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1  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Announcing Project Invictus: a P2P Exchange Collaboration on: June 12, 2013, 05:00:15 PM
might be relevant - http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1g3xlx/wip_a_very_preliminary_p2p_exchange_demo_using/cagjp1i
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Ripple Giveaway! on: May 10, 2013, 06:45:25 AM
raXUJNzu91whv9ZysvjCDRGeNxoKzjPha6
3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LTC / YAC Exchange in Google Docs! on: May 10, 2013, 05:47:10 AM
sell 500 @ 16LTC/1k

EDIT: sold to txmasut
4  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: [BOUNTY 2.0 BTC] Python2.X encoding problems in windows - Please Help on: April 29, 2013, 11:12:06 PM
Beware that sys.argv[] passed arguments are "ascii" (so you must decode(locale) first to get unicode) and every unicode you pass to windows in non-obvious ways, such as popen arguments, but even CreateProcessW, must be encoded to multibyte (sys.getfilesystemencoding() is reasonably portable for that). Doing:

Code:
Popen(['msg.exe', '*', '/server:127.0.0.1', unicode(sys.argv[1].decode(locale.getpreferredencoding()))])

Is wrong (python will try to convert to mbcs, but with ascii source encoding). Generally one should be careful with win32api args, and env variables (including cmdline). Everything else in python is unicode....

I was able to get it to work in some contexts but not others.  When I got it to work from the command line, I wasn't able to get it working from the settings file, when set from the File->Settings menu.  But also I wasn't sure if the encoding was hitting the file correctly.  There was just so many combinations...

Also, it worked with some unicode, and not others.


To demonstrate the dialog bug:

Code:
  File "armoryqt.py", line 716, in openSettings
    dlgSettings = DlgSettings(self, self)
  File "C:\BitcoinArmory-master\BitcoinArmory-master\qtdialogs.py", line 10073, in __init__
    '(%s)' % BTC_HOME_DIR, size=2)
  File "C:\BitcoinArmory-master\BitcoinArmory-master\qtdefines.py", line 212, in __init__
    self.setText(txt, **kwargs)
  File "C:\BitcoinArmory-master\BitcoinArmory-master\qtdefines.py", line 215, in setText
    text = unicode(text)
UnicodeDecodeError: 'ascii' codec can't decode byte 0xe9 in position 51: ordinal not in range(128)

Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "armoryqt.py", line 716, in openSettings
    dlgSettings = DlgSettings(self, self)
  File "C:\BitcoinArmory-master\BitcoinArmory-master\qtdialogs.py", line 10073, in __init__
    '(%s)' % BTC_HOME_DIR, size=2)
  File "C:\BitcoinArmory-master\BitcoinArmory-master\qtdefines.py", line 212, in __init__
    self.setText(txt, **kwargs)
  File "C:\BitcoinArmory-master\BitcoinArmory-master\qtdefines.py", line 215, in setText
    text = unicode(text)
UnicodeDecodeError: 'ascii' codec can't decode byte 0xe9 in position 51: ordinal not in range(128)

Once again, we're trying to convert mbcs string without specifying source encoding (ie wherever the string comes from should be decode('mbcs') first).

Seems like Qt suffers from same behaviour (mbcs strings are treated as ascii).

All of this madness probably stems from the fact that mbcs is only subset of utf16.

Partial fix for command line:
https://github.com/wyuzhe/BitcoinArmory/commit/fd7ff04bd0b343ad119980c85996840803771a1d
5  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: [BOUNTY 2.0 BTC] Python2.X encoding problems in windows - Please Help on: April 29, 2013, 11:00:54 PM
In my case it appears to be utf8/codepage confusion:

After setting:

DEFAULT_ENCODING = locale.getpreferredencoding()

in armoryengine.py:89, it no longer complains about non-existent --satoshi-datadir

Furthermore, popen works as expected:

Code:
import sys
import locale
from subprocess import *
Popen(['msg.exe', '*', '/server:127.0.0.1', sys.argv[1].decode(locale.getpreferredencoding()).encode(sys.getfilesystemencoding())])

Shows it exactly in popup as on commandline.
6  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 26, 2013, 03:39:26 PM
yeah thats fine. i guess i will have to ask him how claiming to send 13 btc proves he has 24k btc in a different thread since/if he is going to cover his actions here.

Get a life, Goat, rpietila is our token bull.

This is the internet, nobody gives a crap about your "truth". If it is on the Internet it, everything is true. Entertainment (especially when combined with educational) value is what ultimately matters.

