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Only people can help other people, and they have to choose to do so. Blockchain technology can facilitate aid, remittances and microloans, but the culture in the developed world and middle-income states needs to step up.
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Nothing by itself can end world poverty, except a general consensus on the part of all nations that it is unacceptable, it is the greatest wrong in the world, and we need to make a conscious effort to end it. That means developing a level of empathy we simply are not hard-wired to do at this stage of our development, so it'll require a great culture advance.
Blockchain technology can facilitate transfers of small units of value, and these can empower those who decide to take action against world poverty. But until we, collectively, have the heart to fully fund and support these actions, we will always have poverty.
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Governments will have to deal with non-sovereign currencies very soon. You can't wish away such problems as money laundering and terrorist financing by saying, "It can be done using these things, so these things must be against the law. And because they're against the law, they'll cease to exist." Realistically, the world's governments will need to find a policy that allows for the legitimate use of cryptocurrencies. They will also need to make changes to the way they form and support monetary policy so that their own fiat money doesn't become irrelevant. On the flip side, cryptocurrency issuers will need to provide some means of responding to the civilized world's legitimate concerns about criminal activity. I wrote a couple Medium articles on this topic. https://medium.com/@WilliamFreedman/whats-so-special-about-being-sovereign-f64a6765a7f4https://medium.com/@WilliamFreedman/poor-misunderstood-bis-needs-a-hug-28c92a5de99d |
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If you call going from $1000 to $19,000 in a year then declining sharply a bubble, then sure, it's a bubble.
But if you factor in that it didn't go crashing back down to zero but hit resistance points at $10,000, $9,000 and $8,000 and is now testing $7,000, then it's deflating slowly rather than bursting.
But even if it slides all the way down to $2,000, it still almost doubled in a little over a year. I'll take that kind of bubble every day.
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That day isn't here yet, and it's not coming soon — but it is coming.
The advantages of cash are a) it can be used for micropayments and b) it's anonymous. Those are also the advantages of crypto-assets. At some point in their adoption, it will become less unusual to use these instead of paper money, and then paper money will begin to look like the more sordid option.
At that point, they will be true crypto-currencies. Until then, I'll keep calling them crypto-assets.
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In the long run I'd go with crypto-assets (not necessarily BTC).
No sovereign currency is predicated on a fixed amount of gold, nor have they been for 40 years. It's really a vestige of another time.
But people have faith in it, which is why gold defies gravity. Same can be said by crypto-assets (I've stopped calling them "currencies" because they're just not.)
So which leap of faith are you going to take? The one that comes in 12.4kg bars, or the one you can link to ApplePay?
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Why would we need regulation ?
I'm all in favor of answering cryptocurrency's critics who say this is just a way of laundering money for drug dealers and terrorists, and ICOs are just a way of running a FOMO con on gullible investors. So yes, I would like to not be associated with criminals. And that means enduring some degree of regulation. Regulation isn't necessarily a bad thing. OVER-regulation, and regulation for the sake of making work for regulators--those are bad things. But the most stable and highest-capitalized exchanges in the world are in the most vigorously regulated legal venues, and that's not a coincidence. Market capitalism works best in an environment of transparency, liquidity, and conformity to rules of the road. That being said, there are a lot of regulations that ought not apply to cryptocurrency and ICOs. Regulators need to better understand the difference between utility and security tokens, for example, and utility tokens have no business before the SEC. Central banks need to understand that, although the should and must maintain a monetary policy that keeps both unemployment and inflation at healthy rates, they will no longer OWN all the money, and they'll need to rely more on moral suasion and on buying and selling cryptocurrency as well as Treasury instruments to implement it. |
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Just getting started here, but I'm fine with earning merit.
With the reporting I've been doing on blockchain, my tokenomics blog on Medium, and the experience I've been gaining IRL, people here will eventually come to value my opinion without my having to complain about it. This board isn't my whole life and is actually just one element in my online exposure. On those other platforms, I'm much better known.
So I may be a newbie here but I'm not a newbie everywhere.
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Pardon my crude language, but there's no need to shit yourself. If I had a BTC for every time I heard about how we'd all be living in a smoking crater in an ice-encrusted hellscape ...
