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When I first saw JD the site profit was 0.24%, now its 0.3%. What was it at the low point after that whale won a bunch?
We recently broke 0.3% for the first time since nakowa played back in September. It prompted me to make charts showing how the profit percentage has changed over time. These charts show the actual percentage over time, and corresponding percentages:   I am interested to know peoples real life investment returns on JD if anyone would share. Cheers
There's only one investor who: * invested on the day of launch, and * hasn't touched that investment since I wish I have made an account on the day of launch and put 1 BTC into it to have a reference to show people, but I didn't. So here's that investor's history:  He invested 0.01077792 in June 2013 and now has 0.01437991. That's a 33.42% growth in 10 months. what tool are you using to make these graphs, i like it, they are clean and simple. |
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I have read wikipedia about kelly criterion but i dont really get how much bigger the risk is when using kelly 2% instead 1%. I mean doesnt it mean for JD that at kelly 1% 1% of the house can be won. I see JD is only at 0.5% what is even below the optimum kelly describes. But even with 2%... its a percent value... the house cant really be beaten this way or am i wrong? It can go down very much but each new bet with max win of the house 2% means the house will be less than before... so the max win will be less then. If it would be a fixed value then of course... at 2% the house could be beaten in 50 wins. Which sounds like it will happen very rare. But its not even a fixed value. Its a percent value. That means you cant win back the losses as fast as you could with fixed values but the same goes with the losses. They will slow down. I dont see yet why 2% should be so much worse than 1%.
read: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/(it's great site by the way, in general) and: http://compoundingmyinterests.com/compounding-the-blog/2012/10/12/how-did-ed-thorp-win-in-blackjack-and-the-stock-market.htmland http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm(see Q5) If edge is 1%, and you wager 2% every time, the house bankroll won't grow. Wager >2%, and it will actually shrink over time. He claims that at 2% no growth will happen... really didnt thought that and its still hard to believe... maybe i should run some script to test this out. Anyway... this would only apply if someone plays really the max profit. If he plays half max profit then 2% kelly would be 1% kelly in reality... I cant find out the formula values to get to 1% as ideal kelly value for just-dice. What are the values for the formula? the formula is (house edge / bet variance) house edge = 0,01 variance depends on bet type, with standard 2x (0,495 chance to win) bets you have variance = 1 so thats where the 1% as ideal number for max win comes from, now not all bets are made as standard 2x (the lowest variance bets) so depending on what percentage of bets are made with higher variance, the more we should lower the optimal max win number. TLDR: optimal max win for just dice is not 1% but <1% |
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Not at all. All operations on TREZOR require the user to enter a PIN and a one-time password (OTP) . The attacker would have to guess your PIN which is very difficult because the one-time password makes brute-force attack almost impossible.
Aha - so it does use a PIN although I am guessing that the PIN is being typed in on the PC (so is vulnerable to key logging). I think if the PIN were to be entered into the device directly (i.e. no chance of key logging) then it would be a much better (although requiring at least a numeric keypad - a more expensive) solution. The pin is typed that way: Client displays: OOO OOO OOO trezor display (changes every time): 954 128 367 So no chance for keyloggers. That is sweet! Man, I wish I had a BTC to buy one! if you dont have BTC, you dont need one |
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Also increasing house edge for big bet is completely laughable, even Las-Vegas would not think of doing such a thing. Why punish a high-roller for giving more action and volume? In Las-Vegas they would actually lower their edge to get those players.
Does any Vegas casino allow a player to win 1% of the casino's bankroll on a single hand? probably, there have been cases where irresponsible managers let the fish play so long they busted the whole casino. |
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why should dooglas leave his money in? the whole point of investing and divesting is buy low, sell high. he'll be back when he thinks its a good investment opportunity for his risk appetite.
you might think the same, or the opposite, and thats fine. a whale could come in and lose big....
lol, you cant be serious. explain to me exactly what is your investing/disinvesting strategy when the EV is fixed to 1%. you are implying that you should buy low and sell high, how exactly are you going to do that when these highs and lows are based 100% on luck with slightly upward trend so there is no way to predict them. |
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funny how very recently everybody wanted option to increase the max amount risked per roll, now after one unlucky downswing everybody wants to decrease it.
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wow thats pretty sick, looking at the numbers from the last 5 days the site should be up about 2500 BTC just from the whale alone. but if he keeps up playing this kind of volume as he played last 5 days i have no doubt we will get to the black numbers very soon.
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lol, he just won 2200 BTC in 11 straight wins in like 20 seconds. sick life
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celeste is on monkey tilt right now, betting 111 or 222 BTC like every 5 seconds
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^ exactly, keep it as it is
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2013-07-15T15:11:39.537Z (1) <dooglus> martingale: no fractional reserve. I paid the loss out of my pocket
And then I realised: there was no loss. Some fake coins moved from an allegedly hacked account into investor accounts. I moved them back. do you have contact on that whale? if so you should give him back that 120 he sent you and happily invite him back to JD. |
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If they do that, there should be a minimum amount to get in the investor chat room like 5 BTC invested.
great idea but don't make it just for investors, make it also for regular players. something like min X BTC invested and wagered combined needed for access to that chat room also i think that dooglus should have different color in chat |
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unless it was fault on JD side, he should not be refunded
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i think high max profit is what attracts whales, more whales means bigger swings but also higher EV, keep it as it is
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lol, its crazy, his current min bet is 50BTC
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madness  |
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I just read this thread up to this point. It is almost all nonsense. The capabilities of quantum computers have been describe well in other forum topics.
Bottom line: Quantum computers can't do anything, except this: 15 = 3 * 5;
15 = (3 * 5) 48% of time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl3o236gdp8 |
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what seems strange to me is that after giveaway the XRP appreciated by 20%
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