12/2/17 # of Days ahead historical -214.58 Daily VWAP Rank historical 225 Next expected price historical $13,405.51 -2.25 $1,408.28 -2.00 $1,808.26 -1.75 $2,321.85 -1.50 $2,981.32 -1.25 $3,828.09 -1.14 $4,277.49 -1.00 $4,915.36 -0.75 $6,311.45 -0.50 $8,104.07 -0.25 $10,405.83 0.00 $13,361.35 0.25 $17,156.31 0.50 $22,029.14 0.75 $28,285.97 1.00 $36,319.91 1.25 $46,635.68 1.50 $59,881.40 1.75 $76,889.24 2.00 $98,727.74
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Date 7/4/18 VWAP $6,576.17 x 2909 y 8.791207536 a (slope) historical 0.003300690 b (intercept) historical -0.102810479 Rsq historical 0.861336 BETI historical -0.707 Expected Price historical $13,330.33 Actual price / expected price historical 49.33% Expected Date historical 12/1/17 # of Days ahead historical -214.07 Daily VWAP Rank historical 225 Next expected price historical $13,374.40 -2.25 $1,405.01 -2.00 $1,804.06 -1.75 $2,316.46 -1.50 $2,974.40 -1.25 $3,819.20 -1.14 $4,267.56 -1.00 $4,903.95 -0.75 $6,296.80 -0.50 $8,085.25 -0.25 $10,381.67 0.00 $13,330.33 0.25 $17,116.48 0.50 $21,978.00 0.75 $28,220.31 1.00 $36,235.59 1.25 $46,527.42 1.50 $59,742.39 1.75 $76,710.75 2.00 $98,498.55
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Date 7/3/18 VWAP $6,583.66 x 2908 y 8.792346845 a (slope) historical 0.003301193 b (intercept) historical -0.103298972 Rsq historical 0.861266 BETI historical -0.703 Expected Price historical $13,299.35 Actual price / expected price historical 49.50% Expected Date historical 12/2/17 # of Days ahead historical -212.99 Daily VWAP Rank historical 224 Next expected price historical $13,343.33 -2.25 $1,401.74 -2.00 $1,799.87 -1.75 $2,311.08 -1.50 $2,967.49 -1.25 $3,810.33 -1.14 $4,257.64 -1.00 $4,892.56 -0.75 $6,282.17 -0.50 $8,066.47 -0.25 $10,357.55 0.00 $13,299.35 0.25 $17,076.71 0.50 $21,926.93 0.75 $28,154.73 1.00 $36,151.39 1.25 $46,419.30 1.50 $59,603.57 1.75 $76,532.49 2.00 $98,269.67
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Date 7/2/18 VWAP $6,495.22 x 2907 y 8.778821839 a (slope) historical 0.003301694 b (intercept) historical -0.103785239 Rsq historical 0.861195 BETI historical -0.714 Expected Price historical $13,268.38 Actual price / expected price historical 48.95% Expected Date historical 11/27/17 # of Days ahead historical -216.35 Daily VWAP Rank historical 228 Next expected price historical $13,312.26 -2.25 $1,398.48 -2.00 $1,795.68 -1.75 $2,305.70 -1.50 $2,960.58 -1.25 $3,801.46 -1.14 $4,247.73 -1.00 $4,881.17 -0.75 $6,267.54 -0.50 $8,047.68 -0.25 $10,333.43 0.00 $13,268.38 0.25 $17,036.94 0.50 $21,875.87 0.75 $28,089.17 1.00 $36,067.21 1.25 $46,311.21 1.50 $59,464.77 1.75 $76,354.28 2.00 $98,040.83
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Date 7/1/18 VWAP $6,349.23 x 2906 y 8.756088215 a (slope) historical 0.003302203 b (intercept) historical -0.104279407 Rsq historical 0.861126 BETI historical -0.735 Expected Price historical $13,237.69 Actual price / expected price historical 47.96% Expected Date historical 11/20/17 # of Days ahead historical -222.50 Daily VWAP Rank historical 234 Next expected price historical $13,281.47 -2.25 $1,395.24 -2.00 $1,791.53 -1.75 $2,300.37 -1.50 $2,953.73 -1.25 $3,792.66 -1.14 $4,237.90 -1.00 $4,869.87 -0.75 $6,253.04 -0.50 $8,029.06 -0.25 $10,309.52 0.00 $13,237.69 0.25 $16,997.53 0.50 $21,825.26 0.75 $28,024.19 1.00 $35,983.77 1.25 $46,204.07 1.50 $59,327.20 1.75 $76,177.64 2.00 $97,814.02
