Yeah, I remember.  Now what's the point of this exactly?

I'm skeptical sure.  But this is a good sign.  And definitely reason to keep connected to what's going on there.  If everyone just throws their hands in the air and lets off on the interest and pressure then there is definitely less reason to hope for something good.

Well I have some of my own records and screen grabs but still...  There would be loads of thieves out there trying to fabricate the same stuff if that was all that was needed.  The best bet would be to have someone at gox verify with actual account information.  But at this point, who would trust even that?

This is the only thread anywhere that doesn't increase the extreme discomfort I have right now.  I'm extremely skeptical this could actually work out.  But I really appreciate the sentiment.

Hey look!  My theory is already beginning.  ...Even BTCEFORE withrawals have become active again:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1yh9mr/are_your_usds_stuck_on_mtgox_congratulations/

 

Well sure.  But limits like these are not exactly new to exchanges.  I agree it would be peachy if the world was totally unlimited. But nobody in this world operates like that. The fiat world is ALL about those kind of limitations.  A run on a fiat bank is only a problem to the consumer because, literally, they don't have that kind of money in their vaults to give out all at once.  It's a system build on deception.  Now it's possible, but not likely, that bitcoin exchange houses are totally responsible and trustworthy and actually have the BTC and USD to back up all of their accounts.  In which case, they could afford, in the short term, to just let people withdraw unlimited amounts freely, because they'd make money on the transaction fees.  But then if all investors pulled completely out, there would be no longterm for them.  They'd be done, and when times are bad, I think it would be in their favor to implement any limitations that would slow the possibility of that worst case scenario. It's probably also good for consumers because I'd assume the faster the ship is sinking the more likely someone inside will be to hastily "off" with funds illegally.  Still, I agree with you, I believe when times are good the more freely people can access and exchange their funds the better off the exchange will be because it provides a better experience for the consumer.  Free market principles.

Thanks Mr.TheJoint
I think you are making some false assumptions here.  Seems GOX has a pretty high level of operational latitude here.  Going on the stated circumstances... So at some point they determined that there was a problem that required them to hault withdrawals.  Reportedly there are withdrawal orders that were placed at this time that have not yet been fulfilled.  Seems right. Sure. I would expect as much.

So they're basically just late on fullfilling those. Under the claimed circumstances I don't know that has any other impact or implications on the situation legal or otherwise.  I think they have the right to take the time they need to solve the problem without additional cost to them.  Don't they?  So:
- it's possible they will actually fulfill said withdrawals first prior to newer withdrawal orders.
- it also seems possible that, under the circumstances they could void withdrawal orders that occurred at that time, claiming that they were part of the problem, and under newly set withdrawal limits, ask those people to kindly reorder their withdrawals.

Either way, I'm not sure why any of that would make my originally posted theory impossible. My scenario could still play out.

  It's odd but true that people often won't get off their butts and get something done simply because it's inconvenient.

Longterm trust is going to be an ongoing issue yes.  When GOX's prices and services are reasonably close in value to other exchanges why would you stay with them when peace of mind has been so lacking in the past? Well you probably won't.  But people don't need trust if they gain something. People who don't trust non organic food growers, but they still buy their food.  People who don't trust the oil industry could ride a bike, but they still buy gas.  Sooo...

In the short term, after you've withdrawn your limit and are waiting to withdraw more, people will realize there is working "buy low GOX/sell high elsewhere" scenario happening. then...

> When people buy the price will rise.
> When the price is high, due to trust issues, people will sell & the price will drop.
> When their price drops people will buy & the cycle will repeat.

Just ideas and opinions so far.  Of course these don't make my theory impossible. Successful people build their careers on proving ideas and opinions wrong Give me something solid that's not open for debate. Such as, its actually illegal, or mathematically impossible, etc. 

Clearly the current situation for GOX is the biggest threat they've ever experienced, the primary problem being massive loss of trust.  However, under the circumstances, there is a very simple way for them to quickly reestablish trust and hasten their full recovery.  All they need to do is:

Ensure (via low withdrawal limits) that a "run" on mtgox cannot quickly occur.  The moment people realize they can successfully withdraw even a small amount from GOX and sell at a higher price somewhere else (arbitrage), GOX will see healthy deposits, their price will quickly rebound and all will be as it was.  MTGOX returns again.  Not a surprise. They've done it before.


