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If anyones curious, BFL also canceled my order after sending a demand letter asking for answers. Frankly if a company is only willing to respond to people who complain by canceling their orders after holding their money for a year then they can't be considered to honest or reputable. I'm glad they gave me a refund and I hope they continue to fail. I urge anyone with a recent or not so recent order to get a refund. Their actions are unconscionable and anyone placing an order today won't see anything for a VERY long time.
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I would love to know what differences you made in implementation to get down to 45C for 600mhz. That seems like a really drastic improvement.
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But my FPGA still runs fine at 600MHz.
I guess it's stretching the limits. Also it could vary chip to chip, since -3 speed grade has a Fmax of 601.32MHz Did you just modify the clock on fpgaminers code? I upped the clock to 450mhz and it was running stable at 70C. The chip is rated to 85C, what temperature were you at at 600mhz |
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rwDJqgx4ceKYvyeLhUf4AP7yN6r2x5a7nv
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What is up with the processing times on the bets?! Part of the appeal of SD is that people find out and get paid quickly. I'm seeing bets (winning and losing) only come back after 100+ confirmations
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Hmmm, what I think you're seeing is actually satoshidice fudging the payout multiplier and to make nice even numbers as well as you end up compounding some differences because the payout multiplier is rounded to three decimal places. I think maybe the less than 8000 bet should be 7.980x or something, but 8x looks a whole lot better. I thought that computing the expected values of each bet would illuminate this but it's just confusing me more. Since the house edge is supposed to be 1.9% all of the EV's should all be around 0.981 but they're not, so unless I'm missing something satoshidice is fudging some numbers, making their house edge a little fatter than they're letting on 0.976 since .005 is returned with losing bets. Then the question is why are there bets that seem to pay out more? Feel free to double check my math, also the odds of winning are only truncated for display but that math is based off of calculating the actual odds: Bet Odds Payout Expected Value
1 0.000015259 64000.000 0.9765625000
2 0.000030518 31981.573 0.9760001526
4 0.000061035 15990.789 0.9760003052
8 0.000122070 7995.397 0.9760006104
16 0.000244141 3997.701 0.9760012207
32 0.000488281 1998.853 0.9760024414
64 0.000976563 999.429 0.9760048828
128 0.001953125 499.717 0.9760097656
256 0.003906250 249.861 0.9760195313
512 0.007812500 124.933 0.9760390625
1000 0.015258789 63.968 0.9760742188
1500 0.022888184 42.647 0.9761123657
2000 0.030517578 31.987 0.9761657715
3000 0.045776367 21.326 0.9762268066
4000 0.061035156 15.996 0.9763183594
6000 0.091552734 10.666 0.9765014648
8000 0.122070313 8.000 0.9765625000
12000 0.183105469 5.335 0.9768676758
16000 0.244140625 4.003 0.9772949219
24000 0.366210938 2.670 0.9777832031
32000 0.488281250 2.004 0.9785156250
32768 0.500000000 1.957 0.9785000000
48000 0.732421875 1.338 0.9799804688
52000 0.793457031 1.235 0.9799194336
56000 0.854492188 1.147 0.9801025391
60000 0.915527344 1.071 0.9805297852
64000 0.976562500 1.004 0.9804687500
There is an interesting correlation though , the less than 60000 bet is the highest EV and less than 8000 is a bit lower with the less than 2 bet being the lowest. What happens with your strategy if you try a martingale on the less than 2 (ignoring mins and max bets for hypothetical purposes)? |
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Woah, Max bets have been raised. You can now bet BTC500 on alot of bets.... anyone want to loan me BTC10000? I swear I'll gamble it away and make things interesting in here for atleast a little bit.