I think rpietila is very close to establishing cult of personality. What MP achieves with mental coercion, rpietila does using humour, and with ease.
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is MLM ideal for bitcoin? on: April 24, 2013, 04:12:53 PM
Is Multi-Level Marketing ideal for bitcoin?

I found a MLM website using BTC, but before I join it, I want to ask fellows in this forum, why wasn't any popular MLM service before?

any idea?

There were quite a few, google pirateat40 Smiley

Affiliate marketing is equivalent of real world MLM (where some actual product is offered, otherwise its just a ponzi).

Of course it's obnoxious and spammy, but hey, it works wonders for gambling stuff like bitvegas.
8  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanitygen: Vanity bitcoin address generator/miner [v0.22] on: April 15, 2013, 04:02:27 PM
I can't get the oclminer to work at all. Vantiygen works, but oclgen just hangs indefinitely.

Hmm, the hang problem has been reported earlier in the thread. It's odd oclminer does not hang as well, because AMD SDK dlls are overriden in exactly same fashion...

I presume

Code:
oclvanitygen64.exe -vv -d x:y 1blah

does not print anything and just hangs?

So far only catalyst 13.2 + win7 64 has been reported to work. Also try deleting opencl.dll in the current directory.
9  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanitygen: Vanity bitcoin address generator/miner [v0.22] on: April 15, 2013, 01:29:16 PM
Even with that file in the directory I don't get anything. I'm running Windows 8, by the way.

Seems like curl does not load cacert.pem under windows for some reason, I'll try to fix & rebuild once i'll get access to windows machine. On linux it seems to work, though:

Code:
# ./catalystwrap ./oclvanityminer -v -d 0:1 -u https://vanitypool.appspot.com/ -a 14kCFssNkH8SsXdCu8aW7AuLusQwrBDsk2
./oclvanityminer: /usr/lib/libOpenCL.so.1: no version information available (required by ./oclvanityminer)
* About to connect() to vanitypool.appspot.com port 443 (#0)
*   Trying 173.194.70.141...
* Connected to vanitypool.appspot.com (173.194.70.141) port 443 (#0)
* successfully set certificate verify locations:
*   CAfile: /etc/ssl/certs/ca-certificates.crt
  CApath: none
* SSL connection using ECDHE-RSA-RC4-SHA
* Server certificate:
* subject: C=US; ST=California; L=Mountain View; O=Google Inc; CN=*.appspot.com
* start date: 2013-03-27 13:24:05 GMT
* expire date: 2013-12-31 15:58:50 GMT
* subjectAltName: vanitypool.appspot.com matched
* issuer: C=US; O=Google Inc; CN=Google Internet Authority
* SSL certificate verify ok.
> GET /getWork HTTP/1.1
Host: vanitypool.appspot.com
Accept: */*

< HTTP/1.1 200 OK
< Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8
< Date: Mon, 15 Apr 2013 13:24:19 GMT
< Server: Google Frontend
< Cache-Control: private
< Transfer-Encoding: chunked
<
* Connection #0 to host vanitypool.appspot.com left intact
Device: Scrapper
Vendor: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (1002)
Driver: 1016.4
Profile: FULL_PROFILE
Version: OpenCL 1.2 AMD-APP (1016.4)
Max compute units: 2
Max workgroup size: 256
Global memory: 268435456
Max allocation: 134217728
OpenCL compiler flags: -DDEEP_PREPROC_UNROLL -DVERY_EXPENSIVE_BRANCHES -DDEEP_VLIW -DAMD_BFI_INT -DCATALYST_WORKAROUND
Loading kernel binary dd8ff274de8e0f156d9062519e8ab3ba.oclbin
Grid size: 1024x512
Modular inverse: 512 threads, 1024 ops each
Available bounties:
Pattern: "1XXXXXXX" Reward: 0.088063 Value: 0.000002 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Fizzisist" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Satan666" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1kArLMaRx" Reward: 1.600000 Value: 0.000001 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1111Wish" Reward: 0.320000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "123456789" Reward: 0.008800 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1ALiCECiLA" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1AUSTRALiA" Reward: 0.720000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Anonymous" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1BrownFox" Reward: 0.008800 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Casascius" Reward: 0.720000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Konichiwa" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1LazyDog1" Reward: 0.008800 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Mercedes" Reward: 0.008000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Porsche1" Reward: 0.008000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Rastafari" Reward: 0.480000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1RedCross" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1RedQueen" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1STEELERS" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1SatoshiNak" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Saturday" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1SiLkRoAd" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1SkRRJyTC" Reward: 0.160000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1SoDesuNe" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1TeraVPS" Reward: 0.016000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1ThankYou" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Thousand" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Thursday" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Universe" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Washing1" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Wednesday" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1WiKiLEAKS" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1ZhouTong" Reward: 0.480000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1currency" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1qwertyuiop" Reward: 1.200000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Batch of 31, total value: 0.000002 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1STEQUALD" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1BitSnitch" Reward: 0.040000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "123456789" Reward: 0.118493 Value: 0.000002 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1gSiLVER" Reward: 0.223200 Value: 0.000004 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1TheDoctor" Reward: 0.400000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Casascius" Reward: 3.200000 Value: 0.000001 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1swhitt7" Reward: 0.086400 Value: 0.000002 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Coinbets" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000002 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1MrCoinMan" Reward: 0.160000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1ThePiachu" Reward: 0.800000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1burrito" Reward: 0.120000 Value: 0.000002 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "17Strykes" Reward: 0.064000 Value: 0.000001 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1whisker" Reward: 0.008000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1aantonop" Reward: 0.600000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1bitpoin" Reward: 0.012000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1AntjeDahm" Reward: 0.320000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1MoLeCuLaR" Reward: 0.120000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1DanieLRH" Reward: 0.088680 Value: 0.000002 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1tigereye" Reward: 0.880000 Value: 0.000000 BTC/Gkey
Pattern: "1Satoshi" Reward: 0.080000 Value: 0.000002 BTC/Gkey
Searching for pattern: "1gSiLVER" Reward: 0.223200 Value: 0.000004 BTC/Gkey
Prefix difficulty:       51529903411245 1gSiLVER
Difficulty: 51529903411245