Bitcoin dropped $9,000. We're still here.
Trump was elected. We're still here.
North Korea got nukes. We're still here.
Great Recession. We're still here.
9/11. We're still here.
Y2K. We're still here.
Gingrich became Speaker of the House. We're still here.
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists set the Doomsday Clock to 3 minutes to midnight. We're still here.
Reagan was elected. We're still here.
Stop worrying and live your life.
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There are, at most, 20 million people who own any fraction of a bitcoin. It's accounts for roughly one-third of the market cap for the entire asset class. So let's use that as a proxy (an imperfect one to be sure) for individual ownership. That would suggest that 60 million people own crypto, but that's probably way overstated because owning one altcoin doesn't prevent you from owning another and it can be assumed that there's a huge amount of overlap. So maybe 40 million of the world's 7 billion+ people are in the game. That's right around half a percent. Who knows how many people know about it? I suppose that depends on your definition of "know". I wouldn't be surprised to learn that 1 billion people or more have *heard of* crypto. But as you move along the continuum from awareness to learning to solid knowledge to experience to expertise, I'm sure you lose an order of magnitude with each step. I'm just curious if how many percentages of all the people on earth know about Bitcoin. in my country, I think only 10% knows about it. post your opinion guys.
I think all over the world who know Bitcoin is only a small part. My country Indonesia and who know Bitcoin may be counted, I think that knows Bitcoin in my country is only 5%. probably know about the crypto currency only 5%, but the community of crypto currency consists of a much smaller number of people. Those who know can only have information from the media and that's it. |
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Thank you for that!
Money does buy happiness, up to a point. But once your shelter, sustenance, and medical needs are taken care of, as well as those of your family, and you have some left over to save for retirement and hedge against misfortune, and can provide an education for your children, and can splurge on an occasional luxury or experience, then it just becomes scorekeeping. Worse, it becomes scorekeeping in a game you play against your friends and neighbors, turning them into objects of your envy or turning yourself into an object of envy for them.
Before I die, I hope the world comes to realize what you already did.
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I don't see how. There's a hard lower limit. As soon as the inflation rate goes below zero, it then by definition becomes deflation which is, in the long or even intermediate run, unsustainable. But then again, so is hyperinflation (50% per month or more) or even just "high" inflation. The better an economy manages to stay in the sweet spot, say 2%-5% per year, the better its long-term prospects. That's why, unlike a lot of people who come to cryptocurrency from libertarian impulses, I believe in having a sound monetary policy that targets a sustainable inflation rate and a sustainable level of employment. Both these targets can and must change over time. So too can and must the tools used to implement the policy. So too the institutions. Central banks as currently organized are not evil in themselves, but they are vestiges of a fading era, and there is a risk of them overplaying their hand to try to stay relevant for another generation. But there does need to be some kind of coordination of economic goals. Unregulated markets do not have a great track record. Would it be economically sustainable if a currency is constantly undergoing disinflation? Hello, world. (Long-time lurker, first-time posting. Apologies for any errors in coding or protocol.) What's missing from this discussion is *disinflation*, a deceleration in the inflation rate rather than a reversal of it. That's what's happening now and I believe that will be the overarching story of cryptocurrency through 2018. An area dedicated to discussing the differences of these two terms and the theories supporting them. I'm looking forward to an in-depth discussion on the subject! I've noticed that confusion between the two seems to come up quite a bit on the forum, and thought it may be reasonable to dedicate a thread on the matter. Pulled from a discussion in Wall Observer
Price-Deflation is what you are used to hearing about in Bitcoin. That term is used to describe the prices of goods/services as they decrease, because the value of Bitcoin goes up. Price-Inflation is the opposite. When prices of goods/services increase because the value of Bitcoin goes down. So, when dealing with Price-Inflation or Deflation, there is an inverse relationship of price and value, in regard to goods/services and Bitcoin. Example: As the Bitcoin price goes from $10 to $20, the prices of goods/services goes down from 20 BTC to 10 BTC. As the Bitcoin price goes from $20 to $10, the prices of goods/services goes from 10 BTC to 20 BTC! Why does the price of Bitcoin go up and down? The price of BTC goes up and down based on the exchange rate, or market price, which is set by buyers and sellers, or traders. They directly trade the Bitcoin currency with all sorts of other currency, and even some with gold; the most popular being the USD (US dollar). They set the price when executing orders to buy or sell. I will get into the actual reason of why the price fluctuates in the last section.