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Date 6/30/18 VWAP $6,370.48 x 2905 y 8.759429974 a (slope) historical 0.003302728 b (intercept) historical -0.104787853 Rsq historical 0.861058 BETI historical -0.729 Expected Price historical $13,207.43 Actual price / expected price historical 48.23% Expected Date historical 11/21/17 # of Days ahead historical -220.76 Daily VWAP Rank historical 233 Next expected price historical $13,251.13 -2.25 $1,392.05 -2.00 $1,787.43 -1.75 $2,295.11 -1.50 $2,946.98 -1.25 $3,783.99 -1.14 $4,228.21 -1.00 $4,858.74 -0.75 $6,238.75 -0.50 $8,010.71 -0.25 $10,285.96 0.00 $13,207.43 0.25 $16,958.68 0.50 $21,775.38 0.75 $27,960.14 1.00 $35,901.53 1.25 $46,098.47 1.50 $59,191.61 1.75 $76,003.53 2.00 $97,590.46
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Thanks John for taking up the thread.
Thanks, you're welcome. Date 6/29/18 VWAP $5,936.40 x 2904 y 8.688857985 a (slope) historical 0.003303248 b (intercept) historical -0.105292582 Rsq historical 0.860990 BETI historical -0.797Expected Price historical $13,177.14 Actual price / expected price historical 45.05% Expected Date historical 10/30/17 # of Days ahead historical -241.39 Daily VWAP Rank historical 245 Next expected price historical $13,220.74 -2.25 $1,388.86 -2.00 $1,783.33 -1.75 $2,289.84 -1.50 $2,940.22 -1.25 $3,775.31 -1.14 $4,218.52 -1.00 $4,847.60 -0.75 $6,224.44 -0.50 $7,992.34 -0.25 $10,262.37 0.00 $13,177.14 0.25 $16,919.79 0.50 $21,725.43 0.75 $27,896.01 1.00 $35,819.19 1.25 $45,992.75 1.50 $59,055.86 1.75 $75,829.22 2.00 $97,366.64
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Date 6/28/18 VWAP $6,020.60 x 2903 y 8.702942127 a (slope) historical 0.003303818 b (intercept) historical -0.105844696 Rsq historical 0.860929 BETI historical -0.781 Expected Price historical $13,148.16 Actual price / expected price historical 45.79% Expected Date historical 11/3/17 # of Days ahead historical -236.42 Daily VWAP Rank historical 242 Next expected price historical $13,191.67 -2.25 $1,385.81 -2.00 $1,779.41 -1.75 $2,284.81 -1.50 $2,933.75 -1.25 $3,767.01 -1.14 $4,209.24 -1.00 $4,836.94 -0.75 $6,210.75 -0.50 $7,974.76 -0.25 $10,239.79 0.00 $13,148.16 0.25 $16,882.57 0.50 $21,677.65 0.75 $27,834.65 1.00 $35,740.40 1.25 $45,891.58 1.50 $58,925.95 1.75 $75,662.42 2.00 $97,152.47
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Date 6/27/18 VWAP $6,091.41 x 2902 y 8.714634951 a (slope) historical 0.003304376 b (intercept) historical -0.106385735 Rsq historical 0.860866 BETI historical -0.767 Expected Price historical $13,118.94 Actual price / expected price historical 46.43% Expected Date historical 11/6/17 # of Days ahead historical -232.17 Daily VWAP Rank historical 239 Next expected price historical $13,162.36 -2.25 $1,382.73 -2.00 $1,775.46 -1.75 $2,279.73 -1.50 $2,927.23 -1.25 $3,758.64 -1.14 $4,199.88 -1.00 $4,826.19 -0.75 $6,196.95 -0.50 $7,957.04 -0.25 $10,217.04 0.00 $13,118.94 0.25 $16,845.05 0.50 $21,629.47 0.75 $27,772.79 1.00 $35,660.97 1.25 $45,789.59 1.50 $58,795.00 1.75 $75,494.28 2.00 $96,936.57
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Here's a bunch of new charts. For ease of use, all my charts will have the following color coding: Orange - refers to "Current" data, ie Current BETI, Current Expected Price, etc. Red - refers to "Historical" data, ie Historical BETI, Historical Expected Price, etc. Green - all trendlines Chart 1 - Current BETI (orange) - This chart shows high and low of BETI value - This chart is fitted with all data from not only from that day and before that day, but also from all data up until today. - If you discount the first 6 months or so, this chart has much smaller amplitudes than Historical BETI - Current BETI and Historical BETI are always equal for today, thereafter, they drift apart - I personally think that Current BETI is more accurate than Historical BETI because uses all the data. However I am no math/stats major. - Someone more qualified can argue it is more relevant or less relevant than Historical BETI. Chart 2 - Historical BETI (red) - Chart should match jl2012's BETI chart he posts from time to time - This chart