I'll send BTCitcoin to anyone who can provide clear reason this isn't possible.

....uh. Where have you been.  They were out of operation LONG ago.

What did your emails look like?

I just got this.
On Jun 24, 2011, at 1:24 AM, Mt.Gox account recovery service <info@mtgox.com> wrote:






Dear user,

Your account recovery request has been updated.

Please follow this link (the same as in the previous email) to see your recovery request status, if it was successful or not.

https://claim.mtgox.com/?claim_id=  [deleting details incase they are personal]


Best regards,
The Mt.Gox team


This email is an automated email resulting from the submission of the form on https://claim.mtgox.com/ and verification by our team           

Hmm.  Sounds a likely possibility.

...At least it appears to be.  The URL I'm using is
https://claim.mtgox.com/
It's giving me a login dialog but there are no other clear identifiers suggesting it's what it says it is.  And I don't see anywhere that mtGox has actually acknowledged that it's up or posted a link.

I'm waiting till they do.

Or until one of you can verify that your login and claim (user account reclamation) was successful.

Uh. I'm not sure where you are going with that.  Seems irrelevant.  No doubt that most closed clients would use the name bitcoin.  


I see companies putting competing clients out, and people using them even just out of curiosity to start.  A few years from now it seems probable that there could be dozens of privately owned clients and one that is greatly gaining in popularity.  Then before you know it we're headed toward centralization again, especially if the government were to get involved in the mix.

It seems that testing the worlds closed clients in emulation would be an aweful lot of work.  And successfully finding ill will would be totally dependent on the plan of the culprit and when they decided to implement the plan.  Besides if destroying confidence in the currency is part of the plan, identifying the problem in the their software may only give us the certainty to say, "yep, they're going to screw us".

On the "miners have control" point.  I'd argue that whoever controls the user experience controls the system as much as anything else.

I think you mean "...stupid enough to use...".   And I think the populous is far more concerned with convenience to make correct descisions.  And they trust in that "others are doing it".

Imperi has a great point.  People are being conditioned these days to trust in platforms.  Applications are cheap "try as you like" things with far less significance.  

Heck, most people don't even know what open source is.

The security of the Bitcoin system relies largely on the fact that it's open source.  Is there anything to stop people from taking the critical aspects of the source code and creating a functionally legit application to compete with the open source client? If not, then as with all software, the popular choice could shift overtime, to non opensource clients, causing the control over the whole Bitcoin system to shift away from the public.  
Correct?

When looking for basic security information, it seems there are a thousand threads discussing "Lost wallet", "transactions gone after restore", "HELP lost my stuff", etc.  I'm guessing this is because much of the direction on the wiki or from apparently knowledgable folks on the forum is either not clear and simple enough, have some outdated information, or is not comprehensive enough to keep us from falling into pitfalls.  After a fair amount of perusing, I'm still left with a myriad of questions and lack of confidence.

Seems, until the client is robust enough to save us from these pitfalls, we need clear and idiot proof step-by-step outlines for things like:
- how to make a wallet backup
- how to split a wallet
- how to restore a wallet


It should go on the wiki but maybe we can start that here.  Or, if you think that already exists, by all means post a link and we'll see if it's bulletproof or refine-able.  My guess is that even the very educated would benefit from following a checklist of steps when it comes to dealing with large quantities to avoid accidents. ...or so it would seem from all of the "oops" postings.

Check your messages.  I've responded to you both with a PM.

For almost a decade and a half I've been working in digital art.  I've done everything from print design to AAA video games.  My primary work is in games.  I've shipped over a dozen game titles, each of them launching across all or most of the major consoles for the time.

Got a logo you want to improve?
Website presentation weak?
Working on an app that looks kinda "blah"?
Making a mobile game?
I'm looking to help anyone who has artistic needs and can pay in Bitcoins.

Feel free to reply in the thread or send me a PM.