Total value for current work: 0.000004 BTC/Gkey
Using OpenCL prefix matcher
[1.27 Mkey/s][total 31981568][Prob 0.0%][50% in 325.9d]

It is probably looking for the ca file on some weird path, you can try using http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/sysinternals/bb896645.aspx to figure out the place where it is looking (if at all).

For now, you can use only the standalone ocl miner on windows.
10  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanitygen: Vanity bitcoin address generator/miner [v0.22] on: April 15, 2013, 02:50:26 AM
I get a "Peer certificate cannot be validated with given CA certificates" error. Help?

HTTPS vanitypool i suppose. You need http://curl.haxx.se/ca/cacert.pem in a working directory where you launch the oclvanityminer.
11  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanitygen: Vanity bitcoin address generator/miner [v0.22] on: April 13, 2013, 09:09:31 AM
That's awesome! Original oclvanitygen.exe ended with APPCRASH for me but your oclvanitygen64.exe works very well! I went from 950 Kkey/s to 26.11 Mkey/s (Radeon HD 7970) and 22.1 Mkey/s (Radeon HD 7950).

My platform: Windows 7 Pro SP1 64-bit, AMD Catalyst 13.2.

Good to hear it works on actual graphic cards! (I've tested only on AMD A4-3400 APU).

Could someone please test on OSX, I dont have access to Apple machine.
12  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanitygen: Vanity bitcoin address generator/miner [v0.22] on: April 10, 2013, 12:07:34 AM
Ok. win32 second try, fully rebuilt:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ikm9307wsx0ydqt/vanitygen_catalyst.zip

To build from source code:

download https://github.com/wyuzhe/vanitygen/archive/master.zip, setup dependencies, nmake -f Makefile.win32/win64 etc.

Once you'we built all the binaries (8 in total), you can wrap the result with AMD APP SDK 2.8 compiler which seems to produce correct code in case you're getting compute errors.

Beware that to get correct version of the compiler you need to download the whole SDK (200MB).

Test it against beta catalyst driver on system. In case you get a crash/your card is frozen, try removing some or all the dlls of compiler wrapper in 32/ or 64/ directory.

Wrapped version, when running with -v, should report:
Code:
Version: OpenCL 1.2 AMD-APP (1016.4)

Newer compiler versions produce incorrect results (block mining indeed unaffected - vanitygen kernel is nontrivial compared to simple sha256 one).

Detailed reports welcome as always.
13  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanitygen: Vanity bitcoin address generator/miner [v0.22] on: April 09, 2013, 04:59:05 PM
The fix does not work, I compiled from source, updated CL kernel. I used APP SDK's OpenCL.dll and and amdocl64.dll files, but unfortunately the program hangs before it even prints "Compiling kernel". It doesn't crash, it just hangs with these DLLs and huge CPU usage, but nothing.