shows high and low of BETI value - As jl2012 says, for each day, a regression is fitted with all data of and before that day, so it is not a straight line. - Historical BETI only use the VWAP data from today and all previous days - Someone commented on the sloping green trendline. I think it's just an artifact of the mathematics, but don't know. Small tilt, don't think it means much Chart 3 - Log chart - Historical Expected Price (red) vs Current Expected Price (orange) - Chart should match jl2012's original chart on page 1 - All lines are natural logs of the argument other than the black BTC price - Red line is Historical Expected Price. (ln(Historical Expected Price)) - Orange line is Current Expected Price. (ln(Current Expected Price)) - Notice how much variance there is between the two? - Notice how they are currently converging? - Do you think the Orange Current Expected price is a trendline? - Let's see what happens if you put a trendline on it -- see Chart 4 - Blue line is VWAP. (ln(VWAP)) - Black line is actual BTC price. - y-axis is ln(price) Chart 4 - Same as Chart 3, but a green trendline added - A green trendline of the ln(VWAP) has been added R^2 0.861 - Notice that the green trendline perfectly overlaps the orange Current Expected Price? - Which looks like a better trendline, the orange/green Current Expected Price, or the red Historical Expected Price? - If you like the orange/green Current Expected Price better, do you also like orange Chart 1 better? - If you like the red Historical Price better, do you also like the red Chart 2 better? Chart 5 - Sanity check of Chart 3 - Notice the chart has the same structure as Chart 3? - But it a non log version - y-axis is actual BTC VWAP Chart 6 - Same as Chart 5, but with a green Exponential trendline thrown in - Why does the green trendline look like that? Chart 7 - Same as Chart 5, but with a green Linear trendline thrown in - Wild curve trendline - I think it resembles the popular Trolololo regression chart Later, I'll post some examples of how Expected values vs Current values change over time. For example, the VWAP Rankings change over time. Charts: https://imgur.com/a/sYJTGII
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Date 6/26/18 VWAP $6,186.03 x 2901 y 8.730048748 a (slope) historical 0.003304925 b (intercept) historical -0.106917332 Rsq historical 0.860802 BETI historical -0.750 Expected Price historical $13,089.53 Actual price / expected price historical 47.26% Expected Date historical 11/11/17 # of Days ahead historical -226.79 Daily VWAP Rank historical 236 Next expected price historical $13,132.86 -2.25 $1,379.63 -2.00 $1,771.48 -1.75 $2,274.62 -1.50 $2,920.67 -1.25 $3,750.21 -1.14 $4,190.47 -1.00 $4,815.37 -0.75 $6,183.06 -0.50 $7,939.20 -0.25 $10,194.14 0.00 $13,089.53 0.25 $16,807.29 0.50 $21,580.99 0.75 $27,710.54 1.00 $35,581.03 1.25 $45,686.95 1.50 $58,663.20 1.75 $75,325.05 2.00 $96,719.27
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Date 6/24/18 VWAP $5,987.55 x 2899 y 8.697437835 a (slope) historical 0.003305994 b (intercept) historical -0.107952957 Rsq historical 0.860669 BETI historical -0.778 Expected Price historical $13,030.17 Actual price / expected price historical 45.95% Expected Date historical 10/31/2017 19:05:20 # of Days ahead historical -235.2046313 Daily VWAP Rank historical 240 Next expected price historical $13,073.32 -2.25 $1,373.37 -2.00 $1,763.44 -1.75 $2,264.30 -1.50 $2,907.42 -1.25 $3,733.21 -1.00 $4,793.53 -0.75 $6,155.02 -0.50 $7,903.20 -0.25 $10,147.91 0.00 $13,030.17 0.25 $16,731.08 0.50 $21,483.13 0.75 $27,584.88 1.00 $35,419.69 1.25 $45,479.78 1.50 $58,397.19 1.75 $74,983.48 2.00 $96,280.69
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...? can you explain how the charts work a bit more?