Now that we've gone over PRICE Inflation and Deflation (which honestly, to me, is a term made popular by Keynesian's to hide the real facts, as price inflation/deflation is simply the market exchange rate, reflective of the money supply into a currency from itself and other currencies), let's go over the REAL inflation/deflation of a currency (otherwise known by many as Monetary Inflation). MoneySupply-Inflation is when the value of Bitcoin decreases when the total supply of Bitcoin increases. In our current state, this is at a generation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes. MoneySupply-Deflation will essentially never occur. It is when the value of Bitcoin increases when the total supply of Bitcoin decreases. This may happen, say, when someone loses their private key and all the BTC associated with it are lost. This effectively "makes the rest of us richer". That being said, there is a SET DECREASE in the generation rate of BTC, so you have sort of a "deflationary effect" in the value, as long as more exchange occurs for BTC at a rate which is faster than that set generation rate. When all 21 million coins are produced, the MoneySupply will be neutral, and the value will continue to increase (prices will decrease, consequently), as long as people continue to exchange in BTC. This leads me to the last section.
What determines the PRICE of Bitcoin? The VALUE of Bitcoin at a particular moment. What determines the VALUE of Bitcoin? The SUPPLY and DEMAND of Bitcoin in the economy. What determines the SUPPLY of Bitcoin? Currently, the MoneySupply-Inflation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes, and traders willing to SELL Bitcoin to BUYERS in exchange for other supplies of money (currencies).What determines the DEMAND of Bitcoin? Traders willing to BUY Bitcoin from SELLERS in exchange for other currencies. Therefore: BUYERS, SELLERS, and MONEYSUPPLY-INFLATION (miners) determine the VALUE of Bitcoin, which determines the PRICE of BTC as BUYERS and SELLERS trade based on that VALUE (or supply and demand) of Bitcoin. We don't exactly know the totality of the supply and demand. Sure, we could try and aggregate data from all the exchanges, but we will never be accurate as there are exchanges which can not be accounted for (OTC). The cool thing is that we DO know the MoneySupply rate, and we DO know the exchange rate. From this, we can determine a real value of Bitcoin when simply multiplying the two factors; a sort of inflation-adjusted view of the currency. Effectively, the quantitative analysis of supply and demand is really what the currency exchange traders attempt to accurately determine which is conveyed through buying and selling of Bitcoin, setting a VALUE via the PRICED exchange rate of the currency. On a side note, most of the big Market Makers (FX Traders) use this price movement as a way to make a profitable living, as well. Especially when price fluctuations are a consequence of hype or fear (bubbles, cliffs), not factual supply/demand data, and are wildly out of the real price range. Thus, if you analyze the proper macroeconomic data in an attempt to forecast future DEMAND for more Bitcoin (price increase), you will realize some very interesting things, and have a more accurate picture of where the price is going... Happy trading!  before I am much grateful for this knowledge, this is a very useful science for me a beginner, with this post I can learn a lot and many know about bitcoin world. |
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It could happen. I hope it doesn't. Not until there are more players than just us message board geeks. Take bitcoin frex. By itself, it's got a market cap of around $150bn. There's maybe 15m people in the world that own any. So the average hodler has $10,000 in BTC. The median adult alive today has $4,700 in total wealth--that's real estate, cattle, personal effects, inventory, cash, everything. |
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Hello, world. (Long-time lurker, first-time posting. Apologies for any errors in coding or protocol.) What's missing from this discussion is *disinflation*, a deceleration in the inflation rate rather than a reversal of it. That's what's happening now and I believe that will be the overarching story of cryptocurrency through 2018. An area dedicated to discussing the differences of these two terms and the theories supporting them. I'm looking forward to an in-depth discussion on the subject! I've noticed that confusion between the two seems to come up quite a bit on the forum, and thought it may be reasonable to dedicate a thread on the matter. Pulled from a discussion in Wall Observer
Price-Deflation is what you are used to hearing about in Bitcoin. That term is used to describe the prices of goods/services as they decrease, because the value of Bitcoin goes up. Price-Inflation is the opposite. When prices of goods/services increase because the value of Bitcoin goes down. So, when dealing with Price-Inflation or Deflation, there is an inverse relationship of price and value, in regard to goods/services and Bitcoin. Example: As the Bitcoin price goes from $10 to $20, the prices of goods/services goes down from 20 BTC to 10 BTC. As the Bitcoin price goes from $20 to $10, the prices of goods/services goes from 10 BTC to 20 BTC! Why does the price of Bitcoin go up and down? The price of BTC goes up and down based on the exchange rate, or market price, which is set by buyers and sellers, or traders. They directly trade the Bitcoin currency with all sorts of other currency, and even some with gold; the most popular being the USD (US dollar). They set the price when executing orders to buy or sell. I will get into the actual reason of why the price fluctuates in the last section.