Thanks for the feedback, AppSDK 2.8 i presume. I'll try to get windows installed on my radeon machine tomorrow (thats why win32 is now just a wild guess) and take a look. Till then, consider only the linux version.
14  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanitygen: Vanity bitcoin address generator/miner [v0.22] on: April 09, 2013, 12:02:26 PM
Warning, the link has binaries and no source. The file dates were not changed so this is likely virused up, not recompiled.

Actually, the vanitygen binaries are verbatim from official zip, plus just opencl dlls stitched in the archive. Naturally you should test on untrusted machine, as every binary code posted on forums.

For paranoid users, i'd recommend to use the linux version.

Then why does the github https://github.com/wyuzhe/vanitygen/commit/6f7fd04adc609b19520cdab4cc12d648e364adbe show that "the fix" is modified calc_addrs.cl, oclengine.c, oclvanitygen, etc which would indicate new binaries?

win32 is just downgrade of opencl compiler - no further changes made at this point.

I'll provide script to build resulting archive to avoid further implications.

I'n the meantime, I'd like to offer you 1BTC for factual evidence aforementioned archive is "virused up" - since it was created on a linux workstation, it is higly unlikely but I'd prefer to be on the safe side - I'm certainly no expert in that area. I've removed the link from my post, in case your accusation is proven to be true.
15  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanitygen: Vanity bitcoin address generator/miner [v0.22] on: April 09, 2013, 11:42:33 AM
Warning, the link has binaries and no source. The file dates were not changed so this is likely virused up, not recompiled.

Actually, the vanitygen binaries are verbatim from official zip, plus just opencl dlls stitched in the archive. Naturally you should test on untrusted machine, as every binary code posted on forums.

For paranoid users, i'd recommend to use the linux version.
16  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Vanitygen: Vanity bitcoin address generator/miner [v0.22] on: April 09, 2013, 11:29:44 AM
Hello,

I've created workaround for buggy 13.x catalyst driver, needs some testing though (especially the miner and win32).

For the impatient:
linux:
Code:
$ git clone https://github.com/wyuzhe/vanitygen.git
$ cd vanitygen
$ make oclvanitygen
$ ./oclvanitygen -vv -D x:y 1Blah

In case you get odd output like:
Code:
Match idx: 0
CPU hash: 0ecfec41290a506e784a4521597213398abf9a98
GPU hash: 08e030855f47c3141a5808d8767a89562ec5c655
Found delta: 497669 Start delta: 1

It means the compiler backend is still outputting broken code (although it compiles). To fix that try:

Code:
./catalystwrap ./oclvanitygen -vv -D 0:0 1ov

Windows users can try applying the dll override script in the directory of official vanitygen binaries [edit: link with resulting archive removed due security concerns].

The gory details:

https://github.com/wyuzhe/vanitygen/commit/6f7fd04adc609b19520cdab4cc12d648e364adbe

In short, ATI LLVM-IR backend miscompiles stuff like:

Code:
uint x, b, c;
x += (a < b)

The boolean result of (a < b) is expressed as byte (u8 in crash report), but VLIW architectures know no such thing. Workaround is using artificially complex expressions which cannot be readily expressed as setcc in llvm ir (but will be optimized away during R600 lowering anyway).
17  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MtGox API on: April 03, 2013, 02:20:31 PM
agreed, someone needs to make a goo reliable exchange that offers some basic features and doesnt crash or have problems everytime alot of users use the site. I swear mtgox is just sitting on a pile of money instead of doing anything and improving and because of this they will loose marketshare and will be known as the early empire of bitcoin exchanges.Like in history with egypt being the first great empire that is what mtgox will be the first empire that few know about and few care about.

They can't. Any significant changes to trading engine (such as disabling partially-covered bid/ask ladder feature, coding the whole thing in pure C++ instead of php/mysql etc) will result *huge* outcry from everyone because fundamental rules will change.

Also, goxlag keeps HFT bots at bay, sorta.
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Timekoin on: August 26, 2012, 05:04:26 AM
I'm curious myself how sybil attacks are prevented. Apparently there is nothing stopping me posing as millions of different identities/miners. From the looks of it, this does not appear to be implementation of the POS scheme either. If this is something novel, would the OP mind describing how it is supposed to work?
19  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Next best coin to mine after ASIC takes over bitcoin? on: August 25, 2012, 08:44:56 PM
Once again you make more money selling shovels then mining yourself.

BFL could do that and make a couple million USD over the next year or they could sell the rigs and make a couple million USD on day 0 and now the miners take all the future risk.
6 months later they can then can cut their prices 50% and sell another couple million of the same rigs at half the price.
6 months later they can then they can cut their prices 50% again and sell another couple million USD worth of  rigs at 25% of the original price.
6 months later they can then they can cut their prices 50% again and sell another couple million USD worth of rigs at 12.5% of the original price.