OK. Give me a bit of time.
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Date 6/23/18 VWAP $6,137.49 x 2898 y 8.72217093 a (slope) historical 0.003306552 b (intercept) historical -0.108492314 Rsq historical 0.860605 BETI historical -0.751 Expected Price historical $13,001.15 Actual price / expected price historical 47.21% Expected Date historical 11/7/17 # of Days ahead historical -227.01 Daily VWAP Rank historical 235 Next expected price historical $13,044.21 -2.25 $1,370.31 -2.00 $1,759.51 -1.75 $2,259.26 -1.50 $2,900.95 -1.25 $3,724.89 -1.00 $4,782.85 -0.75 $6,141.31 -0.50 $7,885.59 -0.25 $10,125.30 0.00 $13,001.15 0.25 $16,693.80 0.50 $21,435.27 0.75 $27,523.43 1.00 $35,340.78 1.25 $45,378.46 1.50 $58,267.09 1.75 $74,816.43 2.00 $96,066.19
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OK. I hear and understand your point and it would be interesting to see the results you speak of.
But what about the 'current' chart? One can argue that since we are now in the future and have more data, it is best to apply that data going backwards to make a more accurate chart. At this point I am not convinced the historical chart is as accurate as the current chart.
And the current chart already has a perfectly flat 0 trendline.
Date 6/22/18 VWAP $6,283.20 x 2897 y 8.745634836 a (slope) historical 0.003307090 b (intercept) historical -0.109013175 Rsq historical 0.860539 BETI historical -0.725 Expected Price historical $12,971.70 Actual price / expected price historical 48.44% Expected Date historical 11/14/17 # of Days ahead historical -219.19 Daily VWAP Rank historical 234 Next expected price historical $13,014.67 -2.25 $1,367.21 -2.00 $1,755.53 -1.75 $2,254.14 -1.50 $2,894.38 -1.25 $3,716.45 -1.00 $4,772.02 -0.75 $6,127.40 -0.50 $7,867.73 -0.25 $10,102.37 0.00 $12,971.70 0.25 $16,655.99 0.50 $21,386.71 0.75 $27,461.08 1.00 $35,260.73 1.25 $45,275.67 1.50 $58,135.11 1.75 $74,646.96 2.00 $95,848.59
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Early indications: BETI dropped to roughly -0.725.
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I see what you are saying. I'd first have to see how to generate all the coordinates of that green line. Right now its just an auto generated green line.
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ok so the trend line in green of beti appears to be sloping down,
but the beti is quoted to against zero, but would you not have to move the zero the average of the beti or some such?
tl;dr where is your 0 and why?
I made 2 charts. "Historical" and "Current". I think zero is still zero and relevant in both of the charts. "Historical" chart computes its regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on that day's parameters and all days preceding it. However as new regression becomes available, it never uses any future data to recompute the past. "Current" chart re-computes all past regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on all knowledge to date using current data regression parameters. Past BETI values will change. The latest BETI (todays) will always match on each chart. Thereafter, the values will diverge. My naming may be backwards or confusing. Perhaps a better name for "Historical" would have been "Instantaneous", and maybe I should call "Current", "Historical". I guess its all the way you look at it. I am not sure of the significance of the green line. I am no maths nor stats major. Perhaps jl2012 will be back and chime in.
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hi, it's possible to use the sum of more exchanges (3 or 5 major) to calculate VWAP? Thanks
Yes. But it would take a bit of work to gather the data sources. Merge and sort them, then I can rerun the calculations. If someone wants to send me the merged file.
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