Now that we've gone over PRICE Inflation and Deflation (which honestly, to me, is a term made popular by Keynesian's to hide the real facts, as price inflation/deflation is simply the market exchange rate, reflective of the money supply into a currency from itself and other currencies), let's go over the REAL inflation/deflation of a currency (otherwise known by many as Monetary Inflation). MoneySupply-Inflation is when the value of Bitcoin decreases when the total supply of Bitcoin increases. In our current state, this is at a generation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes. MoneySupply-Deflation will essentially never occur. It is when the value of Bitcoin increases when the total supply of Bitcoin decreases. This may happen, say, when someone loses their private key and all the BTC associated with it are lost. This effectively "makes the rest of us richer". That being said, there is a SET DECREASE in the generation rate of BTC, so you have sort of a "deflationary effect" in the value, as long as more exchange occurs for BTC at a rate which is faster than that set generation rate. When all 21 million coins are produced, the MoneySupply will be neutral, and the value will continue to increase (prices will decrease, consequently), as long as people continue to exchange in BTC. This leads me to the last section.
What determines the PRICE of Bitcoin? The VALUE of Bitcoin at a particular moment. What determines the VALUE of Bitcoin? The SUPPLY and DEMAND of Bitcoin in the economy. What determines the SUPPLY of Bitcoin? Currently, the MoneySupply-Inflation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes, and traders willing to SELL Bitcoin to BUYERS in exchange for other supplies of money (currencies).What determines the DEMAND of Bitcoin? Traders willing to BUY Bitcoin from SELLERS in exchange for other currencies. Therefore: BUYERS, SELLERS, and MONEYSUPPLY-INFLATION (miners) determine the VALUE of Bitcoin, which determines the PRICE of BTC as BUYERS and SELLERS trade based on that VALUE (or supply and demand) of Bitcoin. We don't exactly know the totality of the supply and demand. Sure, we could try and aggregate data from all the exchanges, but we will never be accurate as there are exchanges which can not be accounted for (OTC). The cool thing is that we DO know the MoneySupply rate, and we DO know the exchange rate. From this, we can determine a real value of Bitcoin when simply multiplying the two factors; a sort of inflation-adjusted view of the currency. Effectively, the quantitative analysis of supply and demand is really what the currency exchange traders attempt to accurately determine which is conveyed through buying and selling of Bitcoin, setting a VALUE via the PRICED exchange rate of the currency. On a side note, most of the big Market Makers (FX Traders) use this price movement as a way to make a profitable living, as well. Especially when price fluctuations are a consequence of hype or fear (bubbles, cliffs), not factual supply/demand data, and are wildly out of the real price range. Thus, if you analyze the proper macroeconomic data in an attempt to forecast future DEMAND for more Bitcoin (price increase), you will realize some very interesting things, and have a more accurate picture of where the price is going... Happy trading! before I am much grateful for this knowledge, this is a very useful science for me a beginner, with this post I can learn a lot and many know about bitcoin world. |
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