Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).
Actually the leftmost conservative number is 'realtime' based on last 1500 blocks mined (regardless of to which diff period they belong to) so it tries to grab some recent trend. I saw no reason adding shorter term calulations because they just add confusion to people who don't understand variance and other statistical stuff behind difficulty. After block 1500 it becomes the realtime diff estimate as you would call it because it starts to include all mined blocks in current difficulty  |
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This so confusing lately that the only thing I can state almost for sure there will be another prize rollover in this thread  |
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This is getting really entertaining gamble. At 440 USD/BTC S5 suddenly becomes money making machine. At least for a while "Money making machine" with 80% revenue going to maintaince is not even a funny If you have S5 - sell them ASAP! Revenue to maintenance is unimportant, price is. I purchased a bunch of S5 at 0.0028 which at 440 usd/btc means almost 2% per day from mining, so I don't plan to sell right now ;-) |
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This is getting really entertaining gamble. At 440 USD/BTC S5 suddenly becomes money making machine. At least for a while |
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Let's do the math and do not mix hashnest case with real efficiency. If bitmain or whoever has access to cheap electricity, say 3 cents/kWh, they can have 150 days ROI even at 1.7 exahash (about 250mil diff). At 1 cent/kWh the breakeven hashrate is at 2 exahashes.
So the hashnest will have to go down (at charged 0.09 USD/kWh) but it in doesn't mean miners should be physically shut down.
edit: I am talking about S7
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Breakeven point for S7 like machine with purchase costs at $100/THs,5 cents electricity, and 150 days ROI (till halving) is somewhere at 1.5 exahash. If the hardware producers can setup one THs at costs of about $50, which I believe they can, breakeven point moves to 2.3 exahash, about 300mil in difficulty terms. Plenty of space.
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As I am thoroughfully watching oil related news I came across this article. As Kuwait badly depends on oil price it's government budget is in deep trouble so they are considering removing subsidies. You should possibly calculate this into your plan. "the government wants to raise electricity charges from 2 Kuwaiti fils per kilowatt currently to 5 fils per KW for the first 3,000 KW; 10 fils for between 3,000 and 6,000KW and 15 fils for consumption above 6,000 KW. " http://www.arabianoilandgas.com/article-15246-kuwait-reviews-bid-to-slash-fuel-subsidies/ |
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I think the nature of this betting game has so high level of probability (or variance if you want) that sticking to exact number to win a prize could cause to have no winner for unwanted amount of periods. I think it's better fun if there is always some winner.
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6 blocks between 396986-396991 mined within 11 minutes just now, that doesn't look like correction. It's insane (variance factor included  ) |
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I don't see much correlation between price and hashrate. Sure hashrate follows price but not vice versa. What we are seeing is just info that costs of hardware producers are much lower than previously thought so they can either ROI before halving or the new tech plugged in has so low consumption it will survive halving.
Number of daily mined bitcoins is fixed and represents about 2-3% daily traded volume on exchanges so I don't think this would be the reason of price crash.
What I can imagine as a reason of price crash after halving is that this hardware deployed was meant to be shortlived just to squeeze every penny from this opportunity which would mean brutal slowing down of block generation thus making the network unusable for payments. And I doubt chinese guys care about lofty ideas.
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For referrence, is this cloud mining profitable or not? How many ghs will I need to actually get profit from this? I want to try this but as I he a bad experience with cloud minings I am really having second thoughts.
Do not buy anything before understanding simple math behind the calculations. If you do your math you'll know that you will not get your investment back. |
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Effect of 50% difficulty growth and bitcoin reward halving is the same so basically with this diff jump we will be experiencing reward halving which just took one month to happen.
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I think they are waiting for S4 death confirmation by difficulty increase because currently just small jump in BTC price (to 390) would make S4 profitable again.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but now 1THS of S5 bring around 0.00418979 BTC/TH/day (i'm using pps number). that make a ROI of 95 days (pretty nice) .
But with the next diff increase income per day goes down from 19% so it will be 0.0033 BTC/TH/day . That make a ROI of 631 days (for me equals never ROIed)
Knowing than next diff is calculated on the time it took to find the last 2016 blocks, even if some big player switch off his pool today there is no chance to trick the diff calculations .
So am I correct to assume than :
either S5 is dead in the next 5 days ?
or BTC price has to increase by at least 20% to keep the S5 running .
There is some market behaviour i don't understand right now or somebody is betting on BTC price increase ??
PS : I can't help it thinking something smell fishy and S5 market price is manipulated (why would it be buyers on the market, knowing the numbers above ? )
Your S5 PPS number is theoretical yield BEFORE deducting maintenance fee. Hashnest S5 currently makes 0.00418979 - 0.003 daily fee = 0.0011 net BTC/TH/day. The ROI at S5 market price 0.1/TH is about 90 days, so that's correct anyway With next diff increase, say 19% the net earnings will drop to 0.00339 - 0.003 = 0.00039 net BTC/TH/day which will make theoretical ROI drop to about 270 days so despite your ROI calculation is too pesimistic it is true anyway because halving will happen in about 160 days. However it doesn't mean S5 is dead in 5 days, the earnings will be still positive so there is a lot of time for speculation, because if BTC price goes up S5 ROI will improve. S5 will be dead at current BTC price when difficulty grows another 11% after 19%. Then the net daily earnings will drop to zero. PS And don't try to understand market, it always behaves irrationaly |
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There was a huge drop on price for S7 in the last 24 hours or so , do we know the reason for it?
Next diff change will be about 20% which will practically mean the S7 will not survive halving at current BTC/USD price, in other words it will never ROI. this is assuming the diff will stay the same, which is very unlikely. halving will bring diff down, or everybody will mine at a loss. Yes very probably the difficulty will drop after halving when old tech gear will get shut down. However it seems some new low consumption technology is being plugged in which won't have to be shut down after halving and it's share on total hashrate will be so high the diff drop will be within single digit percent number. Anyway will be fun to watch. |
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There was a huge drop on price for S7 in the last 24 hours or so , do we know the reason for it?
Next diff change will be about 20% which will practically mean the S7 will not survive halving at current BTC/USD price, in other words it will never ROI. |
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I think the cutest pick is skuser at +20.9% I thought of going high but decided it was too high, lets hope so? He should have gone with the 'The Price Is Right' strategy and said "What's the highest bid, Bob? 19.9? I'll go with 20.0" okay skuser 20.9 tried to do a smart pick. so I will top off at 21.9 above that it is a rollover. I do believe it is fair I also think he was very close to missing cutoff . I am betting just for fun so If I should be winner I will let the prize stay in the betting fund |
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S5 prices are nicely adjusting the cruel reality however S7 hashes keep being brutally overpriced. There will be huge drop in price probably only after people realize that at this speed of difficulty growth the S7 will NOT survive halving.
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You are at the start of new period, there is no way to have reliable number now. I own nextdifficulty.com so I can only tell you that conservative estimate is saying +10%, which means last 1500 blocks have been found so fast that if nothing changes the difficulty will have to grow by 10%. However I expect the pace of finding blocks will soon slow down. What about ROI for cloudming on hashnest on your site, why is is still not showing ? Is their api still not fixed ? Unfortunately not and I doubt it will ever be again... |
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