Show Posts
|
Pages: [1] 2 »
|
thanks, sorry for the dummy question...
|
|
|
expecting a positive return in fiat is irrelevant to me. bitcoin mining may be the only activity to analyze only in terms of bitcoin, without reference to fiat at all.
you spend some bitcoin for hardware at T0. You start mining at T1. You must plan full bitcoin break-even in at most 3 month time after T1, otherwise, you're likely to have lost your money.
|
|
|
My theory is, once the blood starts flowing in the streets come January or February, and the common miner comes to the realization they will not hit ROI, they will stop buying new hardware. Then, and only then would be the appropriate time to buy. Once the "overeager" money is wiped out.
Thoughts?
Agreed. I cannot think of the current situation in words different than a bubble. However, what happens is that people waiting for asic *will* put them to work. So considering the current level of demand, the difficulty will continue to jump for a while. I have improved my estimation using the current next difficulty estimate (78% increase, not 100%). The price to reasonably pay for a miner is in mBTC. This price involves one month delivery security (yes - optimistic) and one month insurance against huge difficulty increase ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fdl.dropboxusercontent.com%2Fu%2F4813922%2Fmining%2520profitability.png&t=663&c=RBgb3y4vbjGi8Q)
|
|
|
The controlled method is using contract with TSMC based suppliers to aim the R.O.I
Currently, I only trust ASICMiner's, GPUs and Pyramining as Pyramining is doing the right job.
quoting pyramining: "Investing in Pyramining is indeed very profitable: the complete reward is estimated to be reached in less than 43 months." To me, this is definitively a scam. Pay first, get your money back in 43!!! months :-)
|
|
|
I really hope bitcoin reaches $200 quick so I can get equipment in the bitcoin store for half price! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) If bitcoin value doubles, then so does the market price per GH, all other things being equal. So nope, aint gonna happen. except that the market is 4 times too expensive (considering the 3$/Gh january offer), and that soon people will start understanding this. So if the value of a BTC does not change, the price of the mining equipment must.
|
|
|
My conclusion would be that mining hardware is 4 times overpriced. Price is not simply a question of supply, but also of demand.
ok, you're right. Unless the complete asic design/fabrication costs more than we can imagine. At current BTC price and prepaid mining equipment cost, no offer on the market is viable. So crowdfunding should stop.
|
|
|
Some of people paid 80-110 btc for jupiter with vat and hosting. They will never get those btc back.
sure, lots of money went in smoke here.
|
|
|
an answer here: http://laurent.henocque.com/post/2013/09/16/On-Bitcoin-Mining-and-the-vallue-of-Bitcoinat current mtgox price 139$, you should not pay now more than 16 dollars/GH if you expect mid october delivery 11 dollars/GH if you expect early november delivery 8 dollars/GH if you expect mid november delivery 6 dollars/GH if you expect early december delivery 4 dollars/GH if you expect mid december delivery 3 dollars/GH if you expect early january 2014 delivery this is for raw break even. If you want to be on the safe side, these figures should be divided by four (one month delay, plus targetting to double your BTC) or the value of a BTC should be multiplied by 4.
|
|
|
Deciding to mine is an important matter, also because this is a contribution to the network stability. How much can one decide to risk in this anyway?. I decided to share my analysis of the situation here (sorry, I don't know if such a self linking is ok with the TOU): http://laurent.henocque.com/post/2013/09/16/On-Bitcoin-Mining-and-the-vallue-of-BitcoinMy conclusion is that to account for risks, the value of a BTC is grossly fourfold underestimated. The reason is that to mine, one must expect obtaining more BTC (not $) than by buying them now. BTC break even can be theoretically expected using mining hardware paid today (assuming 139$/BTC - but bitstamp rates make it worse) at: 16 dollars/GH if you expect mid october delivery 11 dollars/GH if you expect early november delivery 8 dollars/GH if you expect mid november delivery 6 dollars/GH if you expect early december delivery 4 dollars/GH if you expect mid december delivery 3 dollars/GH if you expect early january 2014 delivery ... However, if you look at the table, the correct figures are in BTC To be on a 'safe' side should mean to at least anticipate a one month late delivery, and to expect doubling the BTC. So 3$ / Gh paid today for a delivery in january is not good. I would not accept to pay more than 0.7 $ for this. More badly, a KNCMiner Saturn expected 'sometime in October, or November' will never mine the BTC it cost (from June to now). I may be wrong indeed... (edit - typos)
|
|
|
Sometimes the best way to trigger adoption is to forbid usage. The french kingdom and Parmentier did the same to foster adoption of potatoes. They claimed it was private to the court, used military guards in the day to keep the fields but they leaked recipes... https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antoine_Parmentier#cite_note-6
|
|
|
achète un bitcoin, tu ne le regretteras pas. et garde le sur le wallet de ton site d'échange, ou alors sur blockchain.
|
|
|
when people sell mass amounts, this drives the market downwards, when others want to buy large amounts, they should accept to take the market upwards. this is fair
|
|
|
rpkDcgsFcnEhvP2XV8Zo2AvQEdUwk7TYfe
|
|
|
278 BTC sent.
ok, now, I have to figure out what all this really means... @Tradefortress, if you really have a 1 trillion btc balance (-278...), does that mean that if someone trusts you for 21 million, you may send 21 million btc ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) That can later be distributed to more trusting people? How could you manage to achieve the trillion btc balance?
|
|
|
thanks Azrael, you helped me get unlocked. I'll reciprocate.
|
|
|
rpkDcgsFcnEhvP2XV8Zo2AvQEdUwk7TYfe
|
|
|
Lol, i cant trade the bitcoins, seems like i only own debt.
ok for me. thinks don't work at all for me for the moment. and I discovered that in ripple economy 50 == 0 I'm curious to see further details of this, while spending my newbie time. rpkDcgsFcnEhvP2XV8Zo2AvQEdUwk7TYfe
|
|
|
Thanks again Azrael, however this does not show up. Did you use rpkDcgsFcnEhvP2XV8Zo2AvQEdUwk7TYfe?
Yes ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fanonymouse.org%2Fcgi-bin%2Fanon-www.cgi%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Fanonymouse.org%2Fcgi-bin%2Fanon-www.cgi%2Fhttp%3A%2F%2Fimg607.imageshack.us%2Fimg607%2F1688%2Fsemttulofdi.png&t=663&c=8k8nyt-NfjYFdQ) ok, and did you do it twice? I got 50 (now 49.999999...) from a first send, no second one. (edit) however, from your screen capture, i see that you have a different 'sent to' address. This is not rpkDcgsFcnEhvP2XV8Zo2AvQEdUwk7TYfe
|
|
|
Thanks again Azrael, however this does not show up. Did you use rpkDcgsFcnEhvP2XV8Zo2AvQEdUwk7TYfe? Well, thanks Azrael, this is damn cool! rp12b2w3qKUnYDx2fEfoMqPSNrABWb4gEf could anyone send me 50 ripples there:
rpkDcgsFcnEhvP2XV8Zo2AvQEdUwk7TYfe
so I can apply for the one bitcoin giveaway ;-), I'd like to test the trust feature too ...
Done ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) So let me tell you what happened next :-) - I have 50 XRP thanks to Azrael. - I fill the grant trust form for 100 BTC - The page answers red: you need 50.000000012 XRP to to this. I try to check my balance: it disconnects me - I reconnect: it says I only have 49 XRP, and the trust area is blank, saying I need more ripples (it says a hundred would be good...) So I apologize Azrael, I lost one of the precious XRP you gave me. Maybe can you help a bit more? Cheers Sent 50XRP
|
|
|
|