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Looks like that same big spender is back: Details 2012-12-13 19:33:19 lessthan 32000 e5e1cda3 116c4735 1dhAwVy 100.00000000 LOSE 0.49950000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:33:10 lessthan 8000 e5e1cda3 88b5b4e8 1dhAwVy 25.00000000 LOSE 0.12450000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:33:06 lessthan 16000 e5e1cda3 5e26d819 1dhAwVy 90.00000000 LOSE 0.44950000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:33:05 lessthan 32768 e5e1cda3 7af3b26a 1dhAwVy 110.00000000 LOSE 0.54950000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:59 lessthan 24000 e5e1cda3 4430da1f 1dhAwVy 50.00000000 LOSE 0.24950000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:57 lessthan 12000 e5e1cda3 90e8c978 1dhAwVy 30.00000000 LOSE 0.14950000 38120
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:49 lessthan 8000 09cbbd68 2d6e08d8 1EP4rM8 25.00000000 LOSE 0.12450000 19769
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:41 lessthan 12000 09cbbd68 d7dc54d9 1EP4rM8 30.00000000 LOSE 0.14950000 19769
Details 2012-12-13 19:32:35 lessthan 16000 09cbbd68 6864302e 1EP4rM8 90.00000000 LOSE 0.44950000 19769
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:27 lessthan 8000 438e367f e6178667 17sjYPa PENDING 25.00000000 LOSE 0.12450000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:19 lessthan 12000 d00de002 fe9ff550 1Di6ux3 PENDING 30.00000000 WIN 160.05734000 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:15 lessthan 48000 438e367f 1cc76258 17sjYPa PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 66.87776666 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:13 lessthan 16000 438e367f c4dbd4c4 17sjYPa PENDING 90.00000000 WIN 360.24214000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:11 lessthan 32768 438e367f 1b5d0f90 17sjYPa PENDING 110.00000000 WIN 215.26950000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:09 lessthan 12000 438e367f ae1cfeb5 17sjYPa PENDING 30.00000000 LOSE 0.14950000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:08 lessthan 24000 438e367f 94b91cc5 17sjYPa PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 133.50603333 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:07 lessthan 48000 d00de002 c0ba3bc9 1Di6ux3 PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 66.87776666 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:04 lessthan 24000 d00de002 bf22495e 1Di6ux3 PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 133.50603333 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:02 lessthan 16000 d00de002 bfbcf344 1Di6ux3 PENDING 90.00000000 WIN 360.24214000 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:29:00 lessthan 32000 438e367f a6cd4ecf 17sjYPa PENDING 100.00000000 WIN 200.38430000 14629
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:54 lessthan 32768 d00de002 40db7752 1Di6ux3 PENDING 110.00000000 WIN 215.26950000 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:53 lessthan 8000 d00de002 4115d3c2 1Di6ux3 PENDING 25.00000000 WIN 200.00930000 6052
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:46 lessthan 8000 28511504 6d92758a 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 25.00000000 WIN 200.00930000 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:43 lessthan 16000 28511504 70c307c5 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 90.00000000 WIN 360.24214000 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:41 lessthan 48000 28511504 cbb9a41c 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 66.87776666 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:39 lessthan 32000 28511504 f758ec85 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 100.00000000 WIN 200.38430000 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:38 lessthan 24000 28511504 0af1b599 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 50.00000000 WIN 133.50603333 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:34 lessthan 32768 28511504 c19d8c01 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 110.00000000 WIN 215.26950000 1844
Details 2012-12-13 19:28:32 lessthan 12000 28511504 bc444ef6 1Mn9Zn1 PENDING 30.00000000 WIN 160.05734000 1844
I need to get some of shares of SatoshiDice. |
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PR worth this. It's not really great PR when a casino wins big. No gambler wants to be the one bankrupted, an outcome like this wouldn't make me want to gamble.... |
