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Here is my quick list of reasons for which Bitcoin might disappear (going in the order of probability):
1. Regulatory ban: majority of countries decide Bitcoin is a shady parallel economy that cannot be controlled and better just prohibited; e.g. closing down exchanges, closing gates between fiat and crypto worlds...
2. Government hack: destroying the system with some kind of brute force (51% attack) or new technology (quantum computers) for which only a few countries in the world have enough resources and knowledge (e.g. China, Russia, maybe USA).
3. Regular hack: a hacker exploits the systems and tries to use it for own good or just destroy it for fun and accolades (remember Ethereum...)
4. Technological failure: one of those BIPs goes terribly wrong…
5. Competition: other currencies do the job much better (faster and cheaper transactions etc.)
6. Other: no more marketing, people get tired of it, new technology comes, too many frauds, the impractical volatility, no use in the real economy etc.
Yeah, you pointed out something I didn't mention in the list, the BIPs that might be gone wrong and open an exploit for abuse. Another thing is, the debate between developers/users with conflicting interest could make the progress of Bitcoin future upgrade become stagnant as well. About the brute force attack is very unlikely to happen, it's simply not worth the attack at least at this moment |
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I believe most people misunderstood what I try to discuss here, I'm not talking about the investment approach or my portfolio structure that's concentrated with Bitcoin.
I wanted to discuss, specifically "What could be gone wrong with Bitcoin, that could render it into worthless"
So far these are what someone pointed out, and my opinion:
1. When the government of countries started to ban Bitcoin, making it illegal to use.
My opinion is this is very very unlikely to happen, governments of countries can't even work together on solving a single problem such as global warming, or eradicating poverty from less developed countries, so if we're talking about governments reach consensus to ban Bitcoin together is not likely to happen, think of what's the benefits they can all share? What about a few top influencing countries banning Bitcoin? Look at China, does it work?
2. When people stop using it.
Very unlikely to happen as well, it's like saying when people will stop using FIAT?
3. When miners switch to other altcoins
Not likely to happen there's a lot of huge mining company or individuals has invested lots into Bitcoin, and it's mining operation, simply switching into some other altcoin is just going to harm them financially, look at those who switched to BCC then switch it back to BTC.
4. Being replace by altcoins / forked coin of BTC
This could happen but it's not likely to "replace" but work parallel with Bitcoin, it's like we have Gold, silver, platinum in real world, so it could happen in Cryptocurrencies world, forked coin is fine then, as I would be having forked coin and the original Bitcoin
5. Stronger computing technology like quantum computing
I've been thinking more into the code of Bitcoin, however, I wasn't a programmer, won't be able to understand as much as possible, but from what know is, Bitcoin can be upgraded, updated, so it doesn't sound like a major problem as well.
Everything being said above is just my opinion, especially point 5, I'm not a programmer and wasn't good a reading code, so correct me if I'm wrong or share your experience? Thanks
hope we can make this a good discussions
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I also wanted to be mentally prepared for the worst possible scenario.
Here you go: Bitcoin can lose 99.9% if it's value. Done. [/sarcasm] Why would you prepare "mentally", if you can prepare by spreading your investment? All eggs in one basket is a very risky strategy, it's great as long as it goes up, but you're literally risking everything. What's the possible scenario that could render Bitcoin into worthless, and what're the probabilities of that happening? If crypto taught me one thing, it's that everything is possible. Most Bitcoins are still in the hands of a few people with very strong hands, but if they start panic-selling, the market gets flooded with cheap coins. It can also go up 10x or more. I'm betting on that, but I don't risk everything. In retrospect, I could have had 20 times more now if I would have gone all-in when I started with crypto. To answer your questions, mainly it's because as I said I'm 21 this year, I still have a lot of time to recover almost any lost, most people at my years only have debt, thus my risk-tolerance level is high. I do understand the benefits of diversification as a finance major, and I did plan to do so in near future, but not until Bitcoin hit my target price. Another way of saying is, put all my eggs in one basket and watch them carefully, I'm so far devoted almost all my time in Bitcoin, I trade Bitcoin as my full-time income source, so I watching Bitcoin really closely. I'm more interested to know what could go wrong with Bitcoin, instead of my investment approach. |
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I'm now 21, and I have about 99.9% of my wealth in Bitcoin, I started to accumulate since 2013 till today, almost going to buy every time there's a dip (consolidation).
Many people have same goal/dream like me, hoping that Bitcoin will grant them earlier retirement or luxury life, but what could go wrong?
What's the possible scenario that could render Bitcoin into worthless, and what're the probabilities of that happening?
Don't get me wrong, I love Bitcoin, and I like how it makes us able to afford luxurious stuff, but I also wanted to be mentally prepared for the worst possible scenario.
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I really hope it can slow down a little bit, so I could accumulate more before it's too expensive to buy even 1 satoshis.
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I loan now.
No need to buy when things are so expensive ... and Bitcoin value evolve more quickly than ... leasing cost.
You loan what? You mean in Poloniex? I was considering getting on the loan game to get some BTC going with my stack, but honestly at the end of the day it's an huge gamble. At any given time, Poloniex can get "hacked" and then your coins are lost. We all know that keeping big amounts of BTC on exchange is a mistake, and to make gains in the loan game we all know you must be holding a big amount... and it ends up feeling a ponzi. It's very tempting to have money parked there and make more money doing nothing tho. That's the exact reason why I don't put my Bitcoin in exchanges for long-term, only when I'm going to trade them. |
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Like SSS, I started with this spreadsheet and made some tweaks. Thanks, that's exactly something I'm looking for!  |
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Exit plan is a must for all the bitcoin community. (The same for altcoins as well.)
It may undergo serious dumps and pumps but having a certain exit point is a must to realize the money you generated from it. For me, in 2025, I want it to be 50.000 dollars so that I can be rich.
The longer it sticks around and the higher it gets the sillier an exit plan looks. When half the world's millionaire's won't be able to obtain one coin they'll look on old school holders as mentalists as they swap their precious coin for a load of inflating crap which they'll have to spend the rest of their days trying to protect from becoming worthless. By all means mitigate some risk, but abandoning the thing that made you rich and having those proceeds slowly eaten alive looks like the reverse of what's sensible. From your saying, if we have to live without fiat, Bitcoin has to reach a certain level of adoption around the world, making able to just live with Bitcoin, and the market cap has to grow at least few times larger to be able to stable the price, of course, I want that to happen, we'll all popping champagne on private cruise, but it's not going to happen that fast, and many things could happen before it |
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My investment in Bitcoin has almost reached my target retirement fund amount, which I can put the money in some boring index fund to generate enough passive income for the rest of my life.
However, I don't want to sell all my Bitcoin at once, I'm a strong believer in Bitcoin, and think the future is bright, however, I must secure my profit as well, btw, I'm invested about 99% of my wealth in Bitcoin.
One exit plan that I came up was:
Sell 10% of my BTC once it hit my target amount, sell 20% on next year, 30%... and so on.
Illustrate: If I have 100BTC, sell 10BTC first year, sell 18BTC (20% of the 90BTC) next year...etc.
This exit plan still gives a lot of weight in Bitcoin, which means I'm still going to have a high-risk portfolio for next few years, the pros are, I believe Bitcoin value can multiply.
So what'll be your exit plan if you've had enough Bitcoin to live the rest of your life?
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