If some competitor comes along they will be looking to maximize the return on their huge NRE so while each company may have to reduce their prices somewhat a price war hurts both companies and it is the miners who benefit.  The markup on the actual chip (not design, NRE, etc) but the actual chip is 10,000%+.  So years and years from now BFL could be selling the same chips (now maybe 1/20th of the original price on day 0).  Eventually they move to a new process (i.e 45nm) and start the game all over again.

It is much more profitable to sell shovels and anyone who has enough funds to be in that position already knows that.

Market-wise your points are valid, assuming they do have that long term foresight, but you've missed one of my arguments - the initial shock of 50-100 times more hashpower is unprecedented.

My assumption was to initially use the hash-power to cover their NRE asap (we're talking 2-8 weeks after 25btc drop to avoid public outrage). They already have the money from preorders, remember? The chips must be manufactured in huge batches to be cost effective.

Another point is to drive the cost of mining in a controlled manner. Under your scenario, they'll equip 10% of miners and create huge demand ripple in the 90% who are out of the league now. My naive economic ignorance calls for *huge* price increases, to avoid more obscure pre-orders. This might be indeed more profitable than stalling the delivery by their mining, but only under the assumption their production will be *continuous* which I somewhat doubt.

Oh, or maybe some more preorders and months-long deliveries, for you know what :)

Either your or mine way, you'll end up with something akin to Intel (historically), until AMD and Motorola shows up :)

Note that I'm not implying that intentions of BFL are evil, on the contrary. Who's first to the market, and with good PR, wins, as it should be.

A lot of people have problem with entire ASIC scenario though - because up until now bitcoin was more or less commodity hardware (FPGAs are reprogrammable after all :) and thus not that *much* of waste of resources.
(Pure energy-efficiency appears to be opposite, carbon footprint of manufacture is unknown...).

Now the market is cornered into producing pretty-much-useless-except-bitcoin-which-also-get-obsoleted-fast-by-innovation machines, just because the task to be solved is strictly matter of dedicated silicon, rather than household items which can serve multiple purposes.

scrypt/bcrypt is *far* from perfect, but solving tasks suited for CPUs with high memory bandwith seems to be an alternate step in a nice direction - far in the future it's nice to have competing big CPU manufacturers, rather than clendestine asics (which are *years* behind CPU architectures anyway). It moves forward whole general computing, not just bitcoin mining.
20  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Next best coin to mine after ASIC takes over bitcoin? on: August 25, 2012, 07:41:23 PM
Why would it be a monopoly?  Monopoly tend not to survive in free markets and there are no real barriers to entry other than NRE costs.  While the NRE costs are substantial if there is enough money to be made mining competitors will jump in.  If there isn't enough money to support competitors than the chain is a economic dead end anyways and the monopolist is likely the one taking the biggest loss.

Selling shovels to gold miners has traditionally been more profitable and less risky then mining for gold.  BFL understands this and future players will too.  The turn around on capital is much faster and ROI% much higher.  The equipment seller offloads all the difficulty, future price, better competitor offering risks on the miner.  All that makes it much easier to project cashflow which makes it easier to get venture capital funding.  

To put it into your analogy, youre not selling shovels, but gold mines. Likely some where gold ore veins are 100x more rich than commonly found anywhere else.

So, what follows is ballparks, but quite likely wild-ass speculation if we're to assume BFL are ROI driven rather than unicorn pixie dust people make it to be.



  • ✓ Sell hardcopy fpga asics (initial investment is cheap, like $50k, there are dozens of vendors already), to build trust and spread hype
  • ✓?The first batch of truly ASIC hardware preordered is capable of running at 10THash, ie less than 50% of network.
  • Once you have the next-gen asics completed, abuse mine with your 40% hashpower for a while. This will most likely happen at block# 210000 to cover the fact in the ensuing panic. The profit might be as high $500k-$2M.
  • Assume you'll be able to cash out $1M, just by outpacing other mininers for a while and immediately selling off during shortage. This will probably cover large chunk of investment into pure ASIC core.
  • Now, you've successfuly monopolised mining market because you were first to pull off this scenario. Because everything else than your ASIC core is useless, market will closely follow your pricing model.
  • At this moment, it makes sense to sell your hardware at prices right above the profit line of mining with it yourself. This price is highly inflated due to bitcoin shortage introduced above.
  • A challenger might appear in the 45nm or 32nm fab process, but you have a good jumpstart to keep your monopoly just by upgrading the fab process. Competitors have to design their core from scratch.
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