Hi there,

I posted this like one month ago. Having one month passed, nice to look at this post again:

Although in such a low market, probably nobody cares about ethereum anymore ,
(and this low crypto-market was expected as I said somewhere else. 
Without creating a real value (and I mean "real") , btc is doomed to fail , but people here are too young and exuberant to care much about this)

nevertheless it is good to look back at this post to have a better understanding

I started this post on March 5, asking why eth/btc ratio is systemically falling. Some said it was just ups and downs of market and Ethereum will rise again. I think now it is safe to say (having the last 2.5 months) that Ethereum will never rise again, unless a very substantial thing happen in market (and to Ether).

My observation back then was correct and Ethereum was on a roll-off road . Now having looked back, it is pretty obvious what happened:

In the beginning of this year, we had a ICO-bubble, everybody bought Ether to participate in so many existing ICOs. That raised the price of Ethereum big time. later this year (starting from Feb 1) the cypto market goes into recession (i.e. not many ICOs or not much interest in them) while a lot of Ether was on the hand of ICO-holders. They also have their own costs and needs. So they started selling their Ethers, while there was no buyer. This pushed the price of Ether more and more down. Basically the same usual story when a lot of sellers exist but few buyers.

Nowadays, ether is not so hot anymore and among other altcoin is relatively falling (in respect to BTC) and all together (with BTC) falling because crypto is not in the spotlight anymore (partially due to new market turbulence because of the ongoing trade-war, but also partially due to not delivering a real value by crypto).

What I missed here, is somebody who back then on March 5 could have come up with a good explanation for this. But there was none. Pity.
After that, I rarely come to this forum.

Thanks for sharing this picture. Actually I was also looking for some data in this field to share.
My background is not finance, but I feel this is a MAJOR issue.

We don't know what " whales" like or not, maybe they have already cashed out.
So let's put them out of equations. We can just talk about ourselves.

Regarding this graph, I can raise some questions:

1) Is nowadays the transaction-fee more important to the miners or btc reward? If btc-reward is more important (right now 12.5btc/block) which is most likely the case, then if the electricity bill becomes more expensive that the btc-reward in most/majority of the democratic-countries (definitely not Venezuela  but China included. Not democratic though, but China is too big to be ignored  ),  it might be so that the minors just shut-down their mining-machines temporarily until the prices go high again! this might lead to a blockage of the btc-network and this will lead most likely to even lower prices of btc. The lower the price the more miners go out and it becomes even worse (please tell me it is not the case). I don't think relying on not-democratic countries (or very tiny-ones) can fix this. Besides in near future, they don't have the potential to support the network.

2) This is also a fact and definitely miners would consider how profitable the mining will be in the future, when you never get a guarantee for a minimum price of btc. Because the electricity-bills and the cost of machines are not paid in btc, but in fiat currencies. So we might expect less investing in mining in the future (please tell me otherwise, if you have a counter arguments)

How do you know that?
Sure! You might have already made a lot of profit from that volatility. But this time there is absolutely no guarantee for BTC to rise again.
BTC value is just in the mind of people (it has almost absolutely no intrinsic value. All those tokens/ICO out there, maybe just 1% has led to real success).
If people's general opinion about BTC turns over (I mean people around the world, especially in Asia), there is no return back for BTC.

People rushed into buying BTC because they saw its price was exponentially going high (and that made the price even higher).
Not anymore! It has now ups and downs , almost unpredictably.
People's opinion has changed drastically. Some very big financial organization have warned their customers about the big fall.

I mean I hope otherwise. But I really don't see any reason to believe it.

Well, that's easy said! There are a lot of people here who bought BTC at 1000$ or even less. For those, anything is profit. They can take risks and all they have to lose is amount of profit (that is ,  volatility on their guaranteed profit). For those who started later (and bought BTC at much higher price), I really have a hard time to imagine anyone who can "systematically" profit from volatility of BTC.
The point is everytime BTC falls, you never know if it will fall more or it will recover. Technical analysis of BTC price doesn't tell about BTC. Every time BTC falls and you buy some , you hope it will recover at least up to the same level as you bought it. But for BTC that's very hard to guarantee , especially now!!
The hype /bubble of late2017/early2018 is gone!

Thanks for the picture.

Hi BrewMaster,

My numbers might be a little up or down (within 5% accuracy), but in general sense they are correct. I double checked.
The point here is that the ethereum/bitcoin ratio is going down almost steadily.
I don't want argue here the difference percentage/relative or absolute values. I think both of us understand this.

I don't know how to add a picture to this text, otherwise I would take a snapshot of ether/bitcoin ratio from Feb-1 to today.
You can easily see it is dropping . And apart from one peak (around Feb 26), it has been almost monotonically dropping.

Fluctuation of Ethereum itself also doesn't count. Because basically we are referring here to ether/btc ratio, not the absolute price of ether itself.

(source coinmarketcap.com)
ether/bitcoin = 0.1225 Feb 1, 2018
ether/bitcoin = 0.7455 Mar 5, 2018

From 0.1225 to 0.7455, there is quite a difference.
My question (as the title says) is about this ratio. 

Hi guys,

I was wondering how to ask this concisely (not wasting your time  ).
Just in short sentence : Why does volatility/change of bitcoin differ from big altcoins like ethereum?

I mean there are so many reasons to believe that the future belongs to ethereum (or similar token/cryptocurrencies) such as
fast transaction time, smart-contract, so many ICOs out there which are based on Ether,....
but nevertheless, if we look back to the last 2 weeks , we see ethereum remained almost constant in value (versus $$) ,
but bitcoin is soaring up like crazy (and steadily  ).

Feb 10 to now : Bitcoin : 8800$  --> 11500$
Feb 10 to now : Ether   : 850$  --> 850$

I know some folks out there , would probably start talking about resistance/support or some kind of technical analysis.
But guys! technical analysis is just there to formulate what is happening in the past and try its best to predict future.
They never ever say "why" a certain asset change of value (and besides, majority believe bitcoin/crypto don't follow  usual
technical indicators).

Some people say they are big bitcoin-holders who manipulate the market. Ok!.... that's one idea!
But then it means such thing doesn't applicable to Ethereum. Right?

So any good thoughts , so that we can learn something for the next time.....