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Woah some wild crazy bets (this is just a sample, there were plenty starting just after midnight UTC): Details 2012-12-12 04:49:04 lessthan 60000 d45ece42 83495f48 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 WIN 267.76256666 28858
Details 2012-12-12 04:48:48 lessthan 48000 d45ece42 5b842f2c 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 WIN 334.39083333 28858
Details 2012-12-12 04:48:14 lessthan 32768 d45ece42 dd656bbc 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 199.00000000 WIN 389.44250000 28858
Details 2012-12-12 04:47:57 lessthan 32000 d45ece42 fdd06100 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 152.12410000 WIN 304.83307353 28858
Details 2012-12-12 04:47:12 lessthan 60000 77a2b6ed 5acd7c4a 18pEcNu CONFIRMED 250.00000000 WIN 267.76256666 55163
Details 2012-12-12 04:47:07 lessthan 32000 d45ece42 5f0a67cf 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 120.95680000 WIN 242.37854176 28858
Details 2012-12-12 04:40:22 lessthan 48000 77a2b6ed debb775b 18pEcNu CONFIRMED 250.00000000 LOSE 1.24950000 55163
Details 2012-12-12 04:40:21 lessthan 32000 77a2b6ed eaf115fb 18pEcNu CONFIRMED 152.12410000 LOSE 0.76012050 55163
Details 2012-12-12 04:40:19 lessthan 32000 77a2b6ed edd6cdea 18pEcNu CONFIRMED 120.95680000 LOSE 0.60428400 55163
Details 2012-12-12 04:40:03 lessthan 32768 77a2b6ed 66abe604 18pEcNu CONFIRMED 199.00000000 LOSE 0.99450000 55163
Details 2012-12-12 04:33:39 lessthan 32768 116112ae 338ce3e3 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 199.00000000 WIN 389.44250000 2666
Details 2012-12-12 04:33:38 lessthan 60000 116112ae 7f1574c8 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 WIN 267.76256666 2666
Details 2012-12-12 04:33:29 lessthan 32000 116112ae 64670e69 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 152.12410000 WIN 304.83307353 2666
Details 2012-12-12 04:33:28 lessthan 32000 116112ae eeffb8c6 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 120.95680000 WIN 242.37854176 2666
Details 2012-12-12 04:33:27 lessthan 48000 116112ae 61b27161 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 WIN 334.39083333 2666
Details 2012-12-12 04:29:57 lessthan 32768 8190aa1a 6ac3470e 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 199.00000000 WIN 389.44250000 15347
Details 2012-12-12 04:29:55 lessthan 32000 8190aa1a 544d50fe 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 120.95680000 WIN 242.37854176 15347
Details 2012-12-12 04:29:51 lessthan 48000 8190aa1a 70f1fd22 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 WIN 334.39083333 15347
Details 2012-12-12 04:29:50 lessthan 60000 8190aa1a c5f32e01 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 WIN 267.76256666 15347
Details 2012-12-12 04:29:49 lessthan 32000 8190aa1a 4b1eeda0 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 152.12410000 WIN 304.83307353 15347
Details 2012-12-12 04:26:18 lessthan 32000 aa1ffbd5 e16f9367 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 152.12410000 WIN 304.83307353 16291
Details 2012-12-12 04:26:08 lessthan 32768 aa1ffbd5 f6e192f5 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 199.00000000 WIN 389.44250000 16291
Details 2012-12-12 04:26:04 lessthan 60000 aa1ffbd5 c25109eb 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 WIN 267.76256666 16291
Details 2012-12-12 04:25:48 lessthan 32000 aa1ffbd5 03b3ad6f 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 120.95680000 WIN 242.37854176 16291
Details 2012-12-12 04:25:32 lessthan 48000 aa1ffbd5 56ddb989 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 WIN 334.39083333 16291
Details 2012-12-12 04:19:34 lessthan 32768 10e5dc1a 67708866 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 199.00000000 LOSE 0.99450000 65016
Details 2012-12-12 04:19:27 lessthan 60000 10e5dc1a 39638962 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 LOSE 1.24950000 65016
Details 2012-12-12 04:19:26 lessthan 48000 10e5dc1a 2db2698b 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 250.00000000 LOSE 1.24950000 65016
Details 2012-12-12 04:19:20 lessthan 32000 10e5dc1a 1c1a9057 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 152.12410000 LOSE 0.76012050 65016
Details 2012-12-12 04:19:18 lessthan 32000 10e5dc1a 37a93a5e 1EP4rM8 CONFIRMED 120.95680000 LOSE 0.60428400 65016
Judging from the raised limits, it doesn't look like this worked out for whomever overall though |
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Perhaps a disgruntled customer? lost too many bitcoins, and wants revenge. Maybe trying to make satoshi bleed a little by causing the site to spend btc (tx fees) to send them back? Perhaps the competition? (Is there any?)
Also it could be less nefarious, some one codes a martingale bot incorrectly and doesn't check on it for a while. that's not likely after seeing how its still going for so long.
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BFGminer also not working on my RPi + 2 BFL singles :-/
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Seriously, starting a Martingale betting with 16 BTC @ <24000, doubling the bet each round, AND knowing the max bet -> 250 BTC. Actually it looks like it was part of a longer martingale string starting at 1BTC 2012-11-26 02:57:04 lessthan 24000 b3a47556 6668d56e 1J6CWGD CONFIRMED 8.00000000 LOSE 0.03950000 26537
2012-11-26 02:55:59 lessthan 24000 9655ceda 2604fcda 12EefkA CONFIRMED 4.00000000 LOSE 0.01950000 27720
2012-11-26 02:55:03 lessthan 24000 1bed626e e55adea6 12EefkA CONFIRMED 2.00000000 LOSE 0.00950000 35178
2012-11-26 02:52:54 lessthan 24000 b6101fc4 30a0e637 1FVVboH CONFIRMED 1.00000000 LOSE 0.00450000 46671
The percent chance of losing this string is 1.65% |
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I've had no problems with 2 BFL singles running through BFGMiner on my RPi, though be sure to read and install EVERYTHING for bfgminer. Its a neat little device and should handle a few more without a problem. Just make sure you have a powered USB Hub and a good power supply for your RPi.
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I have a stuck bet (~10 hours). Whats the best way to get it unstuck? message fireduck or evoorhees? wait?
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I was having trouble getting my raspberry pi to recognize my BFL's. After some fiddling and alot of reading, it came down to running: $sudo usermod <username> -a -G dialout . |
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That is a 0.47017% chance of loosing again based on 48.8281% odds, correct? (0.488281^8) Not quite, 0.488281^8 = 0.32312%. But you ended up with the right number anyways. you have a 48.8281% chance of winning, and a 51.1719% chance of losing, so losing 8 in a row would be (0.511719^8) or 0.47017% |
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If you look at the difference between small bets and big bets, the small bets aren't winning or losing particularly well but it just seems that theres a few bigger bets that are just killing the house. If you think about it, it doesn't take alot of big winning bets to hurt the house.
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Want to be part of bitcoin history? Need a house in Atlanta? (looks at CampBX) Does your wallet have too many digits for comfort? Well I'm currently selling my town house in Atlanta, GA. It's pretty spacious and has served me well but its time for me to move on so I thought why not put it up for sale in bitcoin? The house's MLS listing is below. http://fmls.fusionmls.com/DotNet/Pub/EmailView.aspx?r=666262059&s=FML&t=FMLInformation that may be of interest to fellow bitcoiners and isn't on the MLS: The house was wired with cat5 for the telephones but I've replaced all the jacks for cat5 and run some extra ethernet through some of the air ducts so the house is fully wired with gigabit ethernet. It's capable of getting 105mbit comcast internet, its pretty sweet. So for the mechanics of such a sale, it is up for negotiation but I was thinking the exchange rate could be set at (24 hr mtgox rate -12.5%) to accommodate for variation in market depth. I just want to insure that I can actually get the amount of money I need from the sale. Note: Please don't bother my realtor with questions about bitcoin or how a sale in bitcoin would work. If you're serious then lets